Did AO organizers "fix" Nadal's questionable cakewalk draw?

[Jmauer]

Tennis Australia has some kind of deals with Nadal Academy in Mallorca. KIA sponsors AO and Nadal and AO draw.

You forgot the video game lol

 

[Boaty McBoatface]

Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.

Well, that's it then folks, Mr '11 Posts' has spoken.

 

[ibbi]

We've got multiple threads dedicated to Nadal's draw, meanwhile Federer is looking at either Fucsovics or Kicker in the 4th round of a slam.

 

[Jmauer]

We've got multiple threads dedicated to Nadal's draw, meanwhile Federer is looking at either Fucsovics or Kicker in the 4th round of a slam.

Fed QF S F potential delpo-djoker-nadal

What about Rafa?

(not that it's his fault!!!)

 

[Comb Over Champion]

Fed's draw crumbling already, as expected.

 

[merlinpinpin]

Fed's draw crumbling already, as expected.

Never fear, he was never expected to face Wawrinka anyway. That's a bit like saying that Nadal's draw crumbled when Sock lost. Goffin could have taken Del Potro out, though, so his losing actually means that Fed's draw has just potentially become tougher.

Good try, though. B for effort.

 

[Comb Over Champion]

Never fear, he was never expected to face Wawrinka anyway. That's a bit like saying that Nadal's draw crumbled when Sock lost. Goffin could have taken Del Potro out, though, so his losing actually means that Fed's draw has just potentially become tougher.

Good try, though. B for effort.

Stay patient, you'll see.

 

[mike danny]

We've got multiple threads dedicated to Nadal's draw, meanwhile Federer is looking at either Fucsovics or Kicker in the 4th round of a slam.

Fed has a much tougher path once the QF kick in.

 

[Nishikorigoat]

That would be exciting too. But it would only confirm what has already been known: that Fed is ahead in the GOAT race. It wouldn't exactly be a compelling story, just a confirmation of the old one.

Only Federer fans think Federer is goat. Nishikori, Murray deplotro fans and most so called experts say Nadal although personally I think it’s between Nadal and Djokovic Andrea if Djokovic wins AO I’d be leaning to Djokovic.

Federer has not done enough in recent years compared to those two

 

[Ralph]

Only Federer fans think Federer is goat. Nishikori, Murray deplotro fans and most so called experts say Nadal although personally I think it’s between Nadal and Djokovic Andrea if Djokovic wins AO I’d be leaning to Djokovic.

Federer has not done enough in recent years compared to those two

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !

Nice one Centurion, like it!

 

[Kozzy]

The draw is rigged and the earth is totally flat.

 

[ingvar]

Federer has not done enough in recent years compared to those two

Why are you disrespecting Kevin Anderson? Its his livlihood stop disrespecting him like that. And OK so Nads has not beaten Fed in 4 years and lost to many mugs but when nads hotpants make him 10x more popular than fed is who is laughing then?? 2018 MARK MY WORDS NADS WILL WIN FAN FAV AWARD?

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Stay patient, you'll see.

He will see what?

Make some predictions with details, so that we can have a sensible conversation about your predictions when the draw materialises.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Only Federer fans think Federer is goat. Nishikori, Murray deplotro fans and most so called experts say Nadal although personally I think it’s between Nadal and Djokovic Andrea if Djokovic wins AO I’d be leaning to Djokovic.

Federer has not done enough in recent years compared to those two

That was quick.

Time for a new account maybe?

 

[ingvar]

Only Federer fans think Federer is goat. Nishikori, Murray deplotro fans and most so called experts say Nadal although personally I think it’s between Nadal and Djokovic Andrea if Djokovic wins AO I’d be leaning to Djokovic.

Federer has not done enough in recent years compared to those two

Basically no one thinks nads is GOAT bar a FEW nads bubble fans and his teenage girl fan club. As for Nishi yes I agree with you hes better than nadal if it wasnt for his injuries but I also think youre being disrespectful to kevin anderson

 

[Sysyphus]

However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it.

An astounding five my bad, four(!!) players from an arbitrarily cherry-picked sample ended up on the opposite side of the draw!?

'Truly spectacular' it is not.

 

[Sysyphus]

But yes, we all know that if you wanna ensure a Fedal final, the first commandment is by whatever means necessary keep Berdych out of Nadal's half.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

An astounding five players from an arbitrarily cherry-picked sample ended up on the opposite side of the draw!?

'Truly spectacular' it is not.

