Cumulative stats in AO17- Nadal [9] vs. Federer [17] - F


Hall of Fame
Here are cumulative stats for Federer & Nadal for the 4 matches from round 3 to the semi final inclusive. I have included Djokovic in 2016 for the same 4 rounds, as a benchmark.

(I did an earlier version in the match thread with only Federer and Nadal.)

  • Comparable strength of opposition - all three had opponents with similiar average rank and performances on hard courts in previous 52 weeks
  • Federer's overall level a little higher than Nadal and a little lower than Djokovic last year - Fed won higher percentage of points (55% vs. 54%) and games (59% vs. 55%), and had a higher dominance ratio (1.32 vs. 1.26)
  • Similiar success on service points 70% vs. 69%; Fed had a better first serve (78% vs. 73%) but Nadal compensated for this with a higher first serve percentage (74% vs. 64%)
  • Similiar success at holding serve: Fed broken 11% of the time vs. 10%
  • Fed faced BPs in fewer unique games (18% vs. 23%); but when facing BPs, Federer was broken more often (57% vs. 45%)

(here's where it gets interesting)
  • Similiar success on winning return points (40% vs. 39%)
  • However Fed translated those return points into a far higher rate of service breaks (28% vs. 20%);
  • Both generated break points in a similiar % of return games (33% vs. 31%); but WHEN seeing break points, Fed broke an astounding 84% of the time vs. 64% for Nadal
  • This was because Fed was super clutch on break points (+6 p.p. relative to regular return points, versus Nadal who was -2 p.p.)

Fatigue / aggression

  • Fed ran vastly less overall (6.4km vs. 13.7km) and per point (7.0 vs. 12.1 meters)
  • This was achieved by executing on a super aggressive mindset
  • Fed hit winners on 26% of points played vs. 13% for Nadal
  • Fed with higher winner to unforced error differential (+108 vs. +24)
  • Fed rushed the net almost twice as often as Nadal (16% vs. 9%) and achieved great relative success considering the difference in frequencies (71% vs. 78%)



All in all, screw the stats. Who the hell knows what will really happen.....


This is surely the Ljubicic effect. If Fed continues to take chances on break points, he should win this match. In particular, at 15-40, I'd be looking for him to continue his aggressive inside-out backhands, which would rush Nadal into his backhand corner.


Thanks for the neat and insightful stats.

Ralph, having run more than twice as much distance overall and per point, should be comparatively wiped and slowed down.

But unfortunately I suspect he won't be.