ChrisJR3264
Legend
Tsonga was a beast.
Del Potro RG 2009 vs Alcaraz RG 2025 who wins?
- Thread starter RS
- Start date
abmk
Bionic Poster
if it goes to a 5th, probably Alcaraz. But delpo most likely closes this out in 4 sets.
RS
Bionic Poster
Interesting.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
He played very well and dominated with his mighty serve+forehand combination. DelPo was a forerunner of players like Karen, Fritz and Berrettini, obviously with considerably more quality. He could be overwhelming for lesser players, but suffered greatly against elite two-handed backhands with great movement, like Murray and Djokovic. Look at the H2H.
Alcaraz and Sinner would be a terrible matchup for him on clay, fantastic returners with vastly superior movement. I shudder at the thought of Juan trying to go backhand cc against Jannik. On hard it would be closer with Alcaraz, don't think much would change against Sinner.
JoelSandwich
Hall of Fame
This question popped into my head immediately after reading the thread title lol
abmk
Bionic Poster
heh.
delpo RG 2009 is well above Alcaraz of RG 2025. but it might be time to bring in some stuff like like this to counterbalance the results of this poll.
But del Potro did look pretty good against Murray at Madrid, the last tournament before the French Open in 2009, beating him 7-6, 6-3.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Yes, it was however Madrid. Best terrain for the big serve + big forehand combination. Great win by DelPo.
RS
Bionic Poster
The thing is even a large number of Fed fans are choosing Raz including like zagor.
abmk
Bionic Poster
and not to forget delpo's BH was excellent in RG 2009 and he dominated with it also. people thinking it was just serve+FH didn't watch or just forgot.
Delpo wouldn't like the vertical movement needed if Alc repeatedly finds the droppers of his.He would be moving Delpo entirely too much
Anything older from the good ol' days is our taste here. Kids these days do be sucking.
2011 Novak the way I perceive Alk, would be easier for him to face in his mind than the aura merchants that late-career Novak and Federer of 2011 were (and by that I mean having the GOAT vibe with them even though they were in varying degrees, past their prime).
Alc is a head case and his mindset is particularly important to his gameplay.
This RG match was all that more important for Raz because he knows he's still ahead of Sinner. He's a mental giant for sure but if you don't look at his mental flaws, Alcaraz is then not seen properly for who he is.
Now whether he'd lose to AO 11ovic? Probably, yeah, but those courts would also be near ideal for Alcaraz too.
This doesn't explain his W wins or Madrid though at least two of them can be explained away as a super fresh, super talented player playing with gay abandon ala Tsitsipas but an actual ATG talent.
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welcome2petrkordaland
Hall of Fame
Maybe I shouldn’t be so surprised this thread RE: a hypo and therefore untestable matchup has lasted so long. I haven’t seen the Delpo-Fed RG 09 semi in decades and am not sure I rewatched much if any. I recall it and have long considered it a highly underrated, under appreciated match with Delpo “goating,” if you will, and Fed eventually wearing him down. I remember being enthralled by both semis that year, the other being Feña (F. Gonzo) vs. Solderling ofc, which also went 5.
I may have to watch this Fed-Delpo match again and appreciate it properly.
I even saw Delpo live at UCLA twice around 08 & 09 & am aware of his incredible run mainly on hard but also impressive on clay prior to his wrist woes.
I would now say (I initially said carlitos in 3) Carlos RG 25 vs. Delpo RG 09 would be 4 or 5 sets and would favor Carlos to exploit the obvious disparity in movement and in stamina, esp. on clay.
Some of the posters here are insufferably opinionated and over reliant on stats imo even when discussing a hypothetical match involving Delpo on clay vs. Alcaraz on clay Smh. Might wanna stick to Delpo’s hypothetical process on hard court or against an opponent who doesn’t have the best FH dropshot on tour & possibly ever .
I may have to watch this Fed-Delpo match again and appreciate it properly.
I even saw Delpo live at UCLA twice around 08 & 09 & am aware of his incredible run mainly on hard but also impressive on clay prior to his wrist woes.
I would now say (I initially said carlitos in 3) Carlos RG 25 vs. Delpo RG 09 would be 4 or 5 sets and would favor Carlos to exploit the obvious disparity in movement and in stamina, esp. on clay.
Some of the posters here are insufferably opinionated and over reliant on stats imo even when discussing a hypothetical match involving Delpo on clay vs. Alcaraz on clay Smh. Might wanna stick to Delpo’s hypothetical process on hard court or against an opponent who doesn’t have the best FH dropshot on tour & possibly ever .
