Djokovic vs Nadal: better returner of big serves?(Karlovic, Isner etc)

Who returns big serves better(peak for peak and overall)


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Tenisfan3

Professional
Djokovic is certainly a better overall returner than Nadal but I was just watching the Cincinnati F between Isner and Nadal and it amazed me as to how good Nadal is(was) against the big servers. He's undefeated against both Karlovic and Isner over a big sample size (6-0,5-0 IIRC). Djokovic on the other hand for all his returning prowess, has a losing record to Karlovic and has also lost a couple of matches to Isner IIRC in a similar sample set to Nadal's vs Isner.

Of course there are other big servers too....

What is TTW's view on this?
 
Even as a yuuuge fan of Novak — just the biggest really, very very big fan, I will build yuge fanclubs for Novak, and it will be great and people will love it, and we will bring fans back from Roger and Rafa who we are always losing polls to, and we will be winning so many polls you'll be bored with winning — I must admit that this is a yuuge hole in Novak's bid for being the most complete player. It saddens me greatly to admit this.
 
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Nadal is probably a little better but he often gets away with standing too far back and not having a great block return because no one serves and volleys well.
 
Djoko.

But nadal holds his nerves better -- including clutch serving/TB situations.
 
Djoko.

But nadal holds his nerves better -- including clutch serving/TB situations.
So you're saying clutch serving is all that differentiates Nadal's spotless record vs Isner Karlovic from Djokovic's losing record vs Karlovic and decentish record vs Isner?
 
As the biggest Nadal worshiper ever walked on earth, this makes me confused.

Nadal vs Cilic, another big serve is 3 - 1. Cilic still managed to win 1 match. Among 3 losses, the only one he lost in straight was on clay.
Nadal vs Berdych: 19 - 4 while Djo vs Berdych is 25 - 2!!!
Nadal vs Kyrgios: it stills hurts me
Nadal vs Brown: still hurts me too
Nadal vs Rosol: darkest day in my life
Nadal vs Soderling: wished it was a nightmare, disappeared when i woke up

They may say Nadal is a joke off-clay, can only peak during the blank between Federer's and Djoker's reigns but I know they're just too jealous. Nadal is invincible when he's injury-free.
 
So you're saying clutch serving is all that differentiates Nadal's spotless record vs Isner Karlovic from Djokovic's losing record vs Karlovic and decentish record vs Isner?

clutch play in general ...yes ..

I think if you get the return % of points won vs both these players combined..djoko would still come out ahead ..
 
Against big first serves, Nadal is definitely the better returner between the two.

Djokovic is far better at putting away slower spin serves, which is the primary reason why he is regarded as the better overall returner IMO.

If Nadal put away second serve returns more frequently instead of deliberately hitting loopy deep balls, he'd be a contender for GOAT returner.

I'm 99% convinced that Nadal hits those loopy returns to keep a rhythm going, and to produce a reliable, high-ish pressure return. IMO it backfires far too often (especially now that he's older) for it to be viable on any surface other than clay.

He can keep the looping returns on first serve, but he should start looking at putting away or at least aggressively placing his second serve returns like Djokovic--and he's shown in previous matches that he can when he chooses to.
 
Djokovic is certainly a better overall returner than Nadal but I was just watching the Cincinnati F between Isner and Nadal and it amazed me as to how good Nadal is(was) against the big servers. He's undefeated against both Karlovic and Isner over a big sample size (6-0,5-0 IIRC). Djokovic on the other hand for all his returning prowess, has a losing record to Karlovic and has also lost a couple of matches to Isner IIRC in a similar sample set to Nadal's vs Isner.

Of course there are other big servers too....

What is TTW's view on this?
Murray is better than both of them.:rolleyes:
 
As a huge No2e fan, it saddens me that someone like Rafael has a better record against the biggest servers of the game. All Nadal does is stand way behind the baseline to return serves and win against the Servebots. No2e on the other hand faces the big serves like a brave big boy that he is and loses like a boss.
No2e is a better returner but has more losses to the biggest servers because Nadal cheats!
 
