SecondToNone
Semi-Pro
When you take into account that he played almost all of his matches against great servers in very fast Melbourne conditions it doesn't seem so bad.
Djokovic is in a slow decline, but his fans don't acknowledge it yet
- Thread starter Gary Duane
- Start date
Hayole
Rookie
Dropbox - Error - Simplify your life
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Here is the data, and it shows his fading ability to return compensated for improving service. This is not a troll thread, an attack or an attempt to invalidate any of his accomplishments.
In fact, the way he is losing some of his defensive ability is very slow, very subtle and may be the slowest decline we've ever seen in the history of tennis.
Aside from 2006, when he was just breaking into the ATP, his worst year ever for serving on hard was 2010, where he barely got over 82% of service game for the year. In 2011, his miracle returning year, he was very close to 85%. This year, so far, he is at very close to 91%. That's a 6% net gain on the service game, which is amazing. But his return game percentage is currently at 28%.
28% would be a dream come true for most top players, but for him it's not only a 13% drop from 2011, his miracle returning year, it's 4% below his career average.
He will have to raise that this year to keep the same dominance he's had in the past. Does that mean he's no longer the best hard court player in the world? No, because there is so far no one who is approaching that magic 60% number for all games, so he's still the guy to beat.
But keep in mind that his career average on hard is 59.76% of all games, and that average includes not only 2017, his worst year since 2006, but also every year up to 2010. So when his yearly average fall below his career average, that's a decline. Please be aware that a decline for Djokovic is at the point mostly superior to everyone else out there, so keep it in perspective.
Just remember that anything under 30% of games won on return is well below his career average, a whopping 32%. So look carefully this year to see if that number goes up, or if it goes lower.
Remember: all aging players have a decline in defensive skills. It's just a matter of how fast it happens, and now long it takes before they fall to a point they can no longer compensate.
Hey Gary, i just wanted to bump this now that the year is over and stats are in
Djokovic finished the 2021 season with a 87% hold percentage and 34% break percentage overall
On hard courts he finished with an 88% hold percentage and a 32% break percentage
He won a tour leading 60.5 of his games (2nd best was Medvedev with 58.6 and 3rd best was Zverev with 57.3)
So me the stats show that Djokovic is still playing at a GS winning level, but for how much longer? Who knows
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
His overall record on all surfaces this year is high because he had really good stats on clay.
But check hard:
Ultimate tennis says: 59.86%,
ATP gives this:
363 412 132 409, which is 60.29%
I can't explain the difference. What I can tell you is that this is still a bit above his career average, but in 2009 he played 64 matches on hard. This year 30. Fed played 61 in 2006,
More telling, return game% on hard:
2006 22.26%
2007 28.66%
2008 27.59%
2009 29.77%
2010 31.76%
2011 41.03%
2012 36.23%
2013 34.27%
2015 36.58%
2016 34.73%
2017 28.14%
2018 34.92%
2019 32.22%
2020 31.71%
2021 32.36%
Note that his serve was weaker in 2011, so he he stated compensating in 2012.
My conclusion: this year he hugely gut back on matches, and that has helped him as an aging player. Otherwise there is yet no definite sign of a decline statistically. Whether his competition was weaker this year is another question I won't get into.
Hayole
Rookie
Cutting back on the playing load definitely helped him but i would say that 30+ matches is enough of a sample when you consider that all the hc matches were in the 2 hc slams, 1 m1000+ATP finals and the olympics
I think the improved serving has helped to mask the decrease in baseline play but let's see how long he keeps it up
I think like you said his decline is so gradual that it's not visible to naked eye or in the statistics
Hayole
Rookie
You were right my friend
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
First of all, earlier in the year his stats were lower than they are now. My impression is that he's a good deal below where he was at his absolute peak in 2011 in defense, but his service game is so much more clinical now. 32% on return and 88% on serve keeps him at 60%, so at 60% he's going to go on winning slams most likely unless there is another guy who goes higher, and right now that does not seem likely.
Hayole
Rookie
I fully agree with that assessment and i mean it's just natural progression to get worse as you get older as an athlete
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
Anyone who knows me also knows that he was never a guy I rooted for. But I totally respect him as a player, and I think what he has done as an older player is one of the most impressive things I've seen in decades. Reason says he can't keep this up much longer, but I won't believe he's not going to continue winning until I see convincing signs of a decline. My personal view is that he can't be the same guy he was in 2015, and for that reason I think younger players should be exploiting his age. I thought this would be the year we would see that happening, and obviously I was wrong. 2022 may be the year we finally see the inevitable decline. But maybe not. I have to see it to believe it!
