travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Discuss and vote in the anonymous poll.
Did 40-15 decide the GOAT title?
- Thread starter travlerajm
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travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
If Roger had won one more point, he would have defeated his two Big3 rivals at age 38 back to back in the biggest slam event. It would have sealed his legacy by making his resume impassable - no matter what Djokodal accomplished after that, Fed would still have been better…. but 40-15 happened.
gamelovergold
Semi-Pro
40 15 saga started from us open semifinal. 2019 was redmption time but fedrer failed to convert match point. Win in wimbeldon against arch rivals would have sealed his legacy but.....
TheGoldenEra1990’s
Hall of Fame
Nadal and djoker would have surpassed him regardlesss…. Federer didn’t win enough US open titles IMO. That was his downfall. And that slam was usually open for him dominate longer than he did minus a few peak Nadal form years. . but he could have always argued that if he converted his 40-15. He was elderly for tennis and one point away from beating his two main career rivals back to back. Arguments always would have been made if he won on one of those 2 match points
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Djokovic will is indomitable. He wouldn't quit until he has proven himself as the best.
Neptune
Hall of Fame
Nole is far better and not even close. Why some pretend the difference is only a few matches?
Career | vs Top5 | T5 Weight | vs Top10 | T10 Weight | vs T11+ | T11+ Weight | vs All |
Nole | 202 (123-79) 60.89% | 15.02% | 374 (259-115) 69.25% | 27.81% | 971 (865-106) 89.08% | 72.19% | 1345 (1124-221) 83.57% |
Fed | 179 (104-75) 58.10% | 11.73% | 347 (224-123) 64.55% | 22.74% | 1179 (1027-152) 87.11% | 77.26% | 1526 (1251-275) 81.98% |
Rafa | 156 (93-63) 59.62% | 11.94% | 291 (186-105) 63.92% | 22.26% | 1016 (894-122) 87.99% | 77.74% | 1307 (1080-227) 82.63% |
Lendl | 163 (94-69) 57.67% | 12.44% | 257 (165-92) 64.20% | 19.62% | 1053 (903-150) 85.75% | 80.38% | 1310 (1068-242) 81.53% |
Peak | vs Top5 | T5 Weight | vs Top10 | T10 Weight | vs T11+ | T11+ Weight | vs All | Opp Rank | Opp Elo |
Nole 11-16 | 91 (66-25) 72.53% | 19.08% | 174 (140-34) 80.46% | 36.48% | 303 (287-16) 94.72% | 63.52% | 477 (427-50) 89.52% | 18 | 2086 |
Fed 04-09 | 67 (44-23) 65.67% | 13.59% | 121 (91-30) 75.21% | 24.54% | 372 (351-21) 94.35% | 75.46% | 493 (442-51) 89.66% | 26 | 2017 |
Rafa 08-13 | 73 (47-26) 64.38% | 15.60% | 133 (93-40) 69.92% | 28.42% | 335 (313-22) 93.43% | 71.58% | 468 (406-62) 86.75% | 23 | 2045 |
Lendl 84-89 | 74 (52-22) 70.27% | 15.81% | 116 (83-33) 71.55% | 24.79% | 352 (333-19) 94.60% | 75.21% | 468 (416-52) 88.89% | 27 | 2014 |
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travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
I am neither a fan of Fed nor Djok.
But as an unbiased objective observer, I think these stats tell a misleading story, because Djok’s stats in the second half of his career were fattened up on a diet of weak competition,
gamelovergold
Semi-Pro
if you are unbaised can you tell 14 RG titles are weak competion
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
I am just a simple unbiased observer.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
You are literally spamming this board.
tennis_error
Professional
It's better to spam forum with facts instead of spam with subjective bs, lol.
KingCarlitos
Hall of Fame
1 or 2 points shouldn’t decide goat debate but yeah Fedal resistance to Novak’s GOAThood would be massive If Fed converted those points.
objection_
Rookie
Nah, not the one 40-15, it only means 1 more slam and Djoko has 3 more, level wise it could be argued that Fed's peak is clearly higher but stats wise he's still behind.