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
honestly don't see why 2018 Delpo wouldn't be competitive. He still has a really good serve/FH and Alcaraz never beats anyone half decent easily. Alcaraz is not really someone who is going to play very disciplined and really pin him to his BH.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
yeah people are pretending like 2009 Delpo was 2018 Delpo, which makes sense, that's probably the only version they watched or the only version their bird brains can remember. Hence why I brought up 2018 Delpo since that essentially seems to be the hypothetical this thread is entertaining anyways.
2009 Delpo had a huge BH, was hitting monster returns, as good a mover as anyone has ever been at that height, a lot more explosive/balanced than Zverev/Medvedev and nearly as good in terms of overall agility and court coverage. Delpotro is an inch+ taller than those guys anyways and it shows because he hit a slightly bigger ball than the Simon-esque balls those guys hit.
Racquet_smash
Hall of Fame
Right? He had one of the very best 2 handers on tour. Would be remembered as one of the best ever without the wrist injuries, i don't get how it's getting clowned as a shot.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
It's because people are thinking 2018 Delpo when he gets brought up.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
TheFifthSet
G.O.A.T.
He knows what he's doing. We know what he's doing. He knows we know what he's doing. We know he knows we know what he's doing. But he still does it.
Racquet_smash
Hall of Fame
I feel like most people here are fairly new to tennis. How can you clown Tsonga as a QF slam opponent?
TennisGrandpA
Legend
Tsonga that time made zero RG semi and Andreev has a lesser pedigree than Rublev wtf are you even talking about? Every time Fed won a slam that didn’t include big 3 his opponent seem to be peaking even though they didn’t do much at that slam.
abmk
Bionic Poster
delpo moved fine in 2009 although that would be exploited to an extent by Carlos as fed did. But disparity in the serves of delpo and alcaraz is simply quite bigger.
and delpo was serving from a tree in that match.
abmk
Bionic Poster
oh 2018 delpo would definitely be competitive. no question. just that Alcaraz would exploit his 18 BH (though not pin him ala Nadal) and outlast him.
zagor
Bionic Poster
Yeah, I get what you're saying and it might partly explain why it seems Sinner deals with old Novak with ruthless efficiency in comparison. That said, I don't think Carlos' woes against Novak on HC and clay are solely mental, he was bothered by Novak's variety and point construction on clay and on HC he's bothered by his wall-like counter-punching and pace redirection he can still execute flawlessly on some days. Very likely Alcaraz hasn't reached his peak on HC but getting almost routined by Oldovic at AO like that still looks bad on him (regardless of all the factors), it spits on the narrative of Alcaraz being better than the big 3, which is being unnecessary pushed anyway.
It is interesting that in 2023 Carlos lost the match FO match to Novak where he was the favourite but then won Wimbledon where Novak was favoured, most people expected the opposite. But that's because they make presumptions that a player from Spaniard has to prefer clay, I've seen nothing to suggest that clay is better surface for Alcaraz than modern grass. If anything grass accentualizes some of his biggest strengths and rewards him for playing instinctive tennis
My point was he being the mental giant he is, often isn't and loses matches in the head in ways that don't help his still WIP game.
