Djokovic to surpass Nadal in Weeks at #1

jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
I did some math here, and it looks like Djoker will overtake Nadal in that category, unless Fed plays more tournaments than he usually does. The current gap between Djokovic and Fed is 3800 points.

  • Djokovic is defending 2280 points - 280 (Dubai SF) + 1000 (Indian Wells W) + 1000 (Miami W)
  • Federer is defending 1280 points - 500 (Dubai W) + 600 (Indian Wells F) + 180 (Miami QF)
If Fed manages to win Dubai, IW + Miami he'll win 2500, gaining 1220 on last year. Assuming Djokovic skips all of those events entirely, he'll still be 300 points ahead of Fed (3800 - 1220 - 2280), which should be enough to cover any DC wins.

Djokovic's MC points don't drop until 20.04.2015, which is 11 weeks from now. Djokovic sits at 131 weeks (as of last Monday), which means he's pretty much guaranteed 142 weeks. Nadal has 141 weeks.

:)
 
More prize money, more top ten wins, twice as many HC majors and very soon more weeks at #1 and consecutive weeks inside the top 2. Ooh it's all coming together nicely! :smile:
 
Djokovic2011 said:
More prize money, more top ten wins, twice as many HC majors and very soon more weeks at #1 and consecutive weeks inside the top 2. Ooh it's all coming together nicely! :smile:
Click to expand...

What do you believe he needs to surpass Nadal?

One more of the other 3 slams? The the rest makes up the difference (#1 WTF etc)
 
Djokovic2011 said:
More prize money, more top ten wins, twice as many HC majors and very soon more weeks at #1 and consecutive weeks inside the top 2. Ooh it's all coming together nicely! :smile:
Click to expand...

4 to 0 WTFs titles, more match wins at all slams except RG, More YE#1, etc.

It's getting tight for Rafa.
 
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Nathaniel_Near said:
Are you equating YEC's to Slams, ergo Majors?
Click to expand...

This would be a little silly... Novak is six Slams from overtaking Nadal (assuming he gets RG and Nadal wins no more Slams).

This isn't going to happen at this point in his career. He shouldn't have wasted 2012-2014 winning one Slam a season. Too late now :|
 
it just showed how unfortunate that nadal is that one player who had to be caught in between two all time greats' dominant periods. if he was born just two years later, i think nadal would have been sitting on 18 or more GS now, with 200 + weeks as world no. 1. but alas that was not to be the case. so he had to learn his trade while federer was dominant, and had his own dominant period "cut short" because djokovic was ascendant.
 
WhiskeyEE said:
I'm equating them to RG titles... feeling generous atm.
Click to expand...

:lol: x 500...

You mean for Nadal don't you? I mean, that's actually how you mean it, isn't it? Brilliant satire.

You're too kind to be giving RG this sort of inflated importance.
 
objectivity said:
it just showed how unfortunate that nadal is that one player who had to be caught in between two all time greats' dominant periods. if he was born just two years later, i think nadal would have been sitting on 18 or more GS now, with 200 + weeks as world no. 1. but alas that was not to be the case. so he had to learn his trade while federer was dominant, and had his own dominant period "cut short" because djokovic was ascendant.
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Federer is more unlucky. It just took a guy playing with the amount of topspin never seen before in the Open Era to stop him. Without him he would have 23 slams, 2 calendar year grand slams and easily 350+ weeks at no.1. Also dozens of big clay titles.

Djokovic wouldn't be the same problem for a prime Federer the way it was for Nadal.
 
I don't think Djokovic can overtake Nadal in overall greatness, if slam counts is at the barometer that is ultimate to all. Nadal's tally of 14 slams probably is going to grow a little bit more yet, but Djokovic can still make a respectable stand himself.

However...things that he can attain over Nadal, that are still within the realms of possibility.

Having a better record than Nadal at three of the four slams. If he wins one more Wimbledon or one more US Open, he moves ahead of Nadal at those slams...it is that close between them there.

Have overall more weeks at number one. I feel this one is likely going to stay true to the end of their careers, Djokovic's consistency throughout the season is staggering and Federer like. Nadal is more injury prone and as result will find it hard to add weeks at number one.

