Did AO organizers "fix" Nadal's questionable cakewalk draw?

Do you think the 2018 AO draw was "fixed" in Nadal's favor?


  • Total voters
    95
#1
Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.

PART 2 (Updated on 1/19/18):
Analysis of Draw with respect to Nadal's Losses at Hard Court Slams


Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

That’s 10 currently active players that Nadal has lost to in a hard court slam. Here are those players and their current seedings/rankings: Wawrinka (#9 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Verdasco (#40 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking). Now let’s look at which quarters of the draw these ten players landed in:

#1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
Youzhny (#90 ranking)

#3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking)

#4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

#2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
Del Potro (#12 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

The question is: is this a random draw that somehow ended up looking totally rigged? Or a rigged draw that can still come across as seemingly random? I obviously don't know whether or not this year's AO draw was rigged, but neither do you; not one of us saw the draw being made. The draw should be demonstrably random, with a live broadcast of some impartial celebrity pulling names out of a hat. I don't like the fact that the AO draw takes place behind closed doors using a computer program that can be designed to meet certain constraints while still seeming quasi-random.
 
Last edited:
#3
Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.
Why would they rig Nadal's draw? The player the organisers would most want in the final would be Federer, probably followed by Kyrgios.
 
#6
The draws are rigged big time . And what the heck is doing the draw behind closed doors ?

ATP and ITF are realizing lack of next gen and their alternative to keep public interest alive is to make the slam count the big thing and there is no better way to do that than by giving Rafa cushy draws

No friggin way one person can get so lucky
 
Last edited:
#15
The draw system is flawed. You know that when his second round opponent is tougher than his quarter finals. There is effing nobody in his side of the draw, not even a Fogninni, or a Goffin.

This luck again and again is unbelievable. This time around though, if he and Dimitrov both make it to SF again, Greg is going to take him out.
 
#16
He's the world number 1 - of course he's going to have the easiest draw. Plus to be honest there are no real tough draws for Fed, Rafa or Djoker at their best. Sure, some draws are tougher than others but not are really hard - these guys are too good.
 
#17
He's the world number 1 - of course he's going to have the easiest draw. Plus to be honest there are no real tough draws for Fed, Rafa or Djoker at their best. Sure, some draws are tougher than others but not are really hard - these guys are too good.

Why couldn’t he get a draw like this

- Dolgopolov
- Karlovic
- Khachanov
- Djokovic
- Kyrgios
- Dmitrov
 
#18
Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.
We've been talking about draw fixing for a long time. We all know it happens but don't know how to stop it :

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/fixed-draws-or-rigged-draws.462653/
 
#19
The draws are rigged big time . And what the heck is doing the draw behind closed doors ?

ATP and ITF are realizing lack of next gen and their alternative to keep public interest alive is to make the slam count the big thing and there is no better way to do that than by giving Rafa cushy draws

No friggin way one person can get so lucky
I take it they did the same thing for this AO ? They don't even have a charade going on anymore to make the draw process seem random.
 
#20
They fix it to get more people to watch.
They know Rafa and Grigor can play close matches, and many tv viewers in semi.
Since both delpo, waw and novak injury/very questionable form they think at least one of them will reach quarters and upwards so they put them Federer side.

They do it all to get tv viewers, tournament makes money that way.

Rafa also seems like the player that is most advertised for this tournament. His face everywhere. Even betting companies and AO commercials.
 
#22
i think it was rigged when they made him play Verdasco first up in 2016.
Maybe he got an "easy" way to the semis because of his announcement playing sleevless?:p
Im sure some more thousands gonna watch just because of that.

Hahahaha. Never know though. They need tv ratings.

The fixing in Wimbledon went really bad. Tv ratings very low. They prob hoped other players than cilic and Berdych would do well.
 
#27
If you end corrupt draws and easily abused TUE's, then Nadal becomes irrelevant overnight and the only story tennis has to sell evaporates.

Tennis needs, "The Chase." A trumped up rivalry is the only thing they know how to market, and with Fed having curb stomped Nadal every time for the last four years, it's pretty obvious which direction they have to stack the deck to get their desired result.
 

LETitBE

Hall of Fame
#30
They fix it to get more people to watch.
They know Rafa and Grigor can play close matches, and many tv viewers in semi.
Since both delpo, waw and novak injury/very questionable form they think at least one of them will reach quarters and upwards so they put them Federer side.

