Daniil Medvedev will thwart Djokovic on Sunday

a10best

Hall of Fame
I like you a lot Medvedev after this US Open. Congrats. I think Novak's window of dominance is gone. Yes, that quick. Thiem will be back and the young guys have improved so much (Zev, Aliassime). He barely beat Tsitsipas at FO. Plus his age no matter all the stretching and prolong your career you do, injuries happen as you age and put in all that wear and tear. Stick a Forkovic in him. I doubt he wins the AO with another draw like he got at the USO.
 

Jason Swerve

Hall of Fame
This is an exact replica of the Hingis tragedy, by the way, and why I compare them. The days of anyone cruising through four grand slams with any decent competition (no Graf) are long gone. Hingis not only lost to Majoli on the way to her Grand Slam, she couldn't once break Majoli. Djokovic can't find himself a single break in this crucial match either. Both opponents are playing spectacularly and will probably never play at this level again. These two and Serena will be known as the "almost" players of this era. In this age, that status is extremely respectable.
 

High Lama

Rookie
Brad Gilbert with the jinx. Med won’t even win a set he said. After reading some of the comments it seems a few of the guys here were also a bit off in their predictions.
 

Bartelby

Bionic Poster
Raul for the win, and how many times do I say that!

Getting past Zverev turned out to be a pyrrhic victory.

A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. A Pyrrhic victory takes a heavy toll that negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress.

It is very difficult to beat world #2 Med at both the Australian and U.S. Final.
This time, it will be much closer as Med will be rested and ready. Med has had a ridiculously soft draw with the early exit of Tsitsipas, PCB, Shapo and others. Med will likely have another easy match with FAA while Djoker battles five hours with Zverev.
But the first order of business is getting past Zverev.
 

Bartelby

Bionic Poster
I read numerous threads predicting that Berrettini, Zverev and then Medvedev was too onerous a path to victory to be plausible.

I read numerous threads predicting that Medvedev was a shoe-in to get to the final. Medvedev should have really been the favourite.
 
I read numerous threads predicting that Berrettini, Zverev and then Medvedev was too onerous a path to victory to be plausible.

I read numerous threads predicting that Medvedev was a shoe-in to get to the final. Medvedev should have really been the favourite.
There was also a small faction of "dunderheads" (myself included) predicting that Medvedev would not win a set against Djokovic :laughing:
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
I read numerous threads predicting that Berrettini, Zverev and then Medvedev was too onerous a path to victory to be plausible.

I read numerous threads predicting that Medvedev was a shoe-in to get to the final. Medvedev should have really been the favourite.
Then you probably read my other thread with revealing hidden data, and thus you would have known that Med was as close to a statistical lock as you ever see in pro tennis to win the tournament.

And I assume you were among the thousands of bettors who cashed in after I leaked the data the night before the match.
 

Bartelby

Bionic Poster
Re-publish or perish, then!

Then you probably read my other thread with revealing hidden data, and thus you would have known that Med was as close to a statistical lock as you ever see in pro tennis to win the tournament.

And I assume you were among the thousands of bettors who cashed in after I leaked the data the night before the match.
 

travlerajm

G.O.A.T.
A five set exhausting cruise past Zverev turned out to be not such a great prediction.
I was assuming you cashed in like I did, along with the rest of those who read my leaked data bomb and recognized the easy money. But apparently not. You seem bitter.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
On the face of it, this is obviously a GOAT prediction (though Med wasn't that big of an underdog to make it comparable to say, @Checkmate )
I was one of many, who got this match completely wrong (see thread for multiple examples of just that).

However @travlerajm - for the majority of the thread, you didn't really give any reasons as to why M would beat Djoko. Your OP:

Now take this tip and cash in. + a follow up to a poster: It's your job to find out which tips to trust.
No analysis, no reasons.
Best of 5 benefits the better player. Over the last several years, that has been Djokovic. But Sunday Bo5 benefits Med.
Again, just a statement. I.e. no different from other cocky predictions on TTW. Often, they're wrong, sometimes they are right. You didn't really give us reason to believe you just yet

Mean would favor strength of Med’s opponents over Djok’s even more. Geomean of ranking gives Djok’s opponents slight edge, 44 to 51.

But the real point is that Med has played at a much higher level than Djokovic thru first 6 rounds, against comparable competition.

Ratio of total receiving points won vs opponent receiving points won through 6 rounds:

Medvedev: 2.21
Djokovic: 1.39

It’s not even close. In fact, Med’s level of 2.21 through 6 rounds is an historic level of dominance.
Here, on page 4, you do start giving reasons and they are good reasons. Do I read it right: Every time Med's opponent won one receiving point, Med won 2.21? That's impressive!

Djok is a 70% favorite to win in Vegas now.
I have an insider tip that the odds will start to move tonight, might be 50:50 by match time.
Claiming an insider tip is also quite common and very hard for the rest of us to varify, but fair enough. Not sure how much the odds moved, but Novak was still a heavy favorite going into the match. I.e. nothing close to 50-50 at match time. In fact, Djoko was almost a 50-50 favorite after losing the first, returning the money 2,1 times (European odds). After losing the 2nd, that rose to 4 times return on your money. I.e. bookies were even then not outruling a comeback due to Djoko's previous history from 0-2 down.

What really makes your prediction stand out for me though, aside from the receiving points analysis above, is your other thread about the weather being 80+ Fahrenheit. That's a great discovery.

Overall, well done and I hope you made a ton of money on this
 
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