Demon 2024

Meles

Bionic Poster
He wasn't very good against the best:oops:
But then something happened over the last year or so versus the top 10:
12‑Feb‑2024RotterdamHardF
L​
4​
(1)Jannik Sinner [ITA] d. (5)De Minaur7-5 6-4
12‑Feb‑2024RotterdamHardQF
W​
5​
(5)De Minaur d. (2)Andrey Rublev [RUS]7-6(5) 4-6 6-3
15‑Jan‑2024Australian OpenHardR16
L​
5​
(5)Andrey Rublev [RUS] d. (10)De Minaur6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardSF
W​
7​
De Minaur d. Alexander Zverev [GER]5-7 6-3 6-4
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardQF
W​
1​
De Minaur d. Novak Djokovic [SRB]6-4 6-4
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardRR
W​
10​
De Minaur d. Taylor Fritz [USA]6-4 6-2
30-10-2023Paris MastersHard (i)QFLAndrey Rublev (5) d. Alex De Minaur (13)4-6 6-3 6-1 Stats
30-10-2023Paris MastersHard (i)R16WAlex De Minaur (13) d. Jannik Sinner (4)W/O
28-09-2023BeijingHardR16LDaniil Medvedev (2) d. Alex De Minaur7-6(3) 6-3 Stats
28-08-2023US OpenHardR16LDaniil Medvedev (3) d. Alex De Minaur (13)2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardFLJannik Sinner (7) d. Alex De Minaur6-4 6-1 Stats
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardQFWAlex De Minaur d. Daniil Medvedev (2)7-6(7) 7-5
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardR16WAlex De Minaur d. Taylor Harry Fritz (8)7-6(7) 4-6 6-1 Stats
31-07-2023Los CabosHardFLStefanos Tsitsipas (1) d. Alex De Minaur (5)6-3 6-4 Stats
19-06-2023LondonGrassFLCarlos Alcaraz Garfia (1) d. Alex De Minaur (7)6-4 6-4 Stats
19-06-2023LondonGrassSFWAlex De Minaur (7) d. Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (2)6-3 7-6(2) Stats
17-04-2023BarcelonaClayQFLStefanos Tsitsipas (2) d. Alex De Minaur (8)6-4 6-2 Stats
27-02-2023AcapulcoHardSFWAlex De Minaur (8) d. Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (4)3-6 7-5 6-2 Stats
13-02-2023RotterdamHard (i)R32WAlex De Minaur d. Andrey Rublev (2)6-4 6-4 Stats
16-01-2023Australian OpenHardR16LNovak Djokovic (4) d. Alex De Minaur (22)6-2 6-1 6-2
02-01-2023United CupHardRRWAlex De Minaur (7) d. Rafael Nadal (4)3-6 6-1 7-5

With his return game nicely lifting starting in 2023 and now the serve game seems a bit better (still not great) in 2024 De Minaur is beating top 10 players with regularity and only the best servers seem to be able to keep him at arms length.

He seems on course to make tour finals and with his improved movement and stamina he's a player you don't want in your draw.

I've been ignoring him, but watching him play in 2024 he's very close to the level of Nadal, Murray, and prime Djokovic for movement and perhaps a touch more tenacity. What is worse is if you try to break out of the rallies with him by injecting pace well you're just playing into his hands as De Minaur excels at counter punching and using his opponent's power. I think like his mentor, Lleyton Hewitt, Alex will always be serve deprived, but unlike Hewitt he does not look like injuries are going to cut short/hamper his career as he hits his prime. The Demon's flatter strokes naturally conserve energy as well. His stamina will get considerably better over the next few years and he's going to be a brutal player to deal with.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
… but watching him play in 2024 he's very close to the level of Nadal, Murray, and prime Djokovic for movement and perhaps a touch more tenacity. What is worse is if you try to break out of the rallies with him by injecting pace well you're just playing into his hands as De Minaur excels at counter punching and using his opponent's power. I think like his mentor, Lleyton Hewitt, Alex will always be serve deprived, but unlike Hewitt he does not look like injuries are going to cut short/hamper his career as he hits his prime. The Demon's flatter strokes naturally conserve energy as well. His stamina will get considerably better over the next few years and he's going to be a brutal player to deal with.

