Djokovic vs Nadal slam meetings, another way to look at...

[beard]

So, when/if Novak and Rafa meet at FO that will e 10th slam meeting at FO, which is ridiculously too many...
Then we hear explanation that Nadal is too good at FO so that's the reason, while Novak failed to play some matches on other slams (kinda true if you take i of the context)...
So let's see how they play at each slam thought number of wins...
We see Novak as consistent, with almost no differences at slams, he plays great everywhere... Rafa? Well, see for your self... Clay goat, he is...
Just this graph shows who true, overall goat is, and who just can't be...

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

So, when/if Novak and Rafa meet at FO that will e 10th slam meeting at FO, which is ridiculously too many...
Then we hear explanation that Nadal is too good at FO so that's the reason, while Novak failed to play some matches on other slams (kinda true if you take i of the context)...
So let's see how they play at each slam thought number of wins...
We see Novak as consistent, with almost no differences at slams, he plays great everywhere... Rafa? Well, see for your self... Clay goat, he is...
Just this graph shows who true, overall goat is, and who just can't be...

I think this would make more sense with Win% rather than number of wins.

What this currently proves is that Novak is consistent across slams and also doesn't really prioritize any particular slam. Rafa on the other hand has the FO skew and also as we all know skips other slams often but always prioritizes FO.

With win% we can get better idea of their performance levels across slams.

Ironically Novak has most wins in FO but the least no of slams. Of course he has been very consistent at FO and would have 6-7 titles if not for Rafa.

 

[beard]

I think this would make more sense with Win% rather than number of wins.

What this currently proves is that Novak is consistent across slams and also doesn't really prioritize any particular slam. Rafa on the other hand has the FO skew and also as we all know skips other slams often but always prioritizes FO.

With win% we can get better idea of their performance levels across slams.

Ironically Novak has most wins in FO but the least no of slams. Of course he has been very consistent at FO and would have 6-7 titles if not for Rafa.

On this topic, % are not relevant... Rafa can have high percentage, but he skipped many slams, so he wasn't there to lose to Novak, while Novak was there so many times at FO in best and bad form... That's the point...
Rafa is up and down. When he is at his best there is Novak to beat Novak, when Novak is at his best there is no Nadal to beat him (USO is best sample, or Wimbledon where even in 2018 Rafa was in better shape and momentum)...

 

[ADuck]

On this topic, % are not relevant... Rafa can have high percentage, but he skipped many slams, so he wasn't there to lose to Novak, while Novak was there so many times at FO in best and bad form... That's the point...
Rafa is up and down. When he is at his best there is Novak to beat Novak, when Novak is at his best there is no Nadal to beat him (USO is best sample, or Wimbledon where even in 2018 Rafa was in better shape and momentum)...

Aside from skipping slams due to injury, Nadal has also many times played slams in best and bad form. So framing this as "Djokovic played many slams in bad form whilst Nadal skipped them" is disingenuous. The real difference here is that Nadal skipped more slams because Djokovic was more fortunate with his body.

 

[beard]

Aside from skipping slams due to injury, Nadal has also many times played slams in best and bad form. So framing this as "Djokovic played many slams in bad form whilst Nadal skipped them" is disingenuous. The real difference here is that Nadal skipped more slams because Djokovic was more fortunate with his body.

Well, the number of wins at each slam shows how consistent Nadal was and how often he got to Novak, or Fed when he was out of form.... Answer is rarely, or better to say relatively rarely compared to Fed nad Djok (off course there were occasions when it happened)...

 

[pj80]

if Novak beats RAfa again it will be 3x which would ironically be the slam where he beat Rafa the most

 

[Nadal - GOAT]

On this topic, % are not relevant... Rafa can have high percentage, but he skipped many slams, so he wasn't there to lose to Novak, while Novak was there so many times at FO in best and bad form... That's the point...
Rafa is up and down. When he is at his best there is Novak to beat Novak, when Novak is at his best there is no Nadal to beat him (USO is best sample, or Wimbledon where even in 2018 Rafa was in better shape and momentum)...

Ok got your point.

