spottishwood
Hall of Fame
Meddy to expose Nole false dawn?
Daniil Medvedev will thwart Djokovic on Sunday
- Thread starter travlerajm
- Start date
Subway Tennis
Legend
Haha thanks for the shout out
Congratulations on the way Novak is playing mate. Nadal is my guy but seeing the way Djokovic is handling the pressure is incredible. If he gets this done it will be the biggest event I've ever seen in my time watching tennis.
Enjoy the moment, its a historic feat that Djoker is achieving here
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Too late I already bet the house on Daniil. I don’t usually make predictions but this one is a lock. Easy money.
gadge
Hall of Fame
Normally you could say Novak has the pressure of CYGS and he would get nervous and medvedev has a good chance as he’s playing well but this is Novak freaking djokovic. If there’s anyone who’s going to give his heart mind and soul to win the final match to achieve CYGS it’d be Novak. I expect no walkabouts and a complete lockdown mode from Novak. If medvedev still manages to win, it’d be one heck of an achievement from him and you can’t script a better maiden slam.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Meddy is Ready.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Median ranking of opponents through first 6 rounds:
Djokovic: 77.5
Medvedev: 55
So Medvedev has faced tougher completion on average.
NonP
Legend
I said in the deleted "Novak deserves it" thread that his GS quest likely stops with Alex or Med, and I'm sticking to it. Not one of my infallible CB prognostications this time - since Djoker skipped all of this HC season sans the Os there was really nothing to go on - or even a sneaking suspicion that the weight of history will prove too much for my boy. Just think Med is on a roll and the 3rd time shall be the charm for him.
Don't feel that strongly one way or the other, though, as long as Novak grabs his 6th YEC (this year or after). He's already got the best #s in the OE, but that would clinch his kingship even further.
Don't feel that strongly one way or the other, though, as long as Novak grabs his 6th YEC (this year or after). He's already got the best #s in the OE, but that would clinch his kingship even further.
gadge
Hall of Fame
Lower ranking the better player.
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Median ranking is woefully subpar as a measure. R1-R3 are useless for determining opposition unless particularly notable names are there. Rankings for each of those opponents are randomly determined and will have little impact on a top player one way or another. On the other hand, the back half of the Slam decides practically all of it. R16-F determines true competition, ranking or otherwise.
A draw of #100, #78, #68, #16, #2, #1 en route to the finals is much better than #60, #55, #30, #22, #18, #9. Median would suggest it isn't, however.
And remember, the gap between #1 and #10 is about as big as #10 to #100. Geometric mean is the best measure here.
As usual, Lew was right and in our hubris we didn't listen.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes
gadge
Hall of Fame
But median is not a metric to be used here. It’s the ranking of the middle guy. Mean is a proper representative.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Mean would favor strength of Med’s opponents over Djok’s even more. Geomean of ranking gives Djok’s opponents slight edge, 44 to 51.
But the real point is that Med has played at a much higher level than Djokovic thru first 6 rounds, against comparable competition.
Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:
Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39
It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
gadge
Hall of Fame
Yeah but it’s quite evident Novak was improving through the tournament. Berrettini and sascha are tougher opponents than zandschulp and FAA and are ranked higher too. There’s no way medvedev has had a tougher route to the finals
Omega_7000
Legend
Is this a joke? What can Medvedev do better than Djokovic on a tennis court?
Better forehand: Djokovic
Better backhand: Djokovic
Better movement: Djokovic
Better mental strength: Djokovic
Better serve: Maybe even here
Don't compare stats against other players. This trash field right now is inflating Medvedev's numbers but he isn't ATG material.
Zverev was the only hurdle since he has the game but he proved yet again how mentally fragile he is.
Better forehand: Djokovic
Better backhand: Djokovic
Better movement: Djokovic
Better mental strength: Djokovic
Better serve: Maybe even here
Don't compare stats against other players. This trash field right now is inflating Medvedev's numbers but he isn't ATG material.