They are the last 4 players to beat him at AO who could've landed in his draw. Not really arbitrary.

 

[Sysyphus]

They are the last 4 players to beat him at AO who could've landed in his draw. Not really arbitrary.

Of course it's an arbitrary criteria.

Firstly, why stop exactly there? Why not go further back, include Ferrer and Tsonga, both of whom ended up in Nadal's half. Answer: because this exact cutoff fits best with OP's conspiracy.

More pertinently, why should we think that this is the criteria potential draw riggers would be operating with. Does the fact that Berdych beat Nadal at the AO one year when the latter absolutely sucked mean that it's of particular importance to keep him out of Nadal's draw rather than a host of other players? Obviously not.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Of course it's an arbitrary criteria.

Firstly, why stop exactly there? Why not go further back, include Ferrer and Tsonga, both of which ended up in Nadal's half. Answer: because this exact cutoff fits best with OP's agenda.

More pertinently, why should we think that this is the criteria potential draw riggers would be operating with. Does the fact that Berdych beat Nadal at the AO one year when the latter absolutely sucked mean that it's of particular importance to keep him out of Nadal's draw rather than a host of other players? Obviously not.

The more recently they beat Nadal, the more significant they are as part of the sample. The relevance of the loss diminishes in importance as you go back further in time.

So the cut off for the sample is convenient, but not really arbitrary. You couldn't really go back further than the Ferrer loss. And Ferrer is just irrelevant at this point.

I do not think the tournament rigged the draw to help Nadal avoid those players in particular; I was just arguing against your statement that it was an arbitrary list of players.

 

[MLRoy]

You've seen federer's?! He and Joker are the only 2 who get better draws. Federer should buy Jarko Neimenin a car for all of those charmed 1st rounds.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Nadal’s path will wind up as:

Dzhumur/Schwartzman/Carreno-Busta and then one of Edmund/Seppi/Tsonga.

It will make the USO run to the title look harrowingly daunting in comparison.

 

[kevaninho]

Why y'all worrying about a draw? Anyone can lose to someone weve never heard of before. Big deal.
Ive never known any place that whines about a draw like you lot on here.
Maybe I should stick to football forums where all fans accept their draws in tournaments, and don't cry that other teams have it easier.
Yous need a life .

 

[EdSWright]

Never fear, he was never expected to face Wawrinka anyway. That's a bit like saying that Nadal's draw crumbled when Sock lost. Goffin could have taken Del Potro out, though, so his losing actually means that Fed's draw has just potentially become tougher.

Good try, though. B for effort.

Wawrinka is unaware of the art of growing another knee.

 

[merlinpinpin]

Wawrinka is unaware of the art of growing another knee.

And well he should be. Kneewrinka doesn't sound as catchy as Knee-dal, for some reason (LOL, the version without an hyphen has been censured, too? Crazy stuff...)

I can totally see his level wavering in the next few months, though--because Waveringka totally works.

 

[EdSWright]

Nadal’s path will wind up as:

Dzhumur/Schwartzman/Carreno-Busta and then one of Edmund/Seppi/Tsonga.

It will make the USO run to the title look harrowingly daunting in comparison.

I wonder if his final opponent will climb the stands then write his autobiography about his path to semifinal glory, before bothering to show up for the final.

 

[ctrl-alt-del]

Of course it's an arbitrary criteria.

Firstly, why stop exactly there? Why not go further back, include Ferrer and Tsonga, both of whom ended up in Nadal's half. Answer: because this exact cutoff fits best with OP's conspiracy.

More pertinently, why should we think that this is the criteria potential draw riggers would be operating with. Does the fact that Berdych beat Nadal at the AO one year when the latter absolutely sucked mean that it's of particular importance to keep him out of Nadal's draw rather than a host of other players? Obviously not.

Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

That’s 10 currently active players that Nadal has lost to in a hard court slam. Here are those players and their current seedings/rankings: Wawrinka (#9 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Verdasco (#40 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking). Now let’s look at which quarters of the draw these ten players landed in:

#1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
Youzhny (#90 ranking)

#3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking)

#4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

#2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
Del Potro (#12 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

 

[Sysyphus]

So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

Your sample is 10 players. There are for quarters (duh, hehe). That's 2.5 players per quarter. Nadal ended up with one. That's hardly a statistically implausible outcome. Not even close.

This thread illustrates why people in general are terrible at recognizing random number sequences or coin flip sequences. They expect random outcomes to always line up very neatly – such as a very continuous change between heads and tails with very few streaks – but that's not how statistics works.

