Did Nadal make a huge blunder skipping USO ?

terribleIVAN

terribleIVAN

Hall of Fame
Rafa's always based his game on physicality; this year he hardly played at all: he's 34 and coming into RG very, very short on matchplay.

The body's chemistry needs a certain time period to get used to increased effort. Last year it took him 2 months of hard work to find his form on clay; he doesn't have that much time now. Plus the conditions are disadvantaging him compared to other years.

Is Rafa going to be able to play himself into form during the first week of RG, or has he made a huge blunder skipping USO, therefore neglecting his physical preparation, which will ultimately cost him into this year's RG's semis ?
 
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terribleIVAN said:
has he made a huge blunder skipping USO
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Rafa explained that playing the USO hard court, immediately followed by the clay, would put him at high risk of injury. He wanted to train hard and focus on clay and then be in perfect position for Rome and RG. Far better positioned for clay than Joker and Thiem returning from USO.
There you have it. That was his plan.
Straight from the Horse's Mouth.
:rolleyes:
 
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I think it could go a lot like Australia 2019, sure, where he's barely played in a long time, comes in and breezes through the tournament and everyone marvels at how fresh he is, and then he comes up against an actual test and it turned out he wasn't really battle hardened and fit for the fight after all. Being clay I think there is less chance of this happening here, but couple the lack of match time (I do think he's so good on the surface he can play his way into form the way he did in 2011) with the conditions that are clearly not in his favour, and I think there is less reason to assume he's going to stroll to the Roland Garros title than there has been since 2016.
 
terribleIVAN said:
Rafa's always based his game on physicality; this year he hardly played at all: he's coming into RG very, very short on matchplay.

The body's chemistry needs a certain time period to get used to increased effort. Last year it took him 2 months of hard work to find his form on clay; he doesn't have that much time now. Plus the conditions are disadvantaging him compared to other years.

Is Rafa going to be able to play himself into form during the first week of RG, or has he made a huge blunder skipping USO, therefore neglecting his physical preparation, which will ultimately cost him into this year's RG's semis ?
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Yes ... mistake. For all the Rafael fans out there, "Si".
 
"I did my job here [in Rome]. I did a couple of things well and other things bad. That's it."

"At least I played three matches. I fought until the end. But losing that many serves, you can't expect to win a match, no? Something that I have to fix.

"I know how to do it. I'm going to keep working and keep practising with the right attitude and try to give me a chance to be ready."

Nadal is fine :cool:
 
BeatlesFan said:
He's won it 12 times and has lost countless times in clay tune ups. Doubt him at your own peril. The most difficult thing in all of sports is beating Rafa on clay in BO5. None of the next gen sure as hell will touch him on Chatrier.
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How do you think Thiem would match up on him? And does it make a difference if it is a SF or F?
 
BeatlesFan said:
He's won it 12 times and has lost countless times in clay tune ups. Doubt him at your own peril. The most difficult thing in all of sports is beating Rafa on clay in BO5. None of the next gen sure as hell will touch him on Chatrier.
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True. Then again nobody imagined Diego was gonna beat Nadal in Rome either. So....:whistle:
 
This is probably only the second time ever in Nadal's career where people are actually unsure of Nadal's chances in Paris. The last time was in 2015 where he was in awful form and with zero confidence. The opinion among most is that Nadal will manage to play into form by the business end. But then again, he's never been 34 before, never gone into a Slam coming off a 6 month break, never played Paris in the autumn months, never played with a roof or in night sessions in Paris. This is looking like it might not be an automatic 20th Slam for Nadal this time around. Then there's the pressure of tying Federer's Slam count. Who knows? He's gonna go up against some real battle-tested players. Djokovic, Thiem, Zverev, Medvedev, and many other potential threats will be there.
 
I think the guy who really F'd up not playing USO was Fed.

I have a sneaking suspicion he is healthy enough to play and is just playing everything super-safe. But with the way everything went down...even the Fed who bowed out to Djok in straights at the AO20 could have taken out either of the guys we saw in the Final.
 
