Djokovic has declined but how much exactly

[Tano]

Novak’s stamina isn’t what it once was

It was pretty obvious for a while but he was favored by the USTA with an easy path to the final last year edition.

 

[Torben]

Clearly...Djokovic did not have prepare well after Olympics. Service is terrible.... Struggling physically.....

He seemed just fine at the Olympics.

Tell me what exactly happened to him?

 

[Open Stance]

In his presser he said he’s drained physically and mentally. Out of gas. Didn’t feel right since he arrived in NYC. Worst he’s ever served which really hurt him on the quick surface.

 

[Torben]

In his presser he said he’s drained physically and mentally. Out of gas. Didn’t feel right since he arrived in NYC. Worst he’s ever served which really hurt him on the quick surface.

That’s interesting because last year he won both Cincinnati and the US Open. The time frame is very similar in terms of when Cincinnati and the Olympics were played. He won Cincinnati leading up to the 2023 US Open and this year it was the Olympics leading up to the US Open.

I wonder what really changed for him? He is supposed to be one of the greatest ever at tournament preparation. It’s something a player has learned and honed from the beginning of their careers.

He is going to be dejected after any loss. All players look tattered after loses. He had the stuffing knocked out of him tonight.

 

[socallefty]

If he misses Cinci, he is going to be rusty just like at the USO in 2021. He is going to lose a lot of opening sets and be more tired going to the semis/finals if he makes it that far just like in 2021. The weather will be hot/humid and he can’t afford to play without preparation like he does at Wimbledon, lose more sets and be drained in the second week. I felt that missing Cinci was a mistake in 2021 that cost him the CYGS and he should not repeat that again.

He may be lacking motivation after achieving his biggest goal for the year. He may be rusty after not playing for a month just like in 2021. Different ways to look at it.

He was rusty from not playing for a month just like in 2021 before the USO. I called it a few weeks ago that he was making the same mistake as in 2021. Looked even worse this time as he is four years older. 1st serve and aggressive FH was missing all week - in fact it is his worst serving % at a Slam for his entire career. Movement was terrible in the first match and he slowly improved that. It made me ask if he really did not practice at all for a month while watching him - must have been some epic parties after the Olympic win.

 

[Third Serve]

The serve improvement is overrated. Peaked in 2015 and has been largely up and down since then. For every ATP Finals 2023 you have a dud like Wimbledon 2023.

 

[Racquet_smash]

Meh, don't get this "old Djokovic serve" stuff. He always had one of the best serves in the top 20.

 

[InsideOut900]

The serve improvement is overrated. Peaked in 2015 and has been largely up and down since then. For every ATP Finals 2023 you have a dud like Wimbledon 2023.

Well, he still has tournaments where he serves at 65-70% consistently with low DFs % and his 1st serve is quite damaging. That's only something he developed under Goran.

His skill cap on serve is higher, but so is his skill floor, especially on his 2nd serve, which can get quite terrible.

 

[ghostofMecir]

He was missing by just a little bit on the floor hand tonight and of course, the double fault continue from the last match. But for Djokovic to win, everything has to be working because he just doesn’t have the shotmaking talent to overcome some of the problems Alexi was presenting. One good example of this is the backhand smash which looked comically bad (two of them).

 

[Oceans II]

Nole's level is still there and is the fav at AO25. This year is mainly down to lack of motivation from a successful 2023 and Olympics, and injury.

 

[Tano]

Nole's level is still there and is the fav at AO25.

This year is mainly down to lack of motivation from a successful 2023 and Olympics, and injury.

In the best of five sets, he is no longer one of them, and even less so on a surface like hard court, where there is still a good quality of competition.

 

[Jonas78]

Tennis abstract gives very good charting of matches for current players. Based on last 52 weeks and comparing it to career, we can see if the player's game is declining now or getting better. For older guys, obviously it will not improve but certain areas of game can improve.

