Cumulative stats - Nadal [4] vs. Thiem [6] - FO 2017 SF

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Another minor stat for the parade: Thiem hitting slightly more RPMs and a clear bit more pace on the forehand side throughout the tournament. (Thiem with 135 km/h on average hitting the clearly hardest forehand in the tourney).

where you sourcing these juicy tidbits?
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
where you sourcing these juicy tidbits?

Patrick Mouratoglou's "The Coach" segment on Eurosport! (also like to read what Craig O'Shannessy is up to, as he tends to have access to stats we don't often get to see)

He gave a favorable view of Thiem's game by the stats going into this match. Brought up @Meles' point about Dominic's excellent first serve return performance in Rome.
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
I'll take 6/30 against Rafa in three sets; that's two breaks per set, probably enough for the win.

Only three times in his career has Nadal been broken 6 times in a match at RG.

Djokovic 2015 - 7 breaks
Djokovic 2013 - 7 breaks
Federer 2005 - 6 breaks

that's it.

so yeah, I'd take 6/30 in a heartbeat
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
bookies have it at 75/25 nadal. based on the stats alone it's 50/50. including context and pedigree I would say 55 for nadal.
You don't give much for context, do you? I'd say it's has to be at least 70-30 for Rafa. Context, history, 99/101 etc., etc. But I do believe a bit in Thiem after reading your stats.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Nadal's peak level still is higher than Thiem's. If Rafa shows up, he should win this. This is not a match in which they are equals, it is very much the king v the prince.

All true. Falstaff's stats are awesomely compiled and presented, but this is Roland Garros and this is Nadal's house. Stats can almost be tossed in such a case. Has any tennis player in the history of the sport been as confident at any venue? Nadal's old and not playing as well as he did in 2006-2008, but unless Thiem comes out and plays nearly perfect tennis, Nadal will beat him. He's still the better player on this surface with a lot less nerves. Does anyone really think that Nadal isn't walking out there with total swag and confidence against Thiem?
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Another minor stat for the parade: Thiem hitting slightly more RPMs and a clear bit more pace on the forehand side throughout the tournament. (Thiem with 135 km/h on average hitting the clearly hardest forehand in the tourney).
if it's hit 5 m behind the baseline it doesn't get to you any faster than a 115 mph forehand hit from the baseline
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
I'll take 6/30 against Rafa in three sets; that's two breaks per set, probably enough for the win.
If 6/30 is his lowest BF conversion rate as we know top level, it will logically not happen again. if its 50%,conv rate its good. He will not get 30 BP chances on Rafas serve.
Its small margins we are talking about beating Rafa in RG. I still think Thiem can do it. Rafa got broken twice previous match to a player not really in the same branch as Thiem. Rafa cant have these blipps on serve vs Thiem. Thiem is harder to break.
Not only Thiem that needs to play his best to win here. People forget about that, Rafa can actually have mediocre days too. Rafa has to play his best to beat Thiem! So the one that has a good day at court tomorrow wins the match. The one that gets the shots inside the court wins. And to do that its a mix of confidence and luck. For sure both of them have the ability to beat the other.
My impression of Thiem, who is very honest in his nerdy way in interviews and Facebook, seem ready to finally take down 2 ATG in a row. Its time.
All stats are there, and both can do it. Its a matter of small margins and mental aspects. Its so hard to predict who has the mental edge here. Of course Rafa in his livingroom(as Thiem says) is so hard to overcome, but Rafa is older w a lot of pressure being the favorite and hasnt really faced big opponents since last time they met...... And Thiem all fresh and plays the best in his life...
Its so hard to predict!!
 
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Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
if it's hit 5 m behind the baseline it doesn't get to you any faster than a 115 mph forehand hit from the baseline

Of course. Though I think you can just as well frame it the opposite way: on clay, if you're the unique freak of nature like Thiem and Rafa who can average 3500+ RPM and hit the top echelons of speed at the same time, then you can allow yourself to be 5m behind the baseline when you have to and still have your opponent feel like you're standing on the service line blasting forehands at them (3500+ rotations & 135 km/h is humongous any way one frames it). And that's why their two forehands are dominating this clay season more so than guys with less mustard trying to stand up on the baseline;)

P.S. I think their court positioning can be exaggerated at times. We all know they start comically far back when returning, but it's very plain to see that they both expertly work their way forward to owning the baseline, often finishing points with their monster forehands inside the baseline (Nadal is finishing the majority of his forehand winners points inside the baseline this RG, finishing by going straight DTL to his opponents forehand corner some 70% of these winners). Their monstrous combos of pace and spin on the forehands in no small part is what lets them make this transition so successfully during points.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
You refer to iconic Sampras v Federer match from Wimbledon 2001 I see.

