Current Wimbledon Odds

James P

James P

G.O.A.T.
in mid March, because why not:

Odds RankingNameAverage Odds (18 bookies)Implied Percentage
#01Novak Djokovic1.361-142.35%
#02Rafael Nadal6.156-113.97%
#03Daniil Medvedev6.933-112.61%
#04Stefanos Tsitsipas7.906-111.23%
#05Roger Federer8.344-110.70%
#06Alexander Zverev13.60-106.85%
#07Dominic Thiem14.71-106.37%
#08Andy Murray24.42-103.93%
#09Nick Kyrgios27.06-103.56%
#10Andrey Rublev29.17-103.31%
#11Milos Raonic29.28-103.30%
#12Denis Shapovalov36.00-102.70%
#13Kevin Anderson36.17-102.69%
#14Jannik Sinner37.39-102.60%
#15Matteo Berrettini46.83-102.09%

I'd say Djokovic is a pretty heavy favorite. Was surprised to learn that Nadal was #2 and Federer was #5. I thought Federer would be rated higher, Nadal rated lower (as in Big 3 going 1-2-3 in odds to be clear). Anyway, dis(cuss)gust.
 
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James P said:
in mid March, because why not:

Odds RankingNameAverage Odds (18 bookies)Implied Percentage
#01Novak Djokovic1.361-142.35%
#02Rafael Nadal6.156-113.97%
#03Daniil Medvedev6.933-112.61%
#04Stefanos Tsitsipas7.906-111.23%
#05Roger Federer8.344-110.70%
#06Alexander Zverev13.60-106.85%
#07Dominic Thiem14.71-106.37%
#08Andy Murray24.42-103.93%
#09Nick Kyrgios27.06-103.56%
#10Andrey Rublev29.17-103.31%
#11Milos Raonic29.28-103.30%
#12Denis Shapovalov36.00-102.70%
#13Kevin Anderson36.17-102.69%
#14Jannik Sinner37.39-102.60%
#15Matteo Berrettini46.83-102.09%

I'd say Djokovic is a pretty heavy favorite. Was surprised to learn that Nadal was #2 and Federer was #5. I thought Federer would be rated higher, Nadal rated lower (as in Big 3 going 1-2-3 in odds to be clear). Anyway, dis(cuss)gust.
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First thought: It is absolutely mad to give Fed odds at this time before we find out if he can get back his stamina, or how fast he still is, or how well the knee will hold up. He only has about 4 months to pull it all together. So much could change.
 
MeatTornado said:
If Medvedev can win Wimbledon by playing 20 straight low pace flat shots back up the middle then I'll finally know how 90s fans felt when Hewitt & Nalbandian played their final.
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Would that be worse than the 2011 final? A clay specialist vs a guy who played like a slow court specialist?
 
MeatTornado said:
If Medvedev can win Wimbledon by playing 20 straight low pace flat shots back up the middle then I'll finally know how 90s fans felt when Hewitt & Nalbandian played their final.
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Even as a patriotic Aussie, I had massive reservations about Lleyton winning Wimbledon .. but you can't compare him with Medvedev.

Hewitt had a better net game than everyone on the list above, bar Injurer. Medvedev lifting the trophy would just be business as usual these days.
 
The Guru said:
Would that be worse than the 2011 final? A clay specialist vs a guy who played like a slow court specialist?
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No, obviously Djokovic/Nadal was even more defensive. But I didn't start really watching tennis until the 2000s, so it wasn't as big a shock to go from offensive baseline rallies of the 2000s to more defensive rallies in the 2010s. The transition from pure S&V in the 90s to offensive rallies of the 2000s was a bigger adjustment, I'm sure.
 
Novak and Rafa are ranked appropraitely IMO. Roger's odds are quite positive considering he hasnt spent that much match time. I would put Tsitsipas ahead of Medvedev as I feel his grass court play can improve better than Medvedev. But yeah I don't disagree with the top 2 with Nole being the top favorite
 
The Guru said:
Would that be worse than the 2011 final? A clay specialist vs a guy who played like a slow court specialist?
Click to expand...
Yeah it was worse, lol Nalbandian was not even decent on grass, you are are comparing to person who made five staright final in the Wimbledon he played, and other became champion,the only reason Nalbandian made final because that year draw fell like a pack of card, Fed loosing to Ancic in first round.
 
MeatTornado said:
No, obviously Djokovic/Nadal was even more defensive. But I didn't start really watching tennis until the 2000s, so it wasn't as big a shock to go from offensive baseline rallies of the 2000s to more defensive rallies in the 2010s. The transition from pure S&V in the 90s to offensive rallies of the 2000s was a bigger adjustment, I'm sure.
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Just remember what the quarters looked like in 2019:
Goffin
Pella
Agut
Pushikori

Not only does Hewitt have a better net game than Djokovic, even Nalbandian had a better net game than that lot (and he was pretty hopeless).
 
tonylg said:
Just remember what the quarters looked like in 2019:
Goffin
Pella
Agut
Pushikori

Not only does Hewitt have a better net game than Djokovic, even Nalbandian had a better net game than that lot (and he was pretty hopeless).
Click to expand...

