Dark horses for the clay season

George Turner

Hall of Fame
-Andrey Rublev. Was rubbish at the sunshine double (though he has reached the Miami doubles final) but clay is his best surface and has shown significant improvement in the last six months. Can the clay season ignite another breakthrough? His lackluster serve can hide on this surface.

-Nicolas Jarry. Looking forward to seeing if he can back up his recent results in bigger clay court tournaments. Hits every shot with big power, he's got the weapons to be ranked much higher than he is.

-Hyeon Chung. Chung has not achieved any significant results on clay. However he showed some promise last season at Barcelona and the FO. He's upped his game since and is starting to generate consistent results, something that has eluded most of the next gen up till now. In theory has a game that can do well on the surface, though "baby Djoko" still prefers hardcourt.

-Diego Schwartzman. Like any short guy he gets teased for his height but clay is by far his best surface. After reaching the QF and 4R of the last two majors (his deepest runs at that level) He could be ready for a big run at Roland Garros. He isn't going to beat a fully fit Nadal but for most other players he will be a threat. He needs to avoid Baghdatis who double bagelled Diego on clay two years ago.

-Borna Coric. Having appeared to stagnate after his 2015 breakthrough, Coric suddenly had good runs at the sunshine double, thrashing players like RBA and ARV and winning an exciting next gen match against Shapo. Unlike Chung he put in a very impressive performance against Fedr aswell. Clay is his best surface, if he continues this form he should have a deep run or two this year.

-Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas has struggled to make the transition to ATP level but at challenger/future level the bulk of his wins have come on clay. At some point he will have a big run in an ATP tournament and it could come this clay season. Needs to avoid Medvedev.

Any other dark horses?
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
Nadal will crush all these guys so does it even matter?
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merwy

G.O.A.T.
-Hyeon Chung. Chung has not achieved any significant results on clay. However he showed some promise last season at Barcelona and the FO. He's upped his game since and is starting to generate consistent results, something that has eluded most of the next gen up till now. In theory has a game that can do well on the surface, though "baby Djoko" still prefers hardcourt.

Up until the start of this season, his best surface (at least results-wise) was in fact clay. He's obviously improved tremendously in the recent months so I think it's faulty to state that he hasn't achieved significant results on clay. Those were his best results (Barcelona and RG) until the AO2018 came along.
 

George Turner

Hall of Fame
Up until the start of this season, his best surface (at least results-wise) was in fact clay. He's obviously improved tremendously in the recent months so I think it's faulty to state that he hasn't achieved significant results on clay. Those were his best results (Barcelona and RG) until the AO2018 came along.

Chungs futures/challengers titles all came on hardcourt, except one title on green clay. That's usually a good metric to judge a players favourite surface.

Last year's clay season was indeed Chungs first mini breakthrough on tour. I didn't realize he'd spent most the 2016 season out injured.
 

Badabing888

Hall of Fame
Depends on his hip/upper thigh and whether he pulls up on because of it. That and whether he’s had enough proper preparation since injuring that area. Not sure he’ll defend all of the 4680 points. Could be another 2014 where he wins only 1 in the lead up to RG, but still too good over 5 sets at RG, especially on PC.

Of the rest: maybe Chung. His lack of a serve won’t be as important on clay.

Zverev in the masters, but still can’t see him do much over 5 sets at RG until he gets time with Lendl (if the rumour is true).

Goffin or Thiem. Possible finalists to play Rafa in the RG final. But neither will be good enough to take out the Bull.
 

Duncan Donuts

Professional
I agree with Rublev from the original post. I think he could rack up another 2 clay titles in the Spring and Summer clay seasons.

I have one pick that hasnt been mentioned yet in this thread:

Jack Sock.

He's an American version of Rafa, no where near as good though. Sock has a game that suits clay really well. He had a great clay season in 2015 but has been inconsistent since. I expect him to take the title in Houston and make a deep run in Madrid or Rome. I would like to see Sock make the 4th round at RG. I guess we will have to see if he can get his clay game back on track.
 

gogo

Legend
Totally off the radar, and definitely unlikely, but I would love to see a great clay run by FAA.
Why not? (Of course I know why not, since he is still getting his footing.)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
-Andrey Rublev. Was rubbish at the sunshine double (though he has reached the Miami doubles final) but clay is his best surface and has shown significant improvement in the last six months. Can the clay season ignite another breakthrough? His lackluster serve can hide on this surface.

-Nicolas Jarry. Looking forward to seeing if he can back up his recent results in bigger clay court tournaments. Hits every shot with big power, he's got the weapons to be ranked much higher than he is.

