Betting odds imply Djokovic is slightly more likely. But it's definitely close either way lol. Of course Nadal is a bigger favorite at RG than Novak anywhere. Still you're cherry picking stats, but you also said Dimitrov played better than Novak ever did in a SF AO loss to Rafa, so I don't take it personally.
Well Djokovic has only ever won 3 US Opens, despite being the favorite every year, so we know bookmakers are usually wrong about Djokovic at the US Open....
And we know there is no chance in hell of Djokovic being favorite at Roland Garros this year.
I'm cherry picking stats?
I covered the entire last 3 years.
The last 3 French Opens, and the last 3 US Opens, Rafa won 5 of those 6 events.
In fact even the event he lost - 2018 US Open - was impressive, because he reached the SF and retired while still pushing Del Potro to a tiebreaker in the 1st Set.
Many have said Verdasco-Rafa is the highest quality match ever at the AO, and I think if you watch the Rafa-Dimitrov match you'll be similarly impressed by it.
The fact that some people think 2011 US Open was Djokovic's best level, indicates that Djokovic's peak isn't very high, because Rafa wasn't even close to his best in that Final and used the wrong tactic entirely (he lacked confidence and was afraid to hit down-the-line on big points, the opposite of his 2010 and 2013 tactic).