Having more YE#1 - Well, if he stays solid like he is, the overall weeks at number one will go a long way to giving him more YE#1

H2H - He is four behind in the H2H, but these two are destined to meet many many more times yet. With Nadal's continuous injuries and poor form, Djokovic could get him enough times to even and possibly surpass Nadal in the H2H. This is realistic considering how they match up.

Wins at all slams - He is just missing RG. This one will be difficult, since we are talking about Nadal at RG, where he is pretty much Superman. But if Djokovic somehow gets him there, that means he has beaten Fedal at all four slams.

Masters - This is an interesting one, since they are both very good at Masters events. But recently overall, Djokovic is picking them up at a faster rate than Nadal. This could get very close.

So there are certain things that can possibly get over Nadal. But I still think he will end this era in third place, after Federer and Nadal.
 
It was only a matter of time, that Djokovic surpassed Nadal in the weeks at #1. And he deserves it completely, because he has been so much more consistent over the last 4 years.

So congrats and well down Novak. Just slow down a lil bit, buddy. ;)
 
More year end number ones, more weeks at number one, more WTFs titles, More/consecutive quarter finals and semis in slams, more match wins at all slams except RG, more wins against the top 10, should I keep on going?
 
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Top 10 wins:

B8wjdRaCAAIA3pN.jpg:large
 
Hitman said:
I don't think Djokovic can overtake Nadal in overall greatness, if slam counts is at the barometer that is ultimate to all. Nadal's tally of 14 slams probably is going to grow a little bit more yet, but Djokovic can still make a respectable stand himself.

However...things that he can attain over Nadal, that are still within the realms of possibility.

Having a better record than Nadal at three of the four slams. If he wins one more Wimbledon or one more US Open, he moves ahead of Nadal at those slams...it is that close between them there.

Have overall more weeks at number one. I feel this one is likely going to stay true to the end of their careers, Djokovic's consistency throughout the season is staggering and Federer like. Nadal is more injury prone and as result will find it hard to add weeks at number one.

Having more YE#1 - Well, if he stays solid like he is, the overall weeks at number one will go a long way to giving him more YE#1

H2H - He is four behind in the H2H, but these two are destined to meet many many more times yet. With Nadal's continuous injuries and poor form, Djokovic could get him enough times to even and possibly surpass Nadal in the H2H. This is realistic considering how they match up.

Wins at all slams - He is just missing RG. This one will be difficult, since we are talking about Nadal at RG, where he is pretty much Superman. But if Djokovic somehow gets him there, that means he has beaten Fedal at all four slams.

Masters - This is an interesting one, since they are both very good at Masters events. But recently overall, Djokovic is picking them up at a faster rate than Nadal. This could get very close.

So there are certain things that can possibly get over Nadal. But I still think he will end this era in third place, after Federer and Nadal.
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ok let me ask u. suppose djokovic really gets the CYGS this year, would you put him above nadal? above federer? :D
 
Nads should be more concerend about Nole taking over his legacy rather than him (Nads) taking over Fed's. The boy wonder from Mallorca could be relegated to numero 3 in his era if he doesn't pick it up soon.
 
BHud said:
Nads should be more concerend about Nole taking over his legacy rather than him (Nads) taking over Fed's. The boy wonder from Mallorca could be relegated to numero 3 in his era if he doesn't pick it up soon.
Click to expand...

That won't be happening. Get real. :lol:
 
objectivity said:
ok let me ask u. suppose djokovic really gets the CYGS this year, would you put him above nadal? above federer? :D
Click to expand...

No.

Federer and Nadal still stand tall, but Djokovic will close the gap.

Federer and Nadal have some insane numbers on their side, not just the slams.
 
Hitman said:
No.

Federer and Nadal still stand tall, but Djokovic will close the gap.

Federer and Nadal have some insane numbers on their side, not just the slams.
Click to expand...

come on man. i think if djokovic does it, he should > Nadal. CYGS is the rarest of feats in tennis.
 
objectivity said:
come on man. i think if djokovic does it, he should > Nadal. CYGS is the rarest of feats in tennis.
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Nope.

Nadal still has the following.

Three more slams
The greatest dominance of a slam in men's tennis
The greatest dominance of a single surface
The longest single surface winning streak
Olympic Gold
More Masters titles
H2H
Twice holding slams on three different surfaces
Two Channel Slams
The European Clay Slam in 2010
The NA Summer Slam in 2013
 
Hitman said:
Nope.

