Djokovic is in a slow decline, but his fans don't acknowledge it yet
- Thread starter Gary Duane
- Start date
Lew II
G.O.A.T.
I think he improved his shotmaking (better serve, volleys, etc.) and mental approach. I don't think he's slower, but he may not have the same recovery between matches he used to have when he was younger. Anyway the rest day in Slams helps for that (may be one of the reasons Big3 are still so successful at Slams).
The field is stronger now, but the top guys used to be better some years ago. Federer and Murray were better than Thiem and Medvedev.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
Federer in 2011 and 2015 was only kept from #1 because both years Novak was absolutely on fire. Novak has no one threatening him now on his best surface, not in slams, not when it counts. We don't know what a great young player could do against him because there is no such player. Period.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
It's less, on hard. Fed's last strong returning year on hard was in 2015, now more than 5 years ago. Nadal has never been on the same level on hard, so whatever his decline is seems less noticeable and much harder to track.
canta_Brian
Hall of Fame
Nobody moves better than him? Did you not see the Raonic match?
junior74
Bionic Poster
Djokovic has never, not once, faced a young player with the potensial of a Big3. The other two have. Federer had two. This is the biggest advantage for Djokovic; he has basically been able to play more or less the same tennis all along, with minor changes.
If a 25 year old version of Federer/ Nadal/ Djokovic was on tour 2016-2021, my money would be on that player.
Crazy Finn
Hall of Fame
I agree with everything except the field being stronger. Novak is older, but his fellow Big 3 have obviously also aged, and he seems to be holding off declining (or declining less, depending on your point of view) than the other 2. Other than that, Stan and Murray have dropped off or retired and then returned post injury to a - so far - lesser form. They've been replaced in the top 10 with young guys with theoretical potential. However, after 3-4 years, it's still theoretical, they've mostly shown they can't beat the Big 3 in slams, especially on their requisite favorite surface. That's been mostly true for a decade of course, regardless of if it's Raonic and Berdych or Zverev, Medvedev, or Tsitsipas - but at least Murray and Stan defeated Fed, Rafa, and Novak from time to time in slams. They've got 6 slams between them, their successors have zero.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Against the field. Yes, 2015 Djokovic was much better than anyone today, but IMO the current top-10 today in general is better than the top-10 in 2015.
Dropbox - Error - Simplify your life
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Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
You are funny. The only thing age is doing to Joker is giving him occasional physical problems. If his knees hold up, he will probably pass both roger and rafa. When he is on, like at the AO, no one can touch him. No one. Defense. Offense. Serve. Serve returns. Touch shots. Who is better? Tell me.
Of course, any 34 year old athlete has to decline physically somewhat! The first question is how strong is the opposition. Right now, it's not looking too tough. Federer's time to challenge Nole anywhere is probably over. Djokovic is expected to beat Nadal anywhere off clay. The newcomers pose more challenge to Federer and Nadal than to Djokovic (ala Tsisipas bouncing Nadal in QF).
The 2nd question is how he's going to compensate for physical decline. The answer is experience and mental toughness. Djokovic is much mentally tougher than Federer and Nadal, so that helps him there!
Before Tom Brady, no QB over 40 had won the Super Bowl. It was really mental acumen, tenacity and toughness that did for him!
The 2nd question is how he's going to compensate for physical decline. The answer is experience and mental toughness. Djokovic is much mentally tougher than Federer and Nadal, so that helps him there!
Before Tom Brady, no QB over 40 had won the Super Bowl. It was really mental acumen, tenacity and toughness that did for him!
D
Deleted member 748597
Guest
He faced an anomaly such as the old Stan Wawrinka. Peak Stan was ATG level.
Nadal and Djokovic are within 1 year of each other! Wow, what an incredibly big difference!
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
If you had bothered to read everything I wrote you would have seen that I said nothing about anyone touching him. The question is when it will happen in the future - unless you think he is immortal and will go on playing at this peak for another 10 years. As for if he will pass the others, it's very likely.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Exactly. No one is better because there is no one.
