Did Murray Overachieve?

[TTMR]

Not in general, but relative to his competition. Think about it.

USO 2012. Berdych knocked out Federer. Berdman was playing the tennis of his life and was a player Murray historically struggled with up to that point. But from the SF on the wind was insane, to the point that had it kept up, Ferrer probably would have been the other finalist as he was clobbering Novak before the postponement. So Murray beats Berdych.

Final. The wind returns again! Murray jumps out to a huge lead. The wind dies down and Djokovic gets some new life, but it doesn't last. Murray plays it safe and hangs on just enough to secure victory.

Okay okay you'll say, maybe Murray got lucky with the wind that one time, but he won two other slams, didn't he? Well, think about this. Had Murray lost the USO Final, he would have gone 0-5 in his first five finals. Honestly, I'm not sure he's recovering from that. I'm not sure anyone's recovering from that. So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

 

[Purestriker]

Not in general, but relative to his competition. Think about it.

USO 2012. Berdych knocked out Federer. Berdman was playing the tennis of his life and was a player Murray historically struggled with up to that point. But from the SF on the wind was insane, to the point that had it kept up, Ferrer probably would have been the other finalist as he was clobbering Novak before the postponement. So Murray beats Berdych.

Final. The wind returns again! Murray jumps out to a huge lead. The wind dies down and Djokovic gets some new life, but it doesn't last. Murray plays it safe and hangs on just enough to secure victory.

Okay okay you'll say, maybe Murray got lucky with the wind that one time, but he won two other slams, didn't he? Well, think about this. Had Murray lost the USO Final, he would have gone 0-5 in his first five finals. Honestly, I'm not sure he's recovering from that. I'm not sure anyone's recovering from that. So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

Nah. He just wasn’t as good as the other 3.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Murray was quite consistent against lower Field but he was equally useless against Big 3s. Hence it explains his career. Got his arse handed by Big 3 in last stages of Slams very often no matter how well he played. Won selective few Slams he avoided Big 3 or found them on their worst days.

 

[Mustard]

Murray was quite consistent against lower Field but he was equally useless against Big 3s. Hence it explains his career. Got his arse handed by Big 3 in last stages of Slams very often no matter how well he played. Won selective few Slams he avoided Big 3 or found them on their worst days.

He beat Djokovic in a few big ones, even though he lost even more to him.

 

[D.Nalby12]

He beat Djokovic in a few big ones, even though he lost even more to him.

2012 USO / 2013 W is the worst I've seen Djokovic to play in slam finals. Hardly impressive win in my book.

 

[TTMR]

He beat Djokovic in a few big ones, even though he lost even more to him.

If he didn't beat Djokovic in '12 (bolstered by the wind), it's doubtful he'd have ever beaten him. 0-5 is too big of an albatross for all but the most resilient of players to overcome.

 

[Mustard]

If he didn't beat Djokovic in '12 (bolstered by the wind), it's doubtful he'd have ever beaten him. 0-5 is too big of an albatross for all but the most resilient of players to overcome.

LOL. That wind seems to be Djokovic's biggest nemesis

For Murray, it was the feather of doom during the 2013 Australian Open final.

 

[Sudacafan]

Murray was quite consistent against lower Field but he was equally useless against Big 3s. Hence it explains his career. Got his arse handed by Big 3 in last stages of Slams very often no matter how well he played. Won selective few Slams he avoided Big 3 or found them on their worst days.

I see. So Casper Ruud is the Andy Murray of our times?

 

[D.Nalby12]

I see. So Casper Ruud is the Andy Murray of our times?

Ruud is Murray of inflation era.

 

[MeatTornado]

Had Murray lost the USO Final, he would have gone 0-5 in his first five finals. Honestly, I'm not sure he's recovering from that. I'm not sure anyone's recovering from that. So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

He recovered from 0-4, but 0-5 would've been the deal breaker for sure. Sounds legit.

