Del Potro RG 2009 vs Alcaraz RG 2025 who wins?

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12% would still a lot on clay - twice as much as some top players on all surfaces these days. He started to slice even more later due to his writs and likely also due to his legs, as he could no longer cover that wing as well.
Sure, now how many of those were in response to being pulled forward by a Federer dropshot or a low slice from Federer himself? What one dimensional players like Medvedev or Zverev or Fritz (LOL) do on clay is hardly the barometer for quality. The fact that the best clay players on your list Djokovic and Alcaraz both sliced more than 12% kinda shoots your argument in the foot right?
 
I revisited the 09 semi-final this morning for the first time in years. I wasn't very impressed. Felt like the match only dragged on for 5 because Fed was so nervy. I don't see how Delpo survives an opponent who can hit just as big as he can off both wings while possessing significantly better stamina and defense. Delpo's own movement is going to get exposed way too much because the big hitting will push him back and then he'll get exposed with drop shots even worse than he was in 2018 against Nadal.

Alcaraz in 4
I'd ageee with you if his opponent was someone that showed he could dominate the tournament easily, but that's not the case. Almost every player of his draw made him sweat, Musetti who's somewhat of specialist had him on the ropes before he got injured and Sinner playing literal hc tennis was outplaying him until he was 1 point away from winning. And it's not like Sinner played some insane match to reach that point. His serve was pretty terrible, and his general game was patchy, as he started the match slowly, couldn't serve out for the 2nd and played a rather terrible 3rd set.
 
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Sure, now how many of those were in response to being pulled forward by a Federer dropshot or a low slice from Federer himself? What one dimensional players like Medvedev or Zverev or Fritz (LOL) do on clay is hardly the barometer for quality. The fact that the best clay players on your list Djokovic and Alcaraz both sliced more than 12% kinda shoots your argument in the foot right?


Usually when I write, I assume that most posters have a certain level of knowledge of the game, among them that Del Potro sliced a lot more after the injury. I also used to think that most assume the same regarding me. My error, I will try to give a bit more context next time to make things plainer. Still wouldn't help always, for example, you should have understood those numbers are averages across surfaces and their respective careers.

I also rewatched the famous SF against Federer in RG. While I remembered his brutal forehand well, his movement seems in retrospect more sluggish. Obviously, tennis has evolved in the last fifteen years, but he was also so young. Maybe too young for one of his sizes for the loads he faced.

Roger employed the wide serve drop shot combo well, moved Delpo around, or tried to avoid angles off neutral points. Plus points for some nice lobs by the Argentinian.
 
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I revisited the 09 semi-final this morning for the first time in years. I wasn't very impressed. Felt like the match only dragged on for 5 because Fed was so nervy. I don't see how Delpo survives an opponent who can hit just as big as he can off both wings while possessing significantly better stamina and defense. Delpo's own movement is going to get exposed way too much because the big hitting will push him back and then he'll get exposed with drop shots even worse than he was in 2018 against Nadal.

Alcaraz in 4

This sums up my view pretty well, his recovery out of the corners seems suspect now. While not getting challenged as much vertically, I can't see Del Potro having much fun on clay against the shot quality of Sinner from both wings. More of a chance than against the Carlitos package but winning maybe 2-3 out of 10 in a Bo5.
 
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I revisited the 09 semi-final this morning for the first time in years. I wasn't very impressed. Felt like the match only dragged on for 5 because Fed was so nervy. I don't see how Delpo survives an opponent who can hit just as big as he can off both wings while possessing significantly better stamina and defense. Delpo's own movement is going to get exposed way too much because the big hitting will push him back and then he'll get exposed with drop shots even worse than he was in 2018 against Nadal.

Alcaraz in 4
He needed 5 to beat Z
 
Usually when I write, I assume that most posters have a certain level of knowledge of the game, among them that Del Potro sliced a lot more after the injury. I also used to think that most assume the same regarding me. My error, I will try to give a bit more context next time to make things plainer. Still wouldn't help always, for example, you should have understood those numbers are averages across surfaces and their respective careers.

