Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by 5555, May 20, 2013.
He should be. He's the world no.1, and he's won it before. Federer is the best grass court player based on results, but he's fading, and having a poor season so far with no titles won. And Murray is currently injured. Nadal is having a great season, but he's won no majors yet.
I except Nadal will be installed with at least equal odds to Djokovic should he win Roland Garros. He might even be made the outright favorite. But they are waiting to see if he wins, I think.
If I were a betting man, I'd put some money on Tsonga with those odds.
Why is Delpo favoured to win over Tsonga on grass?
Strange odds imo, does this regularly happen in Tennis?
I don't think so but I believe Djokovic will win RG.
Wimbledon will be won by Murray or Roger.
I would favor Nole unless he runs into a wild Fed in the semis.
Dat's not important though.
RG is where it's at right now.
OP good at stating the obvious.
Djokovic is the favourite at any competition he enters.
Feel better now?
Well then there's a lot of money to be earned from the bookies, I would favor Murray and Nadal clearly over Djokovic at Wimbledon and Federer too if he gets his act together. Djokovic can easily lose to someone like Dimitrov, Gulbis, Tsonga, or the Berdman before even reaching the other top players.
At those odds I would bet on Nadal, Murray, or Tsonga right now. While Djokovic obviously has some chance, I wouldnt in a million years bet on Djokovic at those odds on grass. 33% chance of winning roughly, for someone who has reached only 1 Wimbledon final and last year lost to all of Federer, Murray, and Del Potro on grass, please.
Who makes more accurate probability estimates: bookmakers or you?
He's talking about the relative value in each of the players at the odds stated. He hasn't said something is right, wrong or more accurate, only his opinion of the value of the current odds.
I have to say I agree that Novak looks under-priced. He isn't good value at those odds - that's not to say he shouldn't be favourite.
Why should he be the favorite? He might be the #1 player in the world but he hasn't been the best grasscourter by any means and so far this year hasn't been particularly consistent either. He has only beaten his (at the time) pigeon Nadal of any top 4 player on the surface and that was an almost entirely mental victory. He is a clear underdog to any other top 4 player on grass and proved that last year. His strokes and lack of feel aren't well suited to grass and he can't move like he normally does either.
My money would actually be on Djokovic but there is no real logic to it. He was **** poor last Wimbledon vs Fed in the semis and bar 2011 has been pretty poor on grass.
That's definitely Clarky as the bookmaker. :lol:
I think it will be one of last years finalists or Dimitrov could have a run at it providing he can last 5 sets.
A good case for Novak not being favourite. I would counter by saying he is the world number 1 and won his last match versus all of the rest of the top 4.
IMO the top four have a roughly equal chance @ SW 19.
Indeed. Djokovic's worst surface is grass, but since he was literally flying on the court in 2011 and didn't met Federer either who (literally) found a way to loose, he won the tournament. But Djokovic, while not being upset material, isn't that good on grass. And Tsonga is better than Del Potro on grass too. Murray's odds are much more realistic IMO, since he defends himself pretty well on grass.
Cvac is the favorite for every tournament he enters. He is the best player in the world, you know.
Really? Literally flying? :shock:
Yes. It seems people are constantly underrating Novak on grass. Is it his worst surface? Sure it is. But he could win it and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he did. People pretending like there is no way Novak could win on grass or that there is a huge gap between him and the other 3 are deluding themselves tbh.
As a comparison, I would say that Djokovic has a much better shot at winning Wimbledon than Federer does at winning the French Open for example.
He hasn't beat any of them on a grass court bar Nadal in 2011, the HC and clay results are not particularly relevant. Grass is totally different from HC and clay, Federer was thrashed in straight sets last year in Rome and RG by Djokovic only to routine him in 4 sets at Wimbledon only a few weeks later. Murray routined him at the Olympics too and afterwards he lost in 2 sets to Del Potro of all people. Even in 2011, he got lucky that Nadal made the final because he was totally in Rafa's head at the time. If Federer or Murray had made the final he would have been toast. Head to head against any of the top 4, I think most reasonable people must expect him to lose. I certainly do.
He's a Wimbledon champion and I think you underplay his grass court capabilities - but it's all about opinions mate; and your's is as good as mine.
I hate to say this since you seem like a fair poster, but I think you are underplaying Novak's abilities even on grass because you don't like him.
Nah. Nadal, Federer and Murray would be the fave in my eyes in a match-up with Nole at Wimbledon. I just don't rate him particularly as a player on grass. There is a serious question mark though over Murray's fitness right now.
He is definitely a top 4 player on the surface, but I think the other top 4 are just more natural grass court players than him and have the wins/results to prove it. I don't see him winning Wimbledon unless he gets very lucky, I favor all of the other 4 top players over him in a head to head matchup and I think thats justified by facts.
If we can't joke a bit anymore... You have to hand the carrot to the No1e fans y'know?