 

[Wurm]

So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

The wind's effect on that match is overblown.

Some GOAT if Novak can't cope with typical seaside town conditions.

 

[Sudacafan]

The wind's effect on that match is overblown.

How could we measure this?

 

[mtommer]

Did Murray overachieve? I don't believe so. Reasons? This thread would be deleted if we discuss...."possibilities"....as to why he didn't achieve more. I will say that he may represent the very stark reality in difference between those who do and those who don't.

 

[Tennfan123]

Yes, very much so. A very mentally weak player who benefitted when stuff got weak post 2013.

 

[Wurm]

Yes, very much so. A very mentally weak player who benefitted when stuff got weak post 2013.

Before assessing Murray's career it might be best to actually know something about it.

Try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray_career_statistics

 

[Bertie B]

Underachieved.

2012/2013/2014 was his window of opportunity and he barely won two slams.

2004/2006/2007 Federer
2008/2010/2013 Nadal
2011/2015/2016 Djokovic

 

[Biotic]

So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

All Novak had to do to get postponement is whine about the wind as much as 2012 RG Nadal whined about the rain. How hard can it be?

Oh well...

 

[jl809]

Not in general, but relative to his competition. Think about it.

USO 2012. Berdych knocked out Federer. Berdman was playing the tennis of his life and was a player Murray historically struggled with up to that point. But from the SF on the wind was insane, to the point that had it kept up, Ferrer probably would have been the other finalist as he was clobbering Novak before the postponement. So Murray beats Berdych.

Final. The wind returns again! Murray jumps out to a huge lead. The wind dies down and Djokovic gets some new life, but it doesn't last. Murray plays it safe and hangs on just enough to secure victory.

Okay okay you'll say, maybe Murray got lucky with the wind that one time, but he won two other slams, didn't he? Well, think about this. Had Murray lost the USO Final, he would have gone 0-5 in his first five finals. Honestly, I'm not sure he's recovering from that. I'm not sure anyone's recovering from that. So I think, without that wind, Murray becomes another Rios.

 

[jl809]

even though I know this is almost certainly a troll thread, either way I’m so mad that I can’t even begin to type reply to the bait anyway he has underachieved SO MUCH

 

[rUDin 21]

2012 USO / 2013 W is the worst I've seen Djokovic to play in slam finals. Hardly impressive win in my book.

Not entirely true.
2021 USO and 2020 RG are horrible also.

 

[NatF]

Achieved about right considering his capabilities. Very consistent but lacking the top gear in the biggest matches, won three slams and a bunch of other events with consistency and guile.

 

[duaneeo]

Murray would never beat Federer or Nadal in a slam final, and perhaps should've never beaten Djokovic in a slam final (let alone two). So in that regard, he's overachieved being a 3-time slam winner.

 

[President]

Achieved about right considering his capabilities. Very consistent but lacking the top gear in the biggest matches, won three slams and a bunch of other events with consistency and guile.

I think he should've won a couple more slams given his abilities, his problem was running into the Big 3 in slam SFs and finals too often. Agreed on his top gear though (at least relative to Big 3 and Wawrinka), but consistency is a talent as well. Is there any other player in the open era with a similar number of slams to him who has anywhere near the number of slam finals and Masters wins/finals that Murray has? I don't even like Andy's game, but I respect him.

 

[RS]

His consistency is maybe more the level of a 6 slammer which is considered a lock ATG but level closer to maybe IMO.

I am going to take a reach and say 4 slams would have been best suited.

 

[AO13]

I had a dream last night.

Sir Andrew Murray to play ATP Nitto Finals in 2023.

 

[abmk]

2012 USO / 2013 W is the worst I've seen Djokovic to play in slam finals. Hardly impressive win in my book.

don't think USO 12 final was that bad. Djokovic has played some worse slam finals (2021 USO, 2020 RG, 2016 USO, 2013 Wim at the very least)

 

[RS]

even though I know this is almost certainly a troll thread, either way I’m so mad that I can’t even begin to type reply to the bait anyway he has underachieved SO MUCH

When you say so much I assume that is at least by 2 slams?

