Djokovic and the decline of ability at 28/29

Ussy

Ussy

Rookie
First let me start by saying congrats to Novak Djokovic and his fans, coming from a die hard fed fan... Truly Amazing year!

Now what I want to discuss (without the fanboyism please) is when will Djokovic lose a step? He reaches 29 next year and if my memory serves me correctly 28/29 is the age of decline in footspeed/reactions in tennis throughout the history of the sport and general decline. So when will this inevitably happen to Nole? How much of an impact will it have on his success & game (I for one think it will be huge) and who will take advantage of it?

My take is I think we will see big signs of this next year, however he will still have a great season remaining at no.1 but nowhere near as dominant as this year, 2 slams or so.... Discuss
 
Ussy said:
First let me started by saying congrats to Novak Djokovic and his fans coming from a from a die hard fed fan... Truly Amazing year!

Now what I want to discuss (without the fanboyism please) is when will Djokovic lose a step? He reaches 29 next year and if my memory serves me correctly 28/29 is the age of decline in footspeed/reactions in tennis throughout the history of the sport and general decline. So when will this inevitably happen to Nole? How much on an impact will it have on his success & game (I for one think it will be huge) and who will take advantage of it?

My take is I think we will see big signs of this next year, however he will still have a great season remaining at no.1 but nowhere near as dominant as this year, 2 slams or so.... Discuss
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Look at the field. Djokovic is still one of the youngest at the top 10. The general rule does not apply any more.
 
Could start next yr, or at 30, 31, nobody knows.

Guys like Ferrer and wawrinKa have peaked around 30. Fed at 34 played better than 32,33.

We could see Novak getting even better before he starts declining. Right now, 30 is the average age of peaking.
 
I'd like to know the total amount of hours spent on court in each year from 2011-2015. I'm too lazy to do the calculation myself. If somebody has that information from the previous years, post it here please.
 
Impossible to predict. Federer is now better than in 2013, two years older.

He is coming in the general age of decadence, but it is still one of the youngest in the top 10.

If age get him, will come to others as well.
 
Luiz said:
Impossible to predict. Federer is now better than in 2013, two years older.

He is coming in the general age of decadence, but it is still one of the youngest in the top 10.

If age get him, will come to others as well.
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It will get to a point where Raonic is taking him out of slams, are you ready for that?
 
He might get slower, but with his serve improving and his shot selection also improving, you will hardly see it.

Also, just because everyone previously has declined rapidly after a certain age, doesn't mean they always will. Some people on here think they're scientists or medical experts, when really they're just assuming what has happened will be the script until the end of time. No.

I predict Djokovic's speed and durability will stay the same for 2016 and 2017 and then starting 2018 he'll get noticeably slower, but by then his serve will be even better than it is today and he will probably be much more aggressive. So slightly shorter points, easier on the body.
 
Not only are there no young players in sight, but more importantly, advancements have allowed players to sustain excellence for far longer than they used to. Federer isn't so much an anomaly as he is a sign of the times. Don't know if Djokovic will play as long as he has, but I expect him to play on his own terms to the bitter end, winning until then. Barring injury, no decline in the foreseeable future.
 
Ussy said:
First let me start by saying congrats to Novak Djokovic and his fans, coming from a die hard fed fan... Truly Amazing year!

Now what I want to discuss (without the fanboyism please) is when will Djokovic lose a step? He reaches 29 next year and if my memory serves me correctly 28/29 is the age of decline in footspeed/reactions in tennis throughout the history of the sport and general decline. So when will this inevitably happen to Nole? How much of an impact will it have on his success & game (I for one think it will be huge) and who will take advantage of it?

My take is I think we will see big signs of this next year, however he will still have a great season remaining at no.1 but nowhere near as dominant as this year, 2 slams or so.... Discuss
Click to expand...

The problem is, we don't have young up and coming players who are good enough to expose this, so we may never get to see Djokovic declining at 29.

Sampras had Kuerten, Safin, Hewitt and some more young guns. Djokovic's main challengers are around his age or even older. Unless guys like Kyrgios, Coric, Thiem, Chung, etc, improve rapidly and start winning slams from next year, I think Djokovic won't be troubled much because his other rivals are hitting 29/30 next year. Too bad the mid-20s generation sucks so much.
 
Ussy said:
First let me start by saying congrats to Novak Djokovic and his fans, coming from a die hard fed fan... Truly Amazing year!

Now what I want to discuss (without the fanboyism please) is when will Djokovic lose a step? He reaches 29 next year and if my memory serves me correctly 28/29 is the age of decline in footspeed/reactions in tennis throughout the history of the sport and general decline. So when will this inevitably happen to Nole? How much of an impact will it have on his success & game (I for one think it will be huge) and who will take advantage of it?

My take is I think we will see big signs of this next year, however he will still have a great season remaining at no.1 but nowhere near as dominant as this year, 2 slams or so.... Discuss
Click to expand...

I think he will decline soon enough - can't stay at the top for much longer. I am not basing this on Nole - I am basing it on watching sports across all disciplines for 20 years and I don't see him staying there much longer - another 12 months maybe. Injury, tiredness, lack of motivation are all around the corner - in saying that there appears to be no one ready to take over.
 
