Did AO organizers "fix" Nadal's questionable cakewalk draw?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by ctrl-alt-del, Jan 15, 2018.

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Do you think the 2018 AO draw was "fixed" in Nadal's favor?

  1. YES (the draw was rigged)

    42.1%
  2. NO (the draw looks totally fine)

    40.0%
  3. Maybe (undecided and unconvinced)

    17.9%
  1. ctrl-alt-del

    ctrl-alt-del New User

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    Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

    Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

    Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
    2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
    2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
    2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
    2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
    2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
    2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
    2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
    2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
    2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
    2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
    2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
    2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
    2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
    2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
    2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
    2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
    2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

    Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

    I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

    Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
    2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
    2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
    2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
    2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
    2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
    2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

    Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.

    PART 2 (Updated on 1/19/18):
    Analysis of Draw with respect to Nadal's Losses at Hard Court Slams


    Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

    2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
    2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
    2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
    2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
    2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
    2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
    2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
    2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
    2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
    2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
    2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
    2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
    2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
    2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

    2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
    2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
    2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
    2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
    2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
    2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
    2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
    2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
    2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
    2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
    2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
    2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
    2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
    2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
    2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

    That’s 10 currently active players that Nadal has lost to in a hard court slam. Here are those players and their current seedings/rankings: Wawrinka (#9 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Verdasco (#40 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking). Now let’s look at which quarters of the draw these ten players landed in:

    #1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
    Youzhny (#90 ranking)

    #3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
    Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking)

    #4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
    Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

    #2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
    Del Potro (#12 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

    So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

    This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

    The question is: is this a random draw that somehow ended up looking totally rigged? Or a rigged draw that can still come across as seemingly random? I obviously don't know whether or not this year's AO draw was rigged, but neither do you; not one of us saw the draw being made. The draw should be demonstrably random, with a live broadcast of some impartial celebrity pulling names out of a hat. I don't like the fact that the AO draw takes place behind closed doors using a computer program that can be designed to meet certain constraints while still seeming quasi-random.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2018
    #1
  2. jaggy

    jaggy Talk Tennis Guru

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    Nothing surer.
     
    #2
  3. reaper

    reaper Legend

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    Why would they rig Nadal's draw? The player the organisers would most want in the final would be Federer, probably followed by Kyrgios.
     
    #3
  4. steve mcenroe

    steve mcenroe Rookie

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    Wouldn't be suprised , a lot of things TA does are dodgy .
     
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    #4
  5. Tennis_Hands

    Tennis_Hands G.O.A.T.

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    Look at it from the positive side: the list of players that need to be put on the other side of the draw could be longer for the next HC Major.

    :cool:
     
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    #5
  6. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict Bionic Poster

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    The draws are rigged big time . And what the heck is doing the draw behind closed doors ?

    ATP and ITF are realizing lack of next gen and their alternative to keep public interest alive is to make the slam count the big thing and there is no better way to do that than by giving Rafa cushy draws

    No friggin way one person can get so lucky
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2018
    #6
  7. Sudacafan

    Sudacafan Legend

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    Now I am really pissed. Why do I have to read this!
     
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    #7
  8. True Fanerer

    True Fanerer Legend

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    There's another factor that no one I think has mentioned in the last two slams. Murray has not competed in either slam. Taking out one big name like that makes a ton of difference as well.
     
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    #8
  9. Comb Over Champion

    Comb Over Champion Hall of Fame

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    Randomness is responsible for Nadal's draw. The fast Federer friendly surface is not random though.
     
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    #9
  10. BeatlesFan

    BeatlesFan G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal's not winning this one even with his cakewalk draw. Nick takes him out, if not some other Bozo before the semis. Ya heard it here first (or second, or third!)
     
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    #10
  11. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    Waiting for the backlash :)
    I remember how much we had to hear about Fedr's draw being rigged at the WO. And the court schedule, and the ...
     
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  12. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    You should read @sbengte s thread and poasts. Nadal has this wrapped up and will be the GOAT for being the first human in world history to win all four 2 times.


    Since Laver and Rosewall.
     
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    #12
  13. TahoeTennis

    TahoeTennis Hall of Fame

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    Tldr birthers truthers climate change deniers and nadal haters, please go away.
     
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    #13
  14. BeatlesFan

    BeatlesFan G.O.A.T.