Had he converted both his 40-15's and his 15-40, then Fed leads the h2h and slam h2h against the Djoker, has a decisive lead in USO and is probably the best HC player ever, has 21/22 slams (give nadal 2010 USO), that really puts him right back into contention...
Then we just add up all the near misses....
2002 AO vs Haas, tight 5 setter going to 8-6, probably could have made a deep run, maybe into the semis against Safin, who himself played a tough 5 setter against Haas
2002 Wim vs Ancic, Feddy was a mental mug back then but still had no business losing in the 1R of the soon to be petslam, especially when it was sandwiched between the run beating Sampras and his first win
2002 WTF vs Hewitt, losing a nailbiter 3 setter in the SF's, maybe he could have won the F here??
2003 Rome... Mantilla... really?? after beating Ferrero in the semis as well
2004 Olympics - winnable draw, blows it to baby berdych, although I guess olympics wasn't viewed in tennis as a big title the way it is today
2005 AO SF - nuff said
2005 Monte Carlo - Gasquet decides to peak against a peaking fed
2005 WTF - Probably should have been down due to the injury, did well to claw back and led 6-5, 30-0 on serve in the 5th before losing
2006 Dubai
2006 Rome
2007 Madrid, after shellacking Nalby 6-1 in the first
2008 AO, up 5-3 in the 1st against Djoko and had multiple Sp's in the 3rd
2008 Clay masters, blowing massive leads in MC and Hamburg, has a great chance at Rome with nadal out then loses to stepanek...
2008 Wimbledon, although this one was really a coinflip, 1/13 on BP's is a great reminder
2009 AO - up a break in the 1st, billions of Bp's in the 3rd blown
2009 Canada - up 5-1 against Tsonga in the decider iirc and loses -_-
2009 USO - I rewatched the condensed match and this one was a freakin nightmare, 5-4 30-0 up in the 2nd and gets broken, couple bp's in the 4th not taken, 2 points away from the win....
2009 WTF - 2 points away from the win against davy in the SF
2010 USO - 15-40 on Djoko's serve, although i think he would have lost to nadal in the F anyways
2010 Paris - 5 MP's on freakin Monfils and loses
2011 AO - First set against Djoko was a nailbiter and he was up 5-2 in the 2nd set... don't think he would have won but def could have gone 4-5 against Peakovic as he did other matches that year
2011 RG - The dropshot miss in that 1st set...
2011 Wim - Up 2 sets to love, the last match he lost up 2 sets to love was the aforementioned WTF, before Tsonga starts being incredibly clutch on his own serve, gets through Fed in a couple of one break sets with Fed helpless on return.
2011 USO - The shot™
2012 AO - On a great winstreak, takes the 1st set against nadal and is up a break in the 2nd before unravelling, plays a tight third and fed misses an i/o fh winner by a inch that would have given a break in the 4th, then nadal gets super lucky with a lob to save bp
2012 RG - Squanders billions of breaks against Djoko
2012 USO - Flat against berdych, leading up to the tourney he had slaughtered djoko on the way to cincy
2012 WTF - Nailbiter 1st set that could have gone either way and led 40-15 on serve in the 2nd with set points iirc
2014 IW - Tight final against Djoko only to put up a TB stinker
2014 MC - Missed chance to win the elusive title against a beatable wawa
2014 RG - Gulbis choke
2014 Wim - Still favour Djoko's overall level but dumped a makeable OH into the net in the 5th that would have given him 15-30 or 15-40, cant remember
2014 USO - With Djoko out, decides to struggle against Monfils and get burned by Cilic
2015 AO - Probably wasn't gonna win but wtf was this seppi loss
2015 Madrid - Squandered MP's against King K
2015 USO - 4/23™
2016 Wim - Squandered BP's against Raonic
2017 Dubai - Donskoy GOAT
2017 US Open - If the 09 Final wasn't painful enough, this one seals the cake. Doesn't take a sitter BHV on set point, decides to let it bounce and then smacks it wide
2017 WTF - Losing to Goffin after smacking him in the first set and smacking him in Basel... Winnable tourney
2018 IW - another 40-15
2018 Wim - Kandy clutch, although I don't think Fed beats djoko or nadal here anyways
2018 USO - Dumped SP's against Milkman then fades in the humidity
2018 Paris - Nailbiter against Djoko
2019 AO - Probably could have made the SF/F here, loses to Nadal or Djoko, but 0/12 against baby tpas is unforgiveable. Also the forehand decided to disappear here and suddenly return in Dubai
2019 IW - Many chances against a peaking Thiem
2019 Madrid - MP's blown against Thiem
2019 Wim - No comment
2019 USO - Back gives out against Grigolo, good chance at making the F or even winning had the injury not come in
2019 Shanghai - Remarkable comeback against Z goes south after he starts getting pissy at the umpire
2019 WTF - 1/12 against Tpas again -_-
2020 AO SF - 9.5/10 level for the first 30 minutes before going to injurederer, should have taken the 1st set, although I won't hold it against him as he should have lost the previous round.
