nolefam_2024
Bionic Poster
Djokovic career is nearing finish line at age 37. What can keep him going forward is winning the biggest titles or at least be in the finals of them contesting. The biggest obstacles between him and slams is these two Sinner and Alcaraz. This is what I feel about both for coming 1/2 years.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz look to be straight up shotmaking contest. At least from Alcaraz side, you know what is coming. Alcaraz will try to use his speed and power advantage wholly vs Djokovic. Last year he faced Djokovic on Cincinnati while starting to go through a slump but it did not matter when he faced Djokovic. This guy can literally end the shots in 1 stroke. Very similar to Federer but even better because he will do it during rallies unlike Federer's serve or +1. I think Djokovic knows his chances will be better owning the baseline, being centrally based and go with more power to corners. If Alcaraz is very far back, go to the net. Raz is no Nadal in passing honestly, but he is still very good. If Raz is better, he is better. But Djokovic can still play his game.
Djokovic vs Sinner matches have mostly happened in fast courts where current Djokovic should be at advantage but he is not as of today. Sinner will stand very close to the baseline and while his returns in is not as good as Alcaraz, he will hit returns with more impact, getting to players backhand more, and more depth. Now I think Sinner will not be looking to end point quickly but playing with more power than Djokovic on average. He just has more power on serve, on forehands, backhands etc. Djokovic's chances increase when he is able to overpower Sinner especially on forehand side, Sinner backhand is too good vs declining Djokovic. Also Djokovic probably doesn't have easier time vs Sinner as well as Sinner is aggressive returner. His passing shot is somewhere near Alcaraz's level, maybe 1 notch behind.
What makes most difference is quality of serving. Sinner was historically a bad server. His first serve when landed was great but he used to hit 55% of them in. He has worked very hard on it. Alcaraz has always maximized his serving where in Wimbledon final, his average first serve speed was 122 mph , 4 mph faster than Djokovic but he will not become elite server unless he increases accuracy. Djokovic teed off his serves in Olympics a lot of times. So Sinner has absolute advantage in Serving. While Alcaraz has absolute advantage in rallies.
Now coming to slams and atp finals
Low bouncing ATP finals is more suited to Sinner than Alcaraz.
AO is somewhat more neutral to both but Sinner with better serve and return does have advantage. Its hard court players heaven now.
This is where the advantage Sinner stops.
Grass courts of Wimbledon may be suited both equally well. Alcaraz has his movement and groundstroke advantage while Sinner has his serve advantage though not as big as ATP finals. Heck, Serve can become disadvantage if the wind is blowing too hard.
Then come USO, Raz seem more suitable in new york as of today. He is far too powerful, and the surface does not support serve as much as AO. The surface keeps getting faster than 2010s but its not a fast court surface.
Finally RG, Raz has a lot of time to use his movement and serve is not a huge advantage at all. In fact, Alcaraz kicker can be very useful.
Now for Djokovic, although Sinner is only advantageous at AO/ATP finals, these are 2 of Nole's best tournaments. Winning both is hard because of Sinner.
While aside from Wimbledon, Raz is not really an issue as Djokovic historically struggled at USO/RG.
Sinner may decide how motivated Djokovic remains going forward. If Sinner beats him up bad many times, Djokovic may not play for long.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz look to be straight up shotmaking contest. At least from Alcaraz side, you know what is coming. Alcaraz will try to use his speed and power advantage wholly vs Djokovic. Last year he faced Djokovic on Cincinnati while starting to go through a slump but it did not matter when he faced Djokovic. This guy can literally end the shots in 1 stroke. Very similar to Federer but even better because he will do it during rallies unlike Federer's serve or +1. I think Djokovic knows his chances will be better owning the baseline, being centrally based and go with more power to corners. If Alcaraz is very far back, go to the net. Raz is no Nadal in passing honestly, but he is still very good. If Raz is better, he is better. But Djokovic can still play his game.
Djokovic vs Sinner matches have mostly happened in fast courts where current Djokovic should be at advantage but he is not as of today. Sinner will stand very close to the baseline and while his returns in is not as good as Alcaraz, he will hit returns with more impact, getting to players backhand more, and more depth. Now I think Sinner will not be looking to end point quickly but playing with more power than Djokovic on average. He just has more power on serve, on forehands, backhands etc. Djokovic's chances increase when he is able to overpower Sinner especially on forehand side, Sinner backhand is too good vs declining Djokovic. Also Djokovic probably doesn't have easier time vs Sinner as well as Sinner is aggressive returner. His passing shot is somewhere near Alcaraz's level, maybe 1 notch behind.
What makes most difference is quality of serving. Sinner was historically a bad server. His first serve when landed was great but he used to hit 55% of them in. He has worked very hard on it. Alcaraz has always maximized his serving where in Wimbledon final, his average first serve speed was 122 mph , 4 mph faster than Djokovic but he will not become elite server unless he increases accuracy. Djokovic teed off his serves in Olympics a lot of times. So Sinner has absolute advantage in Serving. While Alcaraz has absolute advantage in rallies.
Now coming to slams and atp finals
Low bouncing ATP finals is more suited to Sinner than Alcaraz.
AO is somewhat more neutral to both but Sinner with better serve and return does have advantage. Its hard court players heaven now.
This is where the advantage Sinner stops.
Grass courts of Wimbledon may be suited both equally well. Alcaraz has his movement and groundstroke advantage while Sinner has his serve advantage though not as big as ATP finals. Heck, Serve can become disadvantage if the wind is blowing too hard.
Then come USO, Raz seem more suitable in new york as of today. He is far too powerful, and the surface does not support serve as much as AO. The surface keeps getting faster than 2010s but its not a fast court surface.
Finally RG, Raz has a lot of time to use his movement and serve is not a huge advantage at all. In fact, Alcaraz kicker can be very useful.
Now for Djokovic, although Sinner is only advantageous at AO/ATP finals, these are 2 of Nole's best tournaments. Winning both is hard because of Sinner.
While aside from Wimbledon, Raz is not really an issue as Djokovic historically struggled at USO/RG.
Sinner may decide how motivated Djokovic remains going forward. If Sinner beats him up bad many times, Djokovic may not play for long.