I think the high seeding they have consistently had over the years has ensured that they rarely meet each other when either one is in bad form or shape. You site USO as an example, 2010 and 2013 USO Novak was pretty good. 2013 one was in fact a very close match where Novak squandered numerous opportunities.

When Novak has been in bad form he has also not reached Rafa like in USO 19, AO 2017. Of course same can be said for rafa as well on several ocassions. So I think overall it all evens out.

Now if Rafa had lesser injuries and played more Wimb/ USO then what would have been their H2H is anybody's guess.(AO12 and Wimb 18 were very close and could have gone either ways). One thing I agree is that FO skew in their slam H2H is largely due to Novak being a great player on clay. If not for Rafa he would have most likely beaten Borg's slam count.

 

[ADuck]

Well, the number of wins at each slam shows how consistent Nadal was and how often he got to Novak, or Fed when he was out of form.... Answer is rarely, or better to say relatively rarely compared to Fed nad Djok (off course there were occasions when it happened)...

If you honestly wanted to calculate that you'd use win percentage over number of wins.

 

[beard]

If you honestly wanted to calculate that you'd use win percentage over number of wins.

Read previous posts, I explained why it's pointless on this matter...
To explain again using simple sample... Rafa could have 100% of wins at one slam, winning 2 slams, and beating Novak 2 times... But where would Rafa be other years to give Novak the opportunity to beat him back?

 

[FedeRadi]

So, when/if Novak and Rafa meet at FO that will e 10th slam meeting at FO, which is ridiculously too many...
Then we hear explanation that Nadal is too good at FO so that's the reason, while Novak failed to play some matches on other slams (kinda true if you take i of the context)...
So let's see how they play at each slam thought number of wins...
We see Novak as consistent, with almost no differences at slams, he plays great everywhere... Rafa? Well, see for your self... Clay goat, he is...
Just this graph shows who true, overall goat is, and who just can't be...

That's half of the story.
Let's see missed oppurtunities for Djokodal matches:


Australian Open:
2008: Nadal lost vs Tsonga in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2009: Djokovic lost vs Roddick in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2010: Nadal lost vs Ferrer in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2013: Nadal absent. Djokovic won the tournament.
2014: Djokovic lost vs Wawrinka in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2015: Nadal lost vs Berdych in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2016: Nadal lost vs Verdasco 1R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2017: Djokovic lost vs Istomin 2R. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2020: Nadal lost vs Thiem in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2021: Nadal lost vs Tsitsipas in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2022: Djokovic absent. Nadal won the tournament.

Nadal Fault: 7
Djokovic Fault: 4

Roland Garros:
2010: Djokovic lost vs Melzer in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2011: Djokovic lost vs Federer in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2016: Nadal retired vs Granollers in R3. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2017: Djokovic lost vs Thiem in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2018: Djokovic lost vs Cecchinato in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2019: Djokovic lost vs Thiem in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.

Nadal Fault: 1
Djokovic Fault: 5

Wimbledon:
2008: Djokovic lost vs Safin in 2R. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2010: Djokovic lost vs Berdych in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2013: Nadal lost vs Darcis in 1R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2014: Nadal lost vs Kyrgios in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2015: Nadal lost vs Brown in 2R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2019: Nadal lost vs Federer in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2021: Nadal absent. Djokovic won the tournament.

Nadal Fault: 5
Djokovic Fault: 2


US Open:
2007: Nadal lost vs Ferrer in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2012: Nadal absent. Djokovic finalist.
2014: Nadal absent. Djokovic semifinalist. (Nadal could have met Djokovic if he would have been in his half of the draw, let's count this 0.5)
2015: Nadal lost vs Fognini in 3R. Didn't reach Djokovic in QF.
2016: Nadal lost vs Pouille in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2017: Djokovic absent. Nadal won the tournament.
2018: Nadal lost vs Del Potro in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2019: Djokovic lost vs Wawrinka in 4R. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2021: Nadal absent. Djokovic finalist.