So you're saying clutch serving is all that differentiates Nadal's spotless record vs Isner Karlovic from Djokovic's losing record vs Karlovic and decentish record vs Isner?

Pretty much.

Djokovic has won 38.2% of his return points against Isner, Nadal only 33.9%. This is despite the fact that 9 of 10 of Djokovic's and Isner's matches have taken place off clay, whereas only 2 of the 6 encounters between Nadal and Isner were off the dirt. Also, in their 2012 IW showdown, Djokovic won a much higher % of return points but Isner managed to eke out two tiebreakers.

With Karlovic, it's a lot simpler: they've played once in the past 8 years. The Madrid match was before Djokovic was at or near his peak.
 
Against big first serves, Nadal is definitely the better returner between the two.

Don't know how 'definite' it is

% of first serve return points won on HC

Djokovic: 33.3%
Nadal: 31.7%

% of first serve return points won on grass

Djokovic: 30.3%
Nadal: 26.9%

Ace against % on HC

Djokovic: 6.6%
Nadal: 8.2%

Ace against % on grass

Djokovic: 7.4%
Nadal: 11.2%

Against a big first serve, defense, anticipation and compactness of swing are key; they're unbelievably hard to attack with any consistency. That said, I think Djokovic is better in every respect on the return, defensively and offensively, on both deliveries. Nadal is very average returning first serves. For somebody who doesn't attack them, he gets aced and served off the court an awful lot. That's excusable if your name is Agassi (or even Connors, who got aced a ton but made the returns he got in count for something), but with Nadal there is no such trade-off.
 
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Djokovic is certainly a better overall returner than Nadal but I was just watching the Cincinnati F between Isner and Nadal and it amazed me as to how good Nadal is(was) against the big servers. He's undefeated against both Karlovic and Isner over a big sample size (6-0,5-0 IIRC). Djokovic on the other hand for all his returning prowess, has a losing record to Karlovic and has also lost a couple of matches to Isner IIRC in a similar sample set to Nadal's vs Isner.

Of course there are other big servers too....

What is TTW's view on this?
A point I've made many times. In fact add Raonic into the mix who Nadal leads by 6:1 his only loss coming in Shanghai in 2015. Nadal actually bageled Raonic in Barcelona in 2013. So Nadal is 17:1 against the three of them.
 
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Nadal is probably a little better but he often gets away with standing too far back and not having a great block return because no one serves and volleys well.
It doesn't matter where you stand to return serve, what matters is how successful your method is.
 
Don't know how 'definite' it is

% of first serve return points won on HC

Djokovic: 33.3%
Nadal: 31.7%

% of first serve return points won on grass

Djokovic: 30.3%
Nadal: 26.9%

Ace against % on HC

Djokovic: 6.6%
Nadal: 8.2%

Ace against % on grass

Djokovic: 7.4%
Nadal: 11.2%

Against a big first serve, defense, anticipation and compactness of swing are key; they're unbelievably hard to attack with any consistency. That said, I think Djokovic is better in every respect on the return, defensively and offensively, on both deliveries. Nadal is very average returning first serves. For somebody who doesn't attack them, he gets aced and served off the court an awful lot. That's excusable if your name is Agassi (or even Connors, who got aced a ton but made the returns he got in count for something), but with Nadal there is no trade-off.
I'm always happy to be corrected with cold hard facts, particularly since I'm going off anecdotal 'evidence' more than anything.

However, I have to ask--for which years are these stats for? If these include 2015 and 2016, the stats could be misleading, since we're probably speaking about peak performance (as is the norm).

Then it may be interesting to know what % of those first serves returned they won. Both players during their best years have monstrous stats for return games / points won.
 
I'm always happy to be corrected with cold hard facts, particularly since I'm going off anecdotal 'evidence' more than anything.

However, I have to ask--for which years are these stats for? If these include 2015 and 2016, the stats could be misleading, since we're probably speaking about peak performance (as is the norm).

Then it may be interesting to know what % of those first serves returned they won. Both players during their best years have monstrous stats for return games / points won.

They do indeed, and that's a fair point. However, Nadal performed reasonably well off the first serve return in 2015/16 on hard courts -- 30.8 and 33.2% of points won, respectively. Where Rafa has faltered these past few years has mainly been on his own serve.
 
