Djokovic trails Federer 16-17 in BO3

Kralingen said:
When Federer had the stamina to really match him from the baseline and commit to longer rallies, Djokovic really struggled to hit through him, even at his absolute peak.
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Federer was always more skilled than Djokovic (& Nadal), thats been his USP against them while their USP has been their physicality and age advantage. In the end the numbers show the latter USP won over the former but if all of them were aged same, then perhaps Federer's skill would have trumped over their physicality.
 
Razer said:
Federer was always more skilled than Djokovic (& Nadal), thats been his USP against them while their USP has been their physicality and age advantage. In the end the numbers show the latter USP won over the former but if all of them were aged same, then perhaps Federer's skill would have trumped over their physicality.
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no, peak fed in his own era had negative h2h vs both muzza and rafa! he was always behind rafa. and he had an advantage vs nole just in the beginning, when nole was to young and stil had a lot to improve. had they have the same age it would just go worst for fed! 17 to 20 are not better tennis age than 22 to 25!
 
socallefty said:
Federer won more than 83% of his tour matches in 8 out of 10 years between 2011-2019. Contrary to TTW memes, he didn’t get worse all of a sudden and kept up his excellence through his thirties. He was almost on par with Djokovic on most surfaces during this period. He also made ground in the H-H against Nadal during this decade compared to the one prior when he was younger.
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TRUE! Federer dominated Rafa, off clay, from 2017 on.
 
timnz said:
Think US Open Semi's 2010 and US Open Semi's 2011 and Wimbledon Final 2019 - Federer led and had match point at all of these. So it could have swung extremely easy the other way.
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As I recall 2007 Novak had set points in two sets against Fed at the USO. A couple of points there and all of a sudden you have Novak ahead 2-0. Could have easily been a very different result.

many matches are very close, even when the overall scoreline doesn’t show it.
 
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GoatNo1 said:
no, peak fed in his own era had negative h2h vs both muzza and rafa! he was always behind rafa. and he had an advantage vs nole just in the beginning, when nole was to young and stil had a lot to improve. had they have the same age it would just go worst for fed! 17 to 20 are not better tennis age than 22 to 25!
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Murray was never an issue in BO5 and the Nadal h2h had a heavy clay skew in those early years. 0 meetings at Indian wells, Cincy, Canada, USO, Madrid indoors or Basel. Admittedly the Dubai loss in 06 is a bad one but Nadal played incredibly well that day.

If they’re the same age it gets worse for Djokovic as he won’t have the physical advantage in all those later Wimbledon matches. I doubt he passes 3 titles there with same age Federer around.
 
GabeT said:
As I recall 2007 Novak had set points in two sets against Fed at the USO. A couple of pints there and all of a sudden you have Novak ahead 2-0. Could have easily been a very different result.

many matches are very close, even when the overall scoreline doesn’t show it.
Click to expand...
I suspect federer would’ve gone up a couple of gears had he lost the 1st set and the 2nd plays out differently.
 
fedfan24 said:
I suspect federer would’ve gone up a couple of gears had he lost the 1st set and the 2nd plays out differently.
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Maybe. maybe not. If I had told you that Fed would three times have double match points against Djokovic at a slam yet lose them all you would have not believed it. There’s a reason why we play the matches.

my only point there was to highlight how very small differences can have large impacts on outcomes
 
fedfan24 said:
Murray was never an issue in BO5 and the Nadal h2h had a heavy clay skew in those early years. 0 meetings at Indian wells, Cincy, Canada, USO, Madrid indoors or Basel. Admittedly the Dubai loss in 06 is a bad one but Nadal played incredibly well that day.

If they’re the same age it gets worse for Djokovic as he won’t have the physical advantage in all those later Wimbledon matches. I doubt he passes 3 titles there with same age Federer around.
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feds era 04-09, fed vs rafa:
all matces: 7-13
HC: 3-3
CC: 2-9
GC: 2-1
 
fedfan24 said:
Thanks for backing up my point with this data. 11 matches on clay vs 9 on HC/grass.
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it is not "backing upp your point"!!!!!!

fed won 18% matches on clay and just 55% outside of clay! it is not that he lost 80% on clay and won 80% outside!

with that % he would have negative h2h even if they played just 1/3 on clay. if they played 30 matches and if they played 10 on clay rafa should win 8 on clay and 9 outside and fed should win 2 on clay and 11 outside. rafa should still have a 17 - 13 lead!

rafa and nole played 28 matches on clay and 31 matches outside of clay and nole still have 30-29 h2h (with his % in his peak shoul fed on 60 matches like this have won max 22, 5/28 on CC, 3/4 on GC and 14/28 on HC). factum is that nole has better W% vs rafa on clay (8-20, 29%) than rafa vs him on HC (7-20, 26%) and they played more on clay than HC. fed in his peak years have a disaster h2h vs rafa on clay (2-9, 18%) and still just 50% on HC (3-3)!
 