They do it all to get tv viewers, tournament makes money that way.

Rafa also seems like the player that is most advertised for this tournament. His face everywhere. Even betting companies and AO commercials.
KIA sponsor nadal and the Aus Open
 
#31
The draws are rigged big time . And what the heck is doing the draw behind closed doors ?

ATP and ITF are realizing lack of next gen and their alternative to keep public interest alive is to make the slam count the big thing and there is no better way to do that than by giving Rafa cushy draws

No friggin way one person can get so lucky
It's all because the organisers only think in terms of $$. And having Nadal in the tournament as long as they can is box office gold for them. Nadal brings in the crowd like no other player. Sad for other players.
 
#33
LOL even Nadal fans are intuiting that some doctoring has indeed occurred in a thread that makes him the crux of this particular hypothesis. Not a new thing either. Remember when Isner and Mahut got drawn in the first round of Wimbledon the year after they almost killed each other at the same tournament? How convenient... one of a billion examples.
 
#34
Well, I have to commend you OP for such effort at least.

But, no, there are no conspiracies. Sure, some things look suspicious, but if you change your theory, then even more things will look strange.

That's why conspiracy theories are almost always false.
Like the Moon Landing. Sure, you can find 10 things that are strange, but if you discard the Landing, then you are left with 1000 things looking strange.

So, in this case, sure it looks strange, but how about many other things that the draw looks in Fed's favour?

It evens out in the end.
 
#35
It's all because the organisers only think in terms of $$. And having Nadal in the tournament as long as they can is box office gold for them. Nadal brings in the crowd like no other player. Sad for other players.
True. It's high time organizers go beyond fixing of draws only and start fixing matches as well for Nadal.
 

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
#39
Wow. 11 posts in and it's time to ctrl-alt- delete your account OP.

In all seriousness, I will say that many draws have made me suspicious of shady dealings, but I don't like feeding conspiracy theories as a general rule.

Sorry to say I didn't read your labouring analysis either. ;)

Edit: You've been here 11 years?! What do you do? Post once a year. :eek: I feel bad for not reading your great masterpiece now.
 
Last edited:

zagor

Bionic Poster
#40
Wow. 11 posts in and it's time to ctrl-alt- delete your account OP.

In all seriousness, I will say that many draws have made me suspicious of shady dealings, but I don't like feeding conspiracy theories as a general rule.

Sorry to say I didn't read your labouring analysis either. ;)

Edit: You've been here 11 years?! What do you do? Post once a year. :eek: I feel bad for not reading your great masterpiece now.
It's about quality, not quantity.

This thread is a masterpiece.
 
#44
This is absurd.

Of cous Nadal had luck in the draw, but the theory that it was fixed? As stupid as flat earthers, moon landers, and 9/11ers.
 
#46
This is absurd.

Of cous Nadal had luck in the draw, but the theory that it was fixed? As stupid as flat earthers, moon landers, and 9/11ers.
So what you're telling us is that the Earth is flat, the Moon landing was hoaxed and that 9/11 was an inside jobarooni? Get ouuuuuuutta heeere.
 
#47
This is absurd.

Of cous Nadal had luck in the draw, but the theory that it was fixed? As stupid as flat earthers, moon landers, and 9/11ers.
Lol you can argue its true or false but to lump it with flat earthers is absurd

Businesses lie, cheat, exaggerate, withhold, steal and murder all the time. The computer youre reading this on or tbe clothes youre wearing are likely slave labour products. The metals in your computer likely involved extortion, violence and murder

A little draw rigging is nothing. Its not even results fixing or a huge economic decision like awarding tbe world cup to a country. And thats a good example FIFA and athletics corruption

Everyone wants to see fed v nadal
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#48
Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.
Now, this is interesting. I really hope no fixing is taking place, but you do start questioning things.
 
#50
The organisers even made Nadal's half play first, guaranteeing whoever makes the final from the top half, 2 days rest before the final. Then they made Nadal play a 37 year old, ranked 79 who, obviously, is in awe of Nadal, to play him in the first round.

The tables are turning; they are finally accepting that Nadal is the biggest box office star they have, probably why they are giving Fred all the help he can get with fake fans walking in on his on court interview. So it is in their interest to give Nadal a leg up in the draw.
 
Top