They do indeed, and that's a fair point. However, Nadal performed reasonably well off the first serve return in 2015/16 on hard courts -- 30.8 and 33.2% of points won, respectively. Where Rafa has faltered these past few years has mainly been on his own serve.
That's not too shabby at all, but I'm thinking that his loss of foot speed must play quite a noticeable role in his stats, especially considering how far back he returns from these days.

Earlier on in his career, he took returns on the baseline but rallied from deep behind the baseline. Nowadays it's the opposite.
 
A point I've made many times. In fact add Raonic into the mix who Nadal leads by 6:1 his only loss coming in Shanghai in 2015. Nadal actually bageled Raonic in Barcelona in 2013. So Nadal is 17:1 against the three of them.

Aside from the fact that Djokovic is a pretty decent 17-3 against the trio (with a higher % of first serve return won against 2 of the 3), there are more than 3 big servers in tennis, so what point are you trying to make? That Nadal returns Ivo and Isner better than Djokovic? Perhaps he does, but forgive me for questioning the relevance of that. Even granting you this point, the difference is pretty overblown. As mentioned earlier, Djokovic has won a significantly higher % of return points against Isner than Nadal has, despite only playing him once on clay. Nadal has played Big John on clay in 4 of their 6 meetings, even getting taken to 5 at his pet slam. In one of the matches Isner prevailed in, he won both of his sets via tiebreak. In the other one, he won 7-6 and 7-5 sets.

Adding Raonic to the mix might be problematic for your argument considering Djokovic has an unblemished record against him and posts similar return stats, so that's splitting hairs.

You should try comparing their records against all big servers, with an emphasis placed on success against big first serves (often the hallmark of a big server), and on faster surfaces where serve-botting usually pays dividends. That should go a longer way in determining who is better against big servers. Nadal having marginally better cumulative success against two players hardly scratches the surface.
 
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That's not too shabby at all, but I'm thinking that his loss of foot speed must play quite a noticeable role in his stats, especially considering how far back he returns from these days.

Earlier on in his career, he took returns on the baseline but rallied from deep behind the baseline. Nowadays it's the opposite.

True, although even in his prime he lagged far behind Djokovic in first serve return statistics on non-clay surfaces. Plus even then he had a tendency to camp well behind the baseline in some matches, like v Murray at the US Open in 2008.
 
As a huge No2e fan, it saddens me that someone like Rafael has a better record against the biggest servers of the game. All Nadal does is stand way behind the baseline to return serves and win against the Servebots. No2e on the other hand faces the big serves like a brave big boy that he is and loses like a boss.
No2e is a better returner but has more losses to the biggest servers because Nadal cheats!
As a Na9aL fan, I think everything that Na9al does is 9eautiful. He returns from deep behind the baseline because he is hum9le and wants to compliment his opponent (the server) on his serving skills.

No2e is an arrogant fool who gets SARBinated by the biggest servebot in world history, fedr. Suck on that, bel16ers!

Did you know that Na9al hit 22 winners in the 5th set of the 2013 French Open semifinals against No2e?
 
True, although even in his prime he lagged far behind Djokovic in first serve return statistics on non-clay surfaces. Plus even then he had a tendency to camp well behind the baseline in some matches, like v Murray at the US Open in 2008.
I'll take your word for it since you have the stats. Maybe I'm thinking that peak Rafa returned big serves well when it mattered, whereas Djokovic got more into play but couldn't convert enough of them into points in his favour at crunch time (from what I gather, this is your line of thinking).

You could always tell how well or not well Nadal was doing in his matches based on how far back behind the baseline he was hitting.

Nowadays, it's even more obvious...basically if he's on, he's doing badly.
 
I'll take your word for it since you have the stats. Maybe I'm thinking that peak Rafa returned big serves well when it mattered, whereas Djokovic got more into play but couldn't convert enough of them into points in his favour at crunch time (from what I gather, this is your line of thinking).

You could always tell how well or not well Nadal was doing in his matches based on how far back behind the baseline he was hitting.