Excellent points. Right now in this form he ranks among the top3 hardcourt players. Should be very difficult to put away in IW.
 
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Gerco

Semi-Pro
From a recent interview in spanish media:


What has made you find your best level?

“I think it has been a little bit of several things, but in the end the mental change has been the most important thing, it has been a change of chip that I have had at the beginning of this year in which I have told myself that I am going to be more aggressive and I will to play face to face against the best in the world. Against them, running only from side to side was not working for me. That has been the step forward that I have taken and the plan is to continue like this, continue strong, to see how far I can go.”
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
I think a lot of players will rise up in the rankings if they decided to play more aggressive. Most of them have more shot tolerance and capability to play offensively than they give themselves credit for - this is particularly a trap for the quicker players who find it tempting to run around and outlast opponents on defense. Being more aggressive includes hitting/serving closer to the lines also.

Djokovic wins more when he is offensive and now that he is older, he is living with that mindset. Wish Murray had adopted this attitude for more of his career too. Medvedev, Zverev, Paul and many others should listen to this also.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Excellent points. Right now in this form he ranks among the top3 hardcourt players. Should be very difficult to put away in IW.
What? Djoko, Carlos, and Sinner surely better. I'd also rate some of the big servers over him. Michelson destroyed him recently. He's good, but top 3 is too bold.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
From a recent interview in spanish media:


What has made you find your best level?

“I think it has been a little bit of several things, but in the end the mental change has been the most important thing, it has been a change of chip that I have had at the beginning of this year in which I have told myself that I am going to be more aggressive and I will to play face to face against the best in the world. Against them, running only from side to side was not working for me. That has been the step forward that I have taken and the plan is to continue like this, continue strong, to see how far I can go.”
The stats back up that change in 2024 and really once you reach age 25 there is no hope of improving your return numbers. Wawrinka excelled at an older age, but that was all offense/serve and not return. For me the critical jump was his return level which probably won him Acapulco in 2023, but if he says his agression has been adjusted well this may be a perfect storm.

I have 0 confidence in his clay game in 2024, but we will see. The Demon needs more raw power on clay and I'm not seeing much change in that direction.
 

Tennisfan339

Professional
Have to admit, for someone who just got into the top-10, he has some impressive H2H against a lot of the current top players
5-0 against Paul
5-3 against Fritz
4-3 against Rublev
2-0 against Ruud
3-2 against Dimitrov
Balanced H2H against Rune, Djokovic, Hurkacz, Khachanov

He has finally beaten Tsitsipas after 10L. Huge win for him.
His stats against Medvedev and Zverev are not good but he's beaten both twice.
He had 3 match points against Alcaraz in Barcelona. He lost, but I'm sure he'll beat him at some point.

