Cumulative stats - Nadal [4] vs. Thiem [6] - FO 2017 SF

[falstaff78]

I think this SF will be a lot closer than people are thinking. The following are cumulative stats from the first 5 rounds of RG 2017.

Nadal has utterly annihilated his opponents. However, without being noticed, Thiem has put up numbers which are almost as good. And he has done so against much stronger opposition.


Overall

• Nadal and Thiem both perfect in sets. Nadal won higher proportion of games (78% vs. 69%).
• Thiem's opponents are stronger. In the last year, on clay, vs. middle-ranked players, Thiem's opponents won 71% of their matches. Nadal's opponents won 60%. This is a huge difference.
• Nadal leading Thiem 62% to 59% in points won. But this difference is almost entirely explained by opponent quality.
  • Nadal won 72% of his service points. This was 6 p.p better than the top 20 vs. the same opponents on clay. Thiem also outperformed the top 20 by 6 p.p on serve.
  • Nadal won an ungodly 55% of return points vs. 49% for Thiem. However Thiem's opponents were servebots by comparison to Nadal's (losing 5p.p. fewer points on serve vs. top 20). So while Nadal outperformed the top 20 by 12 p.p. on return, Thiem outperformed by almost as much. (11 p.p.).

Fatigue

• Won't be an issue for either guy. Thiem has played more points, but runs less per point. As a result he has only run 1 extra km (8 vs. 7)

Aggression

• Both men with similiar numbers of errors (106. vs. 88), but Thiem with far more clean winners (181 vs. 118).
• Neither coming to the net too much.

Serve

• Thiem's first serve has been a real weapon (84% pts won). Whereas Nadal's game has been independent of his serve. If anything his second serve is even better than his first (76% vs. 69%).
• Consistent with a bigger first serve, Thiem has served 3X more aces. But also more DFs.
• Nadal's opponents see BPs in slightly more unique games than Thiem's (17% vs. 15%), and they win slightly more games when they do see a BP (56% vs. 50%).
• Nadal has been quite unclutch saving BPs. He has saved 62%, which is 11 p.p. lower than the rate at which he won non-BPs on serve. Thiem has saved BPs at the same rate at which he wins other points.

Return

• Similiar on second serve return - Nadal a little better on first serve return. This is likely to be a function of Thiem playing bigger servers (see above)
• As pointed out by @Meles, Thiem's first serve return is a strength up against a relative weakness in Nadal's first serve.
• Both Nadal and Thiem put up crazy numbers on return. Seeing BPs in 72% and 63% of return games, and winning those games 92% and 73% of the time respectively.
• And that's despite the fact that both were somewhat un-clutch while facing break points.

 

[falstaff78]

@Meles @icedevil0289 @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus @jm1980

 

[icedevil0289]

OP you're awesome!

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Thanks! Excellent!!

Have a feeling it all boils down to how clutch they are on BPs and if Thiem can convert little better than previous matches. Very tight!

 

[Sysyphus]

Falstaff the real MVP!

Thiem's numbers are impressive indeed, and he shouldn't be underestimated. Very much hoping he can zone for three out of five sets. Nadal has been looking spotless, but this will be a wholly different test. I think Thiem truly is confident he has what it takes this time around, whereas I'm not sure he did at the same stage last year.

 

[falstaff78]

Falstaff the real MVP!

awwww shucks

I think Thiem truly is confident he has what it takes this time around, whereas I'm not sure he did at the same stage last year.

this.

and maybe even at rome last week.

 

[falstaff78]

Thanks! Excellent!!

Have a feeling it all boils down to how clutch they are on BPs and if Thiem can convert little better than previous matches. Very tight!

indeed, that 15 p.p. difference between BP conversion (36%) and winning non-BPs (51%) is a little worrying.

BPs make or break big matches, as Federer found out in the USO 2015 final

 

[heninfan99]

Going with Thiem. I'm about to commit heresy but I believe Thiem is fitter than Nadal right now and is a little better at the Spanish X pattern which we'll see over & over in this match.

Also Thiem has nothing to lose, playing with house money.

 

[falstaff78]

OP you're awesome!

thank you sir

 

[falstaff78]

Going with Thiem. I'm about to commit heresy but I believe Thiem is fitter than Nadal right now.

yup. I was very skeptical about his chances until I ran the numbers. now I think he's got what it takes to win here, and again in the future.