 

[jl809]

1. For OP’s point, it’s not Murray’s fault Djokovic is totally ****ing **** in the wind lol
2. Totally underachieved with all the slam matches vs Djoker where they split the first 2 sets and then Murray decided to inexplicably dip out (AO 13, USO 14, AO 15, FO 16). Read Wasp’s match reports for more details
3. He is partly to blame for letting his H2H with Federer get worse in his own prime. I refuse to believe it is all because Fed just magically figured him out
4. Super inconsistent vs Nadal (randomly played amazingly in matches like USO 08, AO 10, Tokyo etc but never carried over the tactics)
5. Injury unluckiness in his 2012-2016 prime (2013, 2014 etc) then underachieved in first part of 2017
6. Stupidity of trying to play through injury at Wimbledon in 2017 means he screwed opportunity to take on inflation era from 2017-2022 - 0 inflation era slams is underachievement
7. Stupidity of not shortening points in the last few years + developing forehand despite still having a good ROS, backhand, lob etc

He should be on 5-6 slams for sure but he’s mismanaged his body and lost too many matches vs Djokovic and Federer in his prime for inexplicable reasons

 

[RS]

Fed and especially Djokovic needed Murray's Back surgery most to turn around or pull ahead of the H2H;s. This is a fact.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

He hardly got to win any mug level titles so no.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

5-6 slams for sure but he’s mismanaged his body and lost too many matches vs Djokovic and Federer in his prime for inexplicable reasons

Inexplicable? He wasn't as good, simple as that.

 

[jl809]

Inexplicable? He wasn't as good, simple as that.

Right so preprime Murray was better than prime / early postprime Fed, but old Fed was better than prime Murray? You have to admit the progression of the H2H is bizarre. I know preprime Murray got his wins outside of slams but still

 

[jl809]

Even now he is underachieving with such magic moments as losing to Isner at Wimbledon and targeting Berrettini’s forehand ( ) at the US Open

Hopefully after some more time with Ivan he will step up again

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Right so preprime Murray was better than prime / early postprime Fed, but old Fed was better than prime Murray? You have to admit the progression of the H2H is bizarre. I know preprime Murray got his wins outside of slams but still

Murray was totally prime in BO3 (off clay) right from the outset. You realise he held as many as four masters titles at one point in 2009? Surely that's prime Murray. He struggled with his slam peak but that's always been the case except in 2012-13. Federer, on the other hand, visibly targeted slams in 08-11 (later he'd go for both: in 2012, in his quest to return at #1, and post-2013, due to losing consistency hence needing the ranking points from good BO3 performances to stay afloat) so him losing a bunch of BO3 matches to in-form Murray wasn't that surprising. The only really surprising tidbit is the four losses within just a few months of 08-09 (Shanghai, YEC 08, Doha, IW 09), Murray going as high as 6-2 up in the total H2H. That was it as Federer began to steadily recover afterwards.

 

[Silverbullet96]

He just achieved.

 

[abhi_trip]

He has underachieved. He was extremely unlucky to have 2 injuries - back surgery in 2013 from which he took such a long time to recover back to his 2012-13 level(look at Murray's 2014 season), and then the injuries in 2017 that ultimately made him a shell of his former self. People who think that Djokovic played poorly in 2013 Wimbledon final fail to see that Murray was probably the best grasscourt player in 2012-2013. Yes, he lost the Wimby final to Fed, but straight setted him a couple of weeks back to win the Olympics Gold medal, having won the semifinal against Djokovic. The bias against Andy is evident in this forum. The dip in his level post his back surgery can also be proven by the fact that his H2H against an ageing Fed got reserved post 2013. Federer was not better in 2014-15 than he was before 2012.