Nowadays, it's even more obvious...basically if he's on, he's doing badly.

If you're interested, these two sites are absolute gold mines for tennis-related data:

http://www.tennisabstract.com

http://tennis-strangeforest.rhcloud.com

Love geeking out and playing with the numbers when I'm bored :D

I mostly agree with your summary. I think Djokovic is just so subtly brilliant on the return, redirecting big serves, absorbing their pace, guessing right with great frequency etc, that sometimes specific aspects of his return go unnoticed, or are obscured by the main strength of the stroke (namely, punishing second serves with controlled aggression). There's a pretty big gap in quality between his first and second serve return, and that accounts for the somewhat specious belief that his first serve return is anything but excellent.

Djokovic also largely sticks to the same tactics on the first serve return, which might contribute to some of the (again, IMO) underrating. Nadal, on the other hand, can be pretty passive and at times hapless...yet when he employs a bolder strategy and makes a few big returns, he leaves you wondering why he doesn't do it all the time. I think the contrast between Nadal's highs and lows on the return are stark in comparison to Novak's, thus making his spectacular return games stick out a little more. Just my personal musings, which I admit are subject to bias :D
 
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Pretty much.

Djokovic has won 38.2% of his return points against Isner, Nadal only 33.9%. This is despite the fact that 9 of 10 of Djokovic's and Isner's matches have taken place off clay, whereas only 2 of the 6 encounters between Nadal and Isner were off the dirt. Also, in their 2012 IW showdown, Djokovic won a much higher % of return points but Isner managed to eke out two tiebreakers.

With Karlovic, it's a lot simpler: they've played once in the past 8 years. The Madrid match was before Djokovic was at or near his peak.

thanks for the stats ...as I expected.
 
Murray is better than both of them.:rolleyes:
No hes not!! Djokovic is better returner than Murray... Now your gloating on Murray because this was his peak Year... But nads and Nole have had many crazy return years where they dominated the tour....
 
Nadal is better against Isner, while Djokovic is better with Karlovic. Inser's serve kicks up more and Nadal standing so far behind the baseline and can actually get around it quite well.

Karlovic's serve hits better angles, so Nadal standing a mile behind the baseline wouldn't fly.
 
No hes not!! Djokovic is better returner than Murray... Now your gloating on Murray because this was his peak Year... But nads and Nole have had many crazy return years where they dominated the tour....
Don't have time to bring up the stats, but Murray handles servebots better and has better return game on grass courts (26 vs 25% of return games won.) The idiotic ATP site shows Djokovic as number 1 on hard courts, but that is because they put the player with the most games ahead when tied on their crude percentage. Reality when using ATP site numbers and proper calculation methods:
1 Novak Djokovic 33 2,160 6,625 572 32.6%
2 Andy Murray 33 2,048 6,171 522 33.2% (REAL #1 RETURNER)
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Murray is the GOAT returner by a signficant margin.
 
Djokovic actually is the better returner. Nadal however is better at playing the big servers. Every time I see Nadal or Federer play a "servebot", I see them being very patient, waiting for an opportunity to get the upper hand. Djokovic on the other hand looks very impatient and worried when he is unable to win return points against the big servers.
 
Don't have time to bring up the stats, but Murray handles servebots better and has better return game on grass courts (26 vs 25% of return games won.) The idiotic ATP site shows Djokovic as number 1 on hard courts, but that is because they put the player with the most games ahead when tied on their crude percentage. Reality when using ATP site numbers and proper calculation methods:
1 Novak Djokovic 33 2,160 6,625 572 32.6%
2 Andy Murray 33 2,048 6,171 522 33.2% (REAL #1 RETURNER)
laugh_above.gif


Murray is the GOAT returner by a signficant margin.
 
Djokovic and it's not close.

But then huge, big servers sluggishly make their way to the net and

Rafa passes better and it's not close.
 
