Djokovic facing Sinner vs Alcaraz going foreward

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Djokovic career is nearing finish line at age 37. What can keep him going forward is winning the biggest titles or at least be in the finals of them contesting. The biggest obstacles between him and slams is these two Sinner and Alcaraz. This is what I feel about both for coming 1/2 years.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz look to be straight up shotmaking contest. At least from Alcaraz side, you know what is coming. Alcaraz will try to use his speed and power advantage wholly vs Djokovic. Last year he faced Djokovic on Cincinnati while starting to go through a slump but it did not matter when he faced Djokovic. This guy can literally end the shots in 1 stroke. Very similar to Federer but even better because he will do it during rallies unlike Federer's serve or +1. I think Djokovic knows his chances will be better owning the baseline, being centrally based and go with more power to corners. If Alcaraz is very far back, go to the net. Raz is no Nadal in passing honestly, but he is still very good. If Raz is better, he is better. But Djokovic can still play his game.

Djokovic vs Sinner matches have mostly happened in fast courts where current Djokovic should be at advantage but he is not as of today. Sinner will stand very close to the baseline and while his returns in is not as good as Alcaraz, he will hit returns with more impact, getting to players backhand more, and more depth. Now I think Sinner will not be looking to end point quickly but playing with more power than Djokovic on average. He just has more power on serve, on forehands, backhands etc. Djokovic's chances increase when he is able to overpower Sinner especially on forehand side, Sinner backhand is too good vs declining Djokovic. Also Djokovic probably doesn't have easier time vs Sinner as well as Sinner is aggressive returner. His passing shot is somewhere near Alcaraz's level, maybe 1 notch behind.

What makes most difference is quality of serving. Sinner was historically a bad server. His first serve when landed was great but he used to hit 55% of them in. He has worked very hard on it. Alcaraz has always maximized his serving where in Wimbledon final, his average first serve speed was 122 mph , 4 mph faster than Djokovic but he will not become elite server unless he increases accuracy. Djokovic teed off his serves in Olympics a lot of times. So Sinner has absolute advantage in Serving. While Alcaraz has absolute advantage in rallies.

Now coming to slams and atp finals

Low bouncing ATP finals is more suited to Sinner than Alcaraz.
AO is somewhat more neutral to both but Sinner with better serve and return does have advantage. Its hard court players heaven now.

This is where the advantage Sinner stops.

Grass courts of Wimbledon may be suited both equally well. Alcaraz has his movement and groundstroke advantage while Sinner has his serve advantage though not as big as ATP finals. Heck, Serve can become disadvantage if the wind is blowing too hard.

Then come USO, Raz seem more suitable in new york as of today. He is far too powerful, and the surface does not support serve as much as AO. The surface keeps getting faster than 2010s but its not a fast court surface.

Finally RG, Raz has a lot of time to use his movement and serve is not a huge advantage at all. In fact, Alcaraz kicker can be very useful.

Now for Djokovic, although Sinner is only advantageous at AO/ATP finals, these are 2 of Nole's best tournaments. Winning both is hard because of Sinner.
While aside from Wimbledon, Raz is not really an issue as Djokovic historically struggled at USO/RG.

Sinner may decide how motivated Djokovic remains going forward. If Sinner beats him up bad many times, Djokovic may not play for long.

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nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Jannik. Jannik


He will be the end of the GOAT. There is no breaking through this guy. He has now won 4 of the last 5 matches vs Djokovic. Last 2 matches, Nole didn't even sniff a break point. No threat at all.

Sinner is younger, more powerful version of Nole himself. He knows what Sinner is going to do but unable to break through the sinnerwall.


All respects to Jannik. He is the reigning defending heavyweight champion after all.
 

GRASScaraz

Hall of Fame
Jannik. Jannik


He will be the end of the GOAT. There is no breaking through this guy. He has now won 4 of the last 5 matches vs Djokovic. Last 2 matches, Nole didn't even sniff a break point. No threat at all.

