Djokovic might not be too huge of a favorite at Wimbledon

#1
From falstaff78's cumulative stats, it looks like Djokovic's stats aren't that impressive. Because people are labeling him a massive favorite for the time.
And especially looking at Nole's scorelines and how hard it is to win games against the guy.

Nole's 2nd serve points won is a bit sketchy. And his return numbers are the best of Federer/Nadal, but not that much better.
However, it seems that Nole is hitting the ball so cleanly, and I know he loses his concentration more than Federer/Nadal in the early part of slams.

I know Djokovic raises his level in the tail end of slams, but Federer/Nadal aren't playing badly.
Hence, Djokovic might not be too huge of a favorite at Wimbledon.

Side note: based on stats, Federer is not that huge of an underdog against Nadal.
Nadal might be playing better and looking more impressive, and certain intangibles might be against Fed
but Federer isn't playing badly at all (surprisingly good on some stats, even compared to W 2017).
 
#2
He's a massive favorite because he's got a 90%+ chance of beating RBA in the semi, and is favored against Nadal and Federer. Probably 60%-65% against Nadal, 70% or so against Federer (maybe that's conservative)

Since Nadal and Federer are close to even in the semi (I think Nadal is slightly favored), their odds go down quite a bit.

So Nadal has 55% chance against Fed, then 40% against Djokovic = 24.75% chance
Federer has 45% against Nadal, then 30% against Djokovic = 16.2% chance
RBA has 10% against Djokovic, then 10% against Fedal = 1% chance
Djokovic has 90% against RBA, then 60% against Nadal, 70% against Fed = 58.05% chance

These chances change signficantly once the semis are over, though.
Assuming Djokovic gets through, then it will be:
Djokovic = 60% or 70%; Nadal 40% or Federer 30%.

Nadal and Federer's chances close to double after beating the other, but Djokovic's chances improve only slightly. He's just the single most likely person to win, especially because he doesn't need to face 2 of the Big 3 in a row.
 
#3
Didn’t think he looked that impressive either. Not sure if I’d favor him up against Nadal. But we’ve seen him raise his level before and he can do it again
 
#4
Didn’t think he looked that impressive either. Not sure if I’d favor him up against Nadal. But we’ve seen him raise his level before and he can do it again
Djokovic has been managing his game very well, though, and I think he has plenty of room to elevate his game. He just hasn't needed to do anything special outside of that first set against Goffin.
 
#5
I agree that there is not a lot to choose in terms of quality between the big three and even Roberto so far.

I am hoping like the Australian open we could see Novak raise his game but we shall see.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
#6
From falstaff78's cumulative stats, it looks like Djokovic's stats aren't that impressive.
How about relying on your eyes instead of stats? Anyone who has watched Djokovic's 5 matches so far can see he is the favorite to win the event and his form has been very impressive. This obsession with stats here has become pathological. If you think Djokovic isn't a big favorite here, you haven't watched any of his matches, nor Nadal or Fed. Maybe you weren't watching tennis in the long, long ago time ago of Wimbledon 2015, but going into the final, Fed had a gazillion more aces than Novak, much better form, less time on court annd every other favorable "stat" you want to throw out there, but he lost the match anyway.

Screw the stats and watch the matches. :eek:
 
#8
From falstaff78's cumulative stats, it looks like Djokovic's stats aren't that impressive. Because people are labeling him a massive favorite for the time.
And especially looking at Nole's scorelines and how hard it is to win games against the guy.

Nole's 2nd serve points won is a bit sketchy. And his return numbers are the best of Federer/Nadal, but not that much better.
However, it seems that Nole is hitting the ball so cleanly, and I know he loses his concentration more than Federer/Nadal in the early part of slams.

I know Djokovic raises his level in the tail end of slams, but Federer/Nadal aren't playing badly.
Hence, Djokovic might not be too huge of a favorite at Wimbledon.