Your eye test is embarrassing
 
Not sure why some keep referring to Nadal and Djokovic as DEFENSIVE players. They are actually pretty offensive, especially in recent years, due to their decline have made adjustments to their game, like improvements to the serve and coming to the net more. A purely defensive player would be someone like Ferrer or Simon or Goffin.
 
I think Medvedev can do well at least make it to the second week but the third favourite to win the tournament, these bookies have to be kidding themselves.
 
Druss said:
Not sure why some keep referring to Nadal and Djokovic as DEFENSIVE players. They are actually pretty offensive, especially in recent years, due to their decline have made adjustments to their game, like improvements to the serve and coming to the net more. A purely defensive player would be someone like Ferrer or Simon or Goffin.
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Counter punchers. Agreed there are indeed few defensive players that won much of anything. Ferrer a prime example.
 
Druss said:
Not sure why some keep referring to Nadal and Djokovic as DEFENSIVE players. They are actually pretty offensive, especially in recent years, due to their decline have made adjustments to their game, like improvements to the serve and coming to the net more. A purely defensive player would be someone like Ferrer or Simon or Goffin.
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What I saw of the 2019 final, Federer was a defensive player. I had to turn it off.
 
Druss said:
You saved yourself the pain from watching the worst choke in history performed by an ATG.
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I may have heard about the choke once or twice on here.

Even without having the Nadal return serve from the stands, it was very defensive tennis. Opportunities to attack where consistently ignored. They just grinded defensive groundstrokes like it was a medium pace hard court.

Because it effectively is.
 
tonylg said:
Tennis has evolved man, get on board.
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It doesn't have to do with tennis evolving. It has to do with Federer just recently coming back from 2 knee operations at an age in which one recovers much slower, if at all (see Murray, Wawrinka). If anything, having Federer at #5, when he still hasn't shown much after his comeback, means that the field has barely any chances on grass. It's between Djokovic and Nadal, bar from injury, an early upset or a great run from Federer.
 
What would Fed's ranking be entering Wimbledon assuming he played nothing? Since they will be using ATP ranking as seeding formula this year


i reckon a part of his current points will be halved but that's unlikely to make him drop much, will probably stay in top 10 and as such won't meet high seeds until 4R/QF

if he falls to 17 or lower, now that would be a dangerous floater
 
Nadal will probably beat Djokovic in straight sets at Wimbledon, given that Djokovic only won 10-8 5th Set with the roof closed in 2018.... And Nadal gets more and more aggressive with age, so more suited to grass now.
 
Druss said:
Not sure why some keep referring to Nadal and Djokovic as DEFENSIVE players. They are actually pretty offensive, especially in recent years, due to their decline have made adjustments to their game, like improvements to the serve and coming to the net more. A purely defensive player would be someone like Ferrer or Simon or Goffin.
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I definitely find their playstyles quite offensive.
 
Can't believe Djokovic's odds at Wimbeldon are almost as close as Rafa's at RG this year. Makes no sense, LV was lockeddown for too long, they're losing their common sense
 
James P said:
in mid March, because why not:

Odds RankingNameAverage Odds (18 bookies)Implied Percentage
#01Novak Djokovic1.361-142.35%
#02Rafael Nadal6.156-113.97%
#03Daniil Medvedev6.933-112.61%
#04Stefanos Tsitsipas7.906-111.23%
#05Roger Federer8.344-110.70%
#06Alexander Zverev13.60-106.85%
#07Dominic Thiem14.71-106.37%
#08Andy Murray24.42-103.93%
#09Nick Kyrgios27.06-103.56%
#10Andrey Rublev29.17-103.31%
#11Milos Raonic29.28-103.30%
#12Denis Shapovalov36.00-102.70%
#13Kevin Anderson36.17-102.69%
#14Jannik Sinner37.39-102.60%
#15Matteo Berrettini46.83-102.09%

I'd say Djokovic is a pretty heavy favorite. Was surprised to learn that Nadal was #2 and Federer was #5. I thought Federer would be rated higher, Nadal rated lower (as in Big 3 going 1-2-3 in odds to be clear). Anyway, dis(cuss)gust.
Click to expand...

Wouldn‘t have thought Nole would be that heavy a favourite but bookies rarely get it wrong....
 
I'd lay Kyrgios (not a phrase I thought I'd ever utter) at those prices.

Nick's probability of winning 2021 is not remotely "p = 0.0356". More like "p = 0.00000000000001".
 
I'm not a sports betting person, but I thought odds were set not solely by who the bookies themselves think will win, but rather to even the overall monetary risk who they think the betting public will place wagers on. So while Djokovic is surely the favorite, players like Nadal (my favorite) and Federer are placed so high because these classic players are who many ordinary people will place a bet on simply because they are known and will cheer for them.
 
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