I also rewatched the famous SF against Federer in RG. While I remembered his brutal forehand well, his movement seems in retrospect more sluggish. Obviously, tennis has evolved in the last fifteen years, but he was also so young. Maybe too young for one of his sizes for the loads he faced.

Roger employed the wide serve drop shot combo well, moved Delpo around, or tried to avoid angles off neutral points. Plus points for some nice lobs by the Argentinian.
Why should I make any such assumptions considering the quality of posting on this site? Plus I understood that you were using career numbers for Delpo to describe his play before crippling wrist injuries, which makes zero sense.
 
Why should I make any such assumptions considering the quality of posting on this site? Plus I understood that you were using career numbers for Delpo to describe his play before crippling wrist injuries, which makes zero sense.


I expect more than a basic level of knowledge of tennis history when responding to a guy like @Angrybirdstar. Good that you have now understood that I was using career numbers for relevant players with a strong two-handed backhand.

If you are unable to process why a couple of strong reference points help to further discussion about a player, then it is your problem, not mine.
 
I revisited the 09 semi-final this morning for the first time in years. I wasn't very impressed. Felt like the match only dragged on for 5 because Fed was so nervy. I don't see how Delpo survives an opponent who can hit just as big as he can off both wings while possessing significantly better stamina and defense. Delpo's own movement is going to get exposed way too much because the big hitting will push him back and then he'll get exposed with drop shots even worse than he was in 2018 against Nadal.

Alcaraz in 4
So you weren't that impressed with the 09 SF. Interesting.

Out of curiosity what was your opinion on the USO 09 F they played later in the year?
 
I expect more than a basic level of knowledge of tennis history when responding to a guy like @Angrybirdstar. Good that you have now understood that I was using career numbers for relevant players with a strong two-handed backhand.

If you are unable to process why a couple of strong reference points help to further discussion about a player, then it is your problem, not mine.
I understood from the beginning lol. Hence why I called out your post. Are you being deliberately dense?

If you can't understand why using career stats for Del Potro is a brain dead move when looking at his play in 2009 then perhaps it's you who lacks basic knowledge of tennis "history" and apparently common sense too.

But please tell me more about how Fritz's proportion of backhand slices is indicative of anything :-D
 
f you can't understand why using career stats for Del Potro is a brain dead move when looking at his play in 2009 then perhaps it's you who lacks basic knowledge of tennis "history" and apparently common sense too.

But please tell me more about how Fritz's proportion of backhand slices is indicative of anything :-D

I have been rather civil with you even if you showed a lack of insight and basic courtesy. Thanks for showing that you have for now nothing intelligent to add. You can stay a while on my ignore list. Bye mate!
 
I have been rather civil with you even if you showed a lack of insight and basic courtesy. Thanks for showing that you have for now nothing intelligent to add. You can stay a while on my ignore list. Bye mate!
I showed a lack of insight ok lol. Says the guy who's thinks 2017 Slice'Potro has relevance when talking about backhand potency for 2009'Potro.
 
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This is where stat only merchants fall flat on their face. Delpo only started slicing alot after his wrist surgery - this is 2009 Delpo. In the match in question he only sliced 31 times in the whole match, compared to 202 topspin drives.
Except you just quoted a pretty easy to find stat to debunk the "stat merchants". So stat merchants is too kind really it's more of a "completely clueless tennis observer who sometimes uses stats, sometimes doesn't, but always produces some nonsensical take".
 
I'm happy this thread resulted in a clear Alcaraz >> 09 Fed, good job @RS

Looking forward to a similar take being produced after Wimbledon
 
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Except you just quoted a pretty easy to find stat to debunk the "stat merchants". So stat merchants is too kind really it's more of a "completely clueless tennis observer who sometimes uses stats, sometimes doesn't, but always produces some nonsensical take".
I'm the one who lacks insight though :(
 
Alcaraz was so beatable this FO.
Hasn't Alcaraz always been so beatable in the majors that he's won?