Side note: based on stats, Federer is not that huge of an underdog against Nadal.
Nadal might be playing better and looking more impressive, and certain intangibles might be against Fed
but Federer isn't playing badly at all (surprisingly good on some stats, even compared to W 2017).

Go visit all his cumulative stat threads and what they infer and check them against the actual results of the following matches.


Feel free to then report back.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
#9
None of those stats are very useful because they depend too much on what their opponents did. Querrey's stats looked amazing until he faced Nadal.
Ultimately, how the big 3 fare against one another has nothing to do with their stats vs the field.
 
#10
None of those stats are very useful because they depend too much on what their opponents did. Querrey's stats looked amazing until he faced Nadal.
Ultimately, how the big 3 fare against one another has nothing to do with their stats vs the field.

I find them interesting, but not a good predictor or even indicator of results when it comes to rivals who have immense knowledge of each other's games and whose match-ups are worlds unto themselves.
 
#11
Go visit all his cumulative stat threads and what they infer and check them against the actual results of the following matches.


Feel free to then report back.
Please give a more constructive response. I was set off by the response, but please try to be more respectful.

I
 
#18
Please remove the quotes, that was posted by someone else.
Yeh I've removed them.

Anyway all I'm saying is I wouldn't depend on these stats for the match-ups between the Big Three, because they've played each other so much that it changes the equation and it really just becomes about the specific match-up between the players rather than the form they're taking into the match.
 
#19
Yeh I've removed them.

Anyway all I'm saying is I wouldn't depend on these stats for the match-ups between the Big Three, because they've played each other so much that it changes the equation and it really just becomes about the specific match-up between the players rather than the form they're taking into the match.
Sorry about the previous hacked messages, but how big of a favorite is Djokovic in your opinion?
 
#20
Sorry about the previous hacked messages, but how big of a favorite is Djokovic in your opinion?
Don't worry about any of it. It's all fine.


Well Djokovic only has to beat one Big Three player but Federer and Nadal have to beat two Big Three players. On that alone, I think he should be favoured over both Federer and Nadal, especially considering his results against them in the Slams over the last several years.

I don't think Djokovic is a lock and if he doesn't win Wimbledon it will not be a disaster, but only having to beat one of the Big Three gives him an advantage, as does his track record at Wimbledon being better than either Federer's or Nadal's since 2011.

So I'd say something like Djokovic 50%, Nadal 30% Federer 19% Agut 1%.
 
#22
From falstaff78's cumulative stats, it looks like Djokovic's stats aren't that impressive. Because people are labeling him a massive favorite for the time.
And especially looking at Nole's scorelines and how hard it is to win games against the guy.

Nole's 2nd serve points won is a bit sketchy. And his return numbers are the best of Federer/Nadal, but not that much better.
However, it seems that Nole is hitting the ball so cleanly, and I know he loses his concentration more than Federer/Nadal in the early part of slams.

I know Djokovic raises his level in the tail end of slams, but Federer/Nadal aren't playing badly.
Hence, Djokovic might not be too huge of a favorite at Wimbledon.

Side note: based on stats, Federer is not that huge of an underdog against Nadal.
Nadal might be playing better and looking more impressive, and certain intangibles might be against Fed
but Federer isn't playing badly at all (surprisingly good on some stats, even compared to W 2017).
Stats are nice but you need to take them with a huge grain of salt for multiple reasons:

1. Not obtained against same opponents.
2. Don't necessarily reflect true porential or current form. Why would Djokovic want to kill himself against the journeymen he has had to play in his draw when he could just coast while Nadal has to fret and push it to be able to beat superior opponents? The beauty of Djokovic's draw will be evident in the final when it will really pay off. Tomorrow he's playing RBA while Fed and Nadal play each other. LOL
 
#23
Don't worry about any of it. It's all fine.


Well Djokovic only has to beat one Big Three player but Federer and Nadal have to beat two Big Three players. On that alone, I think he should be favoured over both Federer and Nadal, especially considering his results against them in the Slams over the last several years.