Rosstour said:
I think the guy who really F'd up not playing USO was Fed.

I have a sneaking suspicion he is healthy enough to play and is just playing everything super-safe. But with the way everything went down...even the Fed who bowed out to Djok in straights at the AO20 could have taken out either of the guys we saw in the Final.
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LOL! Federer wouldn't have even made it to the second week let alone having a shot in hell against either of Zverev or Thiem.
He's too old really. Thiem has bested him numerous times now.
 
Yes but only because he could have won it! First week he would have played himself into form and then be rolling by the 2nd week. That’s how it works always no?
 
I don't agree, Federer would have won USO without Djokovic. Thiem and Zverev played below grand slam final level. Federer thrives in this situations.
 
Rosstour said:
I think the guy who really F'd up not playing USO was Fed.

I have a sneaking suspicion he is healthy enough to play and is just playing everything super-safe. But with the way everything went down...even the Fed who bowed out to Djok in straights at the AO20 could have taken out either of the guys we saw in the Final.
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You think he lied about having a 2nd surgery on his knee?
 
BeatlesFan said:
He's won it 12 times and has lost countless times in clay tune ups. Doubt him at your own peril. The most difficult thing in all of sports is beating Rafa on clay in BO5. None of the next gen sure as hell will touch him on Chatrier.
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800.jpeg
 
Rafa has only lost 2 BO5 matches in his life on clay to this day. It would be asenine to think he's going to roll over in Paris. That said, like Mike Sams said..... he's never been 34 either. If there was ever a time to say one match at a time, it's 2020. Im waiting on the draw before feeling anything. Cautious.
 
Mike Sams said:
LOL! Federer wouldn't have even made it to the second week let alone having a shot in hell against either of Zverev or Thiem.
He's too old really. Thiem has bested him numerous times now.
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A quick look at their H2H reveals two kinds of matches. Close wins for Dominic and blowouts for Fed.

The five wins for Thiem are all close. Three of them went the distance, and none of them had blowout sets for Thiem. The final sets were all 6-4 or 7-5.

Fed only has two wins to be sure, but they are both blowouts where Thiem won five total games, and even in the matches he lost, the sets he won were very decisive. Thiem has never blown Roger out in a match or even a set. What does that tell us?

Tennisbg said:
I don't agree, Federer would have won USO without Djokovic. Thiem and Zverev played below grand slam final level. Federer thrives in this situations.
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Yup. Zverev choked vs Thiem, he would have done so vs Fed. And Thiem was on one leg. Fed would have wrecked his BH like Zverev should have.

MeatTornado said:
You think he lied about having a 2nd surgery on his knee?
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Maybe. I didn't believe his excuse for the knee surgery in 2016 (slipping in the bathtub lol) and I don't even begrudge these athletes the right to keep some things private.

Remember Serena's foot injury from a broken glass? Uhh...she was out for the better part of a year and came back with a new face. She ducked out of the limelight to have rather extensive and very good cosmetic surgery done. So...I take the reasons for prolonged absences with a grain of salt, always.
 
Rosstour said:
Maybe. I didn't believe his excuse for the knee surgery in 2016 (slipping in the bathtub lol) and I don't even begrudge these athletes the right to keep some things private.
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This season I at least understand the logic of laying low.

But what reason would he have had to make up his 2016 injury and sit out all that time?
 
terribleIVAN said:
Rafa's always based his game on physicality; this year he hardly played at all: he's 34 and coming into RG very, very short on matchplay.

The body's chemistry needs a certain time period to get used to increased effort. Last year it took him 2 months of hard work to find his form on clay; he doesn't have that much time now. Plus the conditions are disadvantaging him compared to other years.