 

[ctrl-alt-del]

Your sample is 10 players. There are for quarters (duh, hehe). That's 2.5 players per quarter. Nadal ended up with one. That's hardly an statistically implausible outcome. Not even close.

This thread illustrates why people in general are terrible at recognizing random number sequences or coin flip sequences. They expect random outcomes to always line up very neatly – such as a very continuous change between heads and tails with very few streaks – but that's not how statistics works.

It could indeed just be "luck of the draw" and I think there was a 5% chance that none of those 10 players would land in Nadal's quarter of the draw. The question is: is this a random draw that somehow ended up looking totally rigged? Or a rigged draw that can still come across as seemingly random?

We can both maintain our respective forms of skepticism. I obviously don't know whether or not this year's AO draw was rigged, but neither do you; not one of us saw the draw being made. The draw should be demonstrably random, with a live broadcast of some impartial celebrity pulling names out of a hat. I don't like the fact that the draw takes place behind closed doors using a computer program that can be designed to meet certain constraints while still seeming quasi-random.

 

[ChaelAZ]

They fixed it, by giving it to Fed apparently.

 

[Sysyphus]

It could indeed just be "luck of the draw" and I think there was a 5% chance that none of those 10 players would land in Nadal's quarter of the draw. The question is: is this a random draw that somehow ended up looking totally rigged? Or a rigged draw that can still come across as seemingly random?

We can both maintain our respective forms of skepticism. I obviously don't know whether or not this year's AO draw was rigged, but neither do you; not one of us saw the draw being made. The draw should be demonstrably random, with a live broadcast of some impartial celebrity pulling names out of a hat. I don't like the fact that the draw takes place behind closed doors using a computer program that can be designed to meet certain constraints while still seeming quasi-random.

I agree with the bolded. The draw should be live, certainly the seeds, the way it was until fairly recently AFAIK.

 

[Fabresque]

Well, that's it then folks, Mr '11 Posts' has spoken.

You have a hundred posts

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Don't worry guys, next year, when Federer will be 37, he will get a super easy draw consisting of returned to form Stan Wawrinka, returning to form Andy Murray,and a couple of by then pigeons in the players, Kyrgios, Zverev, Shapovalov and De Minaur.

Easy peasy.

By then the said draw will be a cakewalk according to several leading Nadaeologhosts.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

That’s 10 currently active players that Nadal has lost to in a hard court slam. Here are those players and their current seedings/rankings: Wawrinka (#9 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Verdasco (#40 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking). Now let’s look at which quarters of the draw these ten players landed in:

#1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
Youzhny (#90 ranking)

#3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking)

#4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

#2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
Del Potro (#12 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

Have to agree with the WWE story line thing...the term is called - Burying.

 

[kevaninho]

Don't worry guys, next year, when Federer will be 37, he will get a super easy draw consisting of returned to form Stan Wawrinka, returning to form Andy Murray,and a couple of by then pigeons in the players, Kyrgios, Zverev, Shapovalov and De Minaur.

Easy peasy.

By then the said draw will be a cakewalk according to several leading Nadaeologhosts.

The draw doesn't matter. As we have seen over the years ( I presume you watch tennis ) , the top seeds regularly lose to guys they should beat.

Stop worrying about a draw, its embarrassing.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Well, that's it then folks, Mr '11 Posts' has spoken.

I know the account only has 11 posts, but most likely the person who created that account has existed here previously in another guise.

We've got multiple threads dedicated to Nadal's draw, meanwhile Federer is looking at either Fucsovics or Kicker in the 4th round of a slam.

It's crazy, isn't it?

Why y'all worrying about a draw? Anyone can lose to someone weve never heard of before. Big deal.
Ive never known any place that whines about a draw like you lot on here.
Maybe I should stick to football forums where all fans accept their draws in tournaments, and don't cry that other teams have it easier.
Yous need a life .

A draw is important in my opinion, so I can see how people talk about how much it will affect their favourite player. But the instinct to instantly assume there is a conspiracy behind the draw with no proof is very strange and idiotic. The culture of blaming players and hassling them on social media or lessening their victories based on draws they had nothing to do with is an example of sports fans at their pettiest and most pathetic.

Your sample is 10 players. There are for quarters (duh, hehe). That's 2.5 players per quarter. Nadal ended up with one. That's hardly a statistically implausible outcome. Not even close.