I don't think Djokovic is a lock and if he doesn't win Wimbledon it will not be a disaster, but only having to beat one of the Big Three gives him an advantage, as does his track record at Wimbledon being better than either Federer's or Nadal's since 2011.

So I'd say something like Djokovic 50%, Nadal 30% Federer 19% Agut 1%.
What are your concerns about Nole?
 
#25
What are your concerns about Nole?

I don't really have any other than of course the final could be extremely difficult for him. Just look at the 2018 SF between Djokovic-Nadal. But in terms of form I reckon Djokovic looks really good and more importantly in terms of match-up he has the obvious edge against either Nadal or Federer.
 
#26
How about relying on your eyes instead of stats? Anyone who has watched Djokovic's 5 matches so far can see he is the favorite to win the event and his form has been very impressive. This obsession with stats here has become pathological. If you think Djokovic isn't a big favorite here, you haven't watched any of his matches, nor Nadal or Fed. Maybe you weren't watching tennis in the long, long ago time ago of Wimbledon 2015, but going into the final, Fed had a gazillion more aces than Novak, much better form, less time on court annd every other favorable "stat" you want to throw out there, but he lost the match anyway.

Screw the stats and watch the matches. :eek:
Wow, never thought I'd see the day when a Federer fan defends Djokovic o_O
 
#28
How about relying on your eyes instead of stats? Anyone who has watched Djokovic's 5 matches so far can see he is the favorite to win the event and his form has been very impressive. This obsession with stats here has become pathological. If you think Djokovic isn't a big favorite here, you haven't watched any of his matches, nor Nadal or Fed. Maybe you weren't watching tennis in the long, long ago time ago of Wimbledon 2015, but going into the final, Fed had a gazillion more aces than Novak, much better form, less time on court annd every other favorable "stat" you want to throw out there, but he lost the match anyway.

Screw the stats and watch the matches. :eek:
Ha ha it's not incompatible. I watch the matches first, then I look at the stats. You can use both when passing a judgement. I would say Nole has shown great length, topnotch return but also some vulnerability on the serve. From what I've seen, he could be in real trouble if he faced a big server because he's relying a lot on being able to break back when he gets broken (as opposed to avoiding getting broken in the first place).
 
#29
Some lessons even an idiot could learn just by "play, rinse and repeat".

1. Djokovic raises his level at the deep end of slams by at least 1 or 2, sometimes 4 or 5.
2. Nadal is always the favourite at RG.
3. Federer will swat aside journeymen but get exposed on the BH wing vs Nadal on clay and Djokovic everywhere else.
4. The nextgen are not good enough to beat the top 3 and will only be when they significantly slow down.
 
#31
Throw stats out the window when Djokovic sees Federer or Nadal on the other side of the net.
The problem is that stats and H2H plus recent play would give you a very good predictor of what would happen if any two players played frequently over a short period. Think of the touring pros of the 50s and 60s who faced each other again and again and again. In a year it was pretty predictable, but in any one match anything could happen.

That's the way I see it this year. Nadal at RG was an easy pick this year and in most years. But Djokovic has been much more up and down over the last year, Nadal's body has become more fragile, and Fed's return skills at almost 38 are now totally unpredictable. The way I see it, this year the top 3 are so close that it was bound to be unfairly biased towards one of them no matter what happened. There was a 50/50 chance that Nadal was going to face Novak in the SF, then it would have been tilted in Fed's favor. But that's if RBA goes down easily and Fedal is a long, hard match.

I'm about to go to bed, and I'll just check the scores when I get up. I don't want the tension. If I don't like the results, I'll do an autopsy. ;)

My only prediction: a LOT of salt from now until Sunday afternoon!!!
 
#32
@Hitman I have a bad feeling about this matchup. Nole has to be firing in all cylinders for a straights sets victory. RBA has been playing very well, and can keep ball in play. Very clinical.
 