Those are all the big ones off the top of my head, feel free to add anymore... damn this gives me ptsd
Had he converted both his 40-15's and his 15-40, then Fed leads the h2h and slam h2h against the Djoker, has a decisive lead in USO and is probably the best HC player ever, has 21/22 slams (give nadal 2010 USO), that really puts him right back into contention...
Then we just add up all the near misses....
2002 AO vs Haas, tight 5 setter going to 8-6, probably could have made a deep run, maybe into the semis against Safin, who himself played a tough 5 setter against Haas
2002 Wim vs Ancic, Feddy was a mental mug back then but still had no business losing in the 1R of the soon to be petslam, especially when it was sandwiched between the run beating Sampras and his first win
2002 WTF vs Hewitt, losing a nailbiter 3 setter in the SF's, maybe he could have won the F here??
2003 Rome... Mantilla... really?? after beating Ferrero in the semis as well
2004 Olympics - winnable draw, blows it to baby berdych, although I guess olympics wasn't viewed in tennis as a big title the way it is today
2005 AO SF - nuff said
2005 Monte Carlo - Gasquet decides to peak against a peaking fed
2005 WTF - Probably should have been down due to the injury, did well to claw back and led 6-5, 30-0 on serve in the 5th before losing
2006 Dubai
2006 Rome
2007 Madrid, after shellacking Nalby 6-1 in the first
2008 AO, up 5-3 in the 1st against Djoko and had multiple Sp's in the 3rd
2008 Clay masters, blowing massive leads in MC and Hamburg, has a great chance at Rome with nadal out then loses to stepanek...
2008 Wimbledon, although this one was really a coinflip, 1/13 on BP's is a great reminder
2009 AO - up a break in the 1st, billions of Bp's in the 3rd blown
2009 Canada - up 5-1 against Tsonga in the decider iirc and loses -_-
2009 USO - I rewatched the condensed match and this one was a freakin nightmare, 5-4 30-0 up in the 2nd and gets broken, couple bp's in the 4th not taken, 2 points away from the win....
2009 WTF - 2 points away from the win against davy in the SF
2010 USO - 15-40 on Djoko's serve, although i think he would have lost to nadal in the F anyways
2010 Paris - 5 MP's on freakin Monfils and loses
2011 AO - First set against Djoko was a nailbiter and he was up 5-2 in the 2nd set... don't think he would have won but def could have gone 4-5 against Peakovic as he did other matches that year
2011 RG - The dropshot miss in that 1st set...
2011 Wim - Up 2 sets to love, the last match he lost up 2 sets to love was the aforementioned WTF, before Tsonga starts being incredibly clutch on his own serve, gets through Fed in a couple of one break sets with Fed helpless on return.