 

[icedevil0289]

thank you sir

Its ma'am!

 

[Chanwan]

Excellent work as always. How would you put it percentage wise in terms of their chances?

 

[icedevil0289]

yup. I was very skeptical about his chances until I ran the numbers. now I think he's got what it takes to win here, and again in the future.

Man even with the stats I'm still skeptical because if I'm being honest I stl can't help wonder if the people backing thiem are still doing so more on wishful thinking to an extent

 

[falstaff78]

Its ma'am!

please accept my sincere apologies ma'am. I was thrown off by the word devil in your handle!

 

[falstaff78]

Excellent work as always. How would you put it percentage wise in terms of their chances?

bookies have it at 75/25 nadal. based on the stats alone it's 50/50. including context and pedigree I would say 55 for nadal.

 

[icedevil0289]

please accept my sincere apologies ma'am. I was thrown off by the word devil in your handle!

Lmao it's all good I can't disagree that men are often devils

 

[falstaff78]

Lmao it's all good I can't disagree that men are often devils

touche

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

indeed, that 15 p.p. difference between BP conversion (36%) and winning non-BPs (51%) is a little worrying.

BPs make or break big matches, as Federer found out in the USO 2015 final

Yes, i have noticed Thiem BP conversion could have been better for the level he is on.
He will not get a lot of BP oppurtunities vs Rafa.
When is this stats from?

 

[Meles]

Yes, i have noticed Thiem BP conversion could have been better for the level he is on.
He will not get a lot of BP oppurtunities vs Rafa.
When is this stats from?

For the regular clay season before RG, Thiem leads the tour converting a whopping 49.6% of break points, so no worries despite Thiem going 6/30 in one match at RG.

 

[Meles]

I think this SF will be a lot closer than people are thinking.

Nadal has utterly annihilated his opponents. However, without being noticed, Thiem has put up numbers which are almost as good. And he has done so against much stronger opposition.


Overall

• Nadal and Thiem both perfect in sets. Nadal won higher proportion of games (78% vs. 70%).
• Thiem's opponents are stronger. In the last year, on clay, vs. middle-ranked players, Thiem's opponents won 71% of their matches. Nadal's opponents won 60%. This is a huge difference.
• Nadal leading Thiem 62% to 59% in points won. But this difference is almost entirely explained by opponent quality.
• Nadal won 72% of his service points. This was 6 p.p better than the top 20 vs. the same opponents on clay. Thiem also outperformed the top 20 by 6 p.p on serve.
• Nadal won an ungodly 55% of return points vs. 49% for Thiem. However Thiem's opponents were servebots by comparison to Nadal's (losing 5p.p. fewer points on serve vs. top 20). So while Nadal outperformed the top 20 by 12 p.p. on return, Thiem outperformed by almost as much. (11 p.p.).

Fatigue

• Won't be an issue for either guy. Thiem has played more points, but runs less per point. As a result he has only run 1 extra km (8 vs. 7)

Aggression

• Both men with similiar numbers of errors (106. vs. 88), but Thiem with far more clean winners (181 vs. 118).
• Neither coming to the net too much.

Serve

• Thiem's first serve has been a real weapon (84% pts won). Whereas Nadal's game has been independent of his serve. If anything his second serve is even better than his first (76% vs. 69%).
• Consistent with a bigger first serve, Thiem has served 3X more aces, but also more DFs.
• Nadal's opponents see BPs in slightly more unique games than Thiem's (17% vs. 15%), and they win slightly more games when they do see a BP (56% vs. 50%).
• Nadal has been quite unclutch saving BPs. He has saved 62%, which is 11 p.p. lower than the rate at which he won non-BPs on serve. Thiem has saved BPs at the same rate at which he wins other points.

Return

• Both Nadal and Thiem put up crazy numbers on return. Seeing BPs in 72% and 63% of return games, and winning those games 92% and 73% of the time respectively.
• And that's despite the fact that both were somewhat un-clutch while facing break points.

You hit most of the stats except one of the biggest ones; first and second return. Much like Thiem's first serve stat, he's dominating and on the rise on first return winning an impressive 41.4% of those points. In his last match with Rafa he won over 45% of first return points. This is a Thiem strength up against a Nadal relative weakness based on your stats. Do you have Nadal's stats broken out on first and second return? Thiem has won 64% of his 2nd return points.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

For the regular clay season before RG, Thiem leads the tour converting a whopping 49.6% of break points, so no worries despite Thiem going 6/30 in one match at RG.