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ND-13 said:
Till 2010 USO, Djokovic trailed 4-6.

Post 2010 USO, when Djokovic started getting the better of RF (mono or otherwise) in BO5 , the BO3 h2h is 12-11.

What it tells us ?
Click to expand...
It tells us that neither player had a tactical advantage the way Nadal (and for a long time, Murray) did over Fed. The real gap in the H2H was just Djokovic having Wilanders of steel when it mattered.
 
ND-13 said:
Till 2010 USO, Djokovic trailed 4-6.

Post 2010 USO, when Djokovic started getting the better of RF (mono or otherwise) in BO5 , the BO3 h2h is 12-11.

What it tells us ?
Click to expand...

It tells us:
1. OP couldn't even nail the simplest stat, lol. It's actually 16-16, plus a WO win for Nole.
2. The H2H stands at 27-23 for Nole. The OP emphasizes BO3, then what about BO5?
3. Of course Fed is a legend, weeks at @#1: Nole 425+, Fed 310, they are the top two in OE, the real big picture.
......
 
Cabeza del Demonio said:
It tells us that neither player had a tactical advantage the way Nadal (and for a long time, Murray) did over Fed. The real gap in the H2H was just Djokovic having Wilanders of steel when it mattered.
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Ohh yeah, Murray the tactical genius and titan of the game having an edge over Federer in Fed's peak.... sure, why not ? :rolleyes:
 
Kralingen said:
Excellent post. I actually think Fed had a bit more variety in his path to victory than just the Shanghai/Cincy offensive blitzkriegs though. In fact, an overlooked part of the Bo3 vs Bo5 dynamic is how important Fed’s defense actually was in the matchup.

If you look at his biggest wins, Fed could turn Djokovic’s serve and BH-to-BH into a black hole with his slice defense that refused to leak attackable balls for Novak off the normal BH to BH routine. Even as late as WB 2012 he gave Novak fits with his blocked return and slice. Djokovic is not some agency-less backboard, he prefers to attack and methodically move Fed around. Fed actually frustrated him quite well in some of these Bo3 matches and often for long periods in Bo5, just couldn’t sustain the requisite baseline intensity for 4 hours.

It’s staggering to me how often Fed’s defense was actually the difference maker in his wins. When Federer had the stamina to really match him from the baseline and commit to longer rallies, Djokovic really struggled to hit through him, even at his absolute peak.
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Man speaking of the Federer slice defense, you could see how much it frustrated Djokovic as late as 2019 Wimbledon. So much of Federer’s late 5th set attempt to break again was set up by incredible slices despite his movement deteriorating rapidly that Djokovic simply couldn’t attack, and Fed would follow up with an aggressive forehand. He had a bp at 11 all in the 5th where he hit a fantastic short chip return off an aggressive 1st serve which drew Djokovic to net where he hit a terrible approach shot. That really was the moment to go for the kill, but Fed hit the pass straight back to Djokovic for an easy volley.
 
InsuranceMan said:
Actually I’m pretty sure he is a Djokovic fan look at his username

“ND-13” the ND suggests Novak Djokovic. He’s just sharing a discussion
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nd is never in doubt i.e. nadal never in doubt goat..he meant
 
fedfan24 said:
Thanks for backing up my point with this data. 11 matches on clay vs 9 on HC/grass.
Click to expand...
some more comparison

Fed in his era (04-09) vs Rafa:
total: 7-13, 35%
HC: 3-3, 50%
CC: 2-9, 18%
GC: 2-1, 67%
...
CC matches: 11/20, 55%

No1e in his era (since 2011) vs Rafa:
total: 23-13, 64%
HC: 13-2, 87%
CC: 8-11, 42%
GC: 2-0, 100%
...
CC matches: 19/36, 53%

EDIT: No1e 2.0 in his mini era (11-16) vs Rafa:
total: 19-7, 73%
HC: 11-2, 85%
CC: 7-5, 58%
GC: 1-0, 100%
...
CC matches: 12/26, 46%

No1e and Fed vs Rafa in Rafas "era" (08-13):
total: 15-16, 48% xxx 4-14, 22%
HC: 11-5, 69% xxx 3-6, 33%
CC: 3-10, 23% xxx 1-7, 13%
GC: 1-1, 50% xxx 0-1, 0%
...
CC matches: 13/31, 42% xxx 8/18, 44%
 
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RS said:
Murray BH's flying past Roddick in there hypothetical peak encounters.
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Razer said:
Ohh yeah, Murray the tactical genius and titan of the game having an edge over Federer in Fed's peak.... sure, why not ? :rolleyes:
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I never said Murray was better than Fed. But he sure knew how to make Federer play like dog crap, time after time. Remember the H2H was 6-2 for Andy at the end of Fed's prime. The split between BO5 and BO3 was clear as day.