This thread illustrates why people in general are terrible at recognizing random number sequences or coin flip sequences. They expect random outcomes to always line up very neatly – such as a very continuous change between heads and tails with very few streaks – but that's not how statistics works.

Exactly. Randomized systems by nature can produced sequences which look perverse in isolation.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

A draw is important in my opinion, so....

Exactly. Randomized systems by nature can produced sequences which look perverse in isolation.

 

[Tennisguy777]

The organisers even made Nadal's half play first, guaranteeing whoever makes the final from the top half, 2 days rest before the final. Then they made Nadal play a 37 year old, ranked 79 who, obviously, is in awe of Nadal, to play him in the first round.

The tables are turning; they are finally accepting that Nadal is the biggest box office star they have, probably why they are giving Fred all the help he can get with fake fans walking in on his on court interview. So it is in their interest to give Nadal a leg up in the draw.

This is their apology to Nadal for last year, having him play Federer with one day rest and blow a break in the 5th set. About time Nadal plays his first match on a Monday. Monday Nadal will win on Final Sunday! Also why is Federer mouthing off about the heat when he 'requested' to play in the shade? What a little itch!

 

[Omega_7000]

Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.

PART 2 (Updated on 1/19/18):
Analysis of Draw with respect to Nadal's Losses at Hard Court Slams

Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

That’s 10 currently active players that Nadal has lost to in a hard court slam. Here are those players and their current seedings/rankings: Wawrinka (#9 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Verdasco (#40 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking). Now let’s look at which quarters of the draw these ten players landed in:

#1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
Youzhny (#90 ranking)

#3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
Tsonga (#15 seed), Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking)

#4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

#2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
Del Potro (#12 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

So the result of the supposedly random draw, which was done on computer and took place behind closed doors, is that, out of 10 active players with rankings/seedings outside the top 4 and a win against Nadal in a hardcourt slam, only one landed in Nadal’s quarter of the draw: world #90 Mikhail Youzhny, who beat Nadal in the US Open 12 years ago, and whose last victory against Nadal came 10 years ago in 2008.

This is either spectacular “luck” for Nadal, or this year’s AO draw was fixed, on computer and behind closed doors, in Nadal’s favor. I should be forgiven for coming to the logical conclusion that this year's Men's AO draw was blatantly rigged so that a superstar of the sport can make it to the second week of the tournament. I don't want to see tennis go the way of WWE wrestling, where the emphasis on superstars and storylines takes precedence over the purity of the sport.

The question is: is this a random draw that somehow ended up looking totally rigged? Or a rigged draw that can still come across as seemingly random? I obviously don't know whether or not this year's AO draw was rigged, but neither do you; not one of us saw the draw being made. The draw should be demonstrably random, with a live broadcast of some impartial celebrity pulling names out of a hat. I don't like the fact that the AO draw takes place behind closed doors using a computer program that can be designed to meet certain constraints while still seeming quasi-random.

Is the sky blue?

Good analysis though......Ridiculous how one sided the draw is for Nadal!

 

[Slightly D1]

Don't worry guys, next year, when Federer will be 37, he will get a super easy draw consisting of returned to form Stan Wawrinka, returning to form Andy Murray,and a couple of by then pigeons in the players, Kyrgios, Zverev, Shapovalov and De Minaur.

Easy peasy.

By then the said draw will be a cakewalk according to several leading Nadaeologhosts.

Ah yes, because Federer’s matches vs Bedene, Struff, Gasquet and Fucsovics just to get the the quarter finals has been SO difficult. Totally rigged against him.

 

[ctrl-alt-del]

Your sample is 10 players. There are for quarters (duh, hehe). That's 2.5 players per quarter. Nadal ended up with one. That's hardly a statistically implausible outcome. Not even close.

I've expanded the sample size from 10 to 16 so as to include, not just the players Nadal has lost to in hard court slams, but also Nadal's recent (2016 and 2017 seasons) hard court losses to Goffin, Kyrgios, Querrey, Raonic, and Coric; I'm also taking the liberty of including Dominic Thiem, who has a recent (Rome 2017) straight sets win against Nadal on clay and could conceivably be a threat to Nadal on hard court.