I can see where you are coming from, and I can see the comparisons also in that sense. The only difference was that Pete was really struggling that year, he had no won a title since his last Wimbledon title the year before, so there were some questions regarding his form, he went five sets against Cowan earlier that tournament...he certainly was not really at his best, to be fair. Now Nadal isn't exactly at his absolute peak, but he has been mowing everyone down this clay season, and outside of Federer, he has been doing very well against the whole tour.

If he wins this tournament, it is the best first half of the season he has ever had, with so many titles and finals all over the HCs also. So, yes, there is a possibility, but the parallels are not fully there.

This could be more in line with Pete's USO 02 win, one last big one, where it all began...
Rafa's clay season much, much stronger than Pete's US Open series in 2002 let alone Wimbledon in 2001.:confused: These potentially historic overlaps just don't come around very often which makes this match extra special and the sub-prime Novak match to a lesser extent. Federer vs. Agassi matches fit the bill. Lendl vs Sampras had some overlap and 1990 US Open match. Zverev, Thiem, and Kyrgios matches versus Fed on grass this year sort of fit the bill, but hard courts will be the toughest place for NextGen against Fed.:eek:
 
D

Deleted member 743561

Guest
All true. Falstaff's stats are awesomely compiled and presented, but this is Roland Garros and this is Nadal's house. Stats can almost be tossed in such a case. Has any tennis player in the history of the sport been as confident at any venue? Nadal's old and not playing as well as he did in 2006-2008, but unless Thiem comes out and plays nearly perfect tennis, Nadal will beat him. He's still the better player on this surface with a lot less nerves. Does anyone really think that Nadal isn't walking out there with total swag and confidence against Thiem?
Fine. So everyone knows that a one-set deficit is virtually meaningless to Nadal. At what point do you say, "Holy... it's happening..."?
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
All true. Falstaff's stats are awesomely compiled and presented, but this is Roland Garros and this is Nadal's house. Stats can almost be tossed in such a case. Has any tennis player in the history of the sport been as confident at any venue? Nadal's old and not playing as well as he did in 2006-2008, but unless Thiem comes out and plays nearly perfect tennis, Nadal will beat him. He's still the better player on this surface with a lot less nerves. Does anyone really think that Nadal isn't walking out there with total swag and confidence against Thiem?

Sport eh? Gotta love it!!
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
Rafa's clay season much, much stronger than Pete's US Open series in 2002 let alone Wimbledon in 2001.:confused: These potentially historic overlaps just don't come around very often which makes this match extra special and the sub-prime Novak match to a lesser extent. Federer vs. Agassi matches fit the bill. Lendl vs Sampras had some overlap and 1990 US Open match. Zverev, Thiem, and Kyrgios matches versus Fed on grass this year sort of fit the bill, but hard courts will be the toughest place for NextGen against Fed.:eek:

Ditto that, except I dont have an opinion Sampras and that time. I think Rafa in USO can be a force though, like in 2013, Rafa peaking little later w his serve and FH this year. Federer too, proven his game is pretty much perfect for HC, maybe more than grass.
Zverev, Thiem and Kyrgios.... Grass could be the surface they would do better than HC.

This season is the best! after the high from clay its straight over to grass, and not really any chance to get bored :D
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Fine. So everyone knows that a one-set deficit is virtually meaningless to Nadal. At what point do you say, "Holy... it's happening..."?

When would I believe Thiem could defeat Nadal tomorrow? Only when he'd be serving at 7-6, 7-6, 5-2 at 40-0.

But I still wouldn't count out Nadal and would give him a 25% chance of storming back even with that deficit. This is Nadal at the French Open! He's favored over anyone, any time, and (almost) any deficit. He's earned that type of respect at this venue. NEVER count him out there.
 