2011 USO - The shot™
2012 AO - On a great winstreak, takes the 1st set against nadal and is up a break in the 2nd before unravelling, plays a tight third and fed misses an i/o fh winner by a inch that would have given a break in the 4th, then nadal gets super lucky with a lob to save bp
2012 RG - Squanders billions of breaks against Djoko
2012 USO - Flat against berdych, leading up to the tourney he had slaughtered djoko on the way to cincy
2012 WTF - Nailbiter 1st set that could have gone either way and led 40-15 on serve in the 2nd with set points iirc
2014 IW - Tight final against Djoko only to put up a TB stinker
2014 MC - Missed chance to win the elusive title against a beatable wawa
2014 RG - Gulbis choke
2014 Wim - Still favour Djoko's overall level but dumped a makeable OH into the net in the 5th that would have given him 15-30 or 15-40, cant remember
2014 USO - With Djoko out, decides to struggle against Monfils and get burned by Cilic
2015 AO - Probably wasn't gonna win but wtf was this seppi loss
2015 Madrid - Squandered MP's against King K
2015 USO - 4/23™
2016 Wim - Squandered BP's against Raonic
2017 Dubai - Donskoy GOAT
2017 US Open - If the 09 Final wasn't painful enough, this one seals the cake. Doesn't take a sitter BHV on set point, decides to let it bounce and then smacks it wide
2017 WTF - Losing to Goffin after smacking him in the first set and smacking him in Basel... Winnable tourney
2018 IW - another 40-15
2018 Wim - Kandy clutch, although I don't think Fed beats djoko or nadal here anyways
2018 USO - Dumped SP's against Milkman then fades in the humidity
2018 Paris - Nailbiter against Djoko
2019 AO - Probably could have made the SF/F here, loses to Nadal or Djoko, but 0/12 against baby tpas is unforgiveable. Also the forehand decided to disappear here and suddenly return in Dubai
2019 IW - Many chances against a peaking Thiem
2019 Madrid - MP's blown against Thiem
2019 Wim - No comment
2019 USO - Back gives out against Grigolo, good chance at making the F or even winning had the injury not come in
2019 Shanghai - Remarkable comeback against Z goes south after he starts getting pissy at the umpire
2019 WTF - 1/12 against Tpas again -_-
2020 AO SF - 9.5/10 level for the first 30 minutes before going to injurederer, should have taken the 1st set, although I won't hold it against him as he should have lost the previous round.
Those are all the big ones off the top of my head, feel free to add anymore... damn this gives me ptsd
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Yikes
sportsfan1
Legend
Yeah not clinical at all. Too many blown leads, break point chances and a good few mps. I have always viewed it as if he could get to mps and/or leads against peak djoko even at the tail end of his career, he should have had a strategy in place. It was some missing mental and strategic piece and relying only on talent and instinct that prevented him from closing. But seemingly he's made his peace with it.
Lleytonstation
Talk Tennis Guru
Fed non choking Hypothetical is the best athlete of all time.
Poisoned Slice
Bionic Poster
Oh, absolutely.
AO13
Hall of Fame
Well, when you look at it, if Fed won those three points at 40:15 (x2) and 15:40 and won the finals, he could've had today 23 slams, Djokovic would be at 22, Nadal at 21. As Nadal retired, Djokovic entering his final year(s) with dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz, one could say Federer could've finished as the slam leader had he converted those match points and won the finals against Nadal in US10 and US11.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Federer would have been hit by a freight train in the 2010 USO Final. And 2011 would have been a good match.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
I wouldn't go so far as to say it decided it, but it would have been an enormous trump card in Federer's pocket had he converted. Which really just speaks to the absurdity of the situation, that a loss by one point is viewed in a completely binary sense, with Federer receiving zero credit for his play, and if anything being penalized for his 'choke.'
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
The juxtaposition is hilarious.
"1 or 2 points shouldn't decide GOAT"
"Btw 1 or 2 points decided GOAT"
Not targeted at you, @KingCarlitos. But this is genuinely how people approach the question lol
zagor
Bionic Poster
Yeah, not sure I'd pick any Fed ever over 2010 USO Nadal if I'm completely honest. To me 2010 USO is the most impressive non-FO slam Nadal played along with 2008 Wimbledon, in terms of peak level of play. Much more so than even 2009 AO or 2013 USO.
