From 1984-1988, Pat Cash squared off with Ivan Lendl four times at Majors, with Cash winning three of them. Did Cash's play lead to Lendl losing all four Majors that he otherwise would have won?
So, what does everyone think? Does Lendl win all four of these Majors if not for Cash? Three? Two? One? None? And, of course, this is all in a vacuum b/c I imagine Lendl's career trajectory could look totally different if, for example, he comes into the 1984 U.S. Open final fresh and takes down the mighty McEnroe.
1987 Wimbledon Final: This one's the most straight forward. Cash straight setted Lendl in the 1987 Wimbledon final. Quite clearly, if Lendl reverses the result of that match, he wins Wimbledon and ends with a NCYGS. Alternatively, if we shift things and say that Connors beats Cash in the SF, I still probably tab Lendl to take the title. Yes, Connors was a tough matchup for Lendl on grass, famously beating him in a four setter in the 1984 Wimbledon SF. But that was Connors's last win over Lendl before Ivan flipped the script, and Connors was not in great form at the All England Club that year, nearly getting straight setted by Pernfors and being obliterated by Cash in the SF.
1988 Australian Open SF: In the first year of the Australian Open on Rebound Ace, Cash squeezed past Lendl in a five set SF before losing an even tighter final against Wilander, going down 8-6 in the fifth set, So, if Lendl had gotten past Cash in the SF, could he have taken down Wilander in the final? This hard court Major was situated between the 1987 U.S. Open, where Lendl beat Wilander in a four set final, and the 1988 U.S. Open, where Mats won the final in five set over Ivan. Famously, after being beaten from the baseline in the 1987 final at Flushing Meadows, Mats adopted a net rushing strategy against Ivan in the 1988 final, allowing him to squeak out a win. While this strategy worked well on the faster DeceTurf surface in New York, I don't see it succeeding as well on the slower surface of Rebound Ace. So, could Mats have beaten Ivan from the baseline in a hypothetical AO final on Rebound Ace in 1988? Would the net rushing strategy he adopted in New York have worked well enough down under? Or does Lendl add another Australian title if he gets past Cash?
1987 Australian Open SF: Speaking of adding an Australian title, we have the 1987 AO in its final year on the Kooyong grass. Cash beat Lendl in a four set SF before falling to Edberg in a five set final. So, who wins a hypothetical Lendl/Edberg final if Ivan slips past Pat in the SF? In 1987, the Australian Open moved to January, meaning its prior edition was in November/December 1985. In the SF of that event, Edberg eked past Lendl, 9-7 in the fifth set, before beating Wilander in the final. Six months after the 1987 Australian Open, Edberg and Lendl would square off in the Wimbledon SF, with Lendl winning in four sets before falling in the final to Cash (as noted above). So, a hypothetical Lendl/Edberg final at the 1987 AO would have been sandwiched between Edberg barely beating Lendl in the prior AO and Lendl winning a touch more comfortably at Wimbledon later in that year. Does Lendl take the title if he slips past Cash? Or does Edberg still win this grass court showdown?
1984 U.S. Open SF: In what would subsequently be known as "Super Saturday," Lendl came close to beating 19 year-old Cash in four sets before Cash took the fourth set in a tiebreaker and extended Lendl to a fifth set tiebreaker, with Ivan needing to save a match point before notching the win. In the nightcap, McEnroe then won an epic five setter against Connors. Somewhat famously, McEnroe wondered whether he had enough gas in the tank to take the title before seeing Lendl in the locker room, looking worse for wear after his war with Cash. McEnroe then realized that he was actually the fresher of the two and rolled through Lendl to take the title. If Lendl is able to take down Cash in four sets and save some energy, is the dynamic in the final totally different? Or is Super Mac still too good to break through?
So, what does everyone think? Does Lendl win all four of these Majors if not for Cash? Three? Two? One? None? And, of course, this is all in a vacuum b/c I imagine Lendl's career trajectory could look totally different if, for example, he comes into the 1984 U.S. Open final fresh and takes down the mighty McEnroe.