People saying he doesn't belong in the top-10 are running out of arguments at this point. He is #3 in the Live Race. And has almost nothing to defend until the Queen's. If he keeps this form, he's going to be top-6 very soon.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
He wasn't very good against the best:oops:
But then something happened over the last year or so versus the top 10:
12‑Feb‑2024RotterdamHardF
L​
4​
(1)Jannik Sinner [ITA] d. (5)De Minaur7-5 6-4
12‑Feb‑2024RotterdamHardQF
W​
5​
(5)De Minaur d. (2)Andrey Rublev [RUS]7-6(5) 4-6 6-3
15‑Jan‑2024Australian OpenHardR16
L​
5​
(5)Andrey Rublev [RUS] d. (10)De Minaur6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardSF
W​
7​
De Minaur d. Alexander Zverev [GER]5-7 6-3 6-4
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardQF
W​
1​
De Minaur d. Novak Djokovic [SRB]6-4 6-4
1‑Jan‑2024United CupHardRR
W​
10​
De Minaur d. Taylor Fritz [USA]6-4 6-2
30-10-2023Paris MastersHard (i)QFLAndrey Rublev (5) d. Alex De Minaur (13)4-6 6-3 6-1 Stats
30-10-2023Paris MastersHard (i)R16WAlex De Minaur (13) d. Jannik Sinner (4)W/O
28-09-2023BeijingHardR16LDaniil Medvedev (2) d. Alex De Minaur7-6(3) 6-3 Stats
28-08-2023US OpenHardR16LDaniil Medvedev (3) d. Alex De Minaur (13)2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardFLJannik Sinner (7) d. Alex De Minaur6-4 6-1 Stats
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardQFWAlex De Minaur d. Daniil Medvedev (2)7-6(7) 7-5
07-08-2023Toronto MastersHardR16WAlex De Minaur d. Taylor Harry Fritz (8)7-6(7) 4-6 6-1 Stats
31-07-2023Los CabosHardFLStefanos Tsitsipas (1) d. Alex De Minaur (5)6-3 6-4 Stats
19-06-2023LondonGrassFLCarlos Alcaraz Garfia (1) d. Alex De Minaur (7)6-4 6-4 Stats
19-06-2023LondonGrassSFWAlex De Minaur (7) d. Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (2)6-3 7-6(2) Stats
17-04-2023BarcelonaClayQFLStefanos Tsitsipas (2) d. Alex De Minaur (8)6-4 6-2 Stats
27-02-2023AcapulcoHardSFWAlex De Minaur (8) d. Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (4)3-6 7-5 6-2 Stats
13-02-2023RotterdamHard (i)R32WAlex De Minaur d. Andrey Rublev (2)6-4 6-4 Stats
16-01-2023Australian OpenHardR16LNovak Djokovic (4) d. Alex De Minaur (22)6-2 6-1 6-2
02-01-2023United CupHardRRWAlex De Minaur (7) d. Rafael Nadal (4)3-6 6-1 7-5

With his return game nicely lifting starting in 2023 and now the serve game seems a bit better (still not great) in 2024 De Minaur is beating top 10 players with regularity and only the best servers seem to be able to keep him at arms length.

He seems on course to make tour finals and with his improved movement and stamina he's a player you don't want in your draw.

I've been ignoring him, but watching him play in 2024 he's very close to the level of Nadal, Murray, and prime Djokovic for movement and perhaps a touch more tenacity. What is worse is if you try to break out of the rallies with him by injecting pace well you're just playing into his hands as De Minaur excels at counter punching and using his opponent's power. I think like his mentor, Lleyton Hewitt, Alex will always be serve deprived, but unlike Hewitt he does not look like injuries are going to cut short/hamper his career as he hits his prime. The Demon's flatter strokes naturally conserve energy as well. His stamina will get considerably better over the next few years and he's going to be a brutal player to deal with.

He's already a brutal player to deal with and will probably become even more so.
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Have to admit, for someone who just got into the top-10, he has some impressive H2H against a lot of the current top players
5-0 against Paul
5-3 against Fritz
4-3 against Rublev
2-0 against Ruud
3-2 against Dimitrov
Balanced H2H against Rune, Djokovic, Hurkacz, Khachanov

He has finally beaten Tsitsipas after 10L. Huge win for him.
His stats against Medvedev and Zverev are not good but he's beaten both twice.
He had 3 match points against Alcaraz in Barcelona. He lost, but I'm sure he'll beat him at some point.

People saying he doesn't belong in the top-10 are running out of arguments at this point. He is #3 in the Live Race. And has almost nothing to defend until the Queen's. If he keeps this form, he's going to be top-6 very soon.
Wow. Basically those are pretty big servers keeping him at bay and he just beat Zedzilla at United Cup and with Medvedev's serve decidely worse after the early 2023 string change, the Demon will have his chances.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
I think a lot of players will rise up in the rankings if they decided to play more aggressive. Most of them have more shot tolerance and capability to play offensively than they give themselves credit for - this is particularly a trap for the quicker players who find it tempting to run around and outlast opponents on defense. Being more aggressive includes hitting/serving closer to the lines also.

Djokovic wins more when he is offensive and now that he is older, he is living with that mindset. Wish Murray had adopted this attitude for more of his career too. Medvedev, Zverev, Paul and many others should listen to this also.
So you're saying all Alcaraz needs to do to get back on top is go for the lines more? :eek:
 
@Meles Good to see you back! I hope you are well.