Tennis Abstract: Match Charting Project: Men's Rally Leaders: Last 52

Tennis Abstract: Match Charting Project: Men's Rally Leaders: Career

Djokovic match rally length average changed from 4.7 for career to 4.6. This means he is trying to end the point quicker. 0.1 difference may not feel much but its a lot over many matches. Its around 2.5% more. We can see that he is playing 2.5% quicker than in the past. His rally aggression, that is the ability to finish points has gone up from -50 to -48 which is not that high a jump. For aggressive players it is near 0 or positive in modern game. Alcaraz is -2, Medvedev is -103 which shows he wants to extend the points. While Shelton is +11.
So Djokovic is not bailing out of the points as much more than before.

Now there can be reasons for this. He is using dropshot more now, from 1.6% to 2%. And dropshot is very dangerous shot. Djokovic outright wins only 29% of points from it, but he may be able to win more than 50% of pts from dropshot. Still this is not a big difference maker.

What has changed a lot is S&V frequency and net frequency.
Djokovic who used to go to S&V 2.2 % of the times has now increased it to 6.5%. This is as good as Alcaraz's S&V frequency. He has also ended more pts at the net from 11% to 14%. While increasing the net presence, he has slightly improved % pts won at the net as well so overall its net benefit.

Coming to the serve, Djokovic has not served better than he does today. We can forget about the ace count and DF count. Serve impact is to measure how much the serve influences points won even when the return comes back. The formula used here reflects the average men’s player in the 2010s: unreturned serves, plus 50% of first-serve points won on the server’s second shot, plus 40% of first-serve points won on the server’s third shot, plus 20% of first-serve points won on the server’s fourth shot, all divided by the number of serve points.
Djokovic has improved serve impact from 33.9% to 38%. He is winning 38% of pts from the serve alone in service game. Even when serve comes back, he is winning 62% of pts compared to 59% for his career.

Now the return is one area where we will possibly see any chink in his armour.
Djokovic is returning 70.7% of pts today compared to 72.2% through entire career. Now this is a big drop. Even if though he is winning 52.7% of pts on return today compared to 52.5% in the past, its still worse by around 2%. This has resulted in him creating less number of breaks than in the past. He is hitting more aggressive winners hitting only 3.1% of returns as slices compared to 8.7% in the past. So he is going for more winners, possibly trying to get early advantage like Federer in his old age.

Finally groundstrokes. This is just an area where Djokovic has gone up a level. He possibly understood that he is like a wall even if he is playing power baseline tennis, and has amped up aggression.
Djokovic forehand potency and backhand potency both have improved.

Djokovic forehand potency has gone from 12.1 to 13.1 while backhand potency has gone from 4.2 to 6.3. This means he is winning more pts on both sides topspin than before. Although backhand slice % has gone from 14.1 to 16.3. This 2% pts are mostly going to have -1 potency so his backhand potency has been slightly increased and not by 2 pts.

So all in all.
On serve:
Winning more free pts on first as well as second serve and winning more pts overall even if serve comes back.

On return:
Only area where there is drop. Returning less points back but this is combined with modest return aggression increase.

On groundstroke :
Forehand has shown improvement (Over career so including bad times like 2005-10 as well)
Backhand show modest improvement

On net play :
Showed drastic improvement to end the points more at the net. Especially on his own serve. Djokovic is winning more than 70% of pts on S&V approaches and he is going to continue increasing this. This is only area after server where he has shown huge increase.

Slices:
Increased frequency modestly. He is not going to slice after every second backhand stroke even.

Dropshot:
Increased a lot. This is risky shot and Djokovic is planning to finish points either way (win or lose) without allowing opponent to extend the points.

Changing his game, like Federer had to do even at a younger age.

Olympics is BO3, he showed he still can play on a very high level. I guess the big questions the next years (in BO5) are motivation, stamina and if he can stay out of injuries.

 

[FiReFTW]

This is such a silly stat, he played against Nadal and Federer his whole career, a ton of matches... now they are both gone.

Obviously his stats will be slightly better against other players lol, it doesn't mean he is better now.

 

[NatF]

Is that your answer for everything? Seems so easy to come to that conclusion. The field ain't worse, there are lots of great players and depth. You are just too blind to see it or moreover refuse to acknowledge it.

Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, Zverev as tier 1 is such easy opponents that the stats gets better thanks to that lol.

Easier than before yes, quite obviously lol.

 

[ppma]

He seemed just fine at the Olympics.

Tell me what exactly happened to him?

