Did Madison Keys just win the “closest” slam?

[ghostofMecir]

Madison Keys just won the 2025 women’s AO the dominance ratio of just 1.09. Furthermore, none of her victories reached a dominance ratio of 1.2.

I took a look at every women’s slam champion since 2003 when tennis abstract has points ratio numbers, and looked at every men‘s slam champion since 1991 and every single slam champion, every single one, had at least one match where they had a points dominance of one 1.2 or over and most slam champions had multiple matches over 1.3. There is not a single slam champion that I found and there might be some before 2003 on the women’s side which I haven’t calculated that had every single match be as close as what Madison‘s matches were.

Im starting a list here (not definitive):

Lowest Slam-Winning Dominance Ratios

Madison Keys, 2025 Australian Open, 1.09
Jelena Ostapenko, 2017 Roland Garros, 1.15
Gaston Gaudio, 2004 Roland Garros, 1.18
Goran Ivanisevic, 2001 Wimbledo, 1.20
Carlitos Alcaraz, 2022 US Open, 1.20
Elena Rybkina, 2022 Wimbledon, 1.22
Andre Agassi, 1992 Wimbledon, 1.22
Guga Kuerten, 2000 Roland Garros, 1.22
Guga Kuerten, 2001 Roland Garros, 1.24
Marketa Vondrousova, 2023 Wimbledon, 1.27
Thomas Johannson, 2002 Australian Open, 1.27
Caroline Wozniacki, 2018 Australian Open, 1.29

Here are some that come close but not really. It’s just really wild how she won this way which is basically impossible.

It is difficult to compare men’s and women since men’s best of five and the dominance ratios are a little bit different dynamic, but here are some that are close

@Moose Malloy
@Rovesciarete

 

[Moose Malloy]

what was Rybakina's DR at '22 W? From a thread back then:

Anytime you win a match without winning more return points than your opponent, it means you had a little bit of help from luck. I call these “luck wins.” Rybakina recorded 3 luck wins out of her 7 victories during the tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the first time in history that a slam was won with 3 luck wins.

The vast majority of slams are won with zero luck wins. And winning a slam with a luck win is rare. But 3?

It’s also possible that her return point dominance ratio was the lowest for any slam champ in tennis history.

Will Rybakina win another slam title?

Personally, I believe she has very little to no chance. Yet another one-slam wonder. What works to her advantage: 1. A huge game. When she's on she can crush practically any opponent. 2. Her age. While 23 may not seem particularly young in WTA terms for a debut slam winner, consider the fact...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

 

[Bartelby]

Keys made Sabalenka's groundstrokes look ordinary.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

what was Rybakina's DR at '22 W? From a thread back then:

Will Rybakina win another slam title?

Personally, I believe she has very little to no chance. Yet another one-slam wonder. What works to her advantage: 1. A huge game. When she's on she can crush practically any opponent. 2. Her age. While 23 may not seem particularly young in WTA terms for a debut slam winner, consider the fact...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

1.22 overall, maxing out at 1.44 against Martic in R16

Tennis Abstract: Elena Rybakina WTA Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

 

[metsman]

Keys made Sabalenka's groundstrokes look ordinary.

that's because they are. She's a homeless woman's Sharapova (pre shoulder injury, but off the ground, post injury too). People forget how well that generation struck the ball even a supposed grinder like Clijsters.

 

[ghostofMecir]

what was Rybakina's DR at '22 W? From a thread back then:

Will Rybakina win another slam title?

Personally, I believe she has very little to no chance. Yet another one-slam wonder. What works to her advantage: 1. A huge game. When she's on she can crush practically any opponent. 2. Her age. While 23 may not seem particularly young in WTA terms for a debut slam winner, consider the fact...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

Rybikina, Wimbledon 22, 1.22
Carlos, USO 22, 1.20

 

[jarko111]

It was a great match! I'm not even mad at Sabalenka like everyone else. Just shows how much she wanted. Shows how much she thought it was actually going to be her title.

 

[Jack the Hack]

Curious if any previous major winner ever had to beat four top 10 players in route to getting the title?

Seems unprecedented.

 

[Bride of Alcaraz]

Which is more impressive, winning a slam with lopsided scores or winning a slam over the most difficult draw we've ever seen!
Winning with lopsided scores is very common (and so are weak draws), so I don't find it as impressive as winning over the most difficult draw.
And clutchness is what separates good from great players, so that's another impressive thing about Keys

 

[Robert F]

Which is more impressive, winning a slam with lopsided scores or winning a slam over the most difficult draw we've ever seen!
Winning with lopsided scores is very common (and so are weak draws), so I don't find it as impressive as winning over the most difficult draw.
And clutchness is what separates good from great players, so that's another impressive thing about Keys

I guess winning a difficult draw with lopsided scores would be mmost impressive. Nadal probably has come close at RG several times.
Imagine if Keys won all her matches in 2 sets 6-3 being the worst won throughout the tournament--against #1 and 2 in the world. That would be impressive.

But answering your question--defintiely winning a slam over a difficulty draw has more creedence than lopsided wins in a weak or standard draw.
How many people complain that there Non-fav Big 3 player won so many easy slams because they face a cakewalk draw etc.

 

[Moose Malloy]

Curious if any previous major winner ever had to beat four top 10 players in route to getting the title?

Seems unprecedented.

Collins was ranked 11, but seeded 10 because Krejcikova withdrew.

not sure what all these opponents were ranked, but these major winners beat four top 10 seeds(and Wilander beat four top 5 seeds)
Goolagong 1980 W
Wilander 1982 RG
Federer 2017 AO

 

[Bride of Alcaraz]

And Nadal beat FOUR top 10 players at 2022 Roland Garros
R16: Auger-Aliassime 9
QF: Djokovic 1
SF: Zverev 3
F: Ruud 8
And Nadal missed 6 weeks with a broken rib and didn't win any clay events (Madrid QF, Rome R16) before RG!

 

[Moose Malloy]

Curious if any previous major winner ever had to beat four top 10 players in route to getting the title?

Seems unprecedented.

just saw on wikipedia that beating 4 top 10 seeds has happened 2 other times in women's tennis(besides Keys and Goolagong)

1995 AO Pierce beat 1, 2, 8, 10 seeds(without losing a set). #1 Graf wasn't entered.
2011 RG Li Na beat 4, 5, 7, 9 seeds