This is how the 16 players Nadal is most vulnerable to on hard court, as determined above, were distributed amongst the four quarters of the draw:

#1 seed (Nadal) quarter of the draw:
Coric (#47 ranking), Youzhny (#90 ranking)

#3 seed (Dimitrov) quarter of the draw:
Tsonga (#15 seed), Kyrgios (#17 seed) Pouille (#18 seed), Ferrer (#33 ranking), Shapovalov (#50 ranking)

#4 seed (Zverev) quarter of the draw:
Thiem (#5 seed), Wawrinka (#9 seed), Djokovic (#14 seed), Verdasco (#40 ranking)

#2 seed (Federer) quarter of the draw:
Goffin (#7 seed), Del Potro (#12 seed), Querrey (#13 seed), Berdych (#19 seed), Raonic (#22 seed), Fognini (#25 seed)

It is difficult to convince one's self that there isn't a determined, rather than probabilistic, pattern here. It sure looks like a very deliberate and informed draw, designed to maximize the possibility of Nadal reaching the second week.

 

[insideguy]

In the atp now a days there are no hard draws for the top guys. The others just wilt.

 

[Comb Over Champion]

Federer's draw has become pure comedy now. The two guys who stood a chance to beat him out. Fucsovics might be his toughest test before the Final.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Nadal’s path will wind up as:

Dzhumur/Schwartzman/Carreno-Busta and then one of Edmund/Seppi/Tsonga.

It will make the USO run to the title look harrowingly daunting in comparison.

Very well could have been. Surprised Cilic didn’t choke,

 

[abmk]

Federer's draw has become pure comedy now. The two guys who stood a chance to beat him out. Fucsovics might be his toughest test before the Final.

the bold part is beyond stupid.

 

[jussumman]

They already have his name engraved in the Trophy.

 

[Defcon]

Rafa has always had cakewalk draws, its been proven many times by people who've analyzed the draws. There have been multiple slams he hardly faces anyone all the way till the final. And he still whines and complains the most of any player I've seen at every little thing - umpires, rules, scheduling, real or imagined injuries etc etc.

 

[Comb Over Champion]

the bold part is beyond stupid.

It might. It certainly has been his biggest test so far.

 

[Deleted member 512391]

LOL even Nadal fans are intuiting that some doctoring has indeed occurred in a thread that makes him the crux of this particular hypothesis. Not a new thing either. Remember when Isner and Mahut got drawn in the first round of Wimbledon the year after they almost killed each other at the same tournament? How convenient... one of a billion examples.

That's interesting and what is even more suspicious is that they were projected to meet in the second round of 2012 Wimbledon (two years after the legendary 2010 match), but good man Falla sent both of them home.

 

[MS_07]

Below is my analysis of Nadal’s questionable draw. My hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers of the Australian Open to increase the chance of Nadal facing #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinals, then Federer in the final.

Federer, Del Potro, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all on the other side of the draw. All the currently active players who have won a grand slam are on Federer’s side of the draw, with the exception of Nadal and Cilic, who should meet in the Quarterfinals. However, Nadal is 5-1 against Cilic and that one loss came 9 years ago in 2009. Berdych, Fognini, Goffin, Querrey, Raonic, Thiem, Verdasco and Zverev are also on the opposite side of the draw from Nadal; this is notable because all of those players, with the exception of Zverev, have recent wins over Nadal. My point is that the draw is heavily in Nadal’s favor, to the point that one really has to wonder whether this is a rigged draw. Nadal has a clear path to the semifinals, where he will play Dimitrov/Rublev/Kyrgios/Shapovalov/Tsonga/Pouille/Sock. There doesn’t seem to be much of a possibility of him losing before the semis.

Here are the scores from some of Nadal’s recent defeats on hardcourt, to players not named Roger Federer:
2017 ATP World Tour Finals: Goffin d. Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
2017 Canadian Open: Shapovalov d. Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
2017 Cincinnati Masters: Kyrgios d. Nadal 6-2, 7-5
2017 Acapulco Open: Querrey d. Nadal 6-3, 7-6
2017 Brisbane: Raonic d. Nadal 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
2016 Cincinnati: Coric d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2016 Rio Olympics: Del Potro d. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 7-6
2016 Indian Wells: Djokovic d. Nadal 7-6, 6-2
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2016 Doha: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-1, 6-2
2015 Paris Masters: Wawrinka d. Nadal 7-6, 7-6
2015 Shanghai: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-4, 0-6, 7-5
2015 Beijing: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2015 Miami Masters: Verdasco d. Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6

