Djokovic v Nadal - Race to YE#1 2018

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
In the interest of full disclosure, this is purely for my own enjoyment of numbers. I do not consider these to be the only contenders for YE#1, just the ones I happen to be examining. If you would like another thread examining another player against Nadal, feel free to ask- I like doing it.

Nadal's race total: 6760 7480
Djokovic: 3445 4445 6445

Djokovic has roughly half the points of Nadal so far. It isn't looking good for his chances at YE#1, but let's take a look at how many are left on the board.

Of tournaments they are even somewhat likely to participate in, several remain:
Cincinnati (1000)
US Open (2000)
Beijing (500)
Shanghai (1000)
Basel/Vienna (500)
Paris (1000)
ATP Final (1500)

For a total of 6500 points left on the board.
Unless Novak makes up the deficit of points in these tournaments, Nadal ends the year at #1 (assuming no other contenders).

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1. DJOKOVIC 2015 v. NADAL 2017

In the first scenario I'm going to assume Nadal plays on par with his 2017 season, excluding the US Open and ATP finals, which I plan to calculate at the end.

Nadal played Beijing, but not Basel or Vienna. This means Nadal's expected point total excluding the US Open or WTF is 8040.

In Djokovic's 2015, he won 2 masters, got a final in the 3rd, and played and won 1 500 event. That means 3100 points, putting Djokovic at 6545 points.

That means a 1995 point deficit must be overcome in the WTF and US Open. Conventional wisdom tells us Nadal should do alright at the WTF, perhaps a 2-1 RR and a semifinal loss for 400 points. If Djokovic wins undefeated, he gets 1500 points.

The total before we factor in the US Open is 8045 points for Djokovic compared to Nadal's 8440. Simply put, Djokovic must make the SF of the US Open or he fails to get #1. If Nadal makes the SF, Djokovic must make the F. If Nadal makes the F, Djokovic has to win.

.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Cincinnati (1000).....W......................................Absent
US Open (2000)........W...................................SF
Beijing (500)...............Absent....................Absent
Shanghai (1000)........SF....................................Absent
Basel/Vienna (500)..Absent.........................Absent
Paris (1000).................F...................................QF
ATP Final (1500)........F (1 L)........................SF (1 L)

Any worse than this and Novak cannot get #1.

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2. DJOKOVIC 2015 v. NADAL 2013

Nadal in 2013 reached the SF of Shanghai & Paris and the F of Beijing and the WTF. That gave him 2020 points. Adding that to his total gives us 8780.

If Novak won every event and did not play Basel or Vienna, as he normally doesn't, he would earn 5000 points for a total of 8445, 335 behind Nadal. Djokovic would then need to get to at least the QF. If Nadal makes the QF, Novak must make the SF. And so on. In effect, Djokovic must outperform Nadal once again, but with even an even more ridiculous record.

.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Cincinnati (1000).....W....................................Absent
US Open (2000)........W...................................SF
Beijing (500)...............W....................................F
Shanghai (1000)........F....................................SF
Basel/Vienna (500)..Absent.........................Absent
Paris (1000).................F...................................SF
ATP Final (1500)........W (0 L)........................F (1 L)

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3. DJOKOVIC ??? and NADAL INJURED

If Nadal stays at 6760 points, how well would Novak need to perform to beat him?

Simply put, Novak needs 3315 points. In 2016 he earned 2740. If he gets a final in Cincinnati and matches his 2016 form, he only just BARELY edges Nadal for #1. Maybe a little wiggle room if he plays Beijing as well.

.........................................Novak...........................Nadal
Cincinnati (1000).....W......................................Absent
US Open (2000)........W......................................SF
Beijing (500)...............SF......................................Absent
Shanghai (1000)........SF...................................Absent
Basel/Vienna (500)..Absent.........................Absent
Paris (1000).................QF..................................Absent
ATP Final (1500)........SF (1 L)..........................Absent

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll keep this updated as the next few tournaments progress.

Update after US Open: Djokovic is much less of an outside threat and more a very real contender for the #1 title by the end of the year. If he snatches it then, he's got a death grip on it for the next year.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update 9/19 - Nadal confirms withdrawal from Beijing and Shanghai. Drops 1100 points and gives Djokovic chance to catch up by Paris. Looking better for Djokovic than Nadal at this point.
 
