Cumulative stats - Thiem [2] vs. Zverev [5] - USO 2020 F


Hall of Fame
Enjoy the stats. Thiem looking mighty impressive.

  • Overall. Thiem stronger in sets (17-1 vs. 18-6), games (64% vs. 59%), points (56% vs. 54%), and dominance ratio (1.42 vs. 1.26)
  • Thiem was 13 p.p. better than the top 100, vs. 6 p.p. for Zverev. See below for explanation of this metric.
  • Opposition. Thiem's opponents stronger - lower rank than Zverev's (48 vs. 104), & comparable Hard Court ELO ranking (64 vs. 52)

  • Serve. Similiar on serve (both won 69% of points, 88-90% of games)
  • Both won 4-5 p.p. more service points against their opponents, than top 100 players managed in the last year on hard.

  • Return. Thiem stronger on return (44% vs. 39% points, 40% vs. 27% of return games)
  • Thiem was 7 p.p. better than the top 100 against his opponents, whereas Zverev was about the same (+1 p.p.)
  • Zverev's 27% return games won flatters him - he won a staggering 60% of break points, vs. only 37% regular return points


As always the headline number in this analysis is a comparison of each player vs the top 100. It's a great gauge of performance, correcting for strength of draw.
  • We calculate each player's serve win% and return win% throughout the US Open. (e.g. Thiem: 69% and 44%)
  • Then we calculate the same numbers for the top 100, versus the player's opponents, over the last year, on hard courts. (e.g. in last 52 weeks, the top 100 won 63% of service points vs. Thiem's USO opponents, and 37% of return points)
  • Then we see by how many points the player was better than the top 100 on serve, on return, and add them up (e.g. Thiem was 6 p.p. better than the top 100 on serve, and 7 p.p. better than the top 100 on return)
  • The resulting number (13 p.p.) tells us how much better the player has played in this US Open, than the top 100 over the last year.


Bionic Poster
Zedly stat betterer than I expected, so slightly threatening to Tim. Rinse and repeat of the Australian open final


Impressive that Zverev has been broken one less time than Thiem in spite of his many double-faults - his 69% first serve % is really good. Still think Thiem is too good and will win in four sets.


Bionic Poster
Most important stat if there was a crowd: 4th final vs 1st. All bets are off in the bubble, especially with a possible injury issue.