Don't worry mate -I'm just being a grammar N@zi
Outside of Super Djokovic (Jan-Sep 2011) who played 9 months of tennis above probably what he ever will, Djokovic is a good enough grass courter, but clearly inferior to all of Federer, Nadal, or Murray on the surface IMO. Even in 2011 he might have been inferior but he didnt have to play Federer or Murray at Wimbledon, and we all know what a nightmarish matchup he is for Nadal, and the huge mental edge he had gained over Nadal at the time. Last year was more the norm for him, doing quite well and going deep but always losing to the first elite opponent he faced, going 0-3 vs the Federer, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro group of players. Even Berdych and Tsonga have a great shot vs him on grass, and better than they would on any other surface.
Lolz, apparently it is starting to become "acceptable" to use "literally" for emphasis as opposed to stating an actual occurrence.
I've literally noticed that.
Would be a hanging offence in Batz's Britain.
I'm not the guys biggest fan either, and your facts are good, but it just seems like you and NA are trying to convince us why there is no possible way he can win.
But I'm saying that if anybody is surprised if he does end up winning then you haven't been paying attention. And batz is saying it too obviously. He's a bad matchup for Nadal regardless of whether Nadal is a "better" GC player overall. Much the same as Nadal-Federer even when Federer was younger. Speaking of Fed, his form is up and down like a yo-yo at the best of times since his prime ended, and the roof close last year only helped him. Not to mention he played great. If Fed plays bad, average Djokovic beats him on any surface IMHO. And Murray is not good enough to the point where we can just say he will beat Djokovic and that's that. Even on grass.
While I might make Nole very slight second favourite against the rest of the top 4 on grass in any individual matchup, he's a course and distance winner - and that has to count for a lot.
He could win the tournament, and it wouldn't be completely surprising. I just don't see how he can logically be the favorite (i.e. have the best chance of winning the tournament amongst all contenders) when you watch the matches and look at the facts. He is clearly an inferior grasscourter to the rest of the top 4, he should be 4th favorite IMO. You are going to have to go through at least 1, if not more top 4 members to win the tournament and he is the underdog in any matchup against them. Then you have players like Haas, Berdych, Tsonga, Del Potro, Dimitrov, Gulbis who IMO stand a very decent chance of upsetting him on grass.
Then we agree. I wasn't going on 5555's thread premise that he's the favourite anyway. Right now, I guess Nadal is the favourite, but we saw how that turned out last year.
And, if you were a bookmaker, I doubt you'd give good odds to anyone placing a bet on Djokovic playing anywhere.
Screw the rules, I'm no native English speaker. :evil:
President has said that Nadal, Federer and Murray are more likely to win Wimbledon than Djokovic. Therefore, he claims that bookmakers are wrong.
Who makes more accurate probability estimates: bookmakers or you?
Well, you were wrong. Nadal has won RG, but Djokovic is still the 1st favorite http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/mens-wimbledon/winner
Which player did the bookmakers pick to win Wimbledon last year ?
Considering his rivals are ******* who barely beat him in his best surface and whose physical integrity is suspect, Murray also with physical issues, Olderror, Tsonga and bloody Tommy Haas, what did you expect?
Djokovic is overrated to be 4th favorite at Wimbledon. I would put him 3rd or 4th behind Nadal and Murray for sure, and possibly behind Federer too. Grass is his worst surface by far, so unless he is in his 2011 career best form which he isnt, he is not winning there. He failed to win the French which is on a surface he is far superior on than grass.
He was good enough to take the greatest clay courter of all time to 9-7 in the 5th set 3 days ago. He can't be that badly out of form
Sorry, I just wanna clear this up, why in the world did you use, the word, STILL?!
IMO Federer should not be so far down as 4th favourite. Djokovic is rightly favourite, he's beaten Nadal at Wimbledon and more importantly than not, Nadal is going into Wimbledon with no grasscourt tennis.
IMO I think he's going in with no expectations and with nothing to lose.
Djokovic is not the favorite, it's Murray, he's been gearing up for grass court season while everyone else was playing baseline bashing at Roland Garros.
They are just trying to get equal take on both sides of the vig. The people taking Djokovic for Wimbledon are the less-than-knowledgeable. The bookies need to get their bets, too. As we approach Wimbledon, expect those lines to change significantly.
Nobody who knows tennis is taking Djokovic on grass unless the odds are very very good.
Djokovic has to contend with a field that includes Federer, Tsonga, Del Potro, Murray, and Nadal. If four out five of those men are in form... Djokovic has little chance.
I think that as World No. 1 and a previous Wimbledon champion, Djokovic should be going in as a slight favorite. I'd put Murray next after his Wimbledon final, Olympic win, USO win, and AO final. Federer would be third just based on his history on the surface and the fact that he's defending champion. If his results at Halle are good (like a win there), he could potentially be moved to second. I'd place Nadal fourth simply because he's played quite a lot of tennis lately, his second-round exit last year, and the fact that he's coming in with no competitive grass-court matches.
This is what is keeping me interested in Wimbledon this year: The Scott winning the whole darn thin.
They better have Wimbledon playing like a fast blast grass court again.
This will benefit the Scott big time. They are dummies if they don't get the courts tweaked to benefit the Scott!
By god make it happen!
This, Djokovic can lose to any decent grasscourter. Rafael Nadal should be the favorite for Wimbledon, Andy Murray a very close second.
Agree. I would probably have Nadal as the slight favorite at say 5/2, Murray next at 3/1, then Federer at 9/2, and then Djokovic at 6/1.
Why wouldn't he?
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