Destroyed in AO, WO in RG, cakedraw in W to be crushed in the final, out in the USO R3 by a top15 level player.
His mind in 2024 has been all about the Olympics where he played the best match i've seen from him for many years.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Tennis abstract gives very good charting of matches for current players. Based on last 52 weeks and comparing it to career, we can see if the player's game is declining now or getting better. For older guys, obviously it will not improve but certain areas of game can improve.

Tennis Abstract: Match Charting Project: Men's Rally Leaders: Last 52

Tennis Abstract: Match Charting Project: Men's Rally Leaders: Career

Djokovic match rally length average changed from 4.7 for career to 4.6. This means he is trying to end the point quicker. 0.1 difference may not feel much but its a lot over many matches. Its around 2.5% more. We can see that he is playing 2.5% quicker than in the past. His rally aggression, that is the ability to finish points has gone up from -50 to -48 which is not that high a jump. For aggressive players it is near 0 or positive in modern game. Alcaraz is -2, Medvedev is -103 which shows he wants to extend the points. While Shelton is +11.
So Djokovic is not bailing out of the points as much more than before.

Now there can be reasons for this. He is using dropshot more now, from 1.6% to 2%. And dropshot is very dangerous shot. Djokovic outright wins only 29% of points from it, but he may be able to win more than 50% of pts from dropshot. Still this is not a big difference maker.

What has changed a lot is S&V frequency and net frequency.
Djokovic who used to go to S&V 2.2 % of the times has now increased it to 6.5%. This is as good as Alcaraz's S&V frequency. He has also ended more pts at the net from 11% to 14%. While increasing the net presence, he has slightly improved % pts won at the net as well so overall its net benefit.

Coming to the serve, Djokovic has not served better than he does today. We can forget about the ace count and DF count. Serve impact is to measure how much the serve influences points won even when the return comes back. The formula used here reflects the average men’s player in the 2010s: unreturned serves, plus 50% of first-serve points won on the server’s second shot, plus 40% of first-serve points won on the server’s third shot, plus 20% of first-serve points won on the server’s fourth shot, all divided by the number of serve points.
Djokovic has improved serve impact from 33.9% to 38%. He is winning 38% of pts from the serve alone in service game. Even when serve comes back, he is winning 62% of pts compared to 59% for his career.

Now the return is one area where we will possibly see any chink in his armour.
Djokovic is returning 70.7% of pts today compared to 72.2% through entire career. Now this is a big drop. Even if though he is winning 52.7% of pts on return today compared to 52.5% in the past, its still worse by around 2%. This has resulted in him creating less number of breaks than in the past. He is hitting more aggressive winners hitting only 3.1% of returns as slices compared to 8.7% in the past. So he is going for more winners, possibly trying to get early advantage like Federer in his old age.

Finally groundstrokes. This is just an area where Djokovic has gone up a level. He possibly understood that he is like a wall even if he is playing power baseline tennis, and has amped up aggression.
Djokovic forehand potency and backhand potency both have improved.

Djokovic forehand potency has gone from 12.1 to 13.1 while backhand potency has gone from 4.2 to 6.3. This means he is winning more pts on both sides topspin than before. Although backhand slice % has gone from 14.1 to 16.3. This 2% pts are mostly going to have -1 potency so his backhand potency has been slightly increased and not by 2 pts.

So all in all.
On serve:
Winning more free pts on first as well as second serve and winning more pts overall even if serve comes back.

On return:
Only area where there is drop. Returning less points back but this is combined with modest return aggression increase.

On groundstroke :
Forehand has shown improvement (Over career so including bad times like 2005-10 as well)
Backhand show modest improvement

On net play :
Showed drastic improvement to end the points more at the net. Especially on his own serve. Djokovic is winning more than 70% of pts on S&V approaches and he is going to continue increasing this. This is only area after server where he has shown huge increase.

Slices:
Increased frequency modestly. He is not going to slice after every second backhand stroke even.

Dropshot:
Increased a lot. This is risky shot and Djokovic is planning to finish points either way (win or lose) without allowing opponent to extend the points.

Not enough attention to his return game falling off a cliff. He hasn’t even hit 29% since 2021. He used to be in the 32-35% range, and that’s with playing more matches against stronger competition.