Hayole
Rookie
I mean it's not just your personal view that he isn't as good as 2015 as the stats and eye test back it up
I would however say his 1st serve is more potent now than ever in terms of getting free points
He played Russian roulette all year in slams and almost won the calendar slam so you are right that maybe 2nd tier players from other eras would've taken advantage of how ordinary he looked at times
I would however say that the pressure he looked like he was under all year (probably since USO DQ) to win more slams was probably burdening his perfomance level
Let's see what 2022 brings
Bubcay
Legend
Well, he is truly an exceptional athlete and his work ethic is second to none. That is why he is not a 'typical' aging player as he was taking care of his body like no one else I know. Of course, he will face an inevitable decline, but it seems it will be postponed for a few more years.
Clay lover
Legend
I think his fans have every motivation to say he has declined though. Then they can prop him up for dominating despite being in decline
Biotic
Legend
Wasn't there something about ATP not including TBs?
So, with 88+% serve game, he should be safely at the SFs/Fs of slams. At this point only Medvedev has the numbers and consistency, and Zverev has that gear to take him out, but we already knew that. The problem Djoko faces is that faster hc doesn't help him vs these two. S&V from Paris may not be a one time thing.
his opponents need to seriously study the Brooksby model: which is - make him a neutral rally player and get as many balls back as humanly possible: Unlike the other guys who are confident returners Brooksby methodically had one goal: just get the ball back into play off return.
Djokovic needs either aces or unreturned serves at this point in his career. Not wants, needs. Limit his free points at all costs and suddenly the guy isn’t so scary after all; even if you cough up short balls most of the time, just getting it back in play and giving your own defensive abilities a chance is such a better proposition than a high risk return that likely ends up in a shank.
That said I don’t think Djokovic’s results will decline too much as long as he keeps some level of explosiveness. He generates BPs whenever he needs them still. And he will play the big points better than the young guys nearly guaranteed. When he goes stretches without a BP created in a set, that’s when he should begin to worry. and it’s coming soon, imo.
Djokovic needs either aces or unreturned serves at this point in his career. Not wants, needs. Limit his free points at all costs and suddenly the guy isn’t so scary after all; even if you cough up short balls most of the time, just getting it back in play and giving your own defensive abilities a chance is such a better proposition than a high risk return that likely ends up in a shank.
That said I don’t think Djokovic’s results will decline too much as long as he keeps some level of explosiveness. He generates BPs whenever he needs them still. And he will play the big points better than the young guys nearly guaranteed. When he goes stretches without a BP created in a set, that’s when he should begin to worry. and it’s coming soon, imo.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Watch a video of Djokovic from 2015-16 at his peak and from this year. What you’ll see is that he is serving as well or better, but his baseline game has a lot less topspin particularly on his BH and he is prone to way more errors in long rallies. His patience in long rallies is way less than in the past, he doesn’t get to balls as early to set up properly to hit heavy spin and he tries to drop shot way too often to finish long points as he can’t hit through the Medvedevs/Zverevs as easily anymore on hard courts.
I expect him to be a bigger threat on clay/grass than he will be on hard courts against the best players. I will be very surprised if he wins more than two Slams on hard courts in the future, but I suspect he will win a lot more on clay/grass.
I expect him to be a bigger threat on clay/grass than he will be on hard courts against the best players. I will be very surprised if he wins more than two Slams on hard courts in the future, but I suspect he will win a lot more on clay/grass.
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
I don't trust the "eye test" unless what I see can be backed up with facts. Novak's style of play now seems very different, but I don't think you can argue with results.
More potent than 2011, but perhaps not as much as 2015.
One of the most important stats re free point is aces-DFs, In other words, find out for career and years the aces per game and DFs per game.
Karlovic got a net free point each game, more actually: 1.171. Isner is second. But Shapo this year is below 0 for net, meaning he loses more points on DFs than he gains on aces.
2011 0.382 - 0.124=0.258
2015 0.435 - 0.062=0.373
2021 0.556 - 0.193 = 0.363
This of course does not tell us how easily he wins other points. It would be wonderful to have strokes/service game, because that would really tell us something.
Right, but winning 60% or more of games is never ordinary, so sometimes he just makes winning look so easy, still.
Either that, or he has been the best for so long that he has trouble really concentrating until he gets in trouble!
