Cumulative stats in AO17- Nadal [9] vs. Federer [17] - F

[falstaff78]

Here are cumulative stats for Federer & Nadal for the 4 matches from round 3 to the semi final inclusive. I have included Djokovic in 2016 for the same 4 rounds, as a benchmark.

(I did an earlier version in the match thread with only Federer and Nadal.)


Overall

• Comparable strength of opposition - all three had opponents with similiar average rank and performances on hard courts in previous 52 weeks
• Federer's overall level a little higher than Nadal and a little lower than Djokovic last year - Fed won higher percentage of points (55% vs. 54%) and games (59% vs. 55%), and had a higher dominance ratio (1.32 vs. 1.26)

Serve

• Similiar success on service points 70% vs. 69%; Fed had a better first serve (78% vs. 73%) but Nadal compensated for this with a higher first serve percentage (74% vs. 64%)
• Similiar success at holding serve: Fed broken 11% of the time vs. 10%
• Fed faced BPs in fewer unique games (18% vs. 23%); but when facing BPs, Federer was broken more often (57% vs. 45%)

Return (here's where it gets interesting)

• Similiar success on winning return points (40% vs. 39%)
• However Fed translated those return points into a far higher rate of service breaks (28% vs. 20%);
• Both generated break points in a similiar % of return games (33% vs. 31%); but WHEN seeing break points, Fed broke an astounding 84% of the time vs. 64% for Nadal
• This was because Fed was super clutch on break points (+6 p.p. relative to regular return points, versus Nadal who was -2 p.p.)

Fatigue / aggression

• Fed ran vastly less overall (6.4km vs. 13.7km) and per point (7.0 vs. 12.1 meters)
• This was achieved by executing on a super aggressive mindset
• Fed hit winners on 26% of points played vs. 13% for Nadal
• Fed with higher winner to unforced error differential (+108 vs. +24)
• Fed rushed the net almost twice as often as Nadal (16% vs. 9%) and achieved great relative success considering the difference in frequencies (71% vs. 78%)

All in all, screw the stats. Who the hell knows what will really happen.....

 

[Deleted member 512391]

Thanks, man, you're doing a really good job.

 

[enlightenment]

This is surely the Ljubicic effect. If Fed continues to take chances on break points, he should win this match. In particular, at 15-40, I'd be looking for him to continue his aggressive inside-out backhands, which would rush Nadal into his backhand corner.

 

[enlightenment]

This is surely the Ljubicic effect. If Fed continues to take chances on break points, he should win this match. In particular, at 15-40, I'd be looking for him to continue his aggressive inside-out backhands, which would rush Nadal into his backhand corner.

 

[SouthernCourts]

Fantastic, thanks for this post.

 

[SouthernCourts]

Fantastic, thanks for this post.

 

[AceSalvo]

If Fed continues to take chances on break points

This has been mentioned so many times over the years only to fall on deaf ears.

 

[AceSalvo]

Aggressive Fed is a match for no one.

 

[Smasher08]

Thanks for the neat and insightful stats.

Ralph, having run more than twice as much distance overall and per point, should be comparatively wiped and slowed down.

But unfortunately I suspect he won't be.