Sinner is younger, more powerful version of Nole himself. He knows what Sinner is going to do but unable to break through the sinnerwall.


All respects to Jannik. He is the reigning defending heavyweight champion after all.
Djokovic will beat him at RG
 
Us Nolefam should just be grateful that Sinner and Alcaraz didn't appear on the scene in 2018/2019, because otherwise our idol would most likely be sitting on 16 slams total.

I'm truly thankful that they weren't around and instead we had mugs like Berritini, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc to feast on
 
Us Nolefam should just be grateful that Sinner and Alcaraz didn't appear on the scene in 2018/2019, because otherwise our idol would most likely be sitting on 16 slams total.

I'm truly thankful that they weren't around and instead we had mugs like Berritini, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc to feast on
I agree. I’m glad they came along and took over just after Novak got the slam record ;)
 

InsuranceMan

Hall of Fame
Us Nolefam should just be grateful that Sinner and Alcaraz didn't appear on the scene in 2018/2019, because otherwise our idol would most likely be sitting on 16 slams total.

I'm truly thankful that they weren't around and instead we had mugs like Berritini, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc to feast on
Didn’t know you were a Nolefam
 

RF-18

Talk Tennis Guru
He just has to be physically 100% with no niggles wich are resurfacing once in a while and he has a good shot to take them on. Also has to build up some kind of form. He still plays great.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
He just has to be physically 100% with no niggles wich are resurfacing once in a while and he has a good shot to take them on. Also has to build up some kind of form. He still plays great.
Agreed. But let's not beat around the bush. Sinner is mentally also ready.

0 bp faced in 6 sets. Even in Australia nole saved 2 mp or it would be even worse defeat than Wimbledon. His game will suffocate nole. Especially at this age.
 

GrandSlam24

Semi-Pro
The fact that Djokovic people here are making propaganda for the doping king can no longer be surpassed in terms of ridiculousness. They haven't understood anything. First of all, Novak is a model athlete in terms of looks and physique. Then he is a social hero because of his behavior during the freely invented virus, the renamed flu. And then he is one of the most likeable figures in human history. Don't make a fool of yourselves as Djokovic fans. It's almost unbearable.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
Djokovic has lost 4 out of his last 5 matches to Sinner which is the worst losing streak he had to any player since Nadal (2012 Monte Carlo-2013 USO) when he lost 6 out of 7. However, he was able to turn that around against a player about the same age. Sinner is a young player entering his prime and I think will dominate for years to come. As Alcaraz and Sinner are often in the opposite side of the draw he won't have to always play them.

I think slam #25 as a stand-alone record (yes, I know the Court comparison due to draw sizes and Bo5 is silly) is what motives him. I think Wimbledon #8 would also mean a lot. The reason he won Gold was that in the slower speed sometimes shot selection and execution in key points is the difference. We saw the younger player at times over hit and make errors while playing meddy baseline distance on the second serve. Djokovic didn't just wait for errors he even took the ball early on key situations and went for winners. Wouldn't be shocked if Wimbledon 2025 is his last tournament as he regards it as the most important tournament.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic will beat him at RG
Bo3 on clay at the moment it looks like there are approx 7 players who have distanced themselves from the field - Djokovic, GOATsipas, Sinner, Musetti, Alcaraz, Ruud, Zverrv. These guys are way better than anyone else on Bo3 clay now imo. Djokovic is firmly entrenched in that group for sure. I’m not so sure about Bo5 now, though. Roland Garros would be highly unlikely imo.

His best chance at Bo5 now is Wimbledon. Very few players know how to play grass nowadays. Even though the second week it plays dry and high bouncing, many of the guys who can beat Novak can lose first week when the grass is green and slick. Novak can maximise his serve dominance and efficiency most at Wimbledon. If he can duck Sinncaraz he can still take Wimbledon.