So yeah, 2010 would have been a definite loss for Fed. 2011 he would have put up a fight and would have had a shot (30-40% maybe) but personally I wouldn't bet on him recovering from the Novak match well enough to engage in a physical battle with Nadal in the final. Fed was almost 30 and was getting to be at a disadvantage over younger rivals who where still in their physical prime, beating two of them back-to-back in a BO5 tourney would have been a very tough task.
True, Fed should receive more credit for contending for the championship in the first place when he was 37-38 and had to beat his other main rival in the semis, which is draining physically and emotionally.
But in many sports the difference between the win and a loss, nirvana and tragedy is a matter of inches or seconds. Often in tennis even more so because of it's unique scoring system but that's one of the reasons I love the sport, I would never change it.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
While I agree about the beauty of the thin margins in sports, the Wimbledon 2019 scenario feels different because it was so impressive on paper that Federer found himself in that position to begin with. It's one thing to lose by a point at the peak of your powers, but did Federer really have any business coming that close to defeating Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back at Wimbledon at age 38? It speaks to his greatness. Yet he gets no credit for it and is even criticized for it. Cruel.
Tennfan123
Legend
No.
Djokovic would still have gotten the slam lead.
But the Goat title has been on Federers racket more than anyone else.
Frederick is the better player of the big 3.
Djokovic would still have gotten the slam lead.
But the Goat title has been on Federers racket more than anyone else.
Frederick is the better player of the big 3.
zagor
Bionic Poster
Sure I get what you mean, I agree with the sentiment.
It was the case of an aging great battling his younger rivals for one last time and faltering just before the finish line. Fed should get atleast some credit for it, not just backlash.
At the very least you can use the match as (yet another) proof that the big 3 are very, very close overall. Novak did separate himself and should get the credit for it as well, but they're always gonna be in the same tier of greats.
objection_
Rookie
I can do one with nadal if you'd like to share in the agony
Although I'm not that familiar so I'll probably miss a couple
Happy to torture some Djoker fans although I've got to admit your guy was usually clutch in big moments
Nappa
Professional
Good luck with that
Donkus_Reborn
Semi-Pro
which 40-15? There's like atleast three off the top of my head
I don't think any of the 40-15 matches was a chokejob really, Djokovic's best points ever played could have been 5 of these points (Fed dumped a forehand into net at Wimbledon), but the US Open points are by a distance - the best plays in saving match points, it's not like Feddie dumped those points off, Djokovic was going for broke like 03 Roddick on the Fh wing and like wawrinka on the BH.
The fact Federer got to match points at US Open 2011 is why for me he is a top 5 player ever (just behind Djokovic, Court, Sampras and Laver). I did have him outside the top 5, but Nadal was getting b!tchslapped by Djokovic in 2011, Federer atleast won a FO match and nearly made it a second.
I would be more interested to know what happened to Fed at Wimbledon 2011.
But even if Federer wins those three matches, he is still one slam behind Djokovic, without an Olympic gold in singles.
I don't think any of the 40-15 matches was a chokejob really, Djokovic's best points ever played could have been 5 of these points (Fed dumped a forehand into net at Wimbledon), but the US Open points are by a distance - the best plays in saving match points, it's not like Feddie dumped those points off, Djokovic was going for broke like 03 Roddick on the Fh wing and like wawrinka on the BH.
The fact Federer got to match points at US Open 2011 is why for me he is a top 5 player ever (just behind Djokovic, Court, Sampras and Laver). I did have him outside the top 5, but Nadal was getting b!tchslapped by Djokovic in 2011, Federer atleast won a FO match and nearly made it a second.
I would be more interested to know what happened to Fed at Wimbledon 2011.
But even if Federer wins those three matches, he is still one slam behind Djokovic, without an Olympic gold in singles.
