Cumulative stats - Wimbledon 2018 Week 1

[falstaff78]

Here are cumulative stats from the first week of Wimbledon, for the 6 best players left in the draw.

The critical metric is "Outperformance vs. players ranked 21-100." Explained below:

• Suppose player A has won 70% on serve. But his opponents' opponents win 70% on serve vs. his opponents. ie player A is only serving as well as the typical player.
• Suppose player B also wins 70% on serve. But his opponents' opponents win 60% on serve vs. his opponents. Player B is serving 10 points better than the typical player. And he is serving better than player A, once you correct for strength of competition
• Thus, the highlighted rows show competition-corrected indicators of serving and returning.
• I have previously calculated these metrics for Wim 2017, USO 2017, and AO 2018

The above chart nicely illustrates that

• Federer is in beast mode. He has the best return performance (+10 p.p.), along with Nadal (+9 p.p.) and Djokovic (10 p.p.)
• But is far ahead on serve (+15 p.p.), where only Raonic (+14 p.p.) comes close.
• Federer doing his usual career-extending routine of playing the fewest points, running the least distance, and spending the least time on court. (Although the bots run less per point than him)

Digging a little deeper for the top 4 guys below.

• Section 4 ("Aggression") shows that Federer ends the point with a winner or unforced error way more often than the others (18% vs. 5%, 10% & 11%). But still manages greater success (77% vs. 59%, 73% & 69%). This is a testament to how crisp and dominant his game is, at the moment.

• Section 4 also shows how phenomenal and underrated Nadal is at the net. Matching Federer for frequency (both approaching 13%) and success (winning 82% & 84% of net points).

• Sections 5 & 6 explain the rates at which players lose serve and break serve. And show how clutch players are at converting or saving break points, relative to other serve and return points. (Federer has literally broken my spreadsheet by not having faced a break point yet!)

The chart below gives a little more detail about how easily each player has been holding serve. Federer holding without facing deuce 93% of the time, compared to 59%, 81% & 71% for the others.

Enjoy! Disgust!

 

[falstaff78]

@Meles @Chanwan @Sysyphus @Sentinel @Gary Duane

 

[Winners or Errors]

Thank you. Now, who can keep up these stats in week two?

 

[Russeljones]

Best volleyer in the top 100 proving his mettle.

 

[Krish872007]

Thanks a lot for the stats @falstaff78, very impressive indeed. Looking forward to Week 2 of The Championships!

 

[World Beater]

great work.

important to note that Edmund has been the toughest opponent by far.

it gets interesting now...

nishikori could well be the surprise that ends djokovic run here...

 

[stringertom]

great work.

important to note that Edmund has been the toughest opponent by far.

it gets interesting now...

nishikori could well be the surprise that ends djokovic run here...

That's a matchup from h e double hockey sticks for Kei. I want Gulbis (not solely from my heart!) to come through to make that potential QF interesting. Would love Gulbis stats from @falstaff78 on his grueling triumvirate of 5-set ordeals.

 

[Freddy Cat]

Surprised Fed isn't playing more points at the net.

 

[falstaff78]

That's a matchup from h e double hockey sticks for Kei. I want Gulbis (not solely from my heart!) to come through to make that potential QF interesting. Would love Gulbis stats from @falstaff78 on his grueling triumvirate of 5-set ordeals.

Here you go!

 

[Silence]

Great stuff as usual @falstaff78 , thank you!

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal is underrated

 

[falstaff78]

Nadal is underrated

for sure.

although he was looking just as good last year.

 

[stringertom]

Here you go!

Gr8!

Ernie's mileage (kmage needs to be coined) may catch up with him but at least he is much more efficient per point than El Grinderito. I thought the extra qualies matches and two 5-setters would have tapped him vs Zedraffe but he was easily more strong as the match went on.

Nothing surprises me about Gulbis anymore. He'll probably be fit as a fiddle for five more vs Kei.

 

[Red Rick]

@Meles @Chanwan @Sysyphus @Sentinel @Gary Duane

I am disappoint

 

[falstaff78]

I am disappoint

i've heard disappointment can be the fuel for great poetry and music

 

[Red Rick]

Anyway

The discrepancy between %points won and %games won for me shows that Federer's superiority in %points won doesn't amount to many more games, but that's just how these stats work, so that's to be expected.

Main conclusion for me is that Djokovic has by far the best stats after Federer. I think Fed's game right now just works perfectly for the grass. Djokovic's serving has been great too.