Nadal still has the following.

Three more slams
The greatest dominance of a slam in men's tennis
The greatest dominance of a single surface
The longest single surface winning streak
Olympic Gold
More Masters titles
H2H
Twice holding slams on three different surfaces
Two Channel Slams
The European Clay Slam in 2010
The NA Summer Slam in 2013
Click to expand...

i personally will rate djokovic > nadal if he really does the CYGS.
 
objectivity said:
i personally will rate djokovic > nadal if he really does the CYGS.
Click to expand...

That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion.

In my opinion Nadal is far ahead, and while I did state that there are some things Djokovic can do to gain ground on Nadal, he won't catch him overall in my opinion. Remember Nadal himself is a moving target, and he'll win more slams for sure, certainly at RG. He can also get the WTF, to complete the set of big trophies, which really does set him apart. It is not out of realm of possibility that Nadal ends up the greatest of this era, by surpassing Federer.

After AO 2012, everyone including myself thought Djokovic was going to be breathing down Nadal's neck, but Nadal just sprinted ahead. I think that sprint is enough to keep the edge now.
 
Hitman said:
That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion.

In my opinion Nadal is far ahead, and while I did state that there are some things Djokovic can do to gain ground on Nadal, he won't catch him overall in my opinion. Remember Nadal himself is a moving target, and he'll win more slams for sure, certainly at RG. He can also get the WTF, to complete the set of big trophies, which really does set him apart. It is not out of realm of possibility that Nadal ends up the greatest of this era, by surpassing Federer.

After AO 2012, everyone including myself thought Djokovic was going to be breathing down Nadal's neck, but Nadal just sprinted ahead. I think that sprint is enough to keep the edge now.
Click to expand...

but frankly i think djokovic has a great chance to get the CYGS this year. probably the best chance since federer in 2006. even better than 2011 when nadal was still good.
 
objectivity said:
but frankly i think djokovic has a great chance to get the CYGS this year. probably the best chance since federer in 2006. even better than 2011 when nadal was still good.
Click to expand...

Honestly, it all depends first on Nadal. We simply cannot count out Nadal at RG, it simply cannot be done. He owns that tournament in a way that has never been seen before. Until he doesn't fall there, I will not even entertain the idea of Djokovic getting the CYGS.
 
IF Djokovic won the CYGS, would he be greater than Nadal??

What would the impact of that actually be? How much would people really value the CYGS??

#PipeDreams
 
Hitman said:
Honestly, it all depends first on Nadal. We simply cannot count out Nadal at RG, it simply cannot be done. He owns that tournament in a way that has never been seen before. Until he doesn't fall there, I will not even entertain the idea of Djokovic getting the CYGS.
Click to expand...

I think Monte Carlo and Rome will give us a good gauge.
 
objectivity said:
I think Monte Carlo and Rome will give us a good gauge.
Click to expand...

It will give a little idea, but remind me what happened in the clay season last year leading up to RG. The dimensions of the court at the French Open are just heaven for Nadal. He is afforded more luxury to move more freely around the back of the court, than he does at Rome, meaning less balls get past him. Also the trajectory of some of his shots are amplifed on that court due to how he can move around on it, and how he can move his opponent around.
 
Hitman said:
It will give a little idea, but remind me what happened in the clay season last year leading up to RG. The dimensions of the court at the French Open are just heaven for Nadal. He is afforded more luxury to move more freely around the back of the court, than he does at Rome, meaning less balls get past him. Also the trajectory of some of his shots are amplifed on that court due to how he can move around on it, and how he can move his opponent around.
Click to expand...

but the clay season will also give us a gauge of novak's level. which wasn't that great last season.

anyway i am really worried. and you know how much of a nadal fan i am.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
IF Djokovic won the CYGS, would he be greater than Nadal??

What would the impact of that actually be? How much would people really value the CYGS??

#PipeDreams
Click to expand...

It obviously won't happen but even if Nole did achieve the CYGS I'm not sure I'd place him above Nadal. I think he'd need to get to at least 12 slams(provided Nadal stays on 14) to have a good argument taking into account he'd also have more WTFs, weeks at #1 and YE#1.
 