Linelicker
Rookie
True that. But Rafa broke through a lot earlier. If you twist it like that, you can almost say Federer and Nadal are the ones who had same competition. Maiden slams in 2003 and 2005. Novak 2008.
If Rafa didn't appear, Roger would have two, maybe three CYGSs - and would likely have been the eternal GOAT.
RelentlessAttack
Hall of Fame
Not only that, Novak wasn’t able to break through the Fedal wall until 6 years after Nadal’s rise to the top and 8 years after Federer’s, despite the AO08 win. Nadal exited his prime after 2013, and >50% of Djokovic’s resume was built after that.
Because Nadal was precocious, they’re not exactly the same tennis generation despite being a year apart. Nadal’s athletic prime (05-13) overlapped with Federer’s peak/prime more than it did with Djokovic.
With Djokovic it’s hard to define his prime because he had some prime level stretches in 07-08 but then also turned in a very lacklustre 09-10, but certainly his peak was 11-16,
junior74
Bionic Poster
Agree. But it was a player Novak knew well and had owned completely until Stan and Normann figured out some mental issues.
No matter how we twist it, Federer has had two guys with 38 slams and counting between them coming from behind in his ongoing career.
Losing to PCB?
Thousand times Novak lost sets to journeyman in USO before he comes and beats them.
What happened with PCB in French Open 2020 was e exactly what was going to happen in USOpen..
smalahove
Hall of Fame
He is serving to the FH, because most of his opponents have a stronger BH (return) than FH (return).
Did you read the blog post on braingametennis?
First of all, the FH is the better groundstroke for all players except perhaps Paire.
Second, this isn't anywhere near obvious even if BH returns were stronger than FH returns. Look at the second serve numbers: just over 50% of his second serves are directed to the opponent's FH on the deuce side. That's mindblowing to me at least, given the big FHs on the list below.
1st Serves Deuce Court (Forehand return out wide)
2nd Serves Serves Deuce Court (Forehand return out wide)
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Did you read the blog post on braingametennis?
First of all, the FH is the better groundstroke for all players except perhaps Paire.
Second, this isn't anywhere near obvious even if BH returns were stronger than FH returns. Look at the second serve numbers: just over 50% of his second serves are directed to the opponent's FH on the deuce side. That's mindblowing to me at least, given the big FHs on the list below.
1st Serves Deuce Court (Forehand return out wide)
2nd Serves Serves Deuce Court (Forehand return out wide)
I don't think that Medvedev and Zverev's better groundstroke shot is their FH, no.
From the rest Chardy, Raonic and Fritz are about the same strength on both sides and only Tiafoe is an outlier for his FH being decisively stronger, but he is not a great returner. Karatsev I would leave without a comment, as he is such an anomaly and such an enigma that it is impossible to draw any conclusion about him.
All of the aforementioned players are tall guys with 2HBHs = great reach plus a more stable shot on the return = FH is easily the more susceptible to errors side than the BH.
Beckerserve
Legend
We dont know that though do we. Maybe Djokovic was not feeling good. All we know was he was struggling.
Mr.Lob
G.O.A.T.
Maybe Djock was in a slow decline, but he looked like he reversed it in this year's A.O. Reversed the aging process. Vampirism maybe. But, physically stronger. Better conditioning and cardio. The laser guided penetrating ground strokes. The depth. The confidence. Maybe the throat chop to the linesperson in the U.S Open will end up benefiting Djokovic in his slam count. He's more motivated and driven from the backlash, the embarrassment, and rightfully so.
DIMI_D
Hall of Fame
All of the big 3 are in decline, though their level is still good enough to get them the slams.
