Of course Tsitsipas is better than 2008 Djokovic on clay. Who had Djokovic beaten by 2008 on clay? No one really. He won Rome because he didn't have to play Nadal to get it. He was 2-7 against the top 10 by 2008 RG. Tsitsipas is 8-10 and with a higher winning percentage, and it's Tsitsipas' best surface. Clay never was Djokovic's best surface.
Ok granted, you have a fair point on this one for the whole clay season. But I don’t think you’re giving 2008 Novak much credit here.
Monte-Carlo: I believe Novak was injured for this one (still made a respectable run to the semiswhile Tsitsipas breezed through the draw relatively cleanly (and actually quite impressively for a next gen player). Obviously Tsitsipas.
Madrid/Hamburg: Djokovic fairly easily. Tsitsipas bombed out early to Ruud while Djokovic pushed a solid Nadal pretty hard. It’s another underrated one and imo one of their best clay matches, certainly second best when it comes to Bo3.
Barcelona: 2008 skipped, this goes to Tsitsipas by default.
Lyon: 2008 did not play, Tsitsipas by default
Rome: I’d give this to Djokovic even if he kinda vultured the tournament with a lame draw only bested by his own 2020 title run. I’d say it’s a bit closer than Madrid, but Novak still takes the win here.
It’s fairly even for the whole clay season barring RG. I’d even give the edge to Djokovic a bit here. RG is where we really differ.
Also, the top 10 numbers you’ve pulled don’t seem to be right for clay. Did you take them from the whole seasons up to that point, including the hard court ones?
At any rate, here’s the top 10 records on clay heading into the French Open matches in question (the 200:
Djokovic: 0-2 (the losses were to Nadal and Federer)
Tsitsipas: 4-2 (the wins are against Medvedev, Zverev, Berrettini, and Rublev, losses were to Djokovic and Nadal)
Tsitsipas definitely favored here, but to be honest I’d imagine Djokovic beating all of those extra top ten players except for maybe Zverev (and still the jury’s out on that), so I don’t personally think that tells us an awful lot. Tsitsipas also lost to Ruud at Madrid who was out of the top 10 (though to his credit is a fine enough clay courter on a good day) while Djokovic was very steady throughout each clay tournament he played. So I don’t think the difference is as wide as those particular numbers state.
If it was that easy to hit through Nadal, someone one would have done it in a BO5 before then. Instead he was undefeated from 2017-2021 in a BO5 on clay.
Well the clay field has been absolutely dire for a long time now (2021 was the best in, what, five years?) so naturally, no such players have come up. It’s certainly not easy to hit through any Nadal on clay; it’s just a less titanic feat doing that to 2021 Nadal compared to 2008 Nadal, I hope that’s clear lol.
A Thiem type of opponent that Nadal has been feasting on over the past few years just simply isn’t going to cut it. I don’t think 2017 Nadal would be that vulnerable considering he had his own incredible artillery to counter that, but bring a Soderling or Mathieu (or Federer that one RG match vs. Nadal when he employed more of a go-for-broke tactic, I can’t remember whether that was 2005 or 2007) to 2018-2020 and it’d be a lot trickier for Nadal given his declined footspeed. And 2021 is a cut below those.
Djokovic was starting matches slow in 2008 Slams as well which isn't exclusive to 2021. I don't think 2008 Djokovic was great on clay and I watched his matches, and he was not a tactical master like he is now. He relied on instinct and hitting the ball hard, which is why he hadn't had much success yet so yea I stand by him getting beaten by his 2021 version.
Ok that’s fair, I think he’d eventually get beaten by 2021, but in four or five sets, not three lmao. Novak hit the ball pretty hard back in 2008, but I think he played a smarter match than you give him credit for. He’d toned the overwhelming power down a bit compared to the 2007 SF for example. I do think you’re right on 2008 Djokovic getting off to a slow start, but I don’t think he ever sunk to such lows as, say, 2021 almost getting bageled in the opening set against Nadal (after that decent opening game) or losing that second set against Tsitsipas the way he did. That’s the bit that convinces me he’d at least grab a set. I don’t see 2021 Djokovic getting through an attacking (if slightly erratic) powerhouse like 2008 Djokovic without having some kind of lapse early on.