Nadal lost to Federer in all three of their hard court meetings in 2017. However, in the past two years (2016 and 2017 seasons) Nadal has also lost to current world #7 Goffin, #12 Del Potro, #13 Querrey, #14 Djokovic, #17 Kyrgios, #18 Pouille, #23 Raonic, #40 Verdasco, #47 Coric and #50 Shapovalov. Nadal also lost to current world #9 Wawrinka in the 2015 Paris Masters, #27 Fognini in the 3rd round of the 2015 US Open and #20 Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open. Out of those thirteen players with recent hard court wins against Nadal, and all with current rankings well outside the top 4, only world #47 Coric is in Nadal's quarter of the draw. Nadal beat Coric by the score of 6-1, 6-2 when they met most recently just five months ago in Cincinnati in 2017. Nadal is very vulnerable on hard court and there are players throughout the top 50 that could take him out in the first week, if only they were seeded as potential opponents in his quarter of the draw!

I really think the draw was intentionally rigged so that Nadal can face #17 Kyrgios (an Australian) in the semifinal, then Federer in the final. Those are the two blockbuster matches that the Australian Open organizers want to happen. How can it be coincidence that all the players, currently ranked outside the top 5, that pose a serious threat to Nadal on hard court, players like Del Potro, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin, Querrey, Fognini, Raonic, Verdasco and Berdych, are all at a safe distance on the opposite side of the draw?

Here are Nadal’s results at the Australian Open from the past six years:
2017 Australian Open Final: Federer d. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2016 Australian Open 1st Round: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: Nadal did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5

Note that every single one of his former conquerors (Berdych, Djokovic, Federer, Verdasco, Wawrinka) at the Australian Open the past six years is on the other side of the draw. For Federer, this makes perfect sense; as the #2 seed, he’s supposed to be on the opposite side of the draw, as the #1 (Nadal) and #2 (Federer) seeds can’t meet until the final. However, Wawrinka (#9) Djokovic (#14), Berdych (#20) and Verdasco(#40) all have rankings outside the top 4, which means that any one of them (or two, or three) could have showed up in Nadal’s quarter. Perhaps it is just luck of the draw, but if so, that is some truly spectacular luck. I’m not buying it. I read in a separate thread that the draw was done by computer this year; it would have been very easy to "fix" the draw, so as to meet certain desired constraints, via computer. I think the organizers were dismayed by Nadal’s 1st round defeat to Verdasco in 2016 and decided to fix the draw so that they could have their big superstar of the game make it to the second week. In conclusion, my hypothesis is that the draw was rigged by the organizers.

PART 2 (Updated on 1/19/18):
Analysis of Draw with respect to Nadal's Losses at Hard Court Slams

Here are Nadal’s losses at hard court majors (AO and US Open) to active players currently ranked/seeded outside the top 4:

2017 Australian Open: loss to current world #2 Federer
2016 Australian Open: Verdasco d. Nadal. 7-6, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2
2015 Australian Open Quarterfinal: Berdych d. Nadal 6-2, 6-0, 7-6
2014 Australian Open Final: Wawrinka d. Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
2013 Australian Open: did not play in 2013 due to injury
2012 Australian Open Final: Djokovic d. Nadal. 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
2011 Australian Open Final: Ferrer d. Nadal. 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
2010 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2009 Australian Open: wins tournament (d. Federer)
2008 Australian Open Semi: Tsonga d. Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
2007 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Fernando Gonzalez
2006 Australian Open: did not play in 2006 due to injury
2005 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt
2004 Australian Open: loss to not currently active Lleyton Hewitt

2017 US Open: wins tournament (d. Anderson)
2016 US Open: Pouille d. Nadal 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6
2015 US Open: Fognini d. Nadal 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2014 US Open: did not play in 2014 due to injury
2013 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2012 US Open: did not play in 2012 due to injury
2011 US Open: Djokovic d. Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1
2010 US Open: wins tournament (d. Djokovic)
2009 US Open semifinal: Del Potro d. Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
2008 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Murray
2007 US Open 4th round: Ferrer d. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-2
2006 US Open Quarterfinals: Youzhny d. Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-1
2005 US Open: loss to not currently active James Blake
2004 US Open: loss to not currently active Andy Roddick
2003 US Open: loss to not currently active Y El Aynaoui

Why do we even have to discuss this ?

it is known that AO (or any tournament) want to have maximum viewership and media coverage. And who can bring that ? 1) Grandpa Fed 2) Bafa
also, it is known that bafa can't make it to HC/GC final if he has fair draw ..
so they game him possibly the weakest draw. Simple.

This is no rocket science. Easy peasy to understand.