2017 - 2021 Nadal is .40% of slams entered won
Novak from 2018-2021 is 0.50% and higher if we take away AO 18 and FO 18
question is how how much of a decline will happen to this over the next 2-3 yrs And even a 25-30% decline won’t be enough to prevent slam wins. Of course this doesn’t account for someone raising their level and totally dominating but that’s yet to be seen and also how dramatic a decline can happen to tip these guys into not wining anymore. I do believe the next gen is catching up and we will see less dominance in the coming yrs as Father Time is undefeated yet it will probably be gradual and not dramatic barring injury of course.
2017 - 2021 Nadal is .40% of slams entered won
Novak from 2018-2021 is 0.50% and higher if we take away AO 18 and FO 18
question is how how much of a decline will happen to this over the next 2-3 yrs And even a 25-30% decline won’t be enough to prevent slam wins. Of course this doesn’t account for someone raising their level and totally dominating but that’s yet to be seen and also how dramatic a decline can happen to tip these guys into not wining anymore. I do believe the next gen is catching up and we will see less dominance in the coming yrs as Father Time is undefeated yet it will probably be gradual and not dramatic barring injury of course.
smalahove
Hall of Fame
I don't think that Medvedev and Zverev's better groundstroke shot is their FH, no.
From the rest Chardy, Raonic and Fritz are about the same strength on both sides and only Tiafoe is an outlier for his FH being decisively stronger, but he is not a great returner. Karatsev I would leave without a comment, as he is such an anomaly and such an enigma that it is impossible to draw any conclusion about him.
All of the aforementioned players are tall guys with 2HBHs = great reach plus a more stable shot on the return = FH is easily the more susceptible to errors side than the BH.
Then you're basing your opinion on the wrong assumption
Even the top players with epic backhands, at least for the men, the forehand is always their sword, and the backhand the shield.
#16 Sword & Shield - Brain Game Tennis
It was never easy for me to exactly explain the relationship between your forehand and backhand - until now. Clearly understand the vastly different roles that these two shots have from the back of the court.
www.braingametennis.com
Whilst I can't give you access to the rest of the content, here are just some of the stats:
2012 US Open – Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic
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2012 Roland Garros Final
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smalahove
Hall of Fame
More interesting stats from USO 2015:
www.braingametennis.com
7. About 30% of serves don’t come back in the court.
In the men’s opening round, 30% of returns were missed. For the ladies, it was 23%. This is a combination of aces, service winners, and missed returns. It’s great to know this number, as players are always trying to find free points, essentially winning the point before it ever gets started.
8. Forehands Crush Backhands
Here’s the opening round groundstroke winners for men and women. I have never seen the women at the same percentage as the men – but it happened this year in the first round.
MEN = 67% Forehand Winners
Forehand 707
Backhand 351
WOMEN = 67% Forehand Winners
Forehand 476
Backhand 233
12. Most Serves go to the BACKHAND
In the men’s opening round, 57.8% of all returns were from the backhand wing – 42.2% on the forehand side. You better have a good backhand return if you want to successfully compete on tour. Backhand returns were also made more – 69.5% of all backhand returns went in the court, compared to 65.1% on the forehand side.
15 U.S. Open Facts You Must Know - Brain Game Tennis
Numbers remove opinion. Numbers remove guesswork. Let’s embrace data, shall we? It has been an extremely enjoyable start to the 2015 U.S. Open, writing for the New York Times and analyzing data to see exactly what numbers and patterns dominate our sport. Below are 15 data points that can...
www.braingametennis.com
7. About 30% of serves don’t come back in the court.
In the men’s opening round, 30% of returns were missed. For the ladies, it was 23%. This is a combination of aces, service winners, and missed returns. It’s great to know this number, as players are always trying to find free points, essentially winning the point before it ever gets started.
8. Forehands Crush Backhands
Here’s the opening round groundstroke winners for men and women. I have never seen the women at the same percentage as the men – but it happened this year in the first round.