Djokovic never had that kind of consistent dominance over Fed until 2016 and on. By that point, Djokovic was just the better player, full stop. Murray was scoring those wins over Fed when he was still rising into the top 5 and Fed was still #1.

Have we just all collectively forgotten how good Murray was?
 
Slam h2h is bad though. Fed stood out well at USO 3 consecutive year. Okay loss at AO.
Djokovic is not unbeatable in any slam other than AO. So lets exclude AO eventhough he should have done better in 2011 and 2008 and never took him to 5.

Losing 2 in a row after having MP at USO, Losing 3 times in your court is just bad.

Federer made Djokovic look as good or better than he is. Murray beat Djokovic in straights year before but Fed lost to Djokovic in 2014 who was just 1 time champion at the time.

While consistent, Djokovic is very beatable at USO as Nadal and Murray Nishikori, other guys later showed but Fed didn't manage to do it in 2015 and 2010/2011. Because Federer himself was not good at USO overall last decade.
 
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Phenomenal said:
Slam h2h is bad though. Fed stood out well at USO 3 consecutive year. Okay loss at AO.
Djokovic is not unbeatable in any slam other than AO. So lets exclude AO eventhough he could have done better in 2011 and 2008 and never took him to 5.

Losing 2 in a row after having MP at USO, Losing 3 times in your court is just bad.

Federer made Djokovic look as good or better than he is. Murray beat Djokovic in straights year before but Fed lost to Djokovic in 2014 who was just 1 time champion at the time.

While consistent, Djokovic is very beatable at USO as Nadal and Murray Nishikori, other guys later showed but Fed didn't manage to do it in 2015 and 2010/2011. Because Federer himself was not good at USO overall last decade.
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Sure, let's also exclude RG when we talk about Nadal's Slam matchups then :)
 
Leave competition aside Fed is just simply not as good as Nadal and Djokovic in their 30's but he has himself to blame for those losses at USO and Wimbledon.
Djokovic stole some wins even when he is not in his best like 2010 USO maybe 2008 AO and 2014 Wimbledon aswell. Fed didn't stole any win other than 2011 RG maybe his last win in 2012.

We all know Fed is better than Djokovic at Wimbledon and USO. but h2h is 3-1 for Djokovic at Wimbledon and 3-3 at USO.
All of them combined and when you are not as good in your 30's and also not good in your teenage years but especially in 30's without consistency it's no surprise he ends where he is but again due to those 1 points.
 
Cabeza del Demonio said:
I never said Murray was better than Fed. But he sure knew how to make Federer play like dog crap, time after time. Remember the H2H was 6-2 for Andy at the end of Fed's prime. The split between BO5 and BO3 was clear as day.

Djokovic never had that kind of consistent dominance over Fed until 2016 and on. By that point, Djokovic was just the better player, full stop. Murray was scoring those wins over Fed when he was still rising into the top 5 and Fed was still #1.

Have we just all collectively forgotten how good Murray was?
Click to expand...
nole vs fed h2h 11-16:
total: 17-9, 65%
HC: 12-6, 67%
CC: 3-2, 60%
GC: 2-1, 67%

muzza vs fed h2h by the end of 2009:
total: 6-4, 60% all on HC

dominant 6-1 periods before 2016:

27-05-2012Roland GarrosClaySFNovak Djokovic (1) d. Roger Federer (3)6-4 7-5 6-3
13-05-2012Rome MastersClaySFNovak Djokovic (1) d. Roger Federer (3)6-2 7-6(4)
29-08-2011US OpenHardSFNovak Djokovic (1) d. Roger Federer (3)6-7(7) 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5
22-05-2011Roland GarrosClaySFRoger Federer (3) d. Novak Djokovic (2)7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)
10-03-2011Indian Wells MastersHardSFNovak Djokovic (3) d. Roger Federer (2)6-3 3-6 6-2
21-02-2011DubaiHardFNovak Djokovic (2) d. Roger Federer (1)6-3 6-3
17-01-2011Australian OpenHardSFNovak Djokovic (3) d. Roger Federer (2)7-6(3) 7-5 6-4

