Texas Tennis Fan
Professional
In celebration of Djokovic's 20 slams and to change the discussion a bit, I offer the following. I have never made an outlandish prediction, but I am predicting Djokovic reaches 500 weeks at No. 1 assuming he plays for several years and does not have a major injury.
Unlike a lot of people here, I think that the weeks at No. 1 is a big deal. Sure, holding it for one week is not a big deal, but having hundreds of weeks is a big deal and after slams the second most important measure to me of overall greatness because it shows consistency, all-court quality play, and ability to rise to the heights to win Slams and Masters 1000s.
The biggest reason beyond his own personal drive that he has a real shot at 500 weeks is that there are many good ATP players who split points allowing Djokovic to continue to hold onto No. 1. I do think these great players on any given day can beat anyone. Thus, I do not subscribe to the weak era arguments which are sort of irrelevant anyway given that the weeks at No. 1 are spread out over more than 12 years.
Main Threats:
Nadal- The last to hold No. 1 before Djokovic, but is unlikely to play often enough or do well enough on non-clay tournaments to take over No. 1 for much more than a few weeks.
Tsitsipas- Probably the biggest overall threat since he seems to have mastered hardcourt and clay, but continues to have issues with grass.
Medvedev- Showed surprising deeper runs at RG and Wimbledon, but hardcourt is where he shines. Since there are more hardcourts than other tournaments, this gives him an advantage.
Berritini- Has gotten to two SFs on two different surfaces since 2019 and was at the QF at RG, so he can win on all three surfaces. He will have to be more consistent in the future.
Thiem- Has fallen a lot recently, but I expect him to come back once he is healthy to challenged and to win a lot of ATP points. I am expecting him to come back strong in 2022.
Lesser Threats:
Zverev- I put him a little lower though he has won several Masters 1,000s tournaments. I just don’t think he is consistent enough to win enough points to be a threat.
Shapopolov- Had a nice Wimbledon run, but needs to develop more wins at other slams.
Rublev, Felix Auger Aliassime, Sinner, Karatsev, and others are very unlikely to ever be No. 1, but can steal points from other players that keeps them from overtaking Djokovic.
Unlike a lot of people here, I think that the weeks at No. 1 is a big deal. Sure, holding it for one week is not a big deal, but having hundreds of weeks is a big deal and after slams the second most important measure to me of overall greatness because it shows consistency, all-court quality play, and ability to rise to the heights to win Slams and Masters 1000s.
The biggest reason beyond his own personal drive that he has a real shot at 500 weeks is that there are many good ATP players who split points allowing Djokovic to continue to hold onto No. 1. I do think these great players on any given day can beat anyone. Thus, I do not subscribe to the weak era arguments which are sort of irrelevant anyway given that the weeks at No. 1 are spread out over more than 12 years.
Main Threats:
Nadal- The last to hold No. 1 before Djokovic, but is unlikely to play often enough or do well enough on non-clay tournaments to take over No. 1 for much more than a few weeks.
Tsitsipas- Probably the biggest overall threat since he seems to have mastered hardcourt and clay, but continues to have issues with grass.
Medvedev- Showed surprising deeper runs at RG and Wimbledon, but hardcourt is where he shines. Since there are more hardcourts than other tournaments, this gives him an advantage.
Berritini- Has gotten to two SFs on two different surfaces since 2019 and was at the QF at RG, so he can win on all three surfaces. He will have to be more consistent in the future.
Thiem- Has fallen a lot recently, but I expect him to come back once he is healthy to challenged and to win a lot of ATP points. I am expecting him to come back strong in 2022.
Lesser Threats:
Zverev- I put him a little lower though he has won several Masters 1,000s tournaments. I just don’t think he is consistent enough to win enough points to be a threat.
Shapopolov- Had a nice Wimbledon run, but needs to develop more wins at other slams.
Rublev, Felix Auger Aliassime, Sinner, Karatsev, and others are very unlikely to ever be No. 1, but can steal points from other players that keeps them from overtaking Djokovic.