At the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz saved a match point against Sinner in the quarter final in the fourth set, went 5 sets against Tiafoe in the semi final, and then won a close 4-setter against Ruud in the final
At 2023 Wimbledon, the momentum of the final against Djokovic was very back and forth. Djokovic had set point for a 2-0 sets lead. Alcaraz won 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4
At the 2024 French Open, Alcaraz beat Sinner in 5 sets (far less intense than the 2025 final though) and had to come from 1-2 down in sets to beat Zverev in the final
At 2024 Wimbledon, Alcaraz had to come from 1-2 down in sets against Tiafoe in the third round, and was pushed to 4 sets in his fourth round, quarter final and semi final. The final was very impressive though, beating Djokovic in straight sets
At the 2025 French Open, Sinner looks invincible until Djokovic pushed him a bit in the semi final, while Alcaraz drops sets to Marozsan, Dzumhur, Shelton and Musetti. Then that final win against Sinner from 4-6, 6-7, 3-5 and 3 CPs down.
 
Hasn't Alcaraz always been so beatable in the majors that he's won?

At the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz saved a match point against Sinner in the quarter final in the fourth set, went 5 sets against Tiafoe in the semi final, and then won a close 4-setter against Ruud in the final
At 2023 Wimbledon, the momentum of the final against Djokovic was very back and forth. Djokovic had set point for a 2-0 sets lead. Alcaraz won 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4
At the 2024 French Open, Alcaraz beat Sinner in 5 sets (far less intense than the 2025 final though) and had to come from 1-2 down in sets to beat Zverev in the final
At 2024 Wimbledon, Alcaraz had to come from 1-2 down in sets against Tiafoe in the third round, and was pushed to 4 sets in his fourth round, quarter final and semi final. The final was very impressive though, beating Djokovic in straight sets
At the 2025 French Open, Sinner looks invincible until Djokovic pushed him a bit in the semi final, while Alcaraz drops sets to Marozsan, Dzumhur, Shelton and Musetti. Then that final win against Sinner from 4-6, 6-7, 3-5 and 3 CPs down.
Weird he has been so up and down for all his first 5 wins. Not really sure what it is he looks unplayable or off there doesn't seem to be much a middle base.

He makes up for it with clutch though which he is.
 
Hopefully Raz does well for that one to happen. He gets bounced out on HC sometimes so that might spoil it :-D
Winning the Australian Open to complete the non-calendar slam will bring big changes to certain POV, I would think. But then, maybe not. Maybe he gets bounced in round 1 by Nishikori.
 
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Winning the Australian Open to complete the non-calendar slam will bring big changes to certain POV, I would think. But then, maybe not. Maybe he gets bounced in round 1 by Nishikori.
True but to match him up at the USO which is like the most open slam in recent times will make some good threads.
 
Weird he has been so up and down for all his first 5 wins. Not really sure what it is he looks unplayable or off there doesn't seem to be much a middle base.

He makes up for it with clutch though which he is.
Ferrero described it pretty well. He said that Alcaraz wants to play great tennis all the time, and it isn't realistic, so he gets impatient and is very up and down with his focus and with his level of play.
 
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Ferrero described it pretty well. He said that Alcaraz wants to play great tennis all the time, and it isn't realistic, so he gets impatient and is very up and down with his focus and with his level of play.
The expectation was like RG 2023 which he ironically didn't win actually before he cramped up. He looked quite consistent there.
 
The expectation was like RG 2023 which he ironically didn't win and actually before he cramped up. He looked quite consistent there.
In 2023, Alcaraz was obviously 2 years younger, and with his personality he was likely extremely anxious the night before to get the match against Djokovic started already. He basically overthought things, got too anxious and cramped up. It's a fine line. Not having any nerves is a bad sign because it means that you are either underestimating your opponent or that you simply don't care enough about whether you win or lose the match. So you should have some nerves, but never too many nerves where you could cramp up or choke because of the occasion of the match.
 