That he's not sinking is a good sign anyway because these guys are rare. Being a child prodigy sucks the life out of most right in their own heads before their physicality goes away
Angrybirdstar
Professional
we should maybe look at those players' performances Before playing del Potro at RG '09:
Andreev had a 24-22 record at RG + Masters + Barcelona. while he did consistently play up to competition (including that unintentionally excluded Valencia '05 win over Nadal), he also went to 5 in his matches vs Arguello and Fognini at RG '09. i don't think that set him up to be competitive vs del Potro in the next round, and i don't think (or recall that) Andreev had any particularly impressive performances (win or loss) in that clay season
Tsonga was 2-4 (wins over Mahut and washed Safin; this is ignoring the RG '05 loss vs Roddick) against top 50 opponents on clay. at that point, Tsonga wasn't even a fake test
finally, Robredo had a decent 18-25 record against top 20 opponents (90-40 vs all) at RG + Masters + Barcelona... but he was 2-10 after his Hamburg '06 win! includes losses to Ancic, Berdych, Roddick, and Murray, while the wins were a lottery win over Davydenko in '08 and a tight win over washed Safin in '09
so i don't really see a meaningful gap between Tsonga and Lehecka, Robredo and Rublev, and Andreev and Bublik, especially when considering tournament-specific form (e.g. Bublik was the most likely of them all to actually pose any sort of threat to the opponents in question). certainly don't see the case for calling the former a deep draw and the latter a joke draw, and if anything i think it's an unintentional indictment of the '09 clay field if those 3 were supposed to constitute a deep or tricky draw
using eye test would have rectified this framing. del Potro's career % of 1st SPW in <= 3 shots looks much closer to Khachanov (52%, which is underwhelming for their size) than the elite numbers of Fritz (58.9%) and Berrettini (61.1%). Roddick (60.2%), Tsonga (57.8%), and Cilic (59.1%) are better examples of this archetype
watched a bunch of highlights of the '08-'09 Murray-del Potro matches and there seemed to be very little BH grinding going on, which perhaps was what made them so consistently entertaining! lots and lots of moving around (lateral and longitudinal), and a lot of slicing and counterpunching from both in very refreshingly strategic baselining. never really got the feeling that del Potro's BH ballstriking was insufficient, either from the few BH rallies that occurred or from trying to analyze that negative space, so much as his movement constraining his offensive and defensive options (and Murray making him feel that pressure). haven't gotten around to the early Djokovic-del Potro matches (and i suspect they're probably less entertaining overall), but my guess is that even there the bad h2h is more about Djokovic's direction changing and defense, and less about mere BH grinding (however heavy the opponent's shots were or would be)
on a slight tangent, i would like to point out that the top 18 for OE win % vs lower-ranked players (min 200 matches, up to '24, involves back-calculated rankings pre-'73) includes the 12 consensus (6+ Slams) ATGs + Sinner, Murray, del Potro, Alcaraz, Vilas, and Laver. think that list and the ordering has interesting implications for how primes, pre-primes, and post-primes can and should be defined, weighted against each other, and compared between players. also interesting for reflecting on who is/was an ATG in reality or in talent!
issue with this narrative is that Alcaraz consistently goes 50-50 vs Djokovic And Sinner in long (7+) rallies (usually tinged a bit in Alcaraz's favor, but that bit tends to be 1-2 point margins lol). i think we'd expect to see some disparity if the matchup issue was about Djokovic having access to a well of variety, point construction, counter-punching, etc. that Sinner doesn't have access to. meanwhile Sinner was 50-50 in long rallies vs Djokovic in his YEC '23 and Davis Cup '23 wins, even clearly losing at AO '24, and only pulled away from Shanghai '24 on! so i think the real explanation has to do with serve-return dynamics being totally different, where Sinner's 1st serve and 2nd return are respectively much more potent and reliable vs the field and Djokovic, to the point of giving him a clear edge in short points, and then bleeding over into longer points where Djokovic has to press too much
(btw this ~50-50 situation is not uncommon, e.g. it was the case even for Fedole at AO '11 SF and YEC '12 F)
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RS
Bionic Poster
It's not going to be a regular thing just once in a while.
This seems skewed. Everyone knows Tsonga had health issues before his breakthrough when he reached the finals of the 2008 Australian Open. Then, he had a knee injury that caused him to miss the 2008 French Open. After that, his results the next 7 years were:
2009: the loss to del Potro in the 4th round that we're discussing
2010: made it to the 4th round where he was injured in his match with Youzhny and had to retire
2011: lost a tight five setter against Wawrinka in the third round
2012: epic five set loss to Djokovic in the QF when he had match points
2013: SF loss to Ferrer
2014: 4th round loss to Djokovic
2015: SF loss to Wawrinka
This is pretty clear evidence that Tsonga was a threat at the French Open.
If we applied your same analysis to Tsonga at the 2008 Australian Open (hadn't done much on hard courts before then), it would make it look like Tsonga at that event "wasn't even a fake test" when we all know that's far from the truth.
RS
Bionic Poster
Cheers.