 

[abhi_trip]

1. Injury unluckiness in his 2012-2016 prime (2013, 2014 etc) then underachieved in first part of 2017
2. Stupidity of trying to play through injury at Wimbledon in 2017 means he screwed opportunity to take on inflation era from 2017-2022 - 0 inflation era slams is underachievement

This is the most realistic answer. I guess his body was finished by the end of 2016, and overplaying in 2017 just made it beyond repair. It's a shame, as he could've definitely won a couple more Wimbledons. People don't seem to realize his prowess on grass.

 

[NatF]

I think he should've won a couple more slams given his abilities, his problem was running into the Big 3 in slam SFs and finals too often. Agreed on his top gear though (at least relative to Big 3 and Wawrinka), but consistency is a talent as well. Is there any other player in the open era with a similar number of slams to him who has anywhere near the number of slam finals and Masters wins/finals that Murray has? I don't even like Andy's game, but I respect him.

IMO when we speak of abilities we're mostly talking about that top gear that the very best players have. Yes Murray ran into the Big 3 often in the latter rounds of majors but that's to be expected in a very top heavy era, the fact is he often lost in straight sets or rather limply in four. For sure his consistency was great but I think he played in the perfect era for consistency as well. I'm not saying he wasn't a great player, certainly none of the younger players have yet approached his level but I don't think he underachieved by much if at all.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Murray being best grass courter back in 2012-13/15 was one of biggest myths ever told. He was placed ahead of Djokovic and Federer as the favorite for W15. But guess Federer totally exposed him in Wimbledon semis. I was one of just two posters here who predicted that demolition job because I always knew Murray is hype job. He stands no chance against in form Big 3.

 

[abhi_trip]

He stands no chance against in form Big 3.

The statement is quite ironic that your signature mocks Octo for saying "Rafa has never faked injury in his entire career.".

 

[D.Nalby12]

The statement is quite ironic that your signature mocks Octo for saying "Rafa has never faked injury in his entire career.".

It's true. Just check his slam record against Big 3. If he was really capable of beating them consistently - he would have got 5-6 slams at least given his consistency.

 

[TTMR]

If the wind thing is BS, why was Ferrer dominating Djokovic before the postponement?

 

[ichaseballs]

hey better being an overachiever like murray, than an underachiever like so many other tennis pros

 

[RS]

If the wind thing is BS, why was Ferrer dominating Djokovic before the postponement?

Apparently it was windy in there in the early stages too.

 

[Terenigma]

Murray being best grass courter back in 2012-13/15 was one of biggest myths ever told. He was placed ahead of Djokovic and Federer as the favorite for W15. But guess Federer totally exposed him in Wimbledon semis. I was one of just two posters here who predicted that demolition job because I always knew Murray is hype job. He stands no chance against in form Big 3.

I agree that him being called "the best grass courter" at any point in that period was ridiculous but I hate when people go overboard with the reverse logic. Murray DOES stand a chance against in-form Big 3. He might one of the very few players that is able to step up to them in-form.

That's the problem with Murray and the discussions about him, He's right in the middle of overrated/underrated. He's neither, he's rated accurately as in that he was able to compete with the Big 3 and snatch some big wins but they had a higher peak when it came down to peak vs peak. Acting like any of the Big 3 would wipe the floor with Murray is a bigger myth than him being the best grass courter in 2015. They are better than him but he was never significantly worse.

 

[RS]

I agree that him being called "the best grass courter" at any point in that period was ridiculous but I hate when people go overboard with the reverse logic. Murray DOES stand a chance against in-form Big 3. He might one of the very few players that is able to step up to them in-form.

That's the problem with Murray and the discussions about him, He's right in the middle of overrated/underrated. He's neither, he's rated accurately as in that he was able to compete with the Big 3 and snatch some big wins but they had a higher peak when it came down to peak vs peak. Acting like any of the Big 3 would wipe the floor with Murray is a bigger myth than him being the best grass courter in 2015. They are better than him but he was never significantly worse.