MEN = 67% Forehand Winners
Forehand 707
Backhand 351
WOMEN = 67% Forehand Winners
Forehand 476
Backhand 233
12. Most Serves go to the BACKHAND
In the men’s opening round, 57.8% of all returns were from the backhand wing – 42.2% on the forehand side. You better have a good backhand return if you want to successfully compete on tour. Backhand returns were also made more – 69.5% of all backhand returns went in the court, compared to 65.1% on the forehand side.
xFedal
Legend
We are possibly seeing the slowest decline in history. Nole has tied Rafa with 6 slams won after age 30.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
An update: Novak is still at 28% of return games on hard this year. And unless he obviously improves that number is likely to fall lower. Keep an eye on that stat. His stat on service games is currently 91%. I don't think it's possible for him to maintain that number.
vex
Legend
Your title is completely off. All but the nutty Djokovic fans have noted his small decline, particularly in movement and endurance. His movement is slightly down and his stamina is very noticeably down.Dropbox - Error - Simplify your life
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
No, it is not. But it's a wishful thinking.
Novak Djokovic would most likely have won the last year's US Open from which he was disqualified in the quarterfinals after an unfortunate, and I'd say UNLUCKY incident. He played in the French Open final last year too. This year, he just won the AO. So, how much do you think he is declining?
Sometimes, I think people just write because they are bored but this is not an attack or an attempt to invalidate their views/feelings.
vex
Legend
... you’re not seriously trying to claim that Djokovic hasn’t declined a bit and is still at peak... ?
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
That's exactly what it is lmao
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
On clay he’s declined a lot. On the other surfaces though he’s still as good as ever.
Goosehead
Legend
don't forget about occasional trips to the toilet
..this adds further to the ttw exotic lifestyle.
Djokovic has been in decline for a long time, he's never again reached the peak of '11-early '12. Even after he came back in '18, his peak was lower than in '14-15.
His returns and groundstrokes are markedly not what they used to be; how could he be, he's not as strong and quick as he used to be! The only thing that has improved is his volley; a lot of that is mental however, he anticipates volleys much better than in the past! Many Djokfans acknowledge that!
His returns and groundstrokes are markedly not what they used to be; how could he be, he's not as strong and quick as he used to be! The only thing that has improved is his volley; a lot of that is mental however, he anticipates volleys much better than in the past! Many Djokfans acknowledge that!
Mediterranean Might
Professional
So many people in this thread just talking with emotions instead of looking at the very clear data.
@Gary Duane Great info, thanks for taking the time to do this.
The data here paints a very clear picture that Djoko's returning is on the decline and it'll likely continue that trend. However, I think it also says that his call to bring Goran into the fold was a very good one. That serve is so much more deadly and it's a great adjustment to his game made in response to his declining defense.
@Gary Duane Great info, thanks for taking the time to do this.
The data here paints a very clear picture that Djoko's returning is on the decline and it'll likely continue that trend. However, I think it also says that his call to bring Goran into the fold was a very good one. That serve is so much more deadly and it's a great adjustment to his game made in response to his declining defense.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
I think every fan can clearly see that Djokovic has declined a lot from his 2015-2016 peak. He doesn’t dominate throughout tournaments anymore, but seems to raise his level only when needed in close matches even when he wins the title.
The question though is if he is still good enough to win 3-4 more Slams as the declined Djokovic is still the best player in the world on grass, the best player on fast hard courts, top 3 player on slow hard courts and top 5 player on red clay. So, he still has a decent chance to win a couple of Slams every year for the next 2-3 years.
Also, it makes sense that he is better against the field on fast courts than slow courts currently because of his improved serving prowess and reduced returning/baseline skills. Djokovic is also unable to hit through many players on clay anymore like he used to do 5-10 years ago.
The question though is if he is still good enough to win 3-4 more Slams as the declined Djokovic is still the best player in the world on grass, the best player on fast hard courts, top 3 player on slow hard courts and top 5 player on red clay. So, he still has a decent chance to win a couple of Slams every year for the next 2-3 years.