Is Rafa going to be able to play himself into form during the first week of RG, or has he made a huge blunder skipping USO, therefore neglecting his physical preparation, which will ultimately cost him into this year's RG's semis ?
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I agree Nadal absolutely should’ve played both. I don’t buy his argument that hard courts were tough on him. And as far as being goat another RG worth half of what one more US open would’ve been.
 
i would have been ok with him playing cincinnatti and us open and skipping roland garros and clay for this year........in hindsight i feel he blew a great chance of adding another us open to his tally.........another roland garros that too in warmer climate is coming very soon in 8 months which he can target easily.........
 
He'll win FO regardless but he made a huge blunder by skipping USO because he had a great chance to win it given Novak's DQ.

The way Thiem and Zverev were out-choking one another in the finals Rafa would have beaten either easily just by keeping the ball in play.
 
Tennisbg said:
I don't agree, Federer would have won USO without Djokovic. Thiem and Zverev played below grand slam final level. Federer thrives in this situations.
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What were Federer's USO results over the past 7-8 years? Losses to Berdych, Robredo, Cilic, Del Potro, Millman, Dimitrov...and you think he was going to wreck havoc at the US Open this year at age 39 and after a second knee surgery? :unsure:
 
Mike Sams said:
What were Federer's USO results over the past 7-8 years? Losses to Berdych, Robredo, Cilic, Del Potro, Millman, Dimitrov...and you think he was going to wreck havoc at the US Open this year at age 39 and after a second knee surgery? :unsure:
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I think knowing that Nadal and Djokovic are out, he was going to play as good as he can. He always does it when he knows he has chances to win vs weaker opponents. Of course there is no way to know what would have happened. It's just a thought.
 
If the reason was safety fears concerning Corona, then it’s a personal thing and of course fully acceptable.

If he had other "reasons" then it’s stupid, just as Federer skipping clay for some years without injury. If you compete for the Slam record the last thing you should do is deliberately skipping Slams (and therefore missing chances) out of fear or mere assumption you will be better in the NEXT Slam if you do so.

And it’s not in the sense of the sport of course. From that viewpoints I was almost glad about the Anderson loss in 2018, because I think that made Federer play clay again.
 
MeatTornado said:
Maybe we can consider talking about this after RG. Too early now.

Maybe he loses because he's extremely rusty. Maybe he wins it because by the end of two weeks of grinding Bo5 clay, he'll be the most fresh guy out there.

Only time will tell.
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But are your Snax ready? :D

PMX-Food-Collage-1024x768.jpg
 
Hitman said:
From a preparation for RG perspective, no he didn't make a blunder.
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Did he look prepared to you ?

Don't you think he would have been better prepared contending on a tennis court in Cincinatti, then the USO ?

Novak did exactly that, and he's now on the verge of another clay title in Rome. Why couldn't Rafa ?

After more than 6 months break ??
 
terribleIVAN said:
Did he look prepared to you ?
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For Rome? No. But I'm talking about RG here, there is still plenty of time for that. I am sure he will be fine. I did mention he was moving slow in his first match, so he has things to work on.

terribleIVAN said:
Don't you think he would have been better prepared contending on a tennis court in Cincinatti, then the USO ?
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Are we talking about the tournament or the court itself? Because Cincy and USO were played on the same courts. If he was going to play Cincy, he was going to play USO also IMO.

terribleIVAN said:
Novak did exactly that, and he's now on the verge of another clay title in Rome. Why couldn't Rafa ?

After more than 6 months break ??
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To be fair, Novak has had an easier draw than Rafa in Rome. Novak hasn't exactly been lighting it up in Rome either.
 
Nadal does not need HC matchplay to get ready on clay. He would have liked more match play in Rome though. All said he will be fine for RG. By R4 that machine is going to be well oiled and whirring and revving towards a potential #20. We have seen this before.
 
MeatTornado said:
This season I at least understand the logic of laying low.

But what reason would he have had to make up his 2016 injury and sit out all that time?
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I'm not saying he made up the injury but I don't buy the reason. And maybe the injury was BS too, who knows.

He looked pretty bad against Raonic at Wimbledon, he needed something.
 
I don't think Rafa played badly but that Schwarzman played incredibly well against him.
He returned everything. It is so hard to win against someone like that.