Novak turned 28.5 today. This means he is Finnish, as scientifically proven by a study of past results of slam champions (the sample size is about 50 open era slam champions). He managed to hold on today, but had they played tomorrow, he'd have lost. Decline slows down in one's mid 30s, so Federer would have had the advantage
 
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Also, in that large sample, there are no exceptional cases, which proves it even more. For example, Agassi did not have his most successful year at 29, nor did Connors have his second most at that age, nor was Lendl #1 past his 30th birthday, and nor did Wawrinka win his only two slams after he was 28.5, nor Gomez and Korda their only slams at 30
 
Ussy said:
First let me start by saying congrats to Novak Djokovic and his fans, coming from a die hard fed fan... Truly Amazing year!

Now what I want to discuss (without the fanboyism please) is when will Djokovic lose a step? He reaches 29 next year and if my memory serves me correctly 28/29 is the age of decline in footspeed/reactions in tennis throughout the history of the sport and general decline. So when will this inevitably happen to Nole? How much of an impact will it have on his success & game (I for one think it will be huge) and who will take advantage of it?

My take is I think we will see big signs of this next year, however he will still have a great season remaining at no.1 but nowhere near as dominant as this year, 2 slams or so.... Discuss
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be too sure about next year. He's the most fit tennis player I've ever seen. He treats his body like an expensive sports car. Only puts the absolute best into it. Plus he's extremely flexible so physically he won't be wearing down anytime soon. I'd say in a couple of years we will see decline in ability but not next year.
 
He'll decline slowly over the next 4 years unless he suffers an injury. Just look at Ferrer and Fed and Stan and well anyone other than Rafa
 
VexlanderPrime said:
He'll decline slowly over the next 4 years unless he suffers an injury. Just look at Ferrer and Fed and Stan and well anyone other than Rafa
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Not "anyone other than Rafa," you mean everyone else basically in the Open Era past 30.

The only guys who won a slam after 30 were Gomez, Roger, Connors, Rosewall, Ashe, Pete (1), Korda and Andre.
 
uliks said:
Some resident decline experts believes that 28.5 y/o is that magical period when decline will kick-in Djokovics body. So he should be in decline already for almost two days now...
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Yup, I have seen the decline starting when he handed Federer the match...
 
Okay, here is my opinion.
Djokovic 2015 > Djokovic 2011
4 years older he is a better player than he was at his 'peak' 2011 year. Add to that competition who got worse this year and we saw a brutal domination.
Of course he can dominate again in 2016, why wouldn't he? If nothing changes on tour, even if he loses a step (which i doubt) he will be the top player.
What is certain is that it should take a very long time before he begins to regularly struggle on tour. He hasn't show any decline so far, you saw today how fast he still is, how hard it is to break him.
He will be there for a very long time, but everything will depend on his motivation and of course the competition where i cant see some radical change in the next 2-3 years.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Not "anyone other than Rafa," you mean everyone else basically in the Open Era past 30.

The only guys who won a slam after 30 were Gomez, Roger, Connors, Rosewall, Ashe, Pete (1), Korda and Andre.
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gimono won the French open in 1972 aged 37 although it was a depleated field I think.
 
The decline is inevitable, even for Djok. You will be surprised how quick it will happen.

His style is not that friendly to the body either, not as good as Fed but not as bad as Nadal. But still, age does strange things to you. Remember it's not only physical, it will be mental too. Pressure builds up, expectations, doubts, disappointments.

29 is old in tennis age, even today. Sampras and Fed won only 2 majors after turning 28. Nadal has won one.

I predict Djoker has 2-3 more in him. 3 Because there is noone to stop him.

Funny thing is, I think Fed will wait him out. He will be around for one more major when Djok is finally down, by age.

As early as W of '16
 
Yes, Djokovic could decline rapidly, but it's also quite possible he goes on for a few more years. According to a quick web search, that number for decline of athletes shows up as 26 (even earlier for swimmers). But given the years Djokovic had at 27 and 28, it would seem he's far away from any decline, so go figure. Consider also the last two years that Federer would likely have had at 33 and 34 if not for Djokovic (2014 Wimby, 2015 Wimby, USO and WTF). Wawrinka peaked close to 30, and other players are now having good careers (relative to their earlier results) when pushing/pulling 30.

There are no young players pushing for the top or challenging Djokovic. You can see that it took him a long time to figure out and put together the physical and mental side to reach and remain at the top, and any new player has a long road to get there.

http://www.wired.com/2011/07/athletes-peak-age/
 
I think Djokovic will keep dominating but not like this year in terms of results. I get the feeling he won't win more than 2 slams next year, getting upset by unexpected players. He will still win plenty and will be comfortably leading on the rankings. The most important target for him will be French Open. I think it is somewhat ironic he hasn't on yet, but we'll see what his destiny will be.
 
When Federer the lion was aging, tennis already had young cubs in the likes of Djokovic, Muray & Nadal(somewhat established by that time). So the moment Federer lost a step, they were ready to pounce on him and climb the ladder.