Angrybirdstar
Professional
well no
1. even before AO '08 itself, Tsonga had taken a set off AO '07 Roddick and beaten '08 Hewitt in Adelaide
2. Tsonga at any point past the 1st round was clearly a real test, given that he'd passed a real test in beating Murray
3. Tsonga in that tournament was clearly a real test, given his level in beating Murray, Gasquet, and Youzhny, even before GOATing against Nadal and maintaining a high level against Djokovic
in this RG '09 case, Tsonga didn't have any comparable pre-tournament wins or form, didn't have any comparable tournament-form-testing wins (unless you put a lot of weight on '09 Monaco for some reason), and didn't have comparable form in the match in question (unless barely reaching 30% RPW in a single set vs del Potro is some big achievement)
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
I revisited the 09 semi-final this morning for the first time in years. I wasn't very impressed. Felt like the match only dragged on for 5 because Fed was so nervy. I don't see how Delpo survives an opponent who can hit just as big as he can off both wings while possessing significantly better stamina and defense. Delpo's own movement is going to get exposed way too much because the big hitting will push him back and then he'll get exposed with drop shots even worse than he was in 2018 against Nadal.
Alcaraz in 4
Alcaraz in 4
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
The best duality of men on TTW:
@TennisFan3 and @StrongRule
@metsman and @MeatTornado
@Kralingen and Good Bets
abmk
Bionic Poster
a) Alcaraz doesn't hit as big as delpo off the FH. delpo of RG 09 was hitting bigger off the bh too
b) delpo served way bigger and better than alcaraz did
c) alcaraz was down 2 sets to love vs Sinner
d) federer with his excellent drop shots, slice, net play couldn't expose delpo in RG 09 (unlike their previous matches) because delpo was zoned in
e) federer wasn't nervy in this match (unlike Haas match immediately after nadal upset). why would he be nervous? he had got over the nadal upset surprise and played very well vs monfils. owned delpo till then being 4-0 and not even losing a set including in Madrid 09. and of course Fed GOATed in the final vs soderling after this semi. fed could've returned more aggressively on 2nd serves but that's about it.
f) delpo had 31.6% serves unreturned vs fed in 2009 RG semi (53/168)
alcaraz had 18% serves unreturned vs sinner in RG 2015 final (35/194)
that's the biggest difference between them, not the movement.
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Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Good observations, I always value the eye test. Here we have some simple stats to get a rough picture of how he stacks up. Del Po has low backhand potency compared to this strong line-up, slices a lot for a modern ATP player and isn't able to use his forehand that much. When he does his huge weapon is one of the most potent in history.
Murray was happy to counter-slice so that variability you saw was quite expected.
Sinneraz has steadily shifted towards a higher percentage of forehands and might not be done yet. Daniil and Sasha love to wear the opposition down with deep cc exchanges as their forehand isn't, relative to the tour, as strong..
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
Here we have the stats, they need some editing due to the new forum patch :/
Del Po is one of the most fascinating players on tour. Surprisingly grindy for such a tall lad...
| Player | FH/GS | BH Slice% | FHP/Match | FHP/100 | BHP/Match | BHP/100 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 45.7% | 7.7% | 6.5 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| Novak Djokovic | 49.1% | 14.2% | 12.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Alexander Zverev | 48.6% | 11.7% | 4.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Jannik Sinner | 51.0% | 6.2% | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 52.8% | 15.9% | 10.2 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Andy Murray | 49.1% | 24.3% | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Taylor Fritz | 50.8% | 6.0% | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Juan Martin del Potro | 48.1% | 27.8% | 11.5 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Del Po is one of the most fascinating players on tour. Surprisingly grindy for such a tall lad...
NatF
Bionic Poster
This is where stat only merchants fall flat on their face. Delpo only started slicing alot after his wrist surgery - this is 2009 Delpo. In the match in question he only sliced 31 times in the whole match, compared to 202 topspin drives.
Rovesciarete
Hall of Fame
12% would still a lot on clay - twice as much as some top players on all surfaces these days. He started to slice even more later due to his writs and likely also due to his legs, as he could no longer cover that wing as well.
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RS
Bionic Poster
I wasn't dragging you. I was more point out it doesn't seem to a absurd opinion among even Fed fans.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Del Potro lived with big 3 even post gazillion surgeries off the ground. Clay was clearly his weakest surface though and I agree Alcaraz would be the favourite but I don't see what supports that Alcaraz would beat him in 3 sets like majority of poll is showing.
RS
Bionic Poster
Vote.
zagor
Bionic Poster
Yeah, it's kinda ridiculous. People are acting like Alcaraz dominated the tourney when the reality is he was leaking sets left and right and was on the brink of losing in the final.
Blame it on Sinner for not finishing the job and derailing the hype train a bit I guess. Now we have to endure the Alcaraz better than the big 3 nonsense.
abmk
Bionic Poster
has Friends episode flashback. They know....
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