Thats good to know. Was that the Johnson match? I started to get worried about his BP conversion during that match. Still, he has to do better than 6/30 vs Rafa.

 

[donquijote]

Forget the stats. 9 time champion has been playing close to his peak (check stats lol) and cannot be beaten unless Thiem pulls out a miracle.

 

[falstaff78]

When is this stats from?

Cumulative for first 5 rounds of RG.

Clarified in OP.

 

[falstaff78]

You hit most of the stats except one of the biggest ones; first and second return. Much like Thiem's first serve stat, he's dominating and on the rise on first return winning an impressive 41.4% of those points. In his last match with Rafa he won over 45% of first return points. This is a Thiem strength up against a Nadal relative weakness based on your stats. Do you have Nadal's stats broken out on first and second return? Thiem has won 64% of his 2nd return points.

Data added. Intuition also added in OP and credited where it's due!

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Lets see if everything goes according to plan
If they can play like their stats are showing now.
How big chance is it that they will do that? I for sure hope so!!!

 

[Gary Duane]

For the regular clay season before RG, Thiem leads the tour converting a whopping 49.6% of break points, so no worries despite Thiem going 6/30 in one match at RG.

I would pay no attention to this, because these stats always go up and down weirdly. They even out over time. For instance, look at Thiem's career.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/dominic-thiem/tb69/player-stats?year=0&surfaceType=clay

Check service points won against break points saved.

Do the same thing on return.

The normal thing is for BPs saved to be around 1% lower and BPs converted to be about 1% higher. Over time this always evens out pretty close.

Breaking down a clay season to before and after RG can be a little misleading.

The real key is going to be serve. How will Nadal handle the Thiem serve, and how will Thiem deal with the Nadal serve. Nadal will count on camping out on the forehand side, waiting for Thiem to kick it to his forehand, daring him to serve wide to his backhand in the deuce court and up the T on the ad court.

Nadal has to serve wide to Thiem's forehand enough to keep him honest. Both players like to serve to the backhand by default.

Nadal's biggest non-serve weakness: hitting short.

Thiem's biggest non-serve weakness: trying to hit winners from 50 feet behind the baseline.

I still think this COULD be a close match. I still think Thiem COULD win this match.

 

[Adv. Edberg]

Nice, can I add this to the match thread?

 

[falstaff78]

Nice, can I add this to the match thread?

of course!

 

[Meles]

Data added. Intuition also added in OP and credited where it's due!

Shocked to see Nadal at 50% won on first return. Thiem somehow higher on 2nd return at 64 to 63%. First serving is going to be a battle. I wonder what Moya might do to adjust Nadal's serve game for Thiem; he might as well go for aces and not worry so much about serve percentage is my take. Ditto for Thiem.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Rafa to hold off the young lion one last time

 

[falstaff78]

Rafa to hold off the young lion one last time

He'll take some holding.

But you don't win 9 freaking French Opens without being able to handle such challenges. (9!!! Feck!!!)

 

[coolschreiber]

Rafa to hold off the young lion one last time

I want the young Padawan to win but i think the Jedi will still prevail. I just wish Yoda (Bresnik) taught the young Padawan some more strategic tricks.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal just HAS to take the initiative. I know he knows that, but he better execute and the FH-DTL is gonna have to be crispy.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Nadal's peak level still is higher than Thiem's. If Rafa shows up, he should win this. This is not a match in which they are equals, it is very much the king v the prince.

 

[falstaff78]

Nadal's peak level still is higher than Thiem's. If Rafa shows up, he should win this. This is not a match in which they are equals, it is very much the king v the prince.

I keep going back and forth between what you just said, and "at some point surely Rafa will have his Sampras 2001 moment"

(and it's clear Thiem is a worthy successor)

 

[MichaelNadal]

I keep going back and forth between what you just said, and "at some point surely Rafa will have his Sampras 2001 moment"

(and it's clear Thiem is a worthy successor)

If the match with Ultron was long id consider it a wrap. It's just Rafa is prone to ups and downs and Thiem is as fresh as a freshly popped can of Pepsi from an ice cooler.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

I keep going back and forth between what you just said, and "at some point surely Rafa will have his Sampras 2001 moment"

(and it's clear Thiem is a worthy successor)

In what way do you relate Nadal's 2017 to Sampras' 2001?