I recently played a match "just like that" (on a much much much muuuuuuch lower level of course) and like Rafa, I did not know how to break through the guy.
I was waiting for Rafa to show me the way. But my point is, you do everything right, you paint the lines yet everything comes back. So hard to play against that.
I think that picking up the balls early was the way to win for Schwarzman. Took a lot of time off Rafa and frustrated him.
 
Hitman said:
From a preparation for RG perspective, no he didn't make a blunder.

From a losing a very good chance to win a fifth USO, considering what happened in NYC, yes.
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I assume you refer to the Djokovic incident in writing "considering what happened in NYC." Just to play devils advocate, given the butterfly effect of things, there's probably a 99.9% chance Djokovic would not have been DQ'd had Nadal entered the tournament. So the what-if game is pretty challenging in that scenario.
 
weakera said:
I assume you refer to the Djokovic incident in writing "considering what happened in NYC." Just to play devils advocate, given the butterfly effect of things, there's probably a 99.9% chance Djokovic would not have been DQ'd had Nadal entered the tournament. So the what-if game is pretty challenging in that scenario.
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No, not just the Djokovic thing, but how Thiem and Zverev played in the final. There was all kinds of crazy happening in that event.
 
Hitman said:
No, not just the Djokovic thing, but how Thiem and Zverev played in the final. There was all kinds of crazy happening in that event.
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Well I'd imagine the Djokovic thing is most of it, but you can apply the same notion to the circumstances surrounding the final as well. If either had been facing Nadal, the entire match would have been different and especially the amount of pressure that both were feeling. As well as the breakdown of the draw and the lead in.
 
weakera said:
Well I'd imagine the Djokovic thing is most of it, but you can apply the same notion to the circumstances surrounding the final as well. If either had been facing Nadal, the entire match would have been different and especially the amount of pressure that both were feeling. As well as the breakdown of the draw and the lead in.
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Maybe. But Thiem could be feeling extra pressure since he beat Nadal before at a HC slam, was points away from doing it at USO 2018, maybe he would be expecting this was his time? And Zverev in his first final....he'll certainly be having nerves no matter who he was playing IMO. And I don't think Nadal would be having such a slow start as Thiem did in the slam final.
 
Hitman said:
Maybe. But Thiem could be feeling extra pressure since he beat Nadal before at a HC slam, was points away from doing it at USO 2018, maybe he would be expecting this was his time? And Zverev in his first final....he'll certainly be having nerves no matter who he was playing IMO. And I don't think Nadal would be having such a slow start as Thiem did in the slam final.
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How do we know Nadal even reaches the Final? Maybe he meets Thiem in a semi, maybe he loses well in advance of the final, maybe Djokovic and Thiem meet in the semi? My point is that it's a fruitless game to play and it's impossible to guess at what would've happened if Nadal entered USO by extrapolating like this. Zverev may feel nice and warm for having made a slam final but it took a ton of luck for him to get there, so I'd never presume to imagine he'd have been a finals opponent for Nadal to face there.
 
weakera said:
How do we know Nadal even reaches the Final? Maybe he meets Thiem in a semi, maybe he loses well in advance of the final, maybe Djokovic and Thiem meet in the semi? My point is that it's a fruitless game to play and it's impossible to guess at what would've happened if Nadal entered USO by extrapolating like this. Zverev may feel nice and warm for having made a slam final but it took a ton of luck for him to get there, so I'd never presume to imagine he'd have been a finals opponent for Nadal to face there.
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We don't, but not playing there ensures that we don't get a true answer to that question. Nadal is a solid slam player, he's made five HC slam finals in the previous last three seasons, so I'd say the odds are more in his favor of reaching another slam final on HC than other players not named Djokovic. To me, this was a lost chance. Thiem and Zverev both looked vulnerable in that final, Nadal's big match experience in semis and finals would have given him the edge, especially as he knew he was zeroing in on the 20 slam mark. No one really stood out at the USO for me, to go that Nadal should have sat it out.