Wimbledon is Novak’s last chance to best Court’s milestone imo, but it remains highly unlikely.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
Bo3 on clay at the moment it looks like there are approx 7 players who have distanced themselves from the field - Djokovic, GOATsipas, Sinner, Musetti, Alcaraz, Ruud, Zverrv. These guys are way better than anyone else on Bo3 clay now imo. Djokovic is firmly entrenched in that group for sure. I’m not so sure about Bo5 now, though. Roland Garros would be highly unlikely imo.

His best chance at Bo5 now is Wimbledon. Very few players know how to play grass nowadays. Even though the second week it plays dry and high bouncing, many of the guys who can beat Novak can lose first week when the grass is green and slick. Novak can maximise his serve dominance and efficiency most at Wimbledon. If he can duck Sinncaraz he can still take Wimbledon.

Wimbledon is Novak’s last chance to best Court’s milestone imo, but it remains highly unlikely.
In the Olympics they used Dunlop Tennis Balls instead of the Wilson X. The balls were closer to the Italian Open balls "Dunlop Fort Clay" which is like catnip for Djokovic who made 12 Rome Finals (won 6). The hotter weather and Bo3 instead of Bo5 did help in him winning the Gold. In fact, I predicted this a few months before the Olympics. I find Dunlop to be livelier and more durable than Wilson balls although not a major difference in bounce.

I can see him winning #25 in any of the first three slams if the draw and opportunity presents itself. However, with Sinner winning 4 out of the last 5 he may have more confidence in playing him in natural surfaces as Grass and Clay.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
In the Olympics they used Dunlop Tennis Balls instead of the Wilson X. The balls were closer to the Italian Open balls "Dunlop Fort Clay" which is like catnip for Djokovic who made 12 Rome Finals (won 6). The hotter weather and Bo3 instead of Bo5 did help in him winning the Gold. In fact, I predicted this a few months before the Olympics. I find Dunlop to be livelier and more durable than Wilson balls although not a major difference in bounce.

I can see him winning #25 in any of the first three slams if the draw and opportunity presents itself. However, with Sinner winning 4 out of the last 5 he may have more confidence in playing him in natural surfaces as Grass and Clay.
Yeah, good points. I hadn’t even factored in the balls, but you’re right. Djokovic loves those Dunlop. I don’t like them as much as Wilson. I feel like the rubberised base is firmer and doesn’t compress the same way Wilson and Slazenger’s balls do at point of contact.
 

AgassiSuperSlam11

Hall of Fame
Yeah, good points. I hadn’t even factored in the balls, but you’re right. Djokovic loves those Dunlop. I don’t like them as much as Wilson. I feel like the rubberised base is firmer and doesn’t compress the same way Wilson and Slazenger’s balls do at point of contact.
Variation of Dunlop balls have been traditionally used at AO, Rome, ATP Finals, and Dubai all tournaments he had major success. Although many players are complaining they want more uniformity of balls i think its unlikely due to sponsorship deals and the economics involved.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
Djokovic has lost 4 out of his last 5 matches to Sinner which is the worst losing streak he had to any player since Nadal (2012 Monte Carlo-2013 USO) when he lost 6 out of 7. However, he was able to turn that around against a player about the same age. Sinner is a young player entering his prime and I think will dominate for years to come. As Alcaraz and Sinner are often in the opposite side of the draw he won't have to always play them.

I think slam #25 as a stand-alone record (yes, I know the Court comparison due to draw sizes and Bo5 is silly) is what motives him. I think Wimbledon #8 would also mean a lot. The reason he won Gold was that in the slower speed sometimes shot selection and execution in key points is the difference. We saw the younger player at times over hit and make errors while playing meddy baseline distance on the second serve. Djokovic didn't just wait for errors he even took the ball early on key situations and went for winners. Wouldn't be shocked if Wimbledon 2025 is his last tournament as he regards it as the most important tournament.

:D
 

pasta

Professional
Djokovic is just fine ... waiting for his Lacoste extention (or not) ... at this point he is acting as a "spoiler", he might get lucky next 52 weeks (26 I would say, Wimbledon is cut off, maybe US Open) and get some or just prevent Sinner/Alcaraz dominance ... great to watch !