Now djokovic the lion has nobody to take advantage of. May be a new young gun will arrive, but I don't know who it is and when he will arrive. My guess is max 1&1/2 years time.
 
Note that Federer at 34 and far from his best would still have won 2 slams if not for Djokovic. So it is not just about a player's decline but also whether there is someone out there who can take advantage of it and stop the said player.

Federer's decline started really early given that he was a late bloomer. I think he was never the same player since his mono in 2008, his consistency , overall stamina and explosiveness just went away. Add to that all the family distractions he has had for the past 6 years with multiple sets of twins explains to some extent why he wasn't able to pick up a few more slams between ages 28-32.

Also he had two more ATGs and double digit slam winners coming after him even when he was in his prime, whereas there is none in sight to trouble Djokovic whose main 'threat' now is the geriatric on his last legs. Let's be honest here, as great as Djoker's level has been this year, who knows how things would have turned out if he had met someone other than Federer in some of the big finals.
 
Seriously he's that dominant at the minute that even if he did start to "decline' in 2016 I really don't think it would be by a significant enough amount for it to even register and impact his results.
I'm fully expecting him to remain #1 right throughout 2016 and to enter each of the Slams and tournaments he plays as favorite...how that transpires to results can obviously come down to what happens on the day but I'd be surprised if he dropped below 12K points.
 
Djokodal Fan said:
When Federer the lion was aging, tennis already had young cubs in the likes of Djokovic, Muray & Nadal(somewhat established by that time). So the moment Federer lost a step, they were ready to pounce on him and climb the ladder.

Now djokovic the lion has nobody to take advantage of. May be a new young gun will arrive, but I don't know who it is and when he will arrive. My guess is max 1&1/2 years time.
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Well said. Novak needs a younger rival. But there doesn't seem to be anyone. But it did result in a fantastic year for us to witness.
 
One thing which has changed in the sport is that it is more endurance based than explosive. This is why the ages are shifting upwards. Also why much less youngsters are breaking through. I think the peak starts much later. Probably mid 20s and i think we'll see guys l playing into the late 30s depending on the desire.
 
I think it's strange to assume decline will start next year, given the fact that he just had his bet year ever. I think he may only start declining when he's 30. Otoh, decline will look different for Djokovic than for Nadal and Federer. Federer's main asset was his shot making, and he could use that to shorten the points. He could still play by his main strenghts. I do think that if Djokovic slows down a little bit it will have a relatively large effect on his results, assuming there will be players able to beat him.
 
OddJack said:
The decline is inevitable, even for Djok. You will be surprised how quick it will happen.

His style is not that friendly to the body either, not as good as Fed but not as bad as Nadal. But still, age does strange things to you. Remember it's not only physical, it will be mental too. Pressure builds up, expectations, doubts, disappointments.

29 is old in tennis age, even today. Sampras and Fed won only 2 majors after turning 28. Nadal has won one.

I predict Djoker has 2-3 more in him. 3 Because there is noone to stop him.

Funny thing is, I think Fed will wait him out. He will be around for one more major when Djok is finally down, by age.

As early as W of '16
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Must say this comment struck a chord with me, i also think something similar will happen in that the tennis world will be surprised how quick his decline will happen, even though history has taught us this with great champions, also IMO he has never been the most mentally rock solid so how age affects that will be interesting.

I also think that djoko has 2-3, maybe 4 more majors at max and that Fed may just wait him out which would be absolutely ridiculous if you think about it, wimbledon 2016 and the approach to it will be very very interesting!
 
If you are expecting a Djokovic decline, yes old age beckons. But before it gets "better", it will get "worse". Could be a few more years of outright dominance.
 
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Sabratha said:
He took a set off Novak in 2011 at Wimbledon. Not bad for an 18 year old.
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Yep, Tomic seemed very legit at the time. Back then I would have guessed he'd be at least top 5 by now.
Crazy how not only Tomic, but Dimitrov, Raonic, Nishikori, Goffin, Janowicz, Harrison, Young etc all failed to develop into elite champions (of course they still have time to make solid careers). Not to mention a plethora of top junior talents who really struggled to transition to the pros (or didn't make it at all). Looking at the ITF junior rankings from like 2006 - 2010 is very revealing.


So anyway to tie that into this thread: Djokovic seems to have great health and a perfect regimen. I do really wonder whether he will maintain his physical prime longer than others. But, looks like it may not matter either way. It could even be hard to tell whether Djokovic declines or not in the next 1-2 years.

The Lost Generation caused a weird situation, where Novak has lacked any young challengers, and probably will continue to for a while. (In addition top tier 2 players like Delpo and Soderling having health issues, Nadal declining, and Murray becoming a perennial bridesmaid are also contributing factors as well) IMO Novak will continue to dominate, until someone new comes along. Still too early to say who said new champion(s) will be, since they all have so far to go.
 
GOAT thread


Special shout out out to Sabratha for predicting a Raonic type player would take Djoker out at tournaments


Only it was more like Querry lol
 
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