KingCarlitos
Hall of Fame
What I’m saying Is that It shouldn’t make a big difference but the general consensus would shift massively if Fed converted those match points.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Agreed
Donkus_Reborn
Semi-Pro
Weakera's point is a very good one and it's why I have bumped Nadal out of the top 5 players ever and have slotted Federer in. Federer also gets credit for being quite possibly the only player in history to challenge Djokovic in 2011, I honestly can't think of another player who could consistently challenge Djokovic. Maybe some guys could do one tournament, but Federer was a threat all year round pretty much iirc. Nadal couldn't even beat Djokovic on clay in 2011. Also, it's not like those 40-15's were Federer dumping points away, Djokovic played some of his best ever points in those games.
I think the big thing which stops Federer from being anymore than a top 5 player and not the number 1 player is his record on clay and his record on clay against Nadal. I give him props for fighting, but damn he got destroyed by Nadal everywhere. I am surprised Federer won any more slams after 2011, he was getting banged by Nadal and done by Djokovic. I was convinced after 2010 he was done winning slams.
Racquet_smash
Professional
It didn't change anything because people who saw Federer as the better player didn't change their mind because of that match. Those who rated Djokovic as superior would have done the same even if he lost.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
damn I hope this post had some therapeutic value
FlyingSaucer
Semi-Pro
A fair few things change, but the main thing for 'GOAT' enthusiasts is Federer retires with 21 slams to Djo's 20 and Nadal's 22. I kept hearing for a good while that the fatal blow was Fed being surpassed in slams while active, so maybe folks can ponder if having that back-to-back win against both and later retiring one behind and one ahead would have made a difference.
messiahrobins
Legend
40-15 is now coming back to bite hard for those who made a big deal about it. And really hard.
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
WRONG
Pull up the 2011 to 16 stats.. second half bs nothing.
Djokovic won 40 big titles between 2011 to 16 mowing down fedal + Murray. That's where he got majority of his top 10 wins, big titles, everything.
Slams are not the only thing that matters. Peak play in peak competition.
Djokovic won 40, Fed 33, Nadal just 29.
messiahrobins
Legend
Djokovic is younger now than Federer was in 2019. The 5 year gloating about 40-15 is probably the single most dumbass thing i have ever seen as that was always going to come back one day and bite hard, and this year it has bit really hard.
2019 enhanced Federer's legacy big time, at worse it proved he is the greatest grass court player ever, he outplayed Nadal in the semis and 2 days later for most of the match outplayed Djokovic and in many ways exposed both Nadal and Djokovic's limitations on grass against a true grass court great who is natural on it. If you watch the matches back you will see what i mean.
messiahrobins
Legend
Tennis didnt start in 2011. Djokovic was 24 in 2011 lol. What was he doing the previous 4 years?
JoelSandwich
Hall of Fame
If anything it proved once again how overrated Djokovic is
nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
What a stupid comment
TTMR
Hall of Fame
Confusing question, as Fed would have lost to Nadal in both 2010 and 2011 had he converted against Djokovic. Fed was still playing with the mini racquet and Nadal's mental hold over him on all surfaces was at its summit at that time. 2017 was a long way away.
Fed winning Wimbledon 2019 would not have changed much. Only one slam.
Fed winning Wimbledon 2019 would not have changed much. Only one slam.
NeutralFan
G.O.A.T.
It decided Wimbledon 2019 that's it
Donkus_Reborn
Semi-Pro
is abmk a crackhead? he's blocked me already
messiahrobins
Legend
I think Sinner, and in particular Alcaraz have now blown the GOAT debate wide open again, Federer in particular now right back in it for the reason you point out, which is now becoming glaringly obvious. I dont think Sinner will ever be in the GOAT debate, he will be a tier below, Alcaraz though i am convinced will be in the debate, if not the actual GOAT. Easily the most complete 21 year old of all time and that points to longevity as well.
Nadal didn't win 8 RG titles in his 30s like he did in his 20s.
travlerajm
Talk Tennis Guru
Do the poll results suggest that the nextgen posters have arrived?
