Current Wimbledon Odds

[Biotic]

I'm not a sports betting person, but I thought odds were set not solely by who the bookies themselves think will win, but rather to even the overall monetary risk who they think the betting public will place wagers on. So while Djokovic is surely the favorite, players like Nadal (my favorite) and Federer are placed so high because these classic players are who many ordinary people will place a bet on simply because they are known and will cheer for them.

That wouldn't be rational decision making. You're suggesting that bookies take into account non-rational behaving individuals. How could they incorporate such a factor? Ordinary people don't bet every time they favorite plays. It must be very volatile.

 

[Deleted member 771911]

Federer is 5? I think the bookies will be getting some free money from casual fans!

 

[Gonzo_style]

Nadal will probably beat Djokovic in straight sets at Wimbledon, given that Djokovic only won 10-8 5th Set with the roof closed in 2018.... And Nadal gets more and more aggressive with age, so more suited to grass now.

With semi-retired Rosol his chances sure looks promising

 

[GabeT]

Medvedev having better odds on a grass court than Federer hurts me deep in my soul

So, so wrong

 

[tudwell]

On another thread, it looked like current odds for Roland Garros have Nadal at a 47% likelihood to win. Novak here is at 42%.

That seems entirely too close (if I'm understanding the odds right).

 

[Raul_SJ]

in mid March, because why not:

Odds Ranking	Name	Average Odds (18 bookies)	Implied Percentage
#01	Novak Djokovic	1.361-1	42.35%
#02	Rafael Nadal	6.156-1	13.97%
#03	Daniil Medvedev	6.933-1	12.61%
#04	Stefanos Tsitsipas	7.906-1	11.23%
#05	Roger Federer	8.344-1	10.70%
#06	Alexander Zverev	13.60-1	06.85%
#07	Dominic Thiem	14.71-1	06.37%
#08	Andy Murray	24.42-1	03.93%
#09	Nick Kyrgios	27.06-1	03.56%
#10	Andrey Rublev	29.17-1	03.31%
#11	Milos Raonic	29.28-1	03.30%
#12	Denis Shapovalov	36.00-1	02.70%
#13	Kevin Anderson	36.17-1	02.69%
#14	Jannik Sinner	37.39-1	02.60%
#15	Matteo Berrettini	46.83-1	02.09%

I'd say Djokovic is a pretty heavy favorite. Was surprised to learn that Nadal was #2 and Federer was #5. I thought Federer would be rated higher, Nadal rated lower (as in Big 3 going 1-2-3 in odds to be clear). Anyway, dis(cuss)gust.

Rafa 6-1. Fed 8-1....

If we bet $100 now against Fed, how much do we win?
If Fed does not even play Wimbledon, do we still win?

 

[BGod]

Nadal surely dropping to like 8th right? He'd need 2017 USO type draw.