Defiance through defence: Two decades of dominance, another one ahead?

[Rovesciarete]

As Roger Federer became the new number one in February 2004 and as we will have a brilliant returner as number one during February 2024 a simply poll question came to my mind. What did they have in common? Did they produce a simple numerical outcome which seems to be a floor to get to the very top of the men's game?

Indeed there seems to be something like it when it comes to the percentage of return points won. Nobody has become the number 1 without winning over 40% for most of his relevant career. Roger for example has a career average of 39.7% but if take away the first three years of his rise and last three years of his fall he was well above it. Novak and Rafa are well above it without saying.

Of the younger guys Medvedev averages 39.6% but improved steadily over the years and crossed the mark in 2019. Alcaraz has been winning over 40% since the first match he played on the tour and is right now well above it. Of course the benchmark could be 39% or 39.5% but 40% is just nice round number.

I will look at other factors but this one really struck me.

So to correct also the poll question: When will we have another number one below the 40% return game win percentage?

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

2024?

 

[Gary Duane]

As Roger Federer became the new number one in February 2024 and as we will have a brilliant returner as number one during February 2024 a simply poll question came to my mind. What did they have in common? Did they produce a simple numerical outcome which seems to be a floor to get to the very top of the men's game?

Indeed there seems to be something like it when it comes to the percentage of return games won. Nobody has become the number 1 without winning over 40% for most of his relevant career. Roger for example has a career average of 39.7% but if take away the first three years of his rise and last three years of his fall he was well above it. Novak and Rafa are well above it without saying.

Of the younger guys Medvedev averages 39.6% but improved steadily over the years and crossed the mark in 2019. Alcaraz has been winning over 40% since the first match he played on the tour and is right now well above it. Of course the benchmark could be 39% or 39.5% but 40% is just nice round number.

I will look at other factors but this one really struck me.

You are undoubtedly thinking of return points, not return games. And of course you mean 2004 for Federer. You need to make some corrections.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Thiem and Wawrinka both had under 40% return rate. Unless something changes drastically. The days of a single hander number 1 are over.


And I say good riddance. There is no place for weakness today.

 

[ollinger]

Roger for example has a career average of 39.7% but if take away the first three years of his rise and last three years of his fall he was well above it.

.......and if you take away the matches he lost you'd have to concede he was undefeated in his career

 

[Rovesciarete]

You are undoubtedly thinking of return points, not return games.

Exactly.

And of course you mean 2004 for Federer.

Indeed.

 

[Rovesciarete]

.......and if you take away the matches he lost you'd have to concede he was undefeated in his career

I don’t think that the period outside of his top1 is too relevant even if it does reinforce the main point - without the necessary return points won even Roger struggled.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Thiem and Wawrinka both had under 40% return rate. Unless something changes drastically. The days of a single hander number 1 are over.

When returning Roger was head and shoulder above them to mention just that.

Shapo shares his 37.1% RPW peak with Felix, but it’s below 36% overall. Shelton is still under 33% RPW!

 

[nolefam_2024]

When returning Roger was head and shoulder above them to mention just that.

Shapo shares his 37.1% RPW peak with Felix, but it’s below 36% overall. Shelton is still under 33% RPW!

Yes but he is anamoly now. The return needs 2 hands. Without great returning we see no number 1s.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Cerundolo looks decent among the lesser known young guns, we might have a surprise in waiting.

 

[Rovesciarete]

I just wanted to point out that those return point win percentages are not corrected for surface. Thus Nadal and Alcaraz look better while Federer, Djokovic, Medvedev and Sinner look worse...

 

[travlerajm]

Roddick 2003?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Roddick 2003?

Yes, the last not-so-great returner. I anticipated it, as there is no way that a player without those numbers will be N1 in early 2024 - twenty years after Federer reached the top of the tour.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

relevant Tennis Abstract article: https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2015/05/31/nick-kyrgios-and-the-minimum-viable-return-game/

commenter speaking optimistically about Kyrgios' returning and reply by Sackmann that is relevant to Shelton skepticism:

I suggest that Kyrgios is a “serve prodigy” – a young player whose service game has become world-class while the rest has lagged behind. While he may remain in the same category as Karlovich, Isner and Raonic, we may also see his return game develop steadily over the next few years. After all, nowadays it is increasingly hard to become a world-class player before the age of 21-22. Maybe Kyrgios has coasted on the strength of his service game until it became manifestly insufficient. Now he has “bitten on granite” for a while, I expect him to start returning better.