Zverev was the only hurdle since he has the game but he proved yet again how mentally fragile he is.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Djokovic has had a much harder draw so he should be winning less points on average. He's already played 3 former Slam finalists and one of the hottest players in the US hardcourt season this year. Medvedev has played basically no one. His draw has been a cakewalk and easily one of the easiest, if not the easiest, to a Slam final this year.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
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Tommy Haas
Hall of Fame
Only way I see Med having a chance at beating Djoko is holding serve. He isn't going to out rally him. Med has an abbreviated serve and if Djoko is off, I can see Med getting a lot of aces or wrong footing him and getting weak returns.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Tennis is about holding serve and breaking serve, and Med is good at both.
Tshooter
G.O.A.T.
Classic TTW post.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Courier was known to be the smartest man in ATP tour back in the day with highest IQ. he even read books on the changeover. So i am going with his prediction
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
You do have to admit that with that tough 5 setter novak had, he won't be the same guy on sunday. He's not a robot, he is human. and we've seen in the past, novak's level drop in the final after very tough semifinals. so i give the edge to Daniil
I am with you!!!!!
TimHenmanATG
Hall of Fame
TimHenmanATG
Hall of Fame
Virginia Wade won Wimbledon. Sue Barker won the French Open. And that's just in the Open era.
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Theres more to win a Match than pride. Skill...Stamina...to name just a few.
Aabye5
G.O.A.T.
Sure, but Medvedev is very cunning. He has 3 wins out of 8 against the World Number 1. He can stick with him, but will he stick with him, is the question. I've yet to see Medvedev really fade, so I don't doubt his stamina. And yes his style is unorthodox, but skill he lacks not.
TopspintheTerrible
Hall of Fame
It’s going to be 90 degrees & humid tmrw. Much different conditions than last night & the QF.
This.
Whoa. That’s an insane number from Medvedev.
Why do you have to go and get my hopes up??
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Djok is a 70% favorite to win in Vegas now.
I have an insider tip that the odds will start to move tonight, might be 50:50 by match time.
I agree that it would be remarkable if Novak is not physical a bit tired after exertions of last week and pressure he is under. Everything is in Danii's favour with exception that he doesn't have that GS winning experience if going does get really tough.
Put it this way if it was Rafa who was in final after playing such an epic 5 setter on Friday most people would be saying Danii has advantage and he should have physically but let's see what happens
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Yes and Paul Annacone the genius analyst also agree and he picks Medvedev to win tomorrow.
thnx for correction
EDIT
i never heard the name of sue barker on any tennis site
so Raducanu is 2nd british woman to win US Open after wade in open era
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we know djokovic wants this more. he said hes treating it like his last match he knows how
important it is and like sampras he seems to thrive under pressure. i want medvedev to win
but i feel if djokovic has to break his back to win this match and be out the next 6mo he'll do it..
important it is and like sampras he seems to thrive under pressure. i want medvedev to win
but i feel if djokovic has to break his back to win this match and be out the next 6mo he'll do it..
AntonZweck
Rookie
Djokovic loves round numbers, just like 20.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
I’m glad some of you are listening. 59% of all wagers have been on Med, per Sportsbook Review.
It's crazy what Djoker is doing to them. In vacuum they are one of the best players in history and yet Djoker is about to eclipse them so badly that being number 2 and 3 means nothing compared to him.He is relegating them to mug level relative to himself.
If he wins this Us Open (99.99% he does it in 4 sets for the public), he will keep on winning slams till god knows when. This year he broke the spirit of every player that had a chance to challenge him and he did it at their favorite slams. Nothing can stop him after this win.
GameSetDjokovic
Semi-Pro
Djokovic will not be denied.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
62% of wagers across all sportsbooks on Medvedev.
Djokodal Fan
Hall of Fame
Like how you have been predicting for qtrs and semis? If you keep saying that Novak will lose every round, it’s bound to become right at some point . Don’t consider yourself to be some kind of tennis pundit who got it right. You want me to dig up your old posts or do you want to run and edit them? Pick which one you’d like to do…
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