On De Manure, a couple of things:

1) It'll be interesting to see how his recent improvement translates onto other surfaces than hard courts. I think he will still be underpowered on clay, as were similar players such as Hewitt and Murray and, among women, Hingis or Radwanska. On grass, he could be very dangerous against all but the very best.
2) In the immediate future, what do you think of his draw at Indian Wells? He starts with Daniel or Galan, which should be no problem. Then, Bublik, Thompson, or a qualifier. On form, he should win that, but it's tricky. Bublik just made the final of Dubai and earlier in February won Montpellier. Thompson recently won Los Cabos. In the fourth round, it's likely to be Zverev, who did poorly in both Mexican events, but who is obviously a very difficult opponent if he plays close to his best. AdM has a 2-6 record against him but did beat him two years in a row at the team cup in Australia. Quarter-final is seeded to be Alcaraz, but given his injury problems could well end up being Khachanov, which is a good draw for the QF of an MS event. Semi-final probably Sinner, and that's obviously as tough a draw as you can get right now, and likely to be curtains: 7-0 H2H, and unlike Tsitsipas, Sinner isn't in a slump. Quite the opposite, in fact. Even recently, he trounced AdM 6-3 6-0 in the Davis Cup final and then beat him in a closer match 7-5 6-4 in the Rotterdam final. AdM has won only one set in their seven matches. So, I give De Manure a decent outside shot of the SFs, but not much chance of the final, unless Sinner loses early. If Rublev were to end up his SF opponent, they split recent matches and both were pretty competitive.
3) My guess is AdM should be better suited to Indian Wells than to Miami, because the thin desert air should suit him better than humid conditions with a slow hard court. But it could be a solid sunshine double for him - it'd be helpful, with clay looming.
 
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Ironically I think a stark lack of precision in basically everything he does is Alcaraz’s biggest flaw. He would be 100% better off going for the lines (with less pace).

How is going for the lines an appropriate tactic for someone with lack of precision? It makes him likely to miss even more often. Wouldn't it be better to play a bit safer while working on his precision in practice? Or are you imagining two steps back so as to take three steps forward (e.g. he'll miss but it's the only way to become more accurate)?
 

Kralingen

Bionic Poster
How is going for the lines an appropriate tactic for someone with lack of precision? It makes him likely to miss even more often. Wouldn't it be better to play a bit safer while working on his precision in practice? Or are you imagining two steps back so as to take three steps forward (e.g. he'll miss but it's the only way to become more accurate)?
Basically shifting the sliders on the value propositions behind his shot choices. Currently he hits at near 90-95% effort and power and uses that raw force to make up for the lacking precision. Could he be much more precise if he hit at 80% effort?

Maybe maybe not. But my view is that it would help him long term to try.
 
Basically shifting the sliders on the value propositions behind his shot choices. Currently he hits at near 90-95% effort and power and uses that raw force to make up for the lacking precision. Could he be much more precise if he hit at 80% effort?

Maybe maybe not. But my view is that it would help him long term to try.

I agree with this post, but it seems to me that there should be a few stages to an attempt to become more precise:

Stage 1: Dial back the power AND try to play within the lines.
Stage 2: Continue to dial back the power but now try to play a bit closer to the lines.
Stage 3: Continue to play a bit closer to the lines and now try to step the power back up a bit.

Movement between stages dependent on successful completion of the stage in question. Also, if the goals were different, stages 2 and 3 might be reversed. But we know that Alcaraz can hit the ball very hard, so the greater priority is learning to hit the ball precisely. Hence prioritizing precision means stage 2 before stage 3. For De Manure, it'd probably be more important to hit a bit harder before trying to hit more accurately, given that his weakness is lack of firepower.
 
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BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
The great Meles has returned!
Welcome back, Meles!

happy-dance-gif-12.gif
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
"When I play my best, I'm dangerous" - Alex De Minaur
I hope he faces Djokovic at IW and gets destroyed to put his "great form" into perspective. I have nothing personally against Demon, but his game is boring af and it's not good to have a pusher winning events. Luckily clay season is coming up, so after the sunshine double we won't hear from Alex again until Queen's.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I hope he faces Djokovic at IW and gets destroyed. I have nothing personally against Demon, but his game is boring af and it's not good to have a pusher winning events. Luckily clay season is coming up, so after the sunshine double we won't hear from Alex again until Queen's.