The main question woudl obviously be how stats are gonna develop when facing stronger opposition. Say, Fed and Djokovic play each other in the final, and both drop 12% in %serve points won, it's not gonna look very pretty for Djokovic.

Matchup wise, Fed has nothing but servebots or non threats to worry about until the final, so he should be fine, and I'm not really sure what win conditions are vs Federer either. His serve+1 is incredible right now, so I think returning the first with substance is crucial, which is what Djokovic does best. In rallies, Fed can just rely on his slice all day long to keep him out of trouble on his backhand side, so it's still super hard to expose his declining movement.

 

[stringertom]

Anyway

The discrepancy between %points won and %games won for me shows that Federer's superiority in %points won doesn't amount to many more games, but that's just how these stats work, so that's to be expected.

Main conclusion for me is that Djokovic has by far the best stats after Federer. I think Fed's game right now just works perfectly for the grass. Djokovic's serving has been great too.

The main question woudl obviously be how stats are gonna develop when facing stronger opposition. Say, Fed and Djokovic play each other in the final, and both drop 12% in %serve points won, it's not gonna look very pretty for Djokovic.

Matchup wise, Fed has nothing but servebots or non threats to worry about until the final, so he should be fine, and I'm not really sure what win conditions are vs Federer either. His serve+1 is incredible right now, so I think returning the first with substance is crucial, which is what Djokovic does best. In rallies, Fed can just rely on his slice all day long to keep him out of trouble on his backhand side, so it's still super hard to expose his declining movement.

Spot on until the last two words...Uniqloerer is smootherer as ever and would give Surierer a run for GOAT in that category.

 

[Sysyphus]

Here are cumulative stats from the first week of Wimbledon, for the 6 best players left in the draw.

The critical metric is "Outperformance vs. players ranked 21-100." Explained below:

• Suppose player A has won 70% on serve. But his opponents' opponents win 70% on serve vs. his opponents. ie player A is only serving as well as the typical player.
• Suppose player B also wins 70% on serve. But his opponents' opponents win 60% on serve vs. his opponents. Player B is serving 10 points better than the typical player. And he is serving better than player A, once you correct for strength of competition
• Thus, the highlighted rows show competition-corrected indicators of serving and returning.
• I have previously calculated these metrics for Wim 2017, USO 2017, and AO 2018

The above chart nicely illustrates that

• Federer is in beast mode. He has the best return performance (+10 p.p.), along with Nadal (+9 p.p.) and Djokovic (10 p.p.)
• But is far ahead on serve (+15 p.p.), where only Raonic (+14 p.p.) comes close.
• Federer doing his usual career-extending routine of playing the fewest points, running the least distance, and spending the least time on court. (Although the bots run less per point than him)

Digging a little deeper for the top 4 guys below.

• Section 4 ("Aggression") shows that Federer ends the point with a winner or unforced error way more often than the others (18% vs. 5%, 10% & 11%). But still manages greater success (77% vs. 59%, 73% & 69%). This is a testament to how crisp and dominant his game is, at the moment.

• Section 4 also shows how phenomenal and underrated Nadal is at the net. Matching Federer for frequency (both approaching 13%) and success (winning 82% & 84% of net points).

• Sections 5 & 6 explain the rates at which players lose serve and break serve. And show how clutch players are at converting or saving break points, relative to other serve and return points. (Federer has literally broken my spreadsheet by not having faced a break point yet!)

The chart below gives a little more detail about how easily each player has been holding serve. Federer holding without facing deuce 93% of the time, compared to 59%, 81% & 71% for the others.

Enjoy! Disgust!

 

[Red Rick]

I'm starting to fear John Isner.

 

[World Beater]

much has been said about the weak draw, but everyone is a GS finalist at the least with the exception of john isner who is the token dangerous floater at this yrs Wimbledon.

nishikori and raonic representing lost gen and no next gen players.

 

[VaporDude95]

for sure.

although he was looking just as good last year.

I knew Federer was playing better.

Apart from little discrepancies in the time on court and distance covered, he’s in better form than last year.

Hopefully he keeps this up.

 

[falstaff78]

I knew Federer was playing better.

Apart from little discrepancies in the time on court and distance covered, he’s in better form than last year.

Hopefully he keeps this up.

He's played two extra sets this year!

The only real discrepancy is distance per point.