Don't have time to bring up the stats, but Murray handles servebots better and has better return game on grass courts (26 vs 25% of return games won.) The idiotic ATP site shows Djokovic as number 1 on hard courts, but that is because they put the player with the most games ahead when tied on their crude percentage. Reality when using ATP site numbers and proper calculation methods:
1 Novak Djokovic 33 2,160 6,625 572 32.6%
2 Andy Murray 33 2,048 6,171 522 33.2% (REAL #1 RETURNER)
laugh_above.gif


Murray is the GOAT returner by a signficant margin.

Djokovic has better stats against top 10 players from my recollection. Plus the fact that Djokovic has played a lot more top 5-10 players in his career than Murray. Not to mention this is hardly a peak for peak comparison if you're looking at career numbers.

Your reliance on bare stats without any context of further thought is your greatest weakness as always ;)

Edit: No stats for games but Djokovic has won 39.7% of return points against top 10 players, Murray is at 38.5%. Gap is wider for top 5 players with Djokovic at 39.0% and Murray at 37.6%.

If we keep it HC then Djokovic is at 40.2% for tenners and Murray is at 39.2%.

Definitely can't say Murray is significantly better. Now I would normally defer to game stats before points but unfortunately I can't get that data.
 
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Djokovic and it's not close.

But then huge, big servers sluggishly make their way to the net and

Rafa passes better and it's not close.


That's true. Even Zverev put him in a world of trouble with his forays to the net. I think, with reps, Djokovic would be able to handle s + v'ing better than he does now. Since there's a dearth of great net players he's still much better against big servers than Rafa, overall.
 
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Djokovic has better stats against top 10 players from my recollection. Plus the fact that Djokovic has played a lot more top 5-10 players in his career than Murray. Not to mention this is hardly a peak for peak comparison if you're looking at career numbers.

Your reliance on bare stats without any context of further thought is your greatest weakness as always ;)

Edit: No stats for games but Djokovic has won 39.7% of return points against top 10 players, Murray is at 38.5%. Gap is wider for top 5 players with Djokovic at 39.0% and Murray at 37.6%.

If we keep it HC then Djokovic is at 40.2% for tenners and Murray is at 39.2%.

Definitely can't say Murray is significantly better. Now I would normally defer to game stats before points but unfortunately I can't get that data.

LOL, was just about to pull up the same data. Mainly to play devil's advocate, as I think it is rather close between the two.

One could say that Djokovic's superior numbers against the top 10 can be partially ascribed to his superior ground game. Murray goes through prolonged spells of passivity against the top guys sometimes.

Also, since the start of 2011, Djokovic has won 43.4% of return points across all surfaces against the entire field, 44.2% on HC and 39.8% on grass. For Murray it's 42.3, 42.7 and 39.9. So you're right to point out that relying on his pre-peak statistics might be a little foolhardy.
 
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LOL, was just about to pull up the same data. Mainly to play devil's advocate, as I think it is rather close between the two.

One could say that Djokovic's superior numbers against the top 10 can be partially ascribed to his superior ground game. Murray goes through prolonged spells passivity against the top guys sometimes.

Also, since the start of 2011, Djokovic has won 43.4% of return points across all surfaces against the entire field, 44.2% on HC and 39.8% on grass. For Murray it's 42.3, 42.7 and 39.9. So you're right to point out that relying on his pre-peak statistics might be a little foolhardy.

Sure I think Murray is up there.

Wouldn't Djokovic's superior ground game be even more evident against sub top 10 players though? I think it's just a question of intensity for Djokovic. Out of the two Djokovic is more likely to raise his game on return in a big match. Which is why I would pick him as the better return, Murray might be slightly better day in and day out but on the biggest points Djokovic's return rises to the occasion more often IMO. Obviously in the Wimbledon final this year Murray's returns were on point, but Raonic was hardly delivering his best performance...
 
Sure I think Murray is up there.

Wouldn't Djokovic's superior ground game be even more evident against sub top 10 players though? I think it's just a question of intensity for Djokovic. Out of the two Djokovic is more likely to raise his game on return in a big match. Which is why I would pick him as the better return, Murray might be slightly better day in and day out but on the biggest points Djokovic's return rises to the occasion more often IMO. Obviously in the Wimbledon final this year Murray's returns were on point, but Raonic was hardly delivering his best performance...