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I expect more than a basic level of knowledge of tennis history when responding to a guy like @Angrybirdstar
help what is this glazing as offense maneuver. hop off Nat; i guarantee he has more tennis history knowledge than me. (also not a guy)
If you are unable to process why a couple of strong reference points help to further discussion about a player,
Medvedev and Fritz are mid on clay, and their BHs aren't really suited to the surface (a little too flat and/or slow), so they don't really tell us much. meanwhile i'd say Sinner and Zv*rev are good potential comps for '09 del Potro's BH ballstriking (weight, consistency, contact points, variety or lack thereof), but...

1. their lesser ability and willingness to slice neutrally/when counterpunching (ofc made up for by their better 2hBH defense/counterpunching) doesn't necessarily indicate that their BHs were better from neutral/offensive-neutral

2. drawing conclusions about '09 del Potro's BH from a single statistic (charted slice %), that is skewed by surface and career arc, is a fool's errand

3. went to check the Janlitos match chart. turns out Sinner went 5 (winners + induced errors)-13 (UEs) in basic BH trades (cross + middle) and 14-8 in finishers (line + IO), while Alcaraz went 11-14 and 8-5 respectively. also, Alcaraz was more FH hungry and/or better at pinning Sinner to the BH (either are ofc ideal clay strategy) - 52.2% vs 48.6% FHs. the FH numbers were also more favorable to Alcaraz than Sinner

4. suggests to me that unless one thinks (dubiously, imo) that del Potro's BH ballstriking was much better than Sinner's (to make up for the movement gap), Alcaraz would clearly come out on top in that regard (FHs are another matter; i can see an argument in either direction)
Weird he has been so up and down for all his first 5 wins. Not really sure what it is he looks unplayable or off there doesn't seem to be much a middle base.

He makes up for it with clutch though which he is.
at least part of it is match management i think. the baseline points were pretty clearly in Alcaraz's favor, the net points weren't a big factor either way, serve-return was only a small edge for Sinner (~22% vs ~18% URS%), and yet it was that close because of when and how Alcaraz's level dipped (which i think usually showed up in the serve+1 type rallies, the only place where Sinner had any noticeable edge)
 
help what is this glazing as offense maneuver. hop off Nat; i guarantee he has more tennis history knowledge than me. (also not a guy)

Medvedev and Fritz are mid on clay, and their BHs aren't really suited to the surface (a little too flat and/or slow), so they don't really tell us much. meanwhile i'd say Sinner and Zv*rev are good potential comps for '09 del Potro's BH ballstriking (weight, consistency, contact points, variety or lack thereof), but...

1. their lesser ability and willingness to slice neutrally/when counterpunching (ofc made up for by their better 2hBH defense/counterpunching) doesn't necessarily indicate that their BHs were better from neutral/offensive-neutral

2. drawing conclusions about '09 del Potro's BH from a single statistic (charted slice %), that is skewed by surface and career arc, is a fool's errand

3. went to check the Janlitos match chart. turns out Sinner went 5 (winners + induced errors)-13 (UEs) in basic BH trades (cross + middle) and 14-8 in finishers (line + IO), while Alcaraz went 11-14 and 8-5 respectively. also, Alcaraz was more FH hungry and/or better at pinning Sinner to the BH (either are ofc ideal clay strategy) - 52.2% vs 48.6% FHs. the FH numbers were also more favorable to Alcaraz than Sinner

4. suggests to me that unless one thinks (dubiously, imo) that del Potro's BH ballstriking was much better than Sinner's (to make up for the movement gap), Alcaraz would clearly come out on top in that regard (FHs are another matter; i can see an argument in either direction)

at least part of it is match management i think. the baseline points were pretty clearly in Alcaraz's favor, the net points weren't a big factor either way, serve-return was only a small edge for Sinner (~22% vs ~18% URS%), and yet it was that close because of when and how Alcaraz's level dipped (which i think usually showed up in the serve+1 type rallies, the only place where Sinner had any noticeable edge)
Perhaps point management comes into but it's happened for a good part of his first 5 slam wins at least for now seems a pattern.
 
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