His last AO for sure, I feel bad for Fritz, DeMinaur, Shelton, Tiafoe ... those are the guys that have to beat Djokovic in quarters ... I hope they do well and get to Sinner/Alcaraz
 

pasta

Professional
I don't think that Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas or the likes will pop up as a constant contenders ... might and should win something but not ATG material ...

Enter Sinner/Alcras era, who will play the spoiler after Djokovic ?
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Variation of Dunlop balls have been traditionally used at AO, Rome, ATP Finals, and Dubai all tournaments he had major success. Although many players are complaining they want more uniformity of balls i think its unlikely due to sponsorship deals and the economics involved.
Agree. Ball standardisation can’t happen at the moment. Too impractical to think it will. I’m actually surprised it’s not worse like golf to be honest.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Sinner’s movement on hard courts is underrated. And of course, his ball-striking from both wings is on average the best I’ve seen this year. He hits with tremendous pace while also consistently hitting the ball deep into the corners. And he also hits wicked angles for winners as well.

Here are some of those highlands. Some of those shots, including a 105 mph forehand blast, are mind-blowing.

 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sinner’s movement on hard courts is underrated. And of course, his ball-striking from both wings is on average the best I’ve seen this year. He hits with tremendous pace while also consistently hitting the ball deep into the corners. And he also hits wicked angles for winners as well.

Here are some of those highlands. Some of those shots, including a 105 mph forehand blast, are mind-blowing.

For this whole Shanghai tournament sinner hit I/O forehands without missing a single one. and he is just whacking the ball at 84 mph average. It's insane.
 

pasta

Professional
Do you now how hard it is to change the direction of the ball ? you do ...
Djokovic can't do that anymore on consistent basis. Sinner just hits too hard for Djokovic.
 

Torben

Semi-Pro
Bo3 on clay at the moment it looks like there are approx 7 players who have distanced themselves from the field - Djokovic, GOATsipas, Sinner, Musetti, Alcaraz, Ruud, Zverrv. These guys are way better than anyone else on Bo3 clay now imo. Djokovic is firmly entrenched in that group for sure. I’m not so sure about Bo5 now, though. Roland Garros would be highly unlikely imo.

His best chance at Bo5 now is Wimbledon. Very few players know how to play grass nowadays. Even though the second week it plays dry and high bouncing, many of the guys who can beat Novak can lose first week when the grass is green and slick. Novak can maximise his serve dominance and efficiency most at Wimbledon. If he can duck Sinncaraz he can still take Wimbledon.

Wimbledon is Novak’s last chance to best Court’s milestone imo, but it remains highly unlikely.
That is pretty much as I see it until he retires.

Djokovic’s best chance of any kind of success in in best of three matches. I can’t see him winning a best of five against either of them. They are both going to be that little bit better next year after having another year on tour.

The end is near and injuries are seemingly part of his matches now. I can’t see him realistically winning another major unless something happens out of the ordinary. A ban for Sinner or a very lacklustre tournament for Alcaraz may increase his chances.

The biggest unknown is if Sinner will receive a ban. It seems likely at the moment but who knows what’s going to happen with him. One thing we all know is that Alcaraz will be there barring injury.
 

toby55555

Hall of Fame
Bo3 on clay at the moment it looks like there are approx 7 players who have distanced themselves from the field - Djokovic, GOATsipas, Sinner, Musetti, Alcaraz, Ruud, Zverrv. These guys are way better than anyone else on Bo3 clay now imo. Djokovic is firmly entrenched in that group for sure. I’m not so sure about Bo5 now, though. Roland Garros would be highly unlikely imo.

His best chance at Bo5 now is Wimbledon. Very few players know how to play grass nowadays. Even though the second week it plays dry and high bouncing, many of the guys who can beat Novak can lose first week when the grass is green and slick. Novak can maximise his serve dominance and efficiency most at Wimbledon. If he can duck Sinncaraz he can still take Wimbledon.