Edit - Again this from a USO perspective only, not as a prep for clay and RG.
 
Mike Sams said:
What were Federer's USO results over the past 7-8 years? Losses to Berdych, Robredo, Cilic, Del Potro, Millman, Dimitrov...and you think he was going to wreck havoc at the US Open this year at age 39 and after a second knee surgery? :unsure:
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He was in great form in Us open 2015, no other person but Djokovic could have stopped him that year. If he brought that form to this Us Open, with Djokovic being disqualified, I doubt there'll be any one who can stop him.
 
Hitman said:
We don't, but not playing there ensures that we don't get a true answer to that question. Nadal is a solid slam player, he's made five HC slam finals in the previous last three seasons, so I'd say the odds are more in his favor of reaching another slam final on HC than other players not named Djokovic. To me, this was a lost chance. Thiem and Zverev both looked vulnerable in that final, Nadal's big match experience in semis and finals would have given him the edge, especially as he knew he was zeroing in on the 20 slam mark. No one really stood out at the USO for me, to go that Nadal should have sat it out.

Edit - Again this from a USO perspective only, not as a prep for clay and RG.
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This is all presuming that in this make-believe scenario, Djokovic doesn't exist? It's not like that wouldn't have been a huge hurdle for Nadal to clear - either Djokovic or whichever player conquered him, who obviously would have been in fine form.

Obviously Nadal *could* have won the US Open, but his presence would have made the tournament so different that it's completely useless to draw conclusions based on what played out.
 
weakera said:
This is all presuming that in this make-believe scenario, Djokovic doesn't exist? It's not like that wouldn't have been a huge hurdle for Nadal to clear - either Djokovic or whichever player conquered him, who obviously would have been in fine form.

Obviously Nadal *could* have won the US Open, but his presence would have made the tournament so different that it's completely useless to draw conclusions based on what played out.
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Considering that it was only really Djokovic that looked like he could have beaten Nadal to me, I think Nadal lost an opportunity here, so I don't think it is completely useless even if the draws changed, if anything Djokovic's draw could have gotten harder with Medvedev and Thiem fell into his side. The other players were not lighting it up, the final was shocking at times. For me, for a USO title shot perspective, I don't think he should have sat it out, looking back at what I saw from the top guys. He did what he did with RG in mind, so I don't fault him for that, something I have always said.
 
No he didn't. Nadal, at the time, made a decision wich he thought was best for him. He had his reasons for sitting out, and I think he doesn't regret that even now. There is no point dwelling about stuff in the past. This question has been asked 20 times already with a new thread everytime. It's so easy to be after wise.
 
Hitman said:
From a preparation for RG perspective, no he didn't make a blunder.

From a losing a very good chance to win a fifth USO, considering what happened in NYC, yes.
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I don't think Djokovic would get a DQ if Nadal was in the draw. These are not independent events. Many things would change. Maybe he wouldn't even face Busta.
 
StrongRule said:
I don't think Djokovic would get a DQ if Nadal was in the draw. These are not independent events. Many things would change. Maybe he wouldn't even face Busta.
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If Djokovic was the only real guy to stop him, I think Nadal would have wanted that shot in the final, knowing 20 was on the line. The other players were questionable at the USO.
 
Hitman said:
Considering that it was only really Djokovic that looked like he could have beaten Nadal to me, I think Nadal lost an opportunity here, so I don't think it is completely useless even if the draws changed, if anything Djokovic's draw could have gotten harder with Medvedev and Thiem fell into his side. The other players were not lighting it up, the final was shocking at times. For me, for a USO title shot perspective, I don't think he should have sat it out, looking back at what I saw from the top guys. He did what he did with RG in mind, so I don't fault him for that, something I have always said.
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So only Djokovic could have beaten Nadal, but Thiem and Medvedev could have beaten Djokovic? Meaning Nadal is better than Djokovic, or Thiem matches up better with Djokovic? (if so, explain what happened in Australia?)
 
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