It could be. I’d imagine that will be the focus of his next few seasons, and you never know how or how much a player will improve. OTOH, while there are plenty of examples of players who fit the ‘serve prodigy’ mold, there’s very little precedent for them substantially improving their return game.

If anything, many big servers become *more* one-dimensional, in part because as their serve improves, they must play more difficult opponents. Ivanisevic is an interesting example–his first full season was 36.2% RPW%, and his career RPW% was a bit lower; he never reached 37% for a full season. Roddick: broke in at 36.3%, never exceeded 37.5%, career RPW% was lower. Ljubicic: broke in at 34.9%, only beat 36.0% once, and stayed right at 35.0% for his career. Those numbers probably hide some improvement, because they faced tougher opponents as their careers progressed, but Kyrgios will confront the same challenge.

 

[Rovesciarete]

relevant Tennis Abstract article: https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2015/05/31/nick-kyrgios-and-the-minimum-viable-return-game/

commenter speaking optimistically about Kyrgios' returning and reply by Sackmann that is relevant to Shelton skepticism:

Was going to bring that up later

In fact it inspired me to some degree to open this thread as I started to notice this very strong trend. Slowing down some courts certainly helped to make the RPW more important and pushed the threshold up.

Shelton is still very young but as soon as I saw his very low RPW I became quite worried for him. He should be able to improve it by a lot for various reasons, but we will see.

 

[Wander]

Was going to bring that up later

In fact it inspired me to some degree to open this thread as I started to notice this very strong trend. Slowing down some courts certainly helped to make the RPW more important and pushed the threshold up.

Shelton is still very young but as soon as I saw his very low RPW I became quite worried for him. He should be able to improve it by a lot for various reasons, but we will see.

A Roddick or Ivanisevic-esque career could be his ceiling and that's just because historically we know that serve prodigies with weak RPW numbers hardly ever develop into Top Class returners. I'd like to expect more, but looking at things analytically, a career like Ivanisevic would already be incredible for Shelton.

 

[aldeayeah]

A serve-and-forehand kind of player could get away with lower numbers, but unless Shelton starts GOATing outta nowhere I see no candidates in the near future.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Was going to bring that up later

In fact it inspired me to some degree to open this thread as I started to notice this very strong trend. Slowing down some courts certainly helped to make the RPW more important and pushed the threshold up.

Shelton is still very young but as soon as I saw his very low RPW I became quite worried for him. He should be able to improve it by a lot for various reasons, but we will see.

yeah earlier this year i was making 2 relevant mistakes

1. evaluating movement pretty poorly, because i looked at young and peakish versions of guys like Roddick and Tsonga and thought "hey these guys can scramble around the court and make great gets, how were they not elite movers?" but their footwork was sloppy and they were consistently a step short laterally and they didn't have super-quick reactions, and even if i was initially right, that didn't mean they could keep their movement up as their games developed or after they got injured

2. assuming that explosiveness in one area (defensive lateral movement) necessarily translates to another area (return)

imo best counter-example is actually in clay courters, who have very good balance and anticipation for defense on clay, but can't translate that into an elite return of serve on hard courts (let alone grass courts) because they don't have enough of the right athletic traits

so while earlier in the year i thought Shelton's gets on clay suggested he might buck the "prodigy server" trend and become significantly better at returning, realistically the two things aren't and shouldn't be connected at all. more pessimistic about my "he's in the could-win-3 majors tier with Sinner" prediction earlier in the year, but still think he picks up 1 Wimbledon by the end of his career

 

[Rovesciarete]

I don't know about mistakes or movement but I think it is important to keep in mind that:

'Normal' groundstrokes are a subset of strokes in generals. Returns contain also most groundstrokes but also a lot of other ones, especially blocks. Kyrgios or Shelton can hit very big but have troubles to block serves or respond under pressure. They have a big forehand but not a great one. Usually more compact (ground)strokes translate into better returns.

Djokovic won more returns by quick reaction and blocks while Nadal used relatively more distance, explosive movement and big hitting. In short Rafa shifts more towards 'normal' groundstrokes as returns. Medvedev is arguably the most extreme example, often hitting big and deep from way downtown.