Nadal Fault: 6.5
Djokovic Fault: 2

Total:
Nadal Fault: 19,5
Djokovic Fault: 13

Nadal Fault on clay: 1
Djokovic Fault outside clay: 8 (2.6 per slam)

Nadal Fault outside clay: 18.5 (6.2 per slam)
Djokovic Fault on clay: 5

It's true that Nadal was way more consistent on clay than Djokovic was on grass and hard(He missed only 1 time a Djokodal meeting in RG, Djokovic averaged 2.6 in other slams for a grand total of 8).
But it's also true that Djokovic was way more consistent on clay than Nadal was on grass and hard(He missed only 5 time Djokodal meeting in RG, Nadal averaged 6.2 in other slams for a grand total of 18.5).
RG-Skewed Slam H2H are a consequence of both players merit and faults.

 

[LetWinner]

this stat only makes sense for Wimbledon.

At the AO they’re almost equal, and the reason for the huge USO discrepancy is not level while being at the tournament, but rather because of the amount of USO’s Nadal has missed. 2012, 2014, 2020, 2021

 

[TheNachoMan]

Novak isn’t afraid to walk in the lions den. Thats the difference.

 

[Hitman]

That's half of the story.
Let's see missed oppurtunities for Djokodal matches:


Australian Open:
2008: Nadal lost vs Tsonga in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2009: Djokovic lost vs Roddick in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2010: Nadal lost vs Ferrer in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2013: Nadal absent. Djokovic won the tournament.
2014: Djokovic lost vs Wawrinka in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2015: Nadal lost vs Berdych in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2016: Nadal lost vs Verdasco 1R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2017: Djokovic lost vs Istomin 2R. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2020: Nadal lost vs Thiem in QF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2021: Nadal lost vs Tsitsipas in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2022: Djokovic absent. Nadal won the tournament.

Nadal Fault: 7
Djokovic Fault: 4

Roland Garros:
2010: Djokovic lost vs Melzer in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2011: Djokovic lost vs Federer in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2016: Nadal retired vs Granollers in R3. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2017: Djokovic lost vs Thiem in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in SF.
2018: Djokovic lost vs Cecchinato in QF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2019: Djokovic lost vs Thiem in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.

Nadal Fault: 1
Djokovic Fault: 5

Wimbledon:
2008: Djokovic lost vs Safin in 2R. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2010: Djokovic lost vs Berdych in SF. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2013: Nadal lost vs Darcis in 1R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2014: Nadal lost vs Kyrgios in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2015: Nadal lost vs Brown in 2R. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2019: Nadal lost vs Federer in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2021: Nadal absent. Djokovic won the tournament.

Nadal Fault: 5
Djokovic Fault: 2


US Open:
2007: Nadal lost vs Ferrer in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2012: Nadal absent. Djokovic finalist.
2014: Nadal absent. Djokovic semifinalist. (Nadal could have met Djokovic if he would have been in his half of the draw, let's count this 0.5)
2015: Nadal lost vs Fognini in 3R. Didn't reach Djokovic in QF.
2016: Nadal lost vs Pouille in 4R. Didn't reach Djokovic in SF.
2017: Djokovic absent. Nadal won the tournament.
2018: Nadal lost vs Del Potro in SF. Didn't reach Djokovic in F.
2019: Djokovic lost vs Wawrinka in 4R. Didn't reach Nadal in F.
2021: Nadal absent. Djokovic finalist.

Nadal Fault: 6.5
Djokovic Fault: 2

Total:
Nadal Fault: 19,5
Djokovic Fault: 13

Nadal Fault on clay: 1
Djokovic Fault outside clay: 8 (2.6 per slam)

Nadal Fault outside clay: 18.5 (6.2 per slam)
Djokovic Fault on clay: 5

It's true that Nadal was way more consistent on clay than Djokovic was on grass and hard(He missed only 1 time a Djokodal meeting in RG, Djokovic averaged 2.6 in other slams for a grand total of 8).
But it's also true that Djokovic was way more consistent on clay than Nadal was on grass and hard(He missed only 5 time Djokodal meeting in RG, Nadal averaged 6.2 in other slams for a grand total of 18.5).
RG-Skewed Slam H2H are a consequence of both players merit and faults.

How anyone can fault Djokovic for not making MORE meetings with Nadal at RG, when they are about to make their 10th is beyond me.