2011 is just mind-blowing…40.5% RGW until the end of the USO…top top stuff…his return game peak by many miles.

 

[TheFifthSet]

The serve improvement is overrated. Peaked in 2015 and has been largely up and down since then. For every ATP Finals 2023 you have a dud like Wimbledon 2023.

Second serve in particular peaked from mid-2015 to early 2016. First serve probably peaked in the 2020’s, but the difference is definitely overstated.

 

[chjtennis]

He is in similar condition as Federer was in 2019. I think we may be watching final moments of his career. Same knee problem Fed had, and still can produce good tennis occasionally but not consistently.

 

[jl809]

Djoker fell off a lot in Bo5 after 2021, but it was hard to see because he almost never played anyone who forced him to be locked in for 4+ sets

At RG 22 he was gassed vs Nadal, at RG 23 Raz cramped and bailed just as he’d started laying siege to Djoker’s serve. At Wimby 22 + 23, Djoker had big dips for 1.5 sets vs Sinneraz… difference in 2023 was his opponent played 4 sets of great tennis, not 3, including a really strong 5th set.

At USO 23 Meddy took Djoker’s legs but couldn’t capitalise and gave up after the 2nd set (by his own admission)

Now it’s got even worse in 2024 and finally it’s evident for all to see - helped by Sinneraz getting even better, so he got blown away in the slam matches against them. If they play like they did at AO 24 and Wim 24, he is never beating them in Bo5 again. His incredible miracle at the Olympics this year required it to be Bo3

The only way he can win slams now is exactly how he did at AO 23 and USO 23 - a nice weak draw where he can have dips against mid tier opponents like Djere and get away with it, then hope it’s Medvedev, Tsitsipas or Zverev in the final

What last night showed though is that even now the wins against the mid tier guys are not guaranteed. His aura has gone for now

 

[jl809]

He is in similar condition as Federer was in 2019. I think we may be watching final moments of his career. Same knee problem Fed had, and still can produce good tennis occasionally but not consistently.

One the one hand I think he’ll hang around longer than Fed did…

…but on the other, he clearly will never be able to produce a great SF + marathon F performance like 37 y.o. Fed did at Wimbledon 2019, so he’s more reliant on draws and form of others

 

[KingCarlitos]

This was meant to be Djokovic’s tournament, Alcaraz crashed out, the only person who could truly challenge a well playing Djokovic and then Novak can’t Capitalise on the opportunity. After missing such a big opportunity I doubt Novak wins another.

Djokovic is just getting older and frailer while Sincaraz just getting closer to their prime.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

He’s done. Should join Nadal in Finland!

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

This was meant to be Djokovic’s tournament, Alcaraz crashed out, the only person who could truly challenge a well playing Djokovic and then Novak can’t Capitalise on the opportunity. After missing such a big opportunity I doubt Novak wins another.

Djokovic is just getting older and frailer while Sincaraz just getting closer to their prime.

Djokovic is finished. This is now great opportunities for Sinner, Zverev and Meddy. All 3 have great chances. Rublev May break his quarter final curse and hope he does.

 

[Zardoz7/12]

Djokovic looks like he's won all there is to win and has no motivation left.

His defeat today didn't surprise me, he's looked terrible all year barring the Olympics (The only title he wanted).

It's not hyperbole to suggest that the chances of Djokovic winning another slam are slim.

 

[nolefam_2024]

He is about to lose this match.

That doesn't mean much. 1 match doesn't tell a lot. We can see by end of the year so we will have entire years worth of data.

 

[nolefam_2024]

This was meant to be Djokovic’s tournament, Alcaraz crashed out, the only person who could truly challenge a well playing Djokovic and then Novak can’t Capitalise on the opportunity. After missing such a big opportunity I doubt Novak wins another.

Djokovic is just getting older and frailer while Sincaraz just getting closer to their prime.

That is obvious. He is getting older.