RF-18 said:
Top 10 wins:

B8wjdRaCAAIA3pN.jpg:large
Click to expand...
Quite surprising that Lendl and in particularly Connors are not higher on this list considering they are both 80+ % in terms of winning percentage and they've played more matches than everyone else.

->>> conclusion: On average, they met far fewer top ten players than the current generation and, in Connors case, did worse against top-10 (50 % winning percentage, 64 for Lendl).
 
Djokovic2011 said:
It obviously won't happen but even if Nole did achieve the CYGS I'm not sure I'd place him above Nadal. I think he'd need to get to at least 12 slams(provided Nadal stays on 14) to have a good argument taking into account he'd also have more WTFs, weeks at #1 and YE#1.
Click to expand...

I think some of it would depend on how he achieves it if he were to. He could for example defeat Nadal in the RG final, Federer in the Wimbledon final and Nadal in the US Open final. Then he'd have 3 more wins against legendary players in Slam finals and will definitely surpass 200 weeks at #1 and have 4 YE#1. That's a serious argument which for some might overcome the Slam and overall titles discrepancy.

I'd need to really think about it, let's put it that way.
 
objectivity said:
but the clay season will also give us a gauge of novak's level. which wasn't that great last season.

anyway i am really worried. and you know how much of a nadal fan i am.
Click to expand...

Yes, I agree we do need to see where Djokovic's level is also.

And I can appreciate that you worried, it just shows that you are fan. Nothing wrong about that.
 
Chanwan said:
Quite surprising that Lendl and Connors are not higher on this list considering they are both 80+ % in terms of winning percentage and they've played more matches than everyone else.

->>> conclusion: On average, they met far fewer top ten players than the current generation.
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I think some data is missing...

The figures are probably only reliable for since 1990 ish.
 
objectivity said:
come on man. i think if djokovic does it, he should > Nadal. CYGS is the rarest of feats in tennis.
Click to expand...
If Wawrinka does it next year and wins no other slams before or after, would you put him above Djoko, Agassi, Lendl, Connors etc?

I sure wouldn't. It's rare, but a lot of players have been relatively close. It's not the be all and end all arguments.
 
Chanwan said:
If Wawrinka does it next year and wins no other slams before or after, would you put him above Djoko, Agassi, Lendl, Connors etc?

I sure wouldn't. It's rare, but a lot of players have been relatively close. It's not the be all and end all arguments.
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come on, if stan does it, he has 5 GS. djokovic would have 11. BIG DIFFERENCE.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
I think some data is missing...

The figures are probably only reliable for since 1990 ish.
Click to expand...
Possibly.
But since 1990 cannot be the case as both have played 160+ matches vs. top-10 for the stats in question, Lendl around 180.

While it seems somewhat low for their careers, didn't Connors play A LOT of 250 equivalent tournaments, presumably with little opposition from top-10'ers?
objectivity said:
come on, if stan does it, he has 5 GS. djokovic would have 11. BIG DIFFERENCE.
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I'm comparing Stan to the ones with 8-9 slams. You're comparing Djoko at 11 slams with the ones with 14.

Give Wawa another, i.e. at 6. Is he above the ones, currently Lendl, Connors, Agassi and Djoko, with 8-9?
 
Chanwan said:
Possibly.
But since 1990 cannot be the case as both have played 160+ matches vs. top-10 for the stats in question, Lendl around 180.

While it seems somewhat low for their careers, didn't Connors play A LOT of 250 equivalent tournaments, presumably with little opposition from top-10'ers?

I'm comparing Stan to the ones with 8-9 slams. You're comparing Djoko at 11 slams with the ones with 14.

Give Wawa another, i.e. at 6. Is he above the ones, currently Lendl, Connors, Agassi and Djoko, with 8-9?
Click to expand...


I can't remember the specifics but just know that in other threads it was already basically established that there is missing data. I haven't been able to look into it specifically myself though... just don't trust the list entirely, at least for now. There were other posters with greater knowledge of the period and stronger opinions on the subject but unfortunately I can't remember the threads, so can't link you to them.
 
Nathaniel_Near said:
I can't remember the specifics but just know that in other threads it was already basically established that there is missing data. I haven't been able to look into it specifically myself though... just don't trust the list entirely, at least for now.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I've read similar stuff and was too young to follow them much at the time. Could be the reason why they've played comparatively fewer top-10'ers.
 
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