This is also tied to athletic gifts, reaction time, specific matchup, form and so on. Sinner is usually near the baseline but returned very deep against Zverev.

so while earlier in the year i thought Shelton's gets on clay suggested he might buck the "prodigy server" trend and become significantly better at returning, realistically the two things aren't and shouldn't be connected at all. more pessimistic about my "he's in the could-win-3 majors tier with Sinner" prediction earlier in the year, but still think he picks up 1 Wimbledon by the end of his career

Wimby is certainly possible, just like other ones. Being an elite server growing up correlates imho with quick maturation so that said players will per definition perform better against their peers. However it might also mask deficiencies in other areas and/or make it more difficult to work on them. Special serve talent should also depress the sheer RPW because they are more likely to skip a return game mentally, thinking about the Sampras set.

On the other hand a weak or shaky serve should push good returners to maximise game wins and thus RPW. I think it is no surprise that Sinner and De Minaur baked the most beagles and breadsticks.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Alexander Bublik and Return of Serve Futility:

But to reach the next level, the Russian will need to return a lot better. Several years ago, I looked at the “minimum viable return game” necessary for an elite player. At the time, I was interested in Nick Kyrgios’s chances at a spot near the top of the rankings despite his own brand of return futility. In the 25 years between 1991 and 2015, when I wrote that piece, only four players finished a season in the top five while winning less than 37% of their return points, and two of those were within a percentage point of the threshold.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Good bad news on the Shelton front. Holding a lot more but still only a slight RPW increase, which is more difficult to improve with age...

Tour-Level Seasons Top​

Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.

Year​	Win%​	Set W-L​	Set%​	Game%​	TB%​	Hld%​	Brk%​	A%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	SPW​	RPW​	TPW​	DR​	Best​
2024	61.5%​	83-63​	56.8%​	51.8%​	52.5%​	88.9%​	15.2%​	11.0%​	4.0%​	67.7%​	75.9%​	53.9%​	68.8%​	33.4%​	51.0%​	1.07​	W (Houston)
2023	51.0%​	73-68​	51.8%​	50.2%​	52.9%​	84.3%​	16.1%​	11.9%​	5.1%​	63.8%​	75.8%​	51.5%​	67.0%​	32.7%​	50.1%​	0.99​	W (Tokyo)
2022	50.0%​	9-8​	52.9%​	50.3%​	33.3%​	89.7%​	12.4%​	11.2%​	5.4%​	58.6%​	79.0%​	54.3%​	68.8%​	31.4%​	49.8%​	1.01​	R16 (2x)
Career	56.1%​	165-139​	54.3%​	51.0%​	51.2%​	86.8%​	15.5%​	11.4%​	4.6%​	65.4%​	76.0%​	52.7%​	68.0%​	33.0%​	50.5%​	1.03 ​

 

[Rovesciarete]

Taking into account the increasing dominance of the serve in the modern game the minimum viable return numbers to remain in the top 5 should be lower in this decade and the next one unless the tour slows down the courts or balls on average.

Fritz at 6 has the lowest RPW% in the top 10 with 36%, markedly lower than second-worst Dimitrov at 10 with 37.3%.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Top50 with return points won and versus first on hard, top players face better player…