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, and not counting them is stupid because they are the most important games. However, you can check % of TBs won, and if that % is close to % of all other games won, it won't change things. It might this year because his TB % is really low, under 54%
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
If the parts of your game that improved keep you winning the same % of games, you have not declined. Your skills have merely changed. We expect that from aging players who continue to win because they get smarter with more experience and better tactics. It's a race, as the mind gets sharper re strategy but the body gets slower/weaker and/or recovers slower.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Anyone know his stats on unreturned serve % in his best years like 2011, 2015 and how it compares to 2021?
Cortana
Legend
You don't need stats when you see it with your own eyes. His 2014-2016 domination was peak Djokovic. He declined obviously after that.
i dont know who said this honeymoon dont last forever
One day everybody goes into decline sooner or latter
another new useless record by djok
Djokovic is the only male player to win more grnadslams titles (AO, FO & Wimbledon) in a calendar year (2021) than ATP Ttiles (Belgrade 2 & Paris).
en.wikipedia.org
One day everybody goes into decline sooner or latter
another new useless record by djok
Djokovic is the only male player to win more grnadslams titles (AO, FO & Wimbledon) in a calendar year (2021) than ATP Ttiles (Belgrade 2 & Paris).
Novak Djokovic career statistics - Wikipedia
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The Big Foe fan
Hall of Fame
I wish to decline as slower as him when I hit my 30s lol.
The guy is ultra savage
The guy is ultra savage
The Big Foe fan
Hall of Fame
Not facing elite returners helped his cause ofcourse bruh.
Serve has improved without a shadow of a doubt, but still...
Hayole
Rookie
I don't trust the "eye test" unless what I see can be backed up with facts. Novak's style of play now seems very different, but I don't think you can argue with results.
More potent than 2011, but perhaps not as much as 2015.
One of the most important stats re free point is aces-DFs, In other words, find out for career and years the aces per game and DFs per game.
Karlovic got a net free point each game, more actually: 1.171. Isner is second. But Shapo this year is below 0 for net, meaning he loses more points on DFs than he gains on aces.
2011 0.382 - 0.124=0.258
2015 0.435 - 0.062=0.373
2021 0.556 - 0.193 = 0.363
This of course does not tell us how easily he wins other points. It would be wonderful to have strokes/service game, because that would really tell us something.
Right, but winning 60% or more of games is never ordinary, so sometimes he just makes winning look so easy, still.
Either that, or he has been the best for so long that he has trouble really concentrating until he gets in trouble!
I really like that aces per game and dfs per game stat... as you can see aces per game is highest in his career
I do agree that winning 60% of games is not ordinary at all, but I was just referring to some of his slam perfomances that looked messy
You're also spot on about him winning for so long that he's made being elite so for so long look easy
Like the case is with most greats i suspect most people will probably only start appreciating what he did in his career after he's retired
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
I think the eye test, even for very knowledgeable people, sometimes needs a reality check. But all the stats in the world can be misleading. I think when you combine the eye test with accurate stats you get something that is more reliable.
For example, I know that Shapo has a DF problem, but I think his serve is impressive looking overall. Today I found out that this year he has DFed more per game than he aces, something no player ever wants to do. That's like winning free points and then giving them all away, but a bit worse.
I did not realize Shapo is close to the leader this year in giving ways DFs per game. Or that Paire is apparently the worst in the ATP this year.
Sudacafan
Bionic Poster
As long as his decline is sufficiently slow, his fans and his opponents will not notice it.
Interesting that after OP date, Nole won two consecutive slams, though he could not keep with his immaculate performance towards the end of the year. Noticeable and maybe abrupt decline since Tokyo.
Interesting that after OP date, Nole won two consecutive slams, though he could not keep with his immaculate performance towards the end of the year. Noticeable and maybe abrupt decline since Tokyo.
bjsnider
Hall of Fame
Djokovic's return game really hasn't declined. Relative to the field, it was the top return game statistically this season. Nadal's numbers are superficially better, but he played most of his matches on clay. Return statistics for the field are inflated on slower surfaces. Djokovic's rank and percentages for 2021 are at about this decade's averages for him. On the other hand, he hasn't shown the ability to play week to week, and I doubt that's coming back. Djokovic is typically knocked off in smaller tournaments, where years ago he would have dominated the field. For whatever reason, he's playing and winning less in the ATP context, and I expect one reason for that is a focus on the majors (which are not ATP events).
His ROS and backhand declied a lot. Also, he said after Zverev match he could have played for couple of hours more. Thats prolly true, but he cant play long points and expect to recover from them fast. Thats why he is dropshoting a lot and going to the net more.
He isnt what he used to be, but is still enough for most of the tour.