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My prediction is that Djokovic needs to be within about 1,500 points of Nadal after the U.S. Open to have a realistic chance at finishing year-end #1 (barring a Nadal injury).
 
It is literally insane to me that there are 4500 points up for grabs post-USO. That's the same as the summer hc season and more than the grass season.

There should be, AT MOST, 3000 points (500+ 1000 + 1500), and even that's a lot imo.
 
MichaelNadal said:
Not gonna happen :p
Click to expand...

If Djokovic makes the Cincinnati finals and wins the U.S. Open, he would be at 6,045 points. Nadal is currently at 6,760 points, so, with a U.S. Open SF, he'd be at 7,480, meaning a 1,435 point lead. So, there are scenarios where Djokovic is in a decent position to finish year-end #1 after the U.S. Open, but all of them involve Djokovic winning the U.S. Open.
 
I doubt Djokovic's 2018 season (from Cincy to WTF) will play out anything like his 2015. I feel the YE#1 is Nadal's to lose, with Djokovic, Federer, Zverev and Del Potro battling it out for No2.
 
From the moment I saw the OP and the title I knew this would be BS. Djokovic will be fortunate to add 1,500 points more until the end of 2018
 
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Djokovic and Federer need either an early exit from USO for Rafa with a deep run themselves with a Cincy win or Nadal to simply get injured. Can’t see it happening. Back injury or not playing any clay cost Fed last year.
 
NBP said:
LMAO from the moment I saw the OP and the title I knew this would be BS. Djokovic will be fortunate to add 1,500 points more until the end of 2018
Click to expand...
How is this any more realistic with three Masters, US Open and WTF points still up for grabs? He is not going to lose early in all of them.

For the record I don't see him catching Nadal any time soon but you went to a whole other extreme.
 
FrontHeadlock said:
It is literally insane to me that there are 4500 points up for grabs post-USO. That's the same as the summer hc season and more than the grass season.

There should be, AT MOST, 3000 points (500+ 1000 + 1500), and even that's a lot imo.
Click to expand...
In my ideal world, the only tournament after the USO would be the Tour Finals. The final slam should actually feel like the season is actually coming to an end. Give these guys a real off season like every other sport.

But I understand why it can't happen.
 
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
How is this any more realistic with three Masters, US Open and WTF points still up for grabs? He is not going to lose early in all of them.

For the record I don't see him catching Nadal any time soon but you went to a whole other extreme.
Click to expand...
I'm still yet to be convinced by him. I know it sounds strange considering he just won a slam, but he lacks power and intensity. I always believed he'd start performing better through the Asian swing and indoors, and baring Wimbledon, it seems that it may end up being that way. He will not end #1, that is a pipe dream by people who are still yet to learn to be realistic, but he should finish top 3.
 
NBP said:
From the moment I saw the OP and the title I knew this would be BS. Djokovic will be fortunate to add 1,500 points more until the end of 2018
Click to expand...

Djokovic has a very decent chance to make at least 600 points only from Cincy.

What you are saying is that he would barely win any matches after that till the end of the year.

8-)
 
NBP said:
From the moment I saw the OP and the title I knew this would be BS. Djokovic will be fortunate to add 1,500 points more until the end of 2018
Click to expand...
Hey, I resent that. I said it myself in the OP - "ridiculous record"s would be needed for Djokovic to catch up. He'd need a 2015-like season and Nadal would need to play not-so-great.
 
Djokovic will finish year ranked 5-8

Despite winning Wimbledon he is still not showing enough to convince me that he could return (not even close) to his 2015 form. Simply put, he is a different player, his game did change quite a bit. Lots of QF and maybe a SF or two. No more wins this year !

I hope I am wrong, would love to see him perform at the 2015/16 (alien like) level, that was the best tennis I have ever seen anybody plays. He just set the bar too high.
 
MeatTornado said:
In my ideal world, the only tournament after the USO would be the Tour Finals. The final slam should actually feel like the season is actually coming to an end. Give these guys a real off season like every other sport.

But I understand why it can't happen.
Click to expand...