 

[leodevlin]

By one knee surgery exactly

 

[big ted]

djokovic doesn’t look very svelte anymore he’s starting to look like adam sandler

 

[marc45]

suspect we're getting a long break now?

has he said anything about the fall schedule?

have to believe the only thought he has in his head is how do I manage to peak for AO 25

 

[big ted]

suspect we're getting a long break now?

has he said anything about the fall schedule?

have to believe the only thought he has in his head is how do I manage to peak for AO 25

or the 6 kings exhibition

 

[nolefam_2024]

suspect we're getting a long break now?

has he said anything about the fall schedule?

have to believe the only thought he has in his head is how do I manage to peak for AO 25

He will be in Shanghai after 2018?

 

[Tano]

He’s done. Should join Nadal in Finland!

We should all visit Finland one day and see the country of a thousand lakes.

 

[Unseeded Player]

One the one hand I think he’ll hang around longer than Fed did…

…but on the other, he clearly will never be able to produce a great SF + marathon F performance like 37 y.o. Fed did at Wimbledon 2019, so he’s more reliant on draws and form of others

Nah, I think next year will be his last. He won't stay there for sponsorship contracts and media hype so that some guys like Hurkacz can create a name on him.

Fed needed to skip entire clay season to do that.

 

[ghostofMecir]

His FH depth and power in neutral rallies was actually really good vs. Popy but he couldnt move as well (same as all year) and he knows this so went for more and he missed by a little. The match point is a microcosm of this—Djoko was semi-controlling the point with the FH and then just slightly missed

 

[StefanosRespecter]

That doesn't mean much. 1 match doesn't tell a lot. We can see by end of the year so we will have entire years worth of data.

I know, but i means he is elimninated from a major, so it does mean alot for at least the next week.

 

[TMF]

Bingo! Novak when he was losing to Fed 2007-2010 would destroy modern Novak.

37 years old post surgery Nole was the favorite heading into this year US Open. LOL

Djokovic in 2007 wouldn't have lost to Popyrin yesterday

 

[a10best]

Very good details. What I notice lately is:
- Not as defensive as he used to be getting to balls and lobbing creating opponent UEs'.
- his sliding backhand and forehand "on the run" are not as good as the last year. ... knee?
Is there specific data or stats to back this up?
His sliding BH against Popyrin last night were going deep or wide on big points.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Great thread, have to take my time.

Very good details. What I notice lately is:
- Not as defensive as he used to be getting to balls and lobbing creating opponent UEs'.
- his sliding backhand and forehand "on the run" are not as good as the last year. ... knee?
Is there specific data or stats to back this up?
His sliding BH against Popyrin last night were going deep or wide on big points.

Agree. It is very simplistic but running and sliding shots require 'more' - more legs and more coordination. Nole had mastered those defensive shots by combining at his best efficient, consistent and compact shots with supreme fitness and elite coordination.

Slices seem more forced than tactical decisions on his part.

Some of his first strike tennis is still great but when he lacks the fuel and his serve+ upsets are much more likely. Alcaraz had the great advantage over his two strongest rival in pure athletic performance, more so in majors which must have trouble them.

 

[DIMI_D]

Ao 25 last slam he will enter as bookies fav

 

[Third Serve]

Well, he still has tournaments where he serves at 65-70% consistently with low DFs % and his 1st serve is quite damaging. That's only something he developed under Goran.

His skill cap on serve is higher, but so is his skill floor, especially on his 2nd serve, which can get quite terrible.

I think his first serve has gotten a little better, but I think his second serve has declined by an even greater extent.

And in general I feel like he’s just less consistent. It is very good when it’s on though.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Great thread, have to take my time.



Agree. It is very simplistic but running and sliding shots require 'more' - more legs and more coordination. Nole had mastered those defensive shots by combining at his best efficient, consistent and compact shots with supreme fitness and elite coordination.

Slices seem more forced than tactical decisions on his part.

Some of his first strike tennis is still great but when he lacks the fuel and his serve+ upsets are much more likely. Alcaraz had the great advantage over his two strongest rival in pure athletic performance, more so in majors which must have trouble them.

His tendency to not extend points by hitting dropshots is acceptable with time. If not, he would have broken at 3-3 in first vs Popyrin.

And slices now are more defensive ones than own decision.

Serve has become far more reliant on starting the point on attack. Fh slice serve is probably best on the tour and gives advantage vs attackers but the kicker to backhand has diminished and had been since elbow surgery. Since going more for accuracy than raw speed, he is more dependent on wind as well.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

Its remarkable that Djokovic is allowed to play his own game even at the age of 37 which is a testament to his fitness. He is slightly more aggressive in all areas but is winning the points still with regular consistent baseline tennis.