He isnt what he used to be, but is still enough for most of the tour.
Tell me the number 1 declined after he loses the number 1 spot. Tennis is a game of oppression, the guy who wins when it matters is the best. That is why the winner of Wimbledon19 was the right one and not Fed.
Reality is dynamic, that is why TTW static mental masturbation is so terrible at predicting the future.
Reality is dynamic, that is why TTW static mental masturbation is so terrible at predicting the future.
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gqnelly
Rookie
Novak's game has evolved, for sure and it stands to reason that his physical skills might decline a bit. At the same time, he is smarter and can adjust in match better than he could when he was younger. The bottom line is his will to win may not be what it was when he was younger so he is not giving his all to win ATP 500 / 1000 tournaments like he did before he reached this ultimate level. You can also beat Novak in a best of 3...if you blink...you are down a set and the match can be over. He focuses on the Slams so his level of play has more peaks and valleys and he may not reach the highest levels he did in the past. I think ultimately what determines your level of play....is how much time you are spending on the court and how much match play you can use to hone your skills. He is playing 30% fewer matches...which appears to allow him to still play at a very high level without putting too much strain on his body.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Djoko has declined in few areas (such as the ability to play 80+ matches a year) and evolved in other areas skill wise.
This year Djokovic has yet again dominated a season, by far the best in the world and sealed the all time #1 record, won 3 slams + USO final, won Paris masters and made final in another. He has bested all his main rivals with positive h2h.
The biggest decline with Djokovic is the motivational factor now and like I said above the physical aspect to play 20 tournaments a year like he did many years ago. He has become so bored with masters these days, he is not hungry to win those anymore. He does have the record now, but I don't expect him to put much energy on defending that. For me it has become plain obvious how different Djokovic is at the slams, that's where all his energy and mental resilience goes into. It's a completely different Djokovic. As he has stated himself many a times, these days he just wants to time his game and energy to peak for the slams, nothing else. And now that he has pretty much secured every record there is, he will probably play even less now to focus on the majors.
This year Djokovic has yet again dominated a season, by far the best in the world and sealed the all time #1 record, won 3 slams + USO final, won Paris masters and made final in another. He has bested all his main rivals with positive h2h.
The biggest decline with Djokovic is the motivational factor now and like I said above the physical aspect to play 20 tournaments a year like he did many years ago. He has become so bored with masters these days, he is not hungry to win those anymore. He does have the record now, but I don't expect him to put much energy on defending that. For me it has become plain obvious how different Djokovic is at the slams, that's where all his energy and mental resilience goes into. It's a completely different Djokovic. As he has stated himself many a times, these days he just wants to time his game and energy to peak for the slams, nothing else. And now that he has pretty much secured every record there is, he will probably play even less now to focus on the majors.
RaulRamirez
Legend
I'll never count out one of the GOATs (and right now, the player with the best career achievements), but how many more slams are you projecting for him?
I honestly think that three more would be quite an achievement, perhaps, one more AO and two more Wimbledons - possibly one more at RG.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
Djokovic average baseline level is defintely a lot lower than it used to be. On an average day he can easily be losing the baseline exchanges vs a Medvedev or Zverev whereas in the old days he would just grind them to dust 100% of the time every time 24/7 any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Maybe a couple of hard court Slams, 2 Wimbledons and 1 FO? Wouldn’t be surprised if it is only 1 more hard court Slam, but I see him winning at least three more on clay/grass if he stays healthy.
RaulRamirez
Legend
A "dream" (of sorts) for me would be to see him get one more of each. He's too great to "only" have won 3 USOs.
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
I think most people can see Djokovic has been in clear decline since 2015 The 2015 Djokovic would breadstick this one you see on court today. . Its not his fault the past 2 generations of players are country club. hes just taking advantage of the situation.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
Yes, I agree that it is a small black mark on his career to win only 3 USOs and lose so many finals there as the top seeded player.
Don’t dream - send Djokovic some videos of his 2015-16 matches and tell him to play like that with a lot more topspin. The 6’6” guys can hit flat and avoid the net in long rallies, but a 6’2” guy needs more margin over the net with heavier topspin. If he finds a way to play like that, more USOs can be won - don’t know if he has the legs for it anymore.
Clearly he is not all super motivated for the Masters and the non Grand Slam Tournaments. Think from his perspective, he has achieved all that is to be achieved. Here is he is trying to play Robin Hood to get the poorer Tennis Players bigger pie and there there is a Masters tournament to be won.It just doesnt match up. He has outgrown that Old Novak and we as fans need to accept that. We ourseleves are not same as we were 10 years ago. Why should be as fans demand our idols should remain so?
