Daniil Medvedev will thwart Djokovic on Sunday

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
Haha thanks for the shout out :-D :-D
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Congratulations on the way Novak is playing mate. Nadal is my guy but seeing the way Djokovic is handling the pressure is incredible. If he gets this done it will be the biggest event I've ever seen in my time watching tennis.

Enjoy the moment, its a historic feat that Djoker is achieving here (y)
 
socallefty said:
Didn’t Medvedev get beaten in straight sets in the last two hard court Slams (2020USO, 2021AO) when he faced a higher ranked player? Some guys are good at beaten lower ranked players, but it takes a special kind of toughness to beat higher ranked players in a Bestof5 at a Slam. Has Medvedev somehow found that since January?

It looks like Djokovic is bringing his highest level in the last two matches. If he does so in the final, isn’t that higher than Medvedev’s highest level? Is there any reason to think otherwise when Djokovic is going for his 4th Slam in a row and his 9th Slam out of the last 13? Who will be more confident about their ability to win the match?

If Djokovic plays at a high level, what is the strategy Medvedev can use to win three sets? Play 20 feet back and hope to break him enough times from behind the baseline? If Rafa couldn’t do that on clay at RG, can Daniil do it? Does he have the stamina to outlast Djokovic like Rafa and Murray did at the USO in 2010, 2012, 2013? Does he have the power to outhit him like Wawrinka did in 2016? Does he have the finishing touch at the net like Federer in 2007? I think the answer is no on all counts.

Just ask yourself these questions before betting the house or the rent money on Daniil.
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Too late I already bet the house on Daniil. I don’t usually make predictions but this one is a lock. Easy money.
 
Normally you could say Novak has the pressure of CYGS and he would get nervous and medvedev has a good chance as he’s playing well but this is Novak freaking djokovic. If there’s anyone who’s going to give his heart mind and soul to win the final match to achieve CYGS it’d be Novak. I expect no walkabouts and a complete lockdown mode from Novak. If medvedev still manages to win, it’d be one heck of an achievement from him and you can’t script a better maiden slam.
 
I’m having hard time calibrating medvedev’s level. Yes he cruised through the tournament but hasn’t faced any decent competition and could be a bit rusty for all we know
 
Danii has to win this one.

Or else Federer and Nadal get snapped into oblivion

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44-Roger-Federer-e-Rafael-Nadal-Foto-Roberto-DellOlivo-1.jpg
 
gadge said:
I’m having hard time calibrating medvedev’s level. Yes he cruised through the tournament but hasn’t faced any decent competition and could be a bit rusty for all we know
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Median ranking of opponents through first 6 rounds:

Djokovic: 77.5
Medvedev: 55

So Medvedev has faced tougher completion on average.
 
I said in the deleted "Novak deserves it" thread that his GS quest likely stops with Alex or Med, and I'm sticking to it. Not one of my infallible CB prognostications this time - since Djoker skipped all of this HC season sans the Os there was really nothing to go on - or even a sneaking suspicion that the weight of history will prove too much for my boy. Just think Med is on a roll and the 3rd time shall be the charm for him.

Don't feel that strongly one way or the other, though, as long as Novak grabs his 6th YEC (this year or after). He's already got the best #s in the OE, but that would clinch his kingship even further.
 
travlerajm said:
Median ranking of opponents through first 6 rounds:

Djokovic: 77.5
Medvedev: 55

So Medvedev has faced tougher completion on average.
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Median ranking is woefully subpar as a measure. R1-R3 are useless for determining opposition unless particularly notable names are there. Rankings for each of those opponents are randomly determined and will have little impact on a top player one way or another. On the other hand, the back half of the Slam decides practically all of it. R16-F determines true competition, ranking or otherwise.

A draw of #100, #78, #68, #16, #2, #1 en route to the finals is much better than #60, #55, #30, #22, #18, #9. Median would suggest it isn't, however.

And remember, the gap between #1 and #10 is about as big as #10 to #100. Geometric mean is the best measure here.

As usual, Lew was right and in our hubris we didn't listen.
 
gadge said:
But median is not a metric to be used here. It’s the ranking of the middle guy. Mean is a proper representative.
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Mean would favor strength of Med’s opponents over Djok’s even more. Geomean of ranking gives Djok’s opponents slight edge, 44 to 51.

But the real point is that Med has played at a much higher level than Djokovic thru first 6 rounds, against comparable competition.

Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:

Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39

It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
 
travlerajm said:
Mean would favor strength of Med’s opponents over Djok’s even more. Geomean of ranking gives Djok’s opponents slight edge, 44 to 51.

But the real point is that Med has played at a much higher level than Djokovic thru first 6 rounds.

Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:

Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39

It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
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Yeah but it’s quite evident Novak was improving through the tournament. Berrettini and sascha are tougher opponents than zandschulp and FAA and are ranked higher too. There’s no way medvedev has had a tougher route to the finals
 
Is this a joke? What can Medvedev do better than Djokovic on a tennis court?
Better forehand: Djokovic
Better backhand: Djokovic
Better movement: Djokovic
Better mental strength: Djokovic
Better serve: Maybe even here

Don't compare stats against other players. This trash field right now is inflating Medvedev's numbers but he isn't ATG material.

Zverev was the only hurdle since he has the game but he proved yet again how mentally fragile he is.
 
travlerajm said:
Mean would favor strength of Med’s opponents over Djok’s even more. Geomean of ranking gives Djok’s opponents slight edge, 44 to 51.

But the real point is that Med has played at a much higher level than Djokovic thru first 6 rounds, against comparable competition.

Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:

Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39

It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
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Djokovic has had a much harder draw so he should be winning less points on average. He's already played 3 former Slam finalists and one of the hottest players in the US hardcourt season this year. Medvedev has played basically no one. His draw has been a cakewalk and easily one of the easiest, if not the easiest, to a Slam final this year.
 
Only way I see Med having a chance at beating Djoko is holding serve. He isn't going to out rally him. Med has an abbreviated serve and if Djoko is off, I can see Med getting a lot of aces or wrong footing him and getting weak returns.
 
Tommy Haas said:
Only way I see Med having a chance at beating Djoko is holding serve. He isn't going to out rally him. Med has an abbreviated serve and if Djoko is off, I can see Med getting a lot of aces or wrong footing him and getting weak returns.
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Tennis is about holding serve and breaking serve, and Med is good at both.
 
And so we end the year in Slams the same way we began. Will the result be the same or will Medvedev be able to muster a special performance?

MEDVEDEV! Earn that no. 2 ranking, earn it the hard way. He crushed you in Australia. Don't you have any pride?
 
Botschek said:
Theres more to win a Match than pride. Skill...Stamina...to name just a few.
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Sure, but Medvedev is very cunning. He has 3 wins out of 8 against the World Number 1. He can stick with him, but will he stick with him, is the question. I've yet to see Medvedev really fade, so I don't doubt his stamina. And yes his style is unorthodox, but skill he lacks not.
 
travlerajm said:
Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:

Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39

It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
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Whoa. That’s an insane number from Medvedev.

Why do you have to go and get my hopes up??
 
Nostradamus said:
You do have to admit that with that tough 5 setter novak had, he won't be the same guy on sunday. He's not a robot, he is human. and we've seen in the past, novak's level drop in the final after very tough semifinals. so i give the edge to Daniil
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I agree that it would be remarkable if Novak is not physical a bit tired after exertions of last week and pressure he is under. Everything is in Danii's favour with exception that he doesn't have that GS winning experience if going does get really tough.

Put it this way if it was Rafa who was in final after playing such an epic 5 setter on Friday most people would be saying Danii has advantage and he should have physically but let's see what happens
 
paolo2143 said:
I agree that it would be remarkable if Novak is not physical a bit tired after exertions of last week and pressure he is under. Everything is in Danii's favour with exception that he doesn't have that GS winning experience if going does get really tough.

Put it this way if it was Rafa who was in final after playing such an epic 5 setter on Friday most people would be saying Danii has advantage and he should have physically but let's see what happens
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Yes and Paul Annacone the genius analyst also agree and he picks Medvedev to win tomorrow.
 
TimHenmanATG said:
Virginia Wade won Wimbledon. Sue Barker won the French Open. And that's just in the Open era.
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thnx for correction

EDIT

i never heard the name of sue barker on any tennis site

so Raducanu is 2nd british woman to win US Open after wade in open era
 
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we know djokovic wants this more. he said hes treating it like his last match he knows how
important it is and like sampras he seems to thrive under pressure. i want medvedev to win
but i feel if djokovic has to break his back to win this match and be out the next 6mo he'll do it..
 
Sunny014 said:
Danii has to win this one.

Or else Federer and Nadal get snapped into oblivion
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It's crazy what Djoker is doing to them. In vacuum they are one of the best players in history and yet Djoker is about to eclipse them so badly that being number 2 and 3 means nothing compared to him.He is relegating them to mug level relative to himself.

If he wins this Us Open (99.99% he does it in 4 sets for the public), he will keep on winning slams till god knows when. This year he broke the spirit of every player that had a chance to challenge him and he did it at their favorite slams. Nothing can stop him after this win.
 
Vamos Rafa Nadal said:
Why does anybody need to be indicted? My predictions are actually very good most of the time. It upsets people because they are afraid their favorite might lose. My favorites aren't playing so they can't win or lose!
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Like how you have been predicting for qtrs and semis? If you keep saying that Novak will lose every round, it’s bound to become right at some point . Don’t consider yourself to be some kind of tennis pundit who got it right. You want me to dig up your old posts or do you want to run and edit them? Pick which one you’d like to do…
 
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