But you have to admit that he is getting the absolute maximum out of his game and abilities.
 
Basically shifting the sliders on the value propositions behind his shot choices. Currently he hits at near 90-95% effort and power and uses that raw force to make up for the lacking precision. Could he be much more precise if he hit at 80% effort?

Maybe maybe not. But my view is that it would help him long term to try.
Tio Toni would be the perfect coach for him.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Meles Good to see you back! I hope you are well.

On De Manure, a couple of things:

1) It'll be interesting to see how his recent improvement translates onto other surfaces than hard courts. I think he will still be underpowered on clay, as were similar players such as Hewitt and Murray and, among women, Hingis or Radwanska. On grass, he could be very dangerous against all but the very best.
2) In the immediate future, what do you think of his draw at Indian Wells? He starts with Daniel or Galan, which should be no problem. Then, Bublik, Thompson, or a qualifier. On form, he should win that, but it's tricky. Bublik just made the final of Dubai and earlier in February won Montpellier. Thompson recently won Los Cabos. In the fourth round, it's likely to be Zverev, who did poorly in both Mexican events, but who is obviously a very difficult opponent if he plays close to his best. AdM has a 2-6 record against him but did beat him two years in a row at the team cup in Australia. Quarter-final is seeded to be Alcaraz, but given his injury problems could well end up being Khachanov, which is a good draw for the QF of an MS event. Semi-final probably Sinner, and that's obviously as tough a draw as you can get right now, and likely to be curtains: 7-0 H2H, and unlike Tsitsipas, Sinner isn't in a slump. Quite the opposite, in fact. Even recently, he trounced AdM 6-3 6-0 in the Davis Cup final and then beat him in a closer match 7-5 6-4 in the Rotterdam final. AdM has won only one set in their seven matches. So, I De Manure a decent outside shot of the SFs, but not much chance of the final, unless Sinner loses early. If Rublev were to end up his SF opponent, they split recent matches and both were pretty competitive.
3) My guess is AdM should be better suited to Indian Wells than to Miami, because the thin desert air should suit him better than humid conditions with a slow hard court. But it could be a solid sunshine double for him - it'd be helpful, with clay looming.
On the mend, but I've been lazing on a discord server and watching a lot of tennis rest assured.

It it a short turnaround so "Manure" might be the right call for IW. I think he can play on any type of hard court or fast court; Acapulco results say gritty hard with some heat is good.

I think Sinner is too much with his ever improving serve game and just better across the board except maybe for the tenacity factor where Sinner is no slouch.
 
He is now officially an Elo 2000 player, and I think it is fair to say that he is now in his prime.
Top 3 ELO on the year—I know it will drop, but that’s really impressive after two months of play. His peak ELO is above Norrie’s, Khachs Nov’ s, Fog’s, Paul’s, Hurk’s, and Tiafoe’s respective peak ELOs.
 

Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
Top 3 ELO on the year—I know it will drop, but that’s really impressive after two months of play. His peak ELO is above Norrie’s, Khachs Nov’ s, Fog’s, Paul’s, Hurk’s, and Tiafoe’s respective peak ELOs.
More to come. Until building a Wawrinkish type of career, he shouldn't stop
 

NeutralFan

G.O.A.T.
Top 3 ELO on the year—I know it will drop, but that’s really impressive after two months of play. His peak ELO is above Norrie’s, Khachs Nov’ s, Fog’s, Paul’s, Hurk’s, and Tiafoe’s respective peak ELOs.

You think he will be a greater pusher than Giles Simon?
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
On the mend, but I've been lazing on a discord server and watching a lot of tennis rest assured.

It it a short turnaround so "Manure" might be the right call for IW. I think he can play on any type of hard court or fast court; Acapulco results say gritty hard with some heat is good.

I think Sinner is too much with his ever improving serve game and just better across the board except maybe for the tenacity factor where Sinner is no slouch.
Its good to see you back!
 
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