He goes till 90 % of his potential in Masters and if somebody Elite is redlining they win, Like Thiem,Medvedev,Zverev did. But even that is difficult against him.
As for his game, His baseline play has gone down a notch, no longer he does outgrind his opponents as he did, now it has to do with his dwindling stamina as he is ageing or it has to do with his lack of patience, we dont know.
He goes till 90 % of his potential in Masters and if somebody Elite is redlining they win, Like Thiem,Medvedev,Zverev did. But even that is difficult against him.
As for his game, His baseline play has gone down a notch, no longer he does outgrind his opponents as he did, now it has to do with his dwindling stamina as he is ageing or it has to do with his lack of patience, we dont know.
Bhagi Katbamna
Legend
After about 25, everyone alive is in slow decline.
ElChivoEspañol
Hall of Fame
The problem with his game is that it is extremely physical, more so than Nadal’s. When he can’t slide to get deep flat balls back to his opponents it will be a sign of his rapid decline. Unlike Fedal, Djokovic does not possess a formidable FH, his BH has been very tentative and mostly missing for some time now.
The moment the top 10 realize they can out grind him is the moment it’s over for Djokovic. If he gets into a couple of dog fights in slams next year he isn’t winning any slams, mark this post.
The moment the top 10 realize they can out grind him is the moment it’s over for Djokovic. If he gets into a couple of dog fights in slams next year he isn’t winning any slams, mark this post.
gqnelly
Rookie
The return of serve is not something you can practice with a hitting partner. As good as they are...they dont have Daniil Medvedev or Alexander Zverev serves...they dont even have Denis Shapovalov or Frances Tiafoe serves. Players have started to change their service delivery to raise the contact point of their second serves which has helped neutralize his advantage a bit. For those saying that his forehand isnt a weapon like Nadals or Federers...what matches are you watching? Djokovic had 29 forehand winners in this years French Open final against Nadal (who had 33). His forehand is a massive weapon and he has one shot the others dont have...the short, wide angle hook shot off the court. If you play tennis...you know its easy to redirect pace (guys who hit hard). I dont have to supply much effort...so playing someone that hits hard isnt a disadvantage unless they can really hit their spots consistently.
Fiero425
Legend
After winning 6 Masters event in 2015, there was nowhere else to go but down! That record doesn't include 2 Finals Djokovic lost to Murray and Federer respectively in Canada and Cinn.! There are only 9 events and he skipped Madrid, but was getting stronger at 30 improving on his 2011 season by adding the YEC!
gqnelly
Rookie
I watch old matches on Youtube all day to study techniques (as I still play 3+ times per week) and for entertainment. I do see that he hit a bit flatter and his miss was often in the net with the forehand because of this....but its a mistake to try and hit Medvedev and Zverev off the court into the corners. They are too long and can redirect far too easily. This is why he has had success up the middle against Medvedev. It is not a wise strategy to try and hit Daniil off the court....the ball comes back with interest at an impossible angle.
bluetrain4
G.O.A.T.
I think they've fully acknowledged it. But it is a SLOW decline. I mean, geesh, he was in 4 Slam finals last year and won 3. He's still a very legitimate contender. What do you expect his fans to be doing?
Hayole
Rookie
This post makes no sense
He won most return games, most games overall % wise and had his highest ace rate ever in 2021
You act like there's some simple recipe
Zverev played a perfect match whenever he beat him thus year and same with Medvedev
Also the top 10 players play mostly different styles besides Medvedev/Zverev
Tsitsipas Can't outgrind, Rublev can't, Berrettini can't, Ruud can't, Hurkacz can't
they all have clear technical holes he can exploit that AZ/DM have less of
Djokovic is almost 35 and he's still mostly ahead of two 24-25 year olds in their peak so let's put things in their correct context
2022 should be fun
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After winning 6 Masters event in 2015, there was nowhere else to go but down! That record doesn't include 2 Finals Djokovic lost to Murray and Federer respectively in Canada and Cinn.! There are only 9 events and he skipped Madrid, but was getting stronger at 30 improving on his 2011 season by adding the YEC!
There is more to it than falling off a peak. If you include ATP finals, his 2019 and 2021 Masters record is worse than any of the years 2012-2014. (including 2013 where he had a lot of unexpected upsets in the Masters). After reaching five consecutive ATP finals between 2012-2016 winning four of them, he has only managed to reach one more final since.
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