Agreed. would be nice for players to qualify for the WTF on the basis of USO performance as opposed to some BS run in Paris because no one important really cares.
 
pasta said:
Djokovic will finish year ranked 5-8

Despite winning Wimbledon he is still not showing enough to convince me that he could return (not even close) to his 2015 form. Simply put, he is a different player, his game did change quite a bit. Lots of QF and maybe a SF or two. No more wins this year !

I hope I am wrong, would love to see him perform at the 2015/16 (alien like) level, that was the best tennis I have ever seen anybody plays. He just set the bar too high.
Click to expand...

You seem to be confusing YE #1 with the world ranking, which is not the same thing.
 
Let's see first if Djokovic can win Cinci.

If he does, he is in a decent position to still take YE #1.

That said, if Fed wins Cinci, he is in a much better position than Djokovic for the YE#1 and it would be silly to discount his chances I think.
 
Good analysis, though it's hard to see Novak reaching his 2015 - first half of 2016 level. He's not there yet, and short of a Cincy/US double, I don't see him too close to it yet. I realize he played superbly to defeat Rafa at Wimbledon, and his forst 2 sets in the final versus Anderson were also brilliant.
Yet in all fairness, he was great from 2011-2016, and very good for a few years before that. Right now, with Zverev not looking ready to take that next step, all of the Big 3 have a shot at YE#1, and unsurprisingly, as much as I like and respect Novak, Rafa is in best position to achieve it, followed by Fed, and then Novak.
 
How many points roughly do people feel Rafa needs to be YE world number 1? Obviously if he wins US Open it is game over but lets presume he doesn't...
 
It is interesting, but why does everyone think that Djokovic is suddenly going to win everything? LOL
The guy has won 1 tournament, albeit the biggest in tennis, but hes still not consistent.
It would take something unbelievable for a 30+ year old Djokovic to come back into his best form again and win most of these tournaments.
I really don't think he is capable. People need to accept that players aren't their 2 years ago selves anymore.
Nadal doesn't need to worry about all that, Djokovic wont be winning Cinci, USO, WTF, Shanghai and Beijing LOL Maybe 1 or 2, but there are plenty of guys more than capable of winning these.
 
irishnadalfan1983 said:
How many points roughly do people feel Rafa needs to be YE world number 1? Obviously if he wins US Open it is game over but lets presume he doesn't...
Click to expand...

It really depends. For instance, if the same player wins Cincinnati, Shanghai, and Paris, Nadal would need a bunch of points. If those titles are split among three players, Nadal would need many fewer points. I think the picture becomes a lot clearer after the U.S. Open. If Nadal wins the U.S. Open, it's tough to see him not finishing year-end #1. If Federer, Djokovic, Cilic, del Potro, or Zverev wins the U.S. Open, I think it's down to Nadal and the U.S. Open winner for year-end #1 (and possibly a third player if that player wins Cincinnati and makes the U.S. Open F or SF).
 
Unlikely Novak ends as number 1 now unless Nadal skips some big events, but there's 2 things i will bring up.

1. Draw may be key. Novak being ranked at 10, let's say he actually draws Nadal in the quarters of the USO and beats him and goes on to win, then he's not only done the best he can but stopped Nadal getting at least runners up points.

2. If Nole is playing well, Fed could be Nadal's trump card. Technically either Fed or Nole could finish number one, but not if they both win big titles. The winners points need to go to one of them. Hence if Nole wins the USO but Fed wins the WTF or vice versa, neither of them makes enough to overtake.
 
All the people who think Djokovic won't be Ye#1, he could win the UsOpen and then it wouldn't be hard. As far as I'm concerned he is still the favorite at the Open, given his game at hardcourts and that he's just won the last slam.

Also Fed could finish the year as #1, assuming he wins the UsOpen.
 
Djokovic or Federer must win the US Open to have a chance at YE1. If the US Open winner is anyone else, Nadal will keep the 1st place by the end of this season.
 
Unless Rafa doesn't play a tournament post US Open, he has the YE#1 sewn up. Actually think Zverev has a better chance than Djokovic of challenging the top spot
 
Enceladus said:
Djokovic or Federer must win the US Open to have a chance at YE1. If the US Open winner is anyone else, Nadal will keep the 1st place by the end of this season.
Click to expand...