There is a clear skew towards Roland Garros. Should this match happen again in a few days, it is the most frequent match up we have ever seen in the history of tennis, men or women. If that isn't enough to show the clear skew towards RG, I don't know what else will.

 

[ADuck]

Read previous posts, I explained why it's pointless on this matter...
To explain again using simple sample... Rafa could have 100% of wins at one slam, winning 2 slams, and beating Novak 2 times... But where would Rafa be other years to give Novak the opportunity to beat him back?

Differences in ability in 4 different slams is an inevitability. If Novak was superior to Rafa on average across all 4 slams then your point would be taken, but he's not. Even here, if you look at the total number of wins:

Rafa: 301
Djokovic: 329

The gap isn't that great, and if you correct for slams skipped by using win percentage, the gap would shrink even further.

The truth on why they meet so much at RG is because their combined winning percentage at RG is greater than any other slam. Even if Nadal was equally as good as Novak on the other surfaces they wouldn't have met as many times.

 

[jl809]

So, when/if Novak and Rafa meet at FO that will e 10th slam meeting at FO, which is ridiculously too many...
Then we hear explanation that Nadal is too good at FO so that's the reason, while Novak failed to play some matches on other slams (kinda true if you take i of the context)...
So let's see how they play at each slam thought number of wins...
We see Novak as consistent, with almost no differences at slams, he plays great everywhere... Rafa? Well, see for your self... Clay goat, he is...
Just this graph shows who true, overall goat is, and who just can't be...

As far as I know, no-one is saying this?

The slam H2H is skewed for the following reasons, which imo are neither of their faults.

Firstly, injuries and bad form patches made it almost impossible for them to coincide while playing well on HC:

1. Djokodal both being relatively poor in HC slams pre USO 07
2. Wrong side of the draw at AO 08, UO 08, UO 09
3. Poor-ish Djokovic form from 09-late 2010
4. Nadal having injuries at AO 11, USO 12, AO 13 and USO 14 (FOUR HC slams during his prime)
5. AO 14, Stanimal takes out Djokovic, can’t blame Djokovic there
6. Nadal’s poor run of form from ‘15-‘16, when Djokovic was making deep runs, then Djokovic’s poor form immediate after from ‘17-‘18, when Nadal was making deep runs
7. After that, ZERO USOs where they have both competed injury-free (Nadal injured in 18 and 21, Djokovic injured in 19, Nadal absent in 20

Secondly, despite being high seeded players who could only meet late in tournaments, their grass peaks basically did not coincide at all, so 1 would lose early:

1. 2006-2010: Djokovic bailing out at Wimbledon for various reasons (incl. injuries) while Nadal’s grass peak was around and he stormed to finals
2. 2011: One intersection! Djokovic, who is in Nadal’s head, smashes him easily
3. 2012-2016: Nadal bailing out early every time for various reasons (incl 2 injuries) while Djokovic’s grass peak was around and he (mostly) made deep runs
4. 2017 - no peak anymore
5. 2018-present - 1 meeting out of the 2 Wimbledons where they both competed, pretty good return

 

[Biotic]

How anyone can fault Djokovic for not making MORE meetings with Nadal at RG, when they are about to make their 10th is beyond me.

There is a clear skew towards Roland Garros. Should this match happen again in a few days, it is the most frequent match up we have ever seen in the history of tennis, men or women. If that isn't enough to show the clear skew towards RG, I don't know what else will.

VB: But Novak avoided him at 2017-2019 RG. They have to play a few more times at RG to make the H2H fair.

 

[Hitman]

VB: But Novak avoided him at 2017-2019 RG. They have to play a few more times at RG to make the H2H fair.

I have to shake my head at that....

Oh, they didn't play every single year of their careers as tennis professionals at RG, it's Novak's fault....only 10 times? He avoided Rafa.

 

[Biotic]

I have to shake my head at that....

Oh, they didn't play every single year of their careers as tennis professionals at RG, it's Novak's fault....only 10 times? He avoided Rafa.

VB:

 

[Hitman]

VB:

Looks like Daniel Bryan