Pete does not win a single title that year, was out of form for the most part. Nadal outside of Federer, is dominating the tour this season. How are you comparing?

 

[Red Rick]

@Meles @icedevil0289 @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus @jm1980

Count me in next time plz.

Clay beasts. The deserved final. Injustice to the loser

 

[Deleted member 77403]

If the match with Ultron was long id consider it a wrap. It's just Rafa is prone to ups and downs and Thiem is as fresh as a freshly popped can of Pepsi from an ice cooler.

Beating Earth's Mightiest in straight sets has certainly helped Thiem, but trying the castrate the Bull on that court is a titanic task. Nadal is the better bigger match player, he is fresh as a daisy, highly motivated, confident, and healthy. He was use his experience to overwhelm the younger lion, and will make Thiem pay for any mistakes he makes. Nadal has this imo, and no, this is no jinx, Nadal just has the feel about him where he just will not be denied.

 

[Sysyphus]

Count me in next time plz.

Clay beasts. The deserved final. Injustice to the loser

Injustice to be sent for inescapable humiliation by Andeh Mooreh in the final? i agree.

 

[icedevil0289]

In what way do you relate Nadal's 2017 to Sampras' 2001?

Pete does not win a single title that year, was out of form for the most part. Nadal outside of Federer, is dominating the tour this season. How are you comparing?

I think that user meant in regards to winning one final slam since nadal went two years without winning a slam, though maybe they meant something else.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

I think that user meant in regards to winning one final slam since nadal went two years without winning a slam, though maybe they meant something else.

That was 2002, not 2001. I can understand that, if it was indeed 2002 that is being mentioned here.

 

[falstaff78]

In what way do you relate Nadal's 2017 to Sampras' 2001?

Pete does not win a single title that year, was out of form for the most part. Nadal outside of Federer, is dominating the tour this season. How are you comparing?

I just meant an incomparable champion passing the torch to a worthy successor. In 2001 Federer taking down Sampras was a historic transition. If Thiem wins tomorrow it'll be similiar as I expect him to be a multiple RG champion before he retires.

 

[icedevil0289]

That was 2002, not 2001. I can understand that, if it was indeed 2002 that is being mentioned here.

oh whelp got my years mixed up

 

[Red Rick]

Injustice to be sent for inescapable humiliation by Andeh Mooreh in the final? i agree.

They both deserve humiliation

Mu-rah
Mu-rah
Mu-rah

 

[icedevil0289]

I just meant an incomparable champion passing the torch to a worthy successor. In 2001 Federer taking down Sampras was a historic transition. If Thiem wins tomorrow it'll be similiar as I expect him to be a multiple RG champion before he retires.

ahh nvm see what you're saying now.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

I just meant an incomparable champion passing the torch to a worthy successor. In 2001 Federer taking down Sampras was a historic transition. If Thiem wins tomorrow it'll be similiar as I expect him to be a multiple RG champion before he retires.

You refer to iconic Sampras v Federer match from Wimbledon 2001 I see.

I can see where you are coming from, and I can see the comparisons also in that sense. The only difference was that Pete was really struggling that year, he had no won a title since his last Wimbledon title the year before, so there were some questions regarding his form, he went five sets against Cowan earlier that tournament...he certainly was not really at his best, to be fair. Now Nadal isn't exactly at his absolute peak, but he has been mowing everyone down this clay season, and outside of Federer, he has been doing very well against the whole tour.

If he wins this tournament, it is the best first half of the season he has ever had, with so many titles and finals all over the HCs also. So, yes, there is a possibility, but the parallels are not fully there.

This could be more in line with Pete's USO 02 win, one last big one, where it all began...

 

[jaggy]

I have a sneaky feeling Thiem takes this

 

[THUNDERVOLLEY]

Forget the stats. 9 time champion has been playing close to his peak (check stats lol) and cannot be beaten unless Thiem pulls out a miracle.

Agreed--after a year of the usual suspects screaming in glee that Nadal was a shell of himself and falling apart, he makes the AO final, and is playing this FO like that seen in his glory days. He will need to brainfart, and/or suffer injuries, and/or bad calls and/or forget everything he knows about the game in order to lose.

 

[Sysyphus]

Another minor stat for the parade: Thiem hitting slightly more RPMs and a clear bit more pace on the forehand side throughout the tournament. (Thiem with 135 km/h on average hitting the clearly hardest forehand in the tourney).