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    Never heard of him/her. Must have them on ignore.
     
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  15. OddJack

    OddJack G.O.A.T.

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    The draw system is flawed. You know that when his second round opponent is tougher than his quarter finals. There is effing nobody in his side of the draw, not even a Fogninni, or a Goffin.

    This luck again and again is unbelievable. This time around though, if he and Dimitrov both make it to SF again, Greg is going to take him out.
     
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    #15
  16. titoelcolombiano

    titoelcolombiano Hall of Fame

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    He's the world number 1 - of course he's going to have the easiest draw. Plus to be honest there are no real tough draws for Fed, Rafa or Djoker at their best. Sure, some draws are tougher than others but not are really hard - these guys are too good.
     
    #16
  17. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict Bionic Poster

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    Why couldn’t he get a draw like this

    - Dolgopolov
    - Karlovic
    - Khachanov
    - Djokovic
    - Kyrgios
    - Dmitrov
     
    #17
  18. sbengte

    sbengte G.O.A.T.

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    We've been talking about draw fixing for a long time. We all know it happens but don't know how to stop it :

    https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/fixed-draws-or-rigged-draws.462653/
     
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    #18
  19. sbengte

    sbengte G.O.A.T.

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    I take it they did the same thing for this AO ? They don't even have a charade going on anymore to make the draw process seem random.
     
    #19
  20. TheGhostOfAgassi

    TheGhostOfAgassi G.O.A.T.

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    They fix it to get more people to watch.
    They know Rafa and Grigor can play close matches, and many tv viewers in semi.
    Since both delpo, waw and novak injury/very questionable form they think at least one of them will reach quarters and upwards so they put them Federer side.

    They do it all to get tv viewers, tournament makes money that way.

    Rafa also seems like the player that is most advertised for this tournament. His face everywhere. Even betting companies and AO commercials.
     
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    #20
  21. ForumMember

    ForumMember Hall of Fame

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    i think it was rigged when they made him play Verdasco first up in 2016.
     
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  22. TheGhostOfAgassi

    TheGhostOfAgassi G.O.A.T.

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    Maybe he got an "easy" way to the semis because of his announcement playing sleevless?:p
    Im sure some more thousands gonna watch just because of that.

    Hahahaha. Never know though. They need tv ratings.

    The fixing in Wimbledon went really bad. Tv ratings very low. They prob hoped other players than cilic and Berdych would do well.
     
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    #22
  23. EdSWright

    EdSWright Semi-Pro

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    Seriously, what's the point of early rounds? They waste everyone's time. Just start at the quarters.
     
    #23
  24. EdSWright

    EdSWright Semi-Pro

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    Again, the rigging is done in plain sight. It's the 32 seeded draw. It shoe horns the big names into the finals almost every time.
     
    #24
  25. reaper

    reaper Legend

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    It didn't work all that well in the early years. 32 seeds were introduced in 2001.
     
    #25
  26. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    She's a Nadal fan, senior member of the VB.
     
    #26
  27. SinjinCooper

    SinjinCooper Hall of Fame

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    If you end corrupt draws and easily abused TUE's, then Nadal becomes irrelevant overnight and the only story tennis has to sell evaporates.

    Tennis needs, "The Chase." A trumped up rivalry is the only thing they know how to market, and with Fed having curb stomped Nadal every time for the last four years, it's pretty obvious which direction they have to stack the deck to get their desired result.
     
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    #27
  28. Sambuccashake

    Sambuccashake Hall of Fame

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    I knew it was rigged the second I saw he was up against Estrella-Burgos in the first round.
     
    #28
  29. season25

    season25 Rookie

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    How did Delpo, Querrey and Djoko end up in the bottom half while they are seeded 12, 13 and 14? Can anyone please explain...
     
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    #29
  30. LETitBE

    LETitBE Hall of Fame

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    KIA sponsor nadal and the Aus Open
     
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  31. Backspin1183

    Backspin1183 G.O.A.T.

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    It's all because the organisers only think in terms of $$. And having Nadal in the tournament as long as they can is box office gold for them. Nadal brings in the crowd like no other player. Sad for other players.
     
    #31
  32. Backspin1183

    Backspin1183 G.O.A.T.

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    Because Nadal is the superstar of tennis.
     