Bud

Bionic Poster
#33
Stats have had nothing to do with their match up. Literally nothing. It's all about Fed's mentality and their respective forms.
If Federer's BH is on and taken early DTL, he'll have a better than 50% chance, IMO. If Nadal plays aggressive and doesn't go too much to the Federer BH (if it's firing), Nadal > 50%.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#35
@Hitman I have a bad feeling about this matchup. Nole has to be firing in all cylinders for a straights sets victory. RBA has been playing very well, and can keep ball in play. Very clinical.
I understand your apprehensions and also where they stem from. RBA is a gutsy fighter and he will play his game, but if Djokovic comes out the way I believe he will come out, there will be only one winner. Novak will be looking to put his foot the accelerator now, now that he is in the semis. He knows a good win here sets him up ideally for the final, knowing Fedal will have to go through each other now.
 

Hitman

Bionic Poster
#36
The problem is that stats and H2H plus recent play would give you a very good predictor of what would happen if any two players played frequently over a short period. Think of the touring pros of the 50s and 60s who faced each other again and again and again. In a year it was pretty predictable, but in any one match anything could happen.

That's the way I see it this year. Nadal at RG was an easy pick this year and in most years. But Djokovic has been much more up and down over the last year, Nadal's body has become more fragile, and Fed's return skills at almost 38 are now totally unpredictable. The way I see it, this year the top 3 are so close that it was bound to be unfairly biased towards one of them no matter what happened. There was a 50/50 chance that Nadal was going to face Novak in the SF, then it would have been tilted in Fed's favor. But that's if RBA goes down easily and Fedal is a long, hard match.

I'm about to go to bed, and I'll just check the scores when I get up. I don't want the tension. If I don't like the results, I'll do an autopsy.;)

My only prediction: a LOT of salt from now until Sunday afternoon!!!

Good idea. LOL :)
 
#37
The problem is that stats and H2H plus recent play would give you a very good predictor of what would happen if any two players played frequently over a short period. Think of the touring pros of the 50s and 60s who faced each other again and again and again. In a year it was pretty predictable, but in any one match anything could happen.

That's the way I see it this year. Nadal at RG was an easy pick this year and in most years. But Djokovic has been much more up and down over the last year, Nadal's body has become more fragile, and Fed's return skills at almost 38 are now totally unpredictable. The way I see it, this year the top 3 are so close that it was bound to be unfairly biased towards one of them no matter what happened. There was a 50/50 chance that Nadal was going to face Novak in the SF, then it would have been tilted in Fed's favor. But that's if RBA goes down easily and Fedal is a long, hard match.

I'm about to go to bed, and I'll just check the scores when I get up. I don't want the tension. If I don't like the results, I'll do an autopsy. ;)

My only prediction: a LOT of salt from now until Sunday afternoon!!!
Haha, but you're right. Federer would most likely beat RBA in straight sets, while Djokdal would go the distance. Would have made for a very different final.
 
#38
Haha, but you're right. Federer would most likely beat RBA in straight sets, while Djokdal would go the distance. Would have made for a very different final.
I know there are all sorts of conspiracy theories about seeding, but I think in the end it doesn't matter much. It might be different if 1 always played 4, and 2 was always scheduled to play 3. But as it is I see no advantage of being 2 rather than 3. There was so much anger about who was going to play who, but as always it has turned out very different from what was predicted. It's come down again to three guys way over age 30, with one youngster - wait, the youngster is 31. :)
 
#39
I got up, checked the first match. Joker was ahead, but I saw that RBA took set 2. Joker won 3, but it could be a long match. I went to answers a couple emails and was going to watch the end, but I guess Novak went into Terminator mode. It was 1/0. I blinked a couple of times. Then 6/2. Now we'll see if Fedal turns into a heavyweight fight and leaves both too tired to have a chance in two days!
 
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