I could see Federer having a decent chance at year-end #1 by winning Cincinnati and making the U.S. Open final (assuming it's not Nadal who beats him in the final). That would put Federer at 6,220 points. Let's say Nadal loses in the U.S. Open QF. He'd be at 7,120 points. That would be doable.
 
buscemi said:
It really depends. For instance, if the same player wins Cincinnati, Shanghai, and Paris, Nadal would need a bunch of points. If those titles are split among three players, Nadal would need many fewer points. I think the picture becomes a lot clearer after the U.S. Open. If Nadal wins the U.S. Open, it's tough to see him not finishing year-end #1. If Federer, Djokovic, Cilic, del Potro, or Zverev wins the U.S. Open, I think it's down to Nadal and the U.S. Open winner for year-end #1 (and possibly a third player if that player wins Cincinnati and makes the U.S. Open F or SF).
Click to expand...

Of course it does! I am asking for people to speculate/make a guess :)

It is over if he wins US Open for definite.....I am thinking another 2,500 points should swing it for him irrespective of him winning US Open....That brings him to roughly 9,200....
 
ewiewp said:
Will he get 6+ YE#1's? (if Rafa fights hard and get the 5th this year)

How about Djokovic's chance to do 5+ YE#1's ?
Click to expand...

Don't know, way too early to predict 2019. Comes down to his health, but if he can yet again arrive at the slams in great shape and play no more than 5-6 masters while being succesful at them, why not
 
I love to watch good tennis Could be 1 against a rook. Seems many of you are more concerned with a player then tennis? Tough way to live
 
Servevic could make a good year ending indoors, his current game suitable.
So Rafa better make the most out of season before indoor starts ;)

Having that said, Rafa had one of his best indoor seasons last year, and he could do better there this year. His scheduling this year could make him last longer.
 
chicagodude said:
You seem to be confusing YE #1 with the world ranking, which is not the same thing.
Click to expand...
You are correct, I thought that after the London, YE#1 is the same as ATP World Ranking #1.

I thought that points are accumulated only for 1 year back ... which would make YE#1 also an ATP #1 ranked player !? After the London tournament.

Honestly, I am confused about this ...
 
irishnadalfan1983 said:
How many points roughly do people feel Rafa needs to be YE world number 1? Obviously if he wins US Open it is game over but lets presume he doesn't...
Click to expand...
If Federer wins Cincy and USO then things get tight. Federer will be favoured after that he has events like Basel,Shanghai,WTF. I think 10000 points could seal it for Nadal.
 
pasta said:
Djokovic will finish year ranked 5-8

Despite winning Wimbledon he is still not showing enough to convince me that he could return (not even close) to his 2015 form. Simply put, he is a different player, his game did change quite a bit. Lots of QF and maybe a SF or two. No more wins this year !

I hope I am wrong, would love to see him perform at the 2015/16 (alien like) level, that was the best tennis I have ever seen anybody plays. He just set the bar too high.
Click to expand...


OMG, quoting myself ... and refuting myself !!!

I get it, Djokovic won but I still do not think he is at the consistently good level to win any major titles ...

let us not fool ourselves, Cincinnati is not a major title !

best of 5 - Djole is no good anymore !
 
pasta said:
OMG, quoting myself ... and refuting myself !!!

I get it, Djokovic won but I still do not think he is at the consistently good level to win any major titles ...

let us not fool ourselves, Cincinnati is not a major title !

best of 5 - Djole is no good anymore !
Click to expand...

This BS is getting boring, didn't Djokovic just win Wimbledon playing Bo5? If he can produce the level he showed against Nadal at Wimbledon he can definitely win the US Open.
 
pasta said:
OMG, quoting myself ... and refuting myself !!!

I get it, Djokovic won but I still do not think he is at the consistently good level to win any major titles ...

let us not fool ourselves, Cincinnati is not a major title !

best of 5 - Djole is no good anymore !
Click to expand...
If he won Cincinnati playing almost nothing but 3 setters, I don't see why he wouldn't last in best-of-5. He had the most time on that court, and he was still running around shots with Federer. Sure Federer wasn't at his best, clearly, but he was the person that made the final.
 
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