If Alcaraz and Sinner had not risen up, he would most likely be winning 4/4 slams in 2022 to 24. The next gen will not be able to stop him even with declined form. But even with Alcaraz and Sinner arrival, Djokovic has ability to win more pts because he is still better than these two at 37. What may give out is stamina but even that we need to see. Last time in RG Djokovic played two 2 five battles and was the fresher in both of the matches.

Djokovic isn't better than alcaraz and Sinner today

 

[Rovesciarete]

Serve has become far more reliant on starting the point on attack. Fh slice serve is probably best on the tour and gives advantage vs attackers but the kicker to backhand has diminished and had been since elbow surgery. Since going more for accuracy than raw speed, he is more dependent on wind as well.

Actually the wind question is something which I didn't think about much, but it makes sense. Every variable shifts the benefit-risk margin and in hindsight it was one of the biggest differences between the crushing performance in Turin and the clear defeat in Melbourne.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Actually the wind question is something which I didn't think about much, but it makes sense. Every variable shifts the benefit-risk margin and in hindsight it was one of the biggest differences between the crushing performance in Turin and the clear defeat in Melbourne.

Maybe
I am not sure

I think Melbourne nole played worst match of his life at least post 2010. Sinner is susceptible to wind too. Wimby 2023, we saw clear difference between nole and alcaraz.

 

[gamelovergold]

At highest level of play even 01 % decline is found out. Novak game is going downhill and 2025 is his last roll of dice. Any of the four slam will do. #25 should come in 2025 . He will not be there in 26 .Nadal will say good bye in FO 25 and with nadal retiring novak will lose whatever motivation he has right know.
If by miracle Nadal wins FO 25 then you can gurantee novak playing .

 

[Winner Sinner]

Let's put it this way, if in 2023 his level was still 95 in this 2024 it does not exceed 70. The decline after one season was much more drastic and accentuated than it was between the Djokovic peak with the version we saw up to 2023. For me the Wimbledon final has a big asterisk due to its less than ideal approach, but this season there is also the Melbourne semi-final lost in an embarrassing way against Sinner. I had left the matchup between Turin and Malaga regardless of the various outcomes with the belief that between Djokovic and Sinner there was still a bit of margin in favor of the Serbian (in each of those matches at the end of 2023 I never had the feeling at any time that Sinner that specific day was superior) and I found him again in Melbourne where Sinner "granted" him a set just out of "pity". It literally annihilated him. This is why I say that at the Olympics with Sinner present, Nole would hardly have been able to realize his dream if the scoreboard had forced him to challenge Sinner and Alcaraz in succession. In general, looking at some images of Djokovic 2023 compared to those of this season, you can clearly see how he has lost a lot of speed and fluidity in his movements. It reminds me a little of the drastic athletic decline LeBron had between his last year with the Cavs and his first with the Lakers. It's clear that we always talk about super athletes in their own way but who have entered more into the standard of normality.

 

[nolefam_2024]

44% of unreturned serves for Sinner vs Djokovic today. He faced 0 break points.

The return stat where Djokovic is declining is now becoming an issue. He isn't even able to create break points anymore.

 

[pasta]

When ball is coming fast at you - you have to be fast - no !?

If you are not fast because your age/nature limits you - you use experience ... but when other guys get experience (GS wins, head to head wins) then you say "OK"

 

[nolefam_2024]

During last year it has become abundantly clear that Djokovic has lost a step in rallies and also in returns. Especially his response time on first serves has gone down a lot.

What is yet to be seen is can he handle bo5 4 hr matches anymore. Last year he was very unprepared and it showed in longer matches. If Djokovic has to stay relevant, he needs to push the stamina up if he can. The forehand and serve have reached max limit and will only decline.

 

[big ted]

i think alot of his decline is trying to stay motivated after winning all the records
he proved to me he can still play when he won the olympics.
but does he have the same burning desire to win an AO for the 11th time when hes already the greatest?
hes just beating his own records by now and thats not giving him enough drive..
maybe the murray thing is what he needs!