D

Deleted member 743561

Guest
When would I believe Thiem could defeat Nadal tomorrow? Only when he'd be serving at 7-6, 7-6, 5-2 at 40-0.

But I still wouldn't count out Nadal and would give him a 30% chance of storming back even with that deficit. This is Nadal at the French Open! He's favored over anyone, any time, and (almost) any deficit.
Completely hear you there. Think Fed fans have a bit of trauma in that sense, as well! The back-from-the-dead stuff is a tale as old as time at this point. There'd still be the seed of doubt for me as well. I don't see any of the remaining three players laying down for him, though. Just watched an interview with Thiem. Cool as a cucumber. Stan's been there, done that. I see Murray almost as the weakest link here... but he's got comparative youth on his side. ;)
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Probably at 2 sets and a break.

Depends which sets, if Thiem wins the first two he's very likely to win. Contrary to Nadal's warrior image, he's actually not very adept at coming back from 2-0 down and is ironically also one of the best frontrunners I've ever seen in tennis (so if he gets the 1st set, it's likely packing bags time for Thiem).
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Depends which sets, if Thiem wins the first two he's very likely to win. Contrary to Nadal's warrior image, he's actually not very adept at coming back from 2-0 down and is ironically also one of the best frontrunners I've ever seen in tennis (so if he gets the 1st set, it's likely packing bags time for Thiem).

Yeah, I meant 2-0 in sets. On clay, he's only ever been in that position once (against Djokovic)
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Yeah, I meant 2-0 in sets. On clay, he's only ever been in that position once (against Djokovic)

It's actually against Isner in 2011 I think? I don't remember Novak ever having a 2-0 lead, the only time they played 5 sets Nadal was serving for the match in the 4th set IIRC.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
It's actually against Isner in 2011 I think? I don't remember Novak ever having a 2-0 lead, the only time they played 5 sets Nadal was serving for the match in the 4th set IIRC.

2015?
Isner was never 2 sets up, only 2-1 up I think
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Completely hear you there. Think Fed fans have a bit of trauma in that sense, as well! The back-from-the-dead stuff is a tale as old as time at this point. There'd still be the seed of doubt for me as well. I don't see any of the remaining three players laying down for him, though. Just watched an interview with Thiem. Cool as a cucumber. Stan's been there, done that. I see Murray almost as the weakest link here... but he's got comparative youth on his side. ;)
lmao as a fed fan, i will never count nadal out. idc if he is on his last breath, like nope, not going to take that chance. i dont think nadal is the physical specimen some make him out to be, but his fitness is still relatively top notch and as others have said, once he gets going, he takes off.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
All. Would be v grateful for suggestions to improve the format / presentation / content of the above.

For example I'm thinking we could have something on tie breaks?

Cheers.

@Meles @icedevil0289 @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus
@Red Rick
@Adv. Edberg
I quite like it. If you could subdivide errors and winners in forehand, backhand, serve and volley it would be good. Furthermore, it would be super interesting to try and find which variables of the player of the opponent of a player have a rather strong correlation to the outcome of the match, but I guess that's a **** load of work.

I think ultimately you'd want to get some sort of shot equity, but that's not very feasible.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Of course. Though I think you can just as well frame it the opposite way: on clay, if you're the unique freak of nature like Thiem and Rafa who can average 3500+ RPM and hit the top echelons of speed at the same time, then you can allow yourself to be 5m behind the baseline when you have to and still have your opponent feel like you're standing on the service line blasting forehands at them (3500+ rotations & 135 km/h is humongous any way one frames it). And that's why their two forehands are dominating this clay season more so than guys with less mustard trying to stand up on the baseline;)

P.S. I think their court positioning can be exaggerated at times. We all know they start comically far back when returning, but it's very plain to see that they both expertly work their way forward to owning the baseline, often finishing points with their monster forehands inside the baseline (Nadal is finishing the majority of his forehand winners points inside the baseline this RG, finishing by going straight DTL to his opponents forehand corner some 70% of these winners). Their monstrous combos of pace and spin on the forehands in no small part is what lets them make this transition so successfully during points.
you're right, of course - I was more trying to be funny than precise
 

-NN-

G.O.A.T.
The stats suggested this would be competitive at least, but it really wasn't. Tennis is a funny old game.
 
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