Also, it makes sense that he is better against the field on fast courts than slow courts currently because of his improved serving prowess and reduced returning/baseline skills. Djokovic is also unable to hit through many players on clay anymore like he used to do 5-10 years ago.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
He was two years ago, not sure about now. Last WB was 2 years ago. Let's see how the Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Zverev play on the surface. Especially Tsitsipas. He is the most in form player in the world (leading the year race).
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes he was the most in-form clay player too, winning 17 straight sets before today. Couldn't handle a Nadal still rounding into form, but you want to make him the top dog for Bo5 grass?
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Zverev and Medvedev have big serve/flatter shot styles (Med on both wings, Zverev on BH) which might help them become contenders on grass faster than Tsitsipas who seems to prefer having more time to hit his returns and baseline shots. Tsitsipas will likely contend faster at the FO and USO before he becomes a consistent threat at Wimbledon especially as his BH return can be exploited on low-bouncing grass - he could be prone to upsets in the first week of Wimbledon like Nadal when the grass is faster.
When he won in '11, he just overpowered. When he won in '14-15, it was a more clinical approach. Now he just picks his spots.
Nadal's game also experienced great evolution. He used to stand way way behind the baseline. Because of speed loss, now he has to stand right behind it, hence the necessary change in coaches.
Federer's fans used to say, because of his serve and quick points, his game would stand best to the test of time. And they were right! I cannot point to any substantial difference between his game in mid-00's and mid-10's.
What Fedfans weren't counting on was that Nadal and Djokovic would just go on winning and dominating Slams, with their new approaches to the game!
Nadal's game also experienced great evolution. He used to stand way way behind the baseline. Because of speed loss, now he has to stand right behind it, hence the necessary change in coaches.
Federer's fans used to say, because of his serve and quick points, his game would stand best to the test of time. And they were right! I cannot point to any substantial difference between his game in mid-00's and mid-10's.
What Fedfans weren't counting on was that Nadal and Djokovic would just go on winning and dominating Slams, with their new approaches to the game!
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By the way, great champions evolve their games, just so they can keep winning championships!
Before his first retirement in '93, Michael Jordan was so dominant athletically, his signature move was flying to the basket. Two years later, he developed the mid-range turnaround jumper, that nobody could stop. So that became his signature move.
Before his first retirement in '93, Michael Jordan was so dominant athletically, his signature move was flying to the basket. Two years later, he developed the mid-range turnaround jumper, that nobody could stop. So that became his signature move.
Crazy Finn
Hall of Fame
That sounds nice in theory, but those guys have never done ANYTHING on grass. Tsitsipas certainly has a game for it .... on paper. I'm holding off of crowing anyone a top player on a surface until they... you know... actually prove something?
I wouldn't be shocked if somebody younger than 30 actually does SOMETHING at Wimbledon this year. It'll be long overdue. But, as a non-Djokovic fan, Novak, Federer (yes, even Roger), and possibly even Rafa have to be looked as contenders until someone else shows they can do something the All England Club.
The Tour looks like it's finally starting to get younger and players that aren't the Big 3 are starting to have more success. They didn't push themselves over the hill at the AO, and Wimbledon has been a bastion of veteran players for a decade, so that's probably the last place that'll budge. I'm not saying that it won't happen, or even won't happen this year, but I'm going to make the kids prove it.
RaulRamirez
Legend
Agreed.
Not looking at the stats (and I trust the OP, Gary's, numbers) on clay, his serve and return is somewhat neutralized. While he's still a great baseliner, more and more players can - on a given day - keep up with him from or even outduel him from the baseline now, if he's not razor sharp. One consequence of even slow aging is having more subpar days.
-snake-
Hall of Fame
It's just another classic example of Nextgen hype. Sissy only got to vulture that MC title 'cause Rubles did the dirty job for him. Nothing's changed at all.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Dropbox - Error - Simplify your life
Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
Sorry if it has already been posted but do you have these numbers for Nadal?