Rk	Player	RPW​	v1st%​
1	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	40.4%​	31.2%​
2	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	40.7%​	33.6%​
3	Alexander Zverev [GER]	36.9%​	28.9%​
4	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	38.7%​	29.1%​
5	Daniil Medvedev [RUS]	40.1%​	32.0%​
6	Taylor Fritz [USA]	37.1%​	28.1%​
7	Andrey Rublev [RUS]	36.9%​	27.1%​
8	Casper Ruud [NOR]	35.9%​	25.9%​
9	Alex De Minaur [AUS]	41.7%​	33.3%​
10	Grigor Dimitrov [BUL]	37.3%​	28.7%​
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]	34.6%​	26.1%​
12	Hubert Hurkacz [POL]	34.0%​	26.0%​
13	Tommy Paul [USA]	40.2%​	33.9%​
14	Holger Rune [DEN]	35.2%​	26.5%​
15	Frances Tiafoe [USA]	35.7%​	27.2%​
16	Ugo Humbert [FRA]	37.1%​	27.5%​
17	Ben Shelton [USA]	32.9%​	25.4%​
18	Lorenzo Musetti [ITA]	34.9%​	25.4%​
19	Jack Draper [GBR]	39.3%​	31.5%​
20	Arthur Fils [FRA]	35.1%​	27.1%​
21	Felix Auger Aliassime [CAN]	37.1%​	29.8%​
22	Sebastian Korda [USA]	37.4%​	28.1%​
23	Alejandro Tabilo [CHI]	35.3%​	25.8%​
24	Alexei Popyrin [AUS]	36.4%​	27.9%​
25	Tomas Machac [CZE]	36.3%​	28.0%​
26	Karen Khachanov [RUS]	36.0%​	26.8%​
27	Sebastian Baez [ARG]	36.6%​	27.3%​
28	Alexander Bublik [KAZ]	36.3%​	30.0%​
29	Jordan Thompson [AUS]	37.4%​	30.2%​
30	Flavio Cobolli [ITA]	35.6%​	26.4%​
31	Francisco Cerundolo [ARG]	35.5%​	27.4%​
32	Nuno Borges [POR]	37.7%​	27.3%​
33	Jiri Lehecka [CZE]	34.8%​	28.4%​
34	Nicolas Jarry [CHI]	32.6%​	23.6%​
35	Tomas Martin Etcheverry [ARG]	35.6%​	23.5%​
36	Matteo Arnaldi [ITA]	36.2%​	29.0%​
37	Tallon Griekspoor [NED]	31.4%​	23.8%​
38	Brandon Nakashima [USA]	33.7%​	24.9%​
39	Pedro Martinez [ESP]	36.6%​	25.9%​
40	Jan Lennard Struff [GER]	34.8%​	25.4%​
41	Gael Monfils [FRA]	36.3%​	31.4%​
42	Matteo Berrettini [ITA]	33.3%​	27.6%​
43	Mariano Navone [ARG]	36.0%​	27.7%​
44	Luciano Darderi [ITA]	33.3%​	25.4%​
45	Alex Michelsen [USA]	37.3%​	28.2%​
46	Zhizhen Zhang [CHN]	33.6%​	24.8%​
47	Marcos Giron [USA]	35.9%​	27.8%​
48	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard [FRA]	24.6%​	21.0%​
49	Juncheng Shang [CHN]	37.7%​	29.1%​
50	Lorenzo Sonego [ITA]	32.8%​	26.6%​
	Average	36.4%​	28.1%​

 

[Rovesciarete]

Draper looks much more dangerous than Shelton among the big serve talents. Was also like Sinner a small kid and thus learnt to fight hard. Jarry is a very stereotypical North-American player, Paul and Michelsen break that mold.



Sinner faced by far the toughest opponents this year, no surprise there.

 

[nolefam_2024]

What happened to Djokovic this year. I am guessing this is lowest return pts in more than a decade on HC. Maybe remove 2017.

Am I close ? Djokovic between 2007 to 16 would likely win 41+ on HC right ?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Up the serve is becoming more and more a weapon now than in 2010s. Sinners numbers are good but he is not far from under 40%

Federer era is too far back so I can't compare that to now but Djokovic was hitting 42+ in his best years.

While sinner is hitting 71 on service pts won.

 

[Aabye5]

Top50 with return points won and versus first on hard, top players face better player…

​

Interesting. What's keeping Paul and Draper out of the top 10?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Interesting. What's keeping Paul and Draper out of the top 10?

Not much but Draper has imho clearly more potential. In some ways he is quite similar to Sinner, lanky late grower with some of the usual physical issues along the way. Obviously not such a ballstriker and movement talent but has a better (lefty) serve and is a fine all-court player.

Great fighting spirit. Lots of people look at guys struggling and suffering only to conclude that they are not up to the rigours of the tour. In Draper I saw sweat and vomit but he kept going…

 

[nolefam_2024]

Not much but Draper has imho clearly more potential. In some ways he is quite similar to Sinner, lanky late grower with some of the usual physical issues along the way. Obviously not such a ballstriker and movement talent but has a better (lefty) serve and is a fine all-court player.

Great fighting spirit. Lots of people look at guys struggling and suffering only to conclude that they are not up to the rigours of the tour. In Draper I saw sweat and vomit but he kept going…

Both are top 10 material.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Both are top 10 material.

For some time, but I see Draper as one of the few which can win slams in the Djokovic to Alcaraz-Sinner era. On grass and fast hardcourt he can take rackets out of hands...

 

[Daniel Andrade]

Thiem and Wawrinka both had under 40% return rate. Unless something changes drastically. The days of a single hander number 1 are over.


And I say good riddance. There is no place for weakness today.

Lmao

 

[Rovesciarete]

This article deserves its own thread, Andreeva looks like the star which was promised. Obviously there is a different RPW benchmark for woman but also Gauff and Swiatek are reinforcing my thesis….