Dark horse for the US Open (ATP)?

Tennis_Slapper23 said:
Nick is not a dark course. Maxime and Draper. I mean I see them as long shots to make the round of 16. To me a dark horse is a guy like hubbie or Fritz.
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That's why I go by seeding, takes out the subjectivity. Nick was great at Wimbledon and in DC, but that's two tournaments all year. Fritz has been more consistent and bagged an M1000.
 
Coric, obviously

Shapo--finally won some matches, went down swinging in a close fight with Medvedev

Norrie--blech, but as consistent as they come and could have won Wimbledon if Djokovic wasn't in the way

Dimitrov
 
Rosstour said:
Coric, obviously

Shapo--finally won some matches, went down swinging in a close fight with Medvedev

Norrie--blech, but as consistent as they come and could have won Wimbledon if Djokovic wasn't in the way

Dimitrov
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Norrie, by ranking, is not a dark horse.
 
I was going to say PCB ... but I always say him lol.
hmmmm
I'd go the Scandinavian players or the Dutch. I think that's fair to leave it at that since they're really impressing. Enough to see one make the quarters.
Draper is someone I'd bet on but I'm afraid the NYC Humidity might be too much for him.
Other than that if I was betting on the 30-1 odds racer... or even the 40 or 50-1 .. i'd say Davidovich-Fokina. That's my pick.
 
Coric is the easy answer. But I’ll go Cilic. He’s done it before and at his best he’s near unplayable, we saw flashes of it this season, especially that RG match vs Medvedev. Not too often do we call matches beatdowns, that was the mother of all beatdowns. It’s his best slam as well so he can go far.
 
I’ll go:
PCB
Fritz
Cilic
RBA
Obviously gotta throw in Coric after Cincy
And then really just Kecmanovic

Some people will probably say they’re not dark horses because they’re ranked too high or whatever, but when 3 guys alone have won 63 of all slams since 2003, and 12 of the last 14, or whatever the statistic is, traditional dark horses are thrown out the window imo.

As much as I like Davidovich-fokina, the dude realizes how to play on a hard court once a month and then forgets the next morning. Goffin too untested/tentative. Madrid was promising, as was Wimbledon, I really would have liked to see better results recently. I’m not sure he’s made it past the first round of a single NA HC tournament. Maybe he got to the second round at one. Korda is a R32 guy, puts up a good show, might play on Armstrong against a fan fave or showman, but gets edged out in a close match.

Dimitrov is hurt

Cressy is overhyped imo, guy made noise at the start of the year, talked big, peetered off after that, but a lot of people want to see him do well. I think it’s mostly well-wishing tbh, clearly fueled by confidence and I don’t think he’s had any the past few tournaments

Paul is a solid R16 player, both he and I would take that. Shapo is simultaneously a worse and better player, could make it to quarters maaaybe, almost no chance at semis without luck

Kyrgios is truly not a dark horse, sure by the rankings, but by the bookies and everyone’s opinion he’s not. The rankings are dumb anyway (Djokovic at 6/7)

For people saying Draper, the guy will probably fold like a lawn chair because of the conditions. He’s not the best in tougher conditions, like when he pulled out of Miami in the middle of the match. I’m sure he’s gotten better since then physically, but it takes experience to forge the mental toughness that then cooperates with your body. He can win a round or two, for sure, though.
 
Nate7-5 said:
How man mens cincy champs have gone on to win USO in the last 25 years?
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CHIP72 said:
Since 1995:

*1998: Patrick Rafter
*2003: Andy Roddick
*2005: Roger Federer
*2007: Roger Federer
*2013: Rafael Nadal
*2018: Novak Djokovic
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Canada since 94 cause of Agassi :
94-Agassi
98-Rafter
00-Safin
03-Roddick
04-Federer
06-Federer
11-Djokovic
13-Nadal
19-Nadal
21-Medvedev

So Busta historically better shot.
 
Djokovic....imagine if he is allowed to play last minute and ends up with the trophy...nobody would have expected that.
 
I don't see "Lame Horse Kyrgios" going further than the fourth round this year.

For players outside of the top 10, I think Fritz has the best chance of winning the US Open.
 
Aabye5 said:
Dark horses to win in New York:

1. Borna Coric
2. Nick Kyrgios
3. Tommy Paul
4. Maxime Cressy
5. Jack Draper

Who do you have?
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I'm not sure any of these are dark horses. Maybe. I would think dark horses are ranked lower and have not won so much recently. So maybe on some of your 5 picks, but not really.

Edit: definition of dark horse - a candidate or competitor about whom little is known but who unexpectedly wins or succeeds

i don't think anyone in this thread has named a dark horse, ok, maybe some, but not many.

i think a dark horse is like what happened in 2021 at the women's wimbledon and us open - in case some people live under a rock, emma raducanu
 
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Aabye5 said:
Not in the days when he is considered an M1000 contender.
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So the operational definition of a dark horse is someone who isn’t a Masters 1000 contender? Given that the world 152nd ranked man just won the most recent Masters 1000 that seems a bit inane. This isn’t the women’s game — there isn’t someone flying completely under the radar who’s going to win the Open; Coric was a previous Masters 1000 Finalist. Even Sebastian Korda, whom many have listed, has been a Masters quarterfinalist and thus a Masters 1000 contender. Fritz has never qualified for the World Tour Finals, he’s never made the semifinals of a Grand Slam, he’s never been a top ten ranked player. Ergo I think he fits the bill of a dark horse quite well.
 
In my opinion every player is a dark horse this year since the outcome is truly wide open. I understand the logic that is being used but if there is a Grand Slam where a totally unexpected winner can happen it is this one. With that said I am predicting the third seed - Carlos Alcaraz - will be the winner this year.
 
jimmy8 said:
I'm not sure any of these are dark horses. Maybe. I would think dark horses are ranked lower and have not won so much recently. So maybe on some of your 5 picks, but not really.
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Yes, but many would pick a top 20 or even top 10 player as a dark horse. This seemed like a good compromise.

If you want players outside the top 50, I would pick:

1. David Goffin
2. Brandon Nakashima
3. Adrian Mannarino
4. Lloyd Harris
5. Mikael Ymer
6. Mackie McDonald
 
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