-Hyeon Chung. Chung has not achieved any significant results on clay. However he showed some promise last season at Barcelona and the FO. He's upped his game since and is starting to generate consistent results, something that has eluded most of the next gen up till now. In theory has a game that can do well on the surface, though "baby Djoko" still prefers hardcourt.

-Diego Schwartzman. Like any short guy he gets teased for his height but clay is by far his best surface. After reaching the QF and 4R of the last two majors (his deepest runs at that level) He could be ready for a big run at Roland Garros. He isn't going to beat a fully fit Nadal but for most other players he will be a threat. He needs to avoid Baghdatis who double bagelled Diego on clay two years ago.

-Borna Coric. Having appeared to stagnate after his 2015 breakthrough, Coric suddenly had good runs at the sunshine double, thrashing players like RBA and ARV and winning an exciting next gen match against Shapo. Unlike Chung he put in a very impressive performance against Fedr aswell. Clay is his best surface, if he continues this form he should have a deep run or two this year.

-Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas has struggled to make the transition to ATP level but at challenger/future level the bulk of his wins have come on clay. At some point he will have a big run in an ATP tournament and it could come this clay season. Needs to avoid Medvedev.

Any other dark horses?
Krajinovic started his run last Fall decimating a couple clay Challenger fields, so looking forward to his play. Tiafoe claims to like clay, but unlikely to do much given his lack of experience on the surface. Tsitsipas might surprise. He matched up really well with heavy spinners Gasquet and Thiem earlier this year.

Pouille last year was robbed of final at Monte Carlo by some minor injury issues late in his SF match. Then won Budapest. He was sick come Madrid and that kind of stalled his clay season. Great stats before this and of course Lucas quite adept at teeing off on Nadal. Big time dark horse and Nadal threat (add Coric and Goffin to this list as well).
6bee17ba7a75b0da5e8de07bba12a4ed.jpg
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Totally off the radar, and definitely unlikely, but I would love to see a great clay run by FAA.
Why not? (Of course I know why not, since he is still getting his footing.)
He won RG in juniors, no? Felix is in Barletta soon and will have to get results quickly to get some wildcards and avoid qualifying. Will have to qualify for RG.
 

gogo

Legend
He won RG in juniors, no? Felix is in Barletta soon and will have to get results quickly to get some wildcards and avoid qualifying. Will have to qualify for RG.

No, he didn't win RG jrs. He was in the final and missed MPs at the grand old age of 16, but didn't win in the end. He would have been the youngest winner ever, and I wonder if that weighed on him. Of course he came back and won USO jrs a couple of months later.
 

mightyrick

Legend
If he stays healthy and holds form, I think Isner could actually be a dark horse. He won't be a factor in best-of-five, but I think he's extremely dangerous in best-of-three right now.
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
There's lots of guys who could be dark horses given they're playing well-ish, and/or have a game suited to the surface. Chung is definitely one, Schwartzman another, Carreno Busta, Rublev, I'm not sure you can call the defending Rome champion a dark horse, but throw him in there too. Goffin and Thiem have certainly got to be there if they are fit and healthy, ditto Nishikori. I'd throw Kyle Edmund in there also. Dude will like the time he gets to set up his bomb of a forehand.

Could be one of the most competitive times of the year if they are all healthy/Nadal is not/the sun doesn't come out too much.
 

MeatTornado

Talk Tennis Guru
It might sound silly because he's ranked #3, but does Cilic count as a dark horse? He's not your prototypical clay courter, but he really impressed me on the dirt last year.

QF in MC, won Istanbul, QF in Rome and QF in Paris. I thought that was pretty good.
 

li0scc0

Hall of Fame
Is Nadal even healthy and ready for the clay season? I've not heard any news on his injury status

Just like, well, pretty much every season in his career, Nadal will have 'mystery injuries' and magically return healthy for the clay season. I wish he would simply say "I want to be fresh for the clay season, so I am going to rest to prepare." No shame in that.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Is Nadal even healthy and ready for the clay season? I've not heard any news on his injury status
Nadal is currently on his deathbed. He'll reach his peak the moment he starts playing his first match in Monte Carlo, though so no worries.
 

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
Probably no one. Dark horses in the ATP tend to not win anything.

It's between Nadal, Thiem, and maybe Zverev/Dimitrov/Djokovic. Lesser guys aren't winning anything.
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
Jarry seemed to be playing top 20 level, he could cause some upsets

Dunno if Norrie qualifies as a dark horse, but he's going to be a PITA for whoever draws him
 
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