The teams still able to be 4-2 runner ups are the following (Bolded meaning favored to win group):
A:
Spain, Russia
B:
Sweden, Kazakhstan
C: Czechia, GB
D:
Croatia, Hungary
E: USA, Colombia
F:
Serbia, Germany.
It's reasonable to think only 4-2 match W/L records will advance a team to the QFs of the Davis Cup, but not impossible for 3-3 to succeed as well. However, we'll see many 3-3 records and fewer 4-2s, so let's consider that the breaking point for the 2 runner up teams.
Group A: Russia or Spain can definitely get a 4-2 record. The loser of their H2H will likely be the runner up of the group and would need a 3-0 record over Ecuador (which Spain already has). It isn't impossible, but they do have a strong doubles team. Could be tough.
Group B: I could see Kazakhstan winning 2-1 over both Canada and Sweden, resulting in a 4-2 RU for Sweden. I do not see Sweden beating Kazakhstan and then Kazakhstan beating Canada 3-0, however.
Group C: A 4-2 would be contingent on GB beating Czechia 3-0 or Czechia beating GB 3-0, as France cannot be a 4-2 RU (need 2 wins, but that guarantees a win). The first scenario is the far more likely, but even that isn't 100% and is dependent on GB losing to France in the first place.
Group D: I don't see Croatia losing to Hungary, nor do I see Australia losing 3-0 to Hungary. I wholeheartedly think Australia will be the runner up with 3-3 or 2-4.
Group E: Is the USA beating Colombia 3-0? Unlikely, considering they have among the best doubles players with them. Also Galan could manage a singles win. So it's possible, I don't think it's likely.
Group F: Relies on Germany beating Austria 3-0 and losing 1-2 to Serbia. Doubles could be iffy against Austria, but singles should be more straightforward. I could definitely see a 3-0 win and a 1-2 loss. And in the unlikely event that they win 2-1 against Serbia, then Serbia will end up with the RU.
Predictions for runner ups:
Likely (most to least): Group A/F, Group B.
Unlikely (most to least): Group D, Group E, Group C.
Ties to watch:
- All of Group C, as it really matters quite a bit, and the winner isn't even close to being determined.
- Sweden/Kazakhstan - anything less than a 3-0 win by Kazakhstan would be good for Sweden and practically lock their place in the next round.
- Spain/Russia - the strongest group tie here. Should be the best tennis we see until the quarterfinals.
- Serbia/Germany - the match between Lajovic/Krajinovic and Koepfer should be good, and probably the decider for who the runner up will be.
That being said, since the most likely to have runner ups are A/F, we are close to knowing our bracket. My prediction:
Spain vs Germany
France vs Serbia
Italy vs Croatia
Russia vs Sweden
Honestly though, I could see wanting to be a runner up instead of a winner for Group F - they'll either go up against Spain or Sweden, but it's not a sure thing either way.
Anyway I'll keep this updated over the next couple days.