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  33. -NN-

    -NN- Legend

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    LOL even Nadal fans are intuiting that some doctoring has indeed occurred in a thread that makes him the crux of this particular hypothesis. Not a new thing either. Remember when Isner and Mahut got drawn in the first round of Wimbledon the year after they almost killed each other at the same tournament? How convenient... one of a billion examples.
     
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    #33
  34. JackGates

    JackGates Hall of Fame

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    Well, I have to commend you OP for such effort at least.

    But, no, there are no conspiracies. Sure, some things look suspicious, but if you change your theory, then even more things will look strange.

    That's why conspiracy theories are almost always false.
    Like the Moon Landing. Sure, you can find 10 things that are strange, but if you discard the Landing, then you are left with 1000 things looking strange.

    So, in this case, sure it looks strange, but how about many other things that the draw looks in Fed's favour?

    It evens out in the end.
     
    #34
  35. ForumMember

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    True. It's high time organizers go beyond fixing of draws only and start fixing matches as well for Nadal.
     
    #35
  36. JackGates

    JackGates Hall of Fame

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    But, doesn't Fed bring even more crowds? So, if they want money, why wouldn't they rig it in Fed's favour?
     
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    #36
  37. junior74

    junior74 Legend

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    Estrella-Burgos was promised a hug at the net if he won no more than 5 games in total. Victor got happy as a little girl. I reddit.
     
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    #37
  38. ForumMember

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    Can't blame organizers. They have a tournament to run and Nadal brings what is needed to run a tournament.
     
    #38
  39. Steve0904

    Steve0904 Talk Tennis Guru

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    Wow. 11 posts in and it's time to ctrl-alt- delete your account OP.

    In all seriousness, I will say that many draws have made me suspicious of shady dealings, but I don't like feeding conspiracy theories as a general rule.

    Sorry to say I didn't read your labouring analysis either. ;)

    Edit: You've been here 11 years?! What do you do? Post once a year. :eek: I feel bad for not reading your great masterpiece now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2018
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    #39
  40. zagor

    zagor Bionic Poster

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    It's about quality, not quantity.

    This thread is a masterpiece.
     
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    #40
  41. season25

    season25 Rookie

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    Asking again...
     
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  42. ADuck

    ADuck Hall of Fame

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    Bush did 9/11
     
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  43. TheGhostOfAgassi

    TheGhostOfAgassi G.O.A.T.

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    The new video game too
     
    #43
  44. limmt

    limmt Rookie

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    This is absurd.

    Of cous Nadal had luck in the draw, but the theory that it was fixed? As stupid as flat earthers, moon landers, and 9/11ers.
     
    #44
  45. Tennease

    Tennease Hall of Fame

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    Of course. During the draw ceremony, the commentator mentioned that they use computer to do the draw.
     
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    #45
  46. -NN-

    -NN- Legend

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    So what you're telling us is that the Earth is flat, the Moon landing was hoaxed and that 9/11 was an inside jobarooni? Get ouuuuuuutta heeere.
     
    #46
  47. ingvar

    ingvar Rookie

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    Lol you can argue its true or false but to lump it with flat earthers is absurd

    Businesses lie, cheat, exaggerate, withhold, steal and murder all the time. The computer youre reading this on or tbe clothes youre wearing are likely slave labour products. The metals in your computer likely involved extortion, violence and murder

    A little draw rigging is nothing. Its not even results fixing or a huge economic decision like awarding tbe world cup to a country. And thats a good example FIFA and athletics corruption

    Everyone wants to see fed v nadal
     
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    #47
  48. Hitman

    Hitman Bionic Poster

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    Now, this is interesting. I really hope no fixing is taking place, but you do start questioning things.
     
    #48
  49. Gazelle

    Gazelle Legend

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    7,809
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    Zverev must first proof himself.
     
    StANDAA likes this.
    #49
  50. clayqueen

    clayqueen G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2010
    Messages:
    14,508
    The organisers even made Nadal's half play first, guaranteeing whoever makes the final from the top half, 2 days rest before the final. Then they made Nadal play a 37 year old, ranked 79 who, obviously, is in awe of Nadal, to play him in the first round.

    The tables are turning; they are finally accepting that Nadal is the biggest box office star they have, probably why they are giving Fred all the help he can get with fake fans walking in on his on court interview. So it is in their interest to give Nadal a leg up in the draw.
     
    #50

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