With 19/18 and 17 less slams?

 

[D.Nalby12]

I agree that him being called "the best grass courter" at any point in that period was ridiculous but I hate when people go overboard with the reverse logic. Murray DOES stand a chance against in-form Big 3. He might one of the very few players that is able to step up to them in-form.

That's the problem with Murray and the discussions about him, He's right in the middle of overrated/underrated. He's neither, he's rated accurately as in that he was able to compete with the Big 3 and snatch some big wins but they had a higher peak when it came down to peak vs peak. Acting like any of the Big 3 would wipe the floor with Murray is a bigger myth than him being the best grass courter in 2015. They are better than him but he was never significantly worse.

Let's face it - Murray was very consistent against lower field but his ceiling was very low. That's why his Slam record against Big 3 is no better than Tsongas and Berdych. There are players like Wawrinka, Potro who were less consistent but peaked way higher than Murray. They stood chance against in form Big 3 occasionally but not Murray. I don't think Murray would win even a set against USO 09 version of Fed that was defeated by Potro.

 

[abmk]

Let's face it - Murray was very consistent against lower field but his ceiling was very low. That's why his Slam record against Big 3 is no better than Tsongas and Berdych. There are players like Wawrinka, Potro who were less consistent but peaked way higher than Murray. They stood chance against in form Big 3 occasionally but not Murray. I don't think Murray would win even a set against USO 09 version of Fed that was defeated by Potro.

I think that's little under-rating of Murray.

Murray had a higher peak than Wawa at Wim and had a higher peak at USO as well IMO (08 before final and 12)
Wawa with the higher peak at AO and RG.

Murray's peak at AO and Wim is better than Delpo's and Delpo's is better at RG and USO.

Overall at slams, you can say Wawa/Delpo peak at slams is better (their ceiling is higher IMO), but its not as big as you make it out to be.

Murray playing well would take a set vs fed of USO 09 serving his worst in a slam final IMO. Lets not forget Murray was up a set in Wim 12 and had BP late in the 2nd set.
He'd find it toughest vs anywhere near in-form fed in a slam, but has taken out decent versions of nadal/djokovic in slams (USO 08/AO 10/USO 12).

 

[duaneeo]

Murray being best grass courter back in 2012-13/15 was one of biggest myths ever told. He was placed ahead of Djokovic and Federer as the favorite for W15. But guess Federer totally exposed him in Wimbledon semis. I was one of just two posters here who predicted that demolition job because I always knew Murray is hype job. He stands no chance against in form Big 3.

I think Djokovic being a great grass courter is one of the biggest myths ever told. The 7 Wimbledon titles are mainly due to weak draws and not facing his top contemporaries at their peak/prime. It's telling that the BO3 King has won only one BO3 grass title (2017 Eastbourne, where he faced one top-20 player). Even at the 2012 Olympics, a peak Nole suffered two losses. It's why he typically avoided grass warmup tournaments like the plague.

 

[abhi_trip]

He'd find it toughest vs anywhere near in-form fed in a slam, but has taken out decent versions of nadal/djokovic in slams (USO 08/AO 10/USO 12).

That's a fair assessment. I agree with all that you've said, but have 1 minor quibble. In my opinion, Murray had a higher peak at RG than Delpo. I'm fine the other way as well.
A lot of people who bash Murray here seem to forget that it took him the entire 2014 season to get some semblance of form back, post his 2013 surgery. He had played so many 250s/500s just to get match practice. (The proof is 2 insane 3hr matches against Tommy Robredo). He laid his all just to qualify for the YEC. I wish he had been just as aggressive post 2014, in order to preserve his body a bit more.
I always wonder what the GS count would've looked had Delpo, Murray, and Stan been fit for a longer time. I doubt that any player would've won 20 GSs for sure. It would've made the ATP much better and competitive in my opinion.