I think the thing with Murray is that his relative lack of firepower and purposeful aggression gets exposed against the top guys. Endless cross court exchanges won't cut it (looks like he mixed it up more this year to his credit, especially off the fh). The lesser players might have him on the rails for a bit, but they just don't have the ability to cash in. Djokovic, for a time, was pretty much impervious to any opponents onslaught from the ground. So, I think the difference in their baseline prowess is somewhat of a factor (almost as much as Murray facing less top 10 players). It's Murray's ground game that deserts him in big matches more so than the return itself.

Fwiw Djokovic has better numbers against both top 10 AND sub top 10 opponents, since 2011. Overall I'd go with Novak's return by a hair. No Melesian hyperbole to be found here ;)
 
Djokovic has better stats against top 10 players from my recollection. Plus the fact that Djokovic has played a lot more top 5-10 players in his career than Murray. Not to mention this is hardly a peak for peak comparison if you're looking at career numbers.

Your reliance on bare stats without any context of further thought is your greatest weakness as always ;)

Edit: No stats for games but Djokovic has won 39.7% of return points against top 10 players, Murray is at 38.5%. Gap is wider for top 5 players with Djokovic at 39.0% and Murray at 37.6%.

If we keep it HC then Djokovic is at 40.2% for tenners and Murray is at 39.2%.

Definitely can't say Murray is significantly better. Now I would normally defer to game stats before points but unfortunately I can't get that data.
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That is interesting especially over a career. That would be a fairly consistent group. Of course you do know this means that Murray's record against players outside of the top 10 on return is much better than the Djokovic.:eek: And would represent a more consistent/even group of players.o_O Also generally, the lesser player in overall game is losing more points especially against the top players.

If you do all matches played Djokovic is the better returner with no filtering because he has better return points won on clay. I'd say the gap on grass and hard courts shows that Murray is the better returnerer.;)
 
LOL, was just about to pull up the same data. Mainly to play devil's advocate, as I think it is rather close between the two.

One could say that Djokovic's superior numbers against the top 10 can be partially ascribed to his superior ground game. Murray goes through prolonged spells passivity against the top guys sometimes.

Also, since the start of 2011, Djokovic has won 43.4% of return points across all surfaces against the entire field, 44.2% on HC and 39.8% on grass. For Murray it's 42.3, 42.7 and 39.9. So you're right to point out that relying on his pre-peak statistics might be a little foolhardy.
Confining to prime years is a good choice. A little surprised to learn that Djokovic was relatively weakerer on return from 2007-2010.

I would counter to the top 10 or top 5 performance that we are also looking at matchups with many of the same players playing over and over again. I'd favor looking at stats outside of the top 5 or even 10. To me that is a much broader more consistent group of players. It also eliminates the impact of the big 4 on a players stats.

We really don't need stats to analyze the very top matchups. Quoting Murray vs Federer career stats would not be a good measure even though they've had a lot of matches. When we restrict to top 5 or even top 10 we run into similar issues.

We also have to understand in overall stats that big returners have more of a chance for lopsided matches especially on slower courts (clay and Auz Open). Its very easy for a player like Djokovic to have a 6-2 set while a player like Roddick is going to have mainly single breaks sets and tiebreakers even when beating opponents fairly comfortably. When you move to Grass and even US Open and other fast hard courts, its harder to get lopsided stats. The fact that Djokovic won 56.0% of hard court points in his peak/primish best and Federer won 55.0% does not mean much once you realize that the very nature of the courts that these players excel on explains much of that gap and their playing style. Federer does not have as much of a return based game and does betterer on fast courts so naturally his points and games stats don't show as well. Djokovic has a great return and slow court game so he has many more possibilities for dominating set scores.

Comparing Murray and Djokovic is very legitimate as they both are strong returners. The one issue would be clay where Murray has not done well until the recent Clayray period.
 
Djokovic actually is the better returner. Nadal however is better at playing the big servers. Every time I see Nadal or Federer play a "servebot", I see them being very patient, waiting for an opportunity to get the upper hand. Djokovic on the other hand looks very impatient and worried when he is unable to win return points against the big servers.
Karlovic.:D
 
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