Djokovic CYGS

What are the chances of Djokovic CYGS?


  • Total voters
    47
If there is anyone in the Open Era who could do it, it will be Novak Djokovic IMO.

2020 or 2021 could be the year he does the CYGS. The only question is Nadal in Paris. Otherwise Novak is the overwhelming favorite in every other slam.
If that was the case he would have done it already during his peak.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Where's 0%?
I wondered the same thing. One guy has done it in 51 years in which 200+ major finals have been contested. Anyone thinking there's a "25% chance" is delusional. Based on Novak's history and tennis history in general, there is literally a .05% chance of it happening-- for ANY player.
 

Lew II

G.O.A.T.
So if RG and W cancelled and Novak won US, Could it be counted as a CYGS?
If tennis is cancelled Novak will achieve 2020 CYGS, having won 100% of slams in 2020, and will be infinite weeks #1.

I challenge you to say he'll not be GOAT then.
 

Druss

Hall of Fame
If tennis is cancelled Novak will achieve 2020 CYGS, having won 100% of slams in 2020, and will be infinite weeks #1.

I challenge you to say he'll not be GOAT then.
If that were to happen, there will forever be an asterisk next to that stat.
 

RaulRamirez

Legend
So if RG and W cancelled and Novak won US, Could it be counted as a CYGS?
Honestly, with the spread of COVID-19, there are a million more pressing concerns, but I would only count that as a "CYGS" if he wins the next two to follow, although I guess that would be a NCYGS.

But what if ...playing this out...he wins AO (already did) and USO this year, loses next year's AO, but then wins FO and WC next year? Or, if he wins the next three that are played, whatever they are? (No, I'm not predicting this.)
 

Lgoel

New User
10 percent for French, 50 for Wimbledon, 25 for us. Total 1.25 percent. Djokovic has only 1 french after so many finals, and he has really screwed up us open finals.
 

Sunny014

Legend
Mathematically it has to be more than 50% because he has already won 2 out of 4 slams.

My guess is WImbledon he is the fav and the USO is a tricky one, that is where he can be stopped by Stefanos or Med or anyone.

So adding Wimbledon I would say 3 out of 4, thats 75%
 

FedeRadi

Rookie
Mathematically it has to be more than 50% because he has already won 2 out of 4 slams.

My guess is WImbledon he is the fav and the USO is a tricky one, that is where he can be stopped by Stefanos or Med or anyone.

So adding Wimbledon I would say 3 out of 4, thats 75%
It doesn't work this way.

If you have 10 coin flips, and you want 10 heads, after 9 heads you haven't 90% probability that will have 10 heads, but 50%(The probability the last one is head).

In order to calculate the probability to win the CYGS, you have to multiplicate the probability he has to win each slam.

(Important: 100% is 1, 70% is 0.7, 15% is 0.15 and so on)

Example:
Djokovic probability to win each slam:
Australian Open: 100% (He already won that one)
French Open: 100% (Same)
Wimbledon: Say... 45%
Us Open: Say... 35%

CYGS Probability: 1 * 1 * 0,45 * 0,35 = 0,1575 = 15,75%

This is only an example, I had some random(But reasoneable IMO) % for Wimbledon and US Open. It's only to explain the math behind this.

Obviously, proability is a subjective thing. So how many probability he has to do the CYGS depends how likely we think he would win Wimbledon and USO(Duh).

We can make some consideration here(Using bookies odds):
Bookies, that are usually pretty accurate, had odds for Nole to winning each of Wimbledon or USO at 2.20.
2.20 can be converted in a probablity of: 1/(2.20) = 45,5%. That's the probability bookies think Nole had to win Wimbledon, and US Open.
This is not accurate, obviously bookies have their mark-up, so the probabilty they think he has is slightly lower. If bookies have a markup of 3,5%, Djokovic has, in their opinion, 42% probability of win Wimbledon, and 42% probability of winning USO.
With the same math we did before, we can say:
CYGS Probability: 1(AO) * 1(RG) * 0.42(WIM) * 0.42(USO) = 0.1764 = 17,64%

Last consideration(Using winning %):

We can watch at doing the CYGS in another way. Not win next 2 GS tournament, but win next 14 matches.
In the same way, we have to multiplicate the chanche Nole has to win every match. Obviously he hasn't same chance in every match, but we can use a mean.
Nole has a GS winning % of 87,3%.
So we can do:
CYGS Probability: 0.873 * 0.873 * ... * 0.873 (14 times) = 0.873^14 = 0,1493 = 14,93%

In a similiar way, he has a winning % of 87,8% at Wimbledon and 86,2% at US Open.
In that way he has to win 7 match at Wimbledon and 7 match at USO.
CYGS Porbability: 0,878^7 * 0,862^7 = 0.4022(Probability to win Wimbledon) * 0,3536(Probability to win US Open) = 0.1422 = 14,22%

Conclusion:

According to bookies and his previous stats, we can say Nole has something about 15% to win CYGS. 1/2 points less, 1/2 points more.
 

Sunny014

Legend
Had Roger been strong then probability
It doesn't work this way.

If you have 10 coin flips, and you want 10 heads, after 9 heads you haven't 90% probability that will have 10 heads, but 50%(The probability the last one is head).

In order to calculate the probability to win the CYGS, you have to multiplicate the probability he has to win each slam.

(Important: 100% is 1, 70% is 0.7, 15% is 0.15 and so on)

Example:
Djokovic probability to win each slam:
Australian Open: 100% (He already won that one)
French Open: 100% (Same)
Wimbledon: Say... 45%
Us Open: Say... 35%

CYGS Probability: 1 * 1 * 0,45 * 0,35 = 0,1575 = 15,75%

This is only an example, I had some random(But reasoneable IMO) % for Wimbledon and US Open. It's only to explain the math behind this.

Obviously, proability is a subjective thing. So how many probability he has to do the CYGS depends how likely we think he would win Wimbledon and USO(Duh).

We can make some consideration here(Using bookies odds):
Bookies, that are usually pretty accurate, had odds for Nole to winning each of Wimbledon or USO at 2.20.
2.20 can be converted in a probablity of: 1/(2.20) = 45,5%. That's the probability bookies think Nole had to win Wimbledon, and US Open.
This is not accurate, obviously bookies have their mark-up, so the probabilty they think he has is slightly lower. If bookies have a markup of 3,5%, Djokovic has, in their opinion, 42% probability of win Wimbledon, and 42% probability of winning USO.
With the same math we did before, we can say:
CYGS Probability: 1(AO) * 1(RG) * 0.42(WIM) * 0.42(USO) = 0.1764 = 17,64%

Last consideration(Using winning %):

We can watch at doing the CYGS in another way. Not win next 2 GS tournament, but win next 14 matches.
In the same way, we have to multiplicate the chanche Nole has to win every match. Obviously he hasn't same chance in every match, but we can use a mean.
Nole has a GS winning % of 87,3%.
So we can do:
CYGS Probability: 0.873 * 0.873 * ... * 0.873 (14 times) = 0.873^14 = 0,1493 = 14,93%

In a similiar way, he has a winning % of 87,8% at Wimbledon and 86,2% at US Open.
In that way he has to win 7 match at Wimbledon and 7 match at USO.
CYGS Porbability: 0,878^7 * 0,862^7 = 0.4022(Probability to win Wimbledon) * 0,3536(Probability to win US Open) = 0.1422 = 14,22%

Conclusion:

According to bookies and his previous stats, we can say Nole has something about 15% to win CYGS. 1/2 points less, 1/2 points more.
You are right about the probability calculations.

I agree.
 
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