Wimbledon is Novak’s last chance to best Court’s milestone imo, but it remains highly unlikely.
Hard to believe he cares about a WTA record; that was one for Steffi or Serena to crack.
 
Us Nolefam should just be grateful that Sinner and Alcaraz didn't appear on the scene in 2018/2019, because otherwise our idol would most likely be sitting on 16 slams total.

I'm truly thankful that they weren't around and instead we had mugs like Berritini, Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc to feast on
You dont look like novak fan....
But if you go back 5 years rafa was there roger was there. Sinner and alcaraz had to go pass them to win slams.
 
Oh his stats are going to really take a hit in the head to head now as he is deep in decline but I would wager he only plays slams and small 250s next year and then retire so it won’t get too bad. Probably won’t play many if any masters. Probably let the other guys burn themselves out and then try and peak for slams for number 25 and then retire. He’s doing the “stick around to win one last slam Sampras” routine of 2002
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
That is pretty much as I see it until he retires.

Djokovic’s best chance of any kind of success in in best of three matches. I can’t see him winning a best of five against either of them. They are both going to be that little bit better next year after having another year on tour.

The end is near and injuries are seemingly part of his matches now. I can’t see him realistically winning another major unless something happens out of the ordinary. A ban for Sinner or a very lacklustre tournament for Alcaraz may increase his chances.

The biggest unknown is if Sinner will receive a ban. It seems likely at the moment but who knows what’s going to happen with him. One thing we all know is that Alcaraz will be there barring injury.
Djokovic beat raz in bo5
 
Problem is for novak, the next slam is 5 months away. He is going to be slowing down physically now every month really, it is inevitable. Alcaraz and Sinner , especially Alcaraz are going to keep improving and pushing each other. The FO i think is impossible for Djokovic and i doubt he has much chance in New York either.
Wimbledon may be his last stand. However he may have to skip the clay season to be a threat at Wimbledon in truth.
 

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic beat raz in bo5
I predicted that tbh.
If you see his HC record over the last 2,5 years, Djokovic at AO is probably the best player he's lost to on this surface, the diminuto dude is a mess on HCs.

Norrie, Paul × 2, FAA, Rune, Sinner × 2, Djokovic × 2, Dimitrov × 2, Safiullin, Zverev × 3, Medvedev, Monfils, Botic Van De Zandsculp, Machac, Humbert, Ruud.
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
I don't think Djokovic can beat Sinner in BO5. As for Alcaraz, the unusual situation where Djokovic was injured actually worked in Novak's favor. He couldn't move as much or fast, and was forced to play right behind the baseline and took the ball like half-volleys, and that actually was effective in nullifying the effects of heavy topspin of Alcaraz's. Alcaraz, being still not that experienced, failed to change his approach and tactics, hence he lost. However, I suspect the same will happen again. Alcaraz must have learned something from that loss and should similar situation arises in the future, I expect him to deal with it much better. It will be nearly impossible for Djokovic to beat Raz in BO5.
 

roysid

Legend
I think Djokovic with some luck will get the slam no. 25.

However he may also go the Serena way when she tried for 5 years for slam no. 24 and lost in 4 finals and 2 sf
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
Shot quality is still great for Novak and when the physical part of the equation is ideally minimized he still has a good chance.

It was shocking to hear the boos, more so in front of family. Still I hope it stings him to keep his motivation up. Recovery ain't getting easier with age...

You can't completely write Dokovic off, I agree. However, I think the chances of him beating Sincaraz is very slim in BO5.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
You can't completely write Dokovic off, I agree. However, I think the chances of him beating Sincaraz is very slim in BO5.

It is a boring truth that playing better tennis helps you to play better tennis. Novak fights like a lion but has not longer such a performance margin over most of the field as in 2022-23.

He has to struggle more which erodes his fitness and makes injuries in the decisive weeks more likely. All this makes it harder to be peak from the QF onwards.
 
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