12-03-2009Indian Wells MastersHardSFAndy Murray (4) d. Roger Federer (2)6-3 4-6 6-1
05-01-2009DohaHardSFAndy Murray (3) d. Roger Federer (2)6-7(6) 6-2 6-2
09-11-2008Masters CupHard (i)RRAndy Murray d. Roger Federer4-6 7-6(3) 7-5
12-10-2008Madrid MastersHard (i)SFAndy Murray (4) d. Roger Federer (2)3-6 6-3 7-5
25-08-2008US OpenHardFRoger Federer (2) d. Andy Murray (6)6-2 7-5 6-2
03-03-2008DubaiHardR32Andy Murray d. Roger Federer (1)6-7(6) 6-3 6-4
14-08-2006Cincinnati MastersHardR32Andy Murray d. Roger Federer (1)7-5 6-4
 
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fedfan24 said:
I think Federer is the better more skilled player, Djokovic kinda grinded him down until fed got too old to hang in bo5, aided by a few lucky escapes ala 40-15. The better player / team doesn’t always win, look at Chelsea’s CL run in 2012. Barcelona and Bayern were technically light years ahead of them but they grinded out the wins through sheer determination. That’s sport.

BO3 amplified the skill difference, fed can dust him off in 2 maybe 3 sets with his attacking game, unless it’s a slow court like rome, Indian wells etc. even Paris 2018 was another Houdini act from Djokovic to clutch the win.

BO5, other things come into play, slam pressure, stamina, speed, shot tolerance.
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Djokovic is lucky to be the youngest in the Big 3, otherwise, he wouldn't have all those records.
:D
 
GoatNo1 said:
it is not "backing upp your point"!!!!!!

fed won 18% matches on clay and just 55% outside of clay! it is not that he lost 80% on clay and won 80% outside!

with that % he would have negative h2h even if they played just 1/3 on clay. if they played 30 matches and if they played 10 on clay rafa should win 8 on clay and 9 outside and fed should win 2 on clay and 11 outside. rafa should still have a 17 - 13 lead!

rafa and nole played 28 matches on clay and 31 matches outside of clay and nole still have 30-29 h2h (with his % in his peak shoul fed on 60 matches like this have won max 22, 5/28 on CC, 3/4 on GC and 14/28 on HC). factum is that nole has better W% vs rafa on clay (8-20, 29%) than rafa vs him on HC (7-20, 26%) and they played more on clay than HC. fed in his peak years have a disaster h2h vs rafa on clay (2-9, 18%) and still just 50% on HC (3-3)!
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Not sure this is the “own” you think it is? Nadal was better than fed directly on clay and slow hc, Federer on faster hc, grass and indoors. The h2h reflects this for the most part. Still unsure what your point was other than proving the clay skewed h2h.
 
GoatNo1 said:
some more comparison

Fed in his era (04-09) vs Rafa:
total: 7-13, 35%
HC: 3-3, 50%
CC: 2-9, 18%
GC: 2-1, 67%
...
CC matches: 11/20, 55%

No1e in his era (since 2011) vs Rafa:
total: 23-13, 64%
HC: 13-2, 87%
CC: 8-11, 42%
GC: 2-0, 100%
...
CC matches: 19/36, 53%

EDIT: No1e 2.0 in his mini era (11-16) vs Rafa:
total: 19-7, 73%
HC: 11-2, 85%
CC: 7-5, 58%
GC: 1-0, 100%
...
CC matches: 12/26, 46%

No1e and Fed vs Rafa in Rafas "era" (08-13):
total: 15-16, 48% xxx 4-14, 22%
HC: 11-5, 69% xxx 3-6, 33%
CC: 3-10, 23% xxx 1-7, 13%
GC: 1-1, 50% xxx 0-1, 0%
...
CC matches: 13/31, 42% xxx 8/18, 44%
Click to expand...
Thanks once more for providing the data to prove my point, cheers bud.
 
TMF said:
Djokovic is the GOOAT
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LMAO no, Djokovic will never be the GOAT.
As I have emphasised objectively and accurately in one of my previous threads:
Sinner is miles better than Djokovic on hard
Nadal, Borg, Tsitsipas and Ruud are miles better than Djokovic on clay
Federer and Sampras are better than Djokovic on grass
Those 24 Slams mean nothing if vast majority of them were won against weak era opponents.
It's over.
 
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