Djokovic will have to win his 25th on HCs, his best surface - Wimbledon ain't happening for him

Razer

Razer

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic and the whole world feels Wimbledon is his best chance but no, the answer is his bread & butter ... HCs, thats the surface where he beat Alcaraz recently and can still do it.

I reckon Novak has 2 real shots ... US open 2025 and Aus open 2026.

Federer and Nadal peaked 1st and also declined the slowest on their respective surfaces Grass and Clay .... For Djokovic this is HCs.... He will have to go through Sinner on HCs to win and maybe he can on a good day, here on Grass it is a young man's surface, there is 0 chance against Alcaraz for Novak. He will be destroyed in Straight Sets in the final even if he manages to reach there.
 
Winning a slam past the age of 36 and having to face one or both future hall of famers. It’s a tough ask. Still, wouldn’t put it past him, but this W is his best chance.
 
Djoker's main problem is Alcaraz and Sinner, he can take out the field even today but these 2 are the problem. On Grass Alcaraz's athleticism, creativity and youth makes him just impossible to beat for this old Novak, on HCs he can beat Alcaraz. The problem there is Sinner, can he beat Sinner? Maybe... I like his chances vs Sinner on HCs more than his chances on Grass vs Alcaraz.
 
Razer said:
Djoker's main problem is Alcaraz and Sinner, he can take out the field even today but these 2 are the problem. On Grass Alcaraz's athleticism, creativity and youth makes him just impossible to beat for this old Novak, on HCs he can beat Alcaraz. The problem there is Sinner, can he beat Sinner? Maybe... I like his chances vs Sinner on HCs more than his chances on Grass vs Alcaraz.
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Almost every player in tennis history has both matured earliest and declined latest in conditions that suit them. This is because the margins are greater there: the same percentage improvement or decline has a much smaller impact on their results. It's for the same reason that the very best players can be successful at 19 or at 36, whereas run-of-the-mill players are almost always way off at those ages. So, yes, Djokovic too should do best at the end of his career on hard courts. I can't see him beating Sinner at the US Open, but perhaps the Australian Open if he can stay fit. It's six months away, though, which at his age is a long time. And it also doesn't help that the Australian Open is probably Sinner's best slam event, too.

But in Djokovic's case, grass is a bit of an outlier because it's a surface on which young players don't have much experience. I agree that it's tough to see him winning this event though, even if/when he gets through today.
 
ND-13 said:
Are we saying Sinner and Alcaraz are better players on grass than Djokovic ?
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At this point, they are better everywhere .... This means what I said in this thread is true....

Djokovic's bread and butter is HCs, if he cannot beat Sinner on HCs then he aint beating him anywhere else.... he has already beaten Alcaraz on HCs, he has to overcome Sinner too 1 more time and he can maybe win his 25th on HCs.

If it aint happening HCs then it aint happening anywhere.... Natural Surfaces have always been Novak's weaker spot relatively compared to HCs.
 
brewcrew said:
I think HC are too physical at this point.
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Better be physical than look like an old man on Grass which is a young man's surface or Clay which is the most physically gruelling surface out there.

HCs are his bread and butter, if he cannot win in New York / Australia then he definitely is not winning anywhere else.

HCs are bad the knees but no, Djoker does not have any problem with his knees...
 
AO/RG is still a real possibility. He was playing pretty darn well at AO before injury this year. Wimbledon even before the injury he was "meh" I wouldn't rule out Flushing either for Djoker. Wimbledon is a lost cause for him at this point
 
helterskelter said:
Almost every player in tennis history has both matured earliest and declined latest in conditions that suit them. This is because the margins are greater there: the same percentage improvement or decline has a much smaller impact on their results. It's for the same reason that the very best players can be successful at 19 or at 36, whereas run-of-the-mill players are almost always way off at those ages. So, yes, Djokovic too should do best at the end of his career on hard courts. I can't see him beating Sinner at the US Open, but perhaps the Australian Open if he can stay fit. It's six months away, though, which at his age is a long time. And it also doesn't help that the Australian Open is probably Sinner's best slam event, too.

But in Djokovic's case, grass is a bit of an outlier because it's a surface on which young players don't have much experience. I agree that it's tough to see him winning this event though, even if/when he gets through today.
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After this match we saw, we can safely agree with my thread, LOL...

TheGoldenEra1990’s said:
AO/RG is still a real possibility. He was playing pretty darn well at AO before injury this year. Wimbledon even before the injury he was "meh" I wouldn't rule out Flushing either for Djoker. Wimbledon is a lost cause for him at this point
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RG is very gruelling, without playing the clays season he cannot waltz into the tournament and win, no chance on clay. Alcaraz and even Sinner will thrash him next year on clay even more brutally, wait and watch

If it ain't happening on HCs then it ain't happening anywhere else.
 
I don’t see it. It feels impossible now and got the feeling from him after Wimbledon.

I mean sinner give him a beatdown at French and Wimbledon back to back.

If it was hard courts he’d be opening the bakery for bagels or breadsticks.
 
The problem with hard courts is the whole tour is better on hard courts (except Charlie Alcaraz) so there is far more chance of someone having a good night and kicking him to the curb.

More than anything, as he just said, it's his body. AO24 he looked out on his feet once he reached the semifinal. RG24 he got hurt battling. W24 he looked lost once he made it to the final. AO25 hurt himself with the effort he made. The journey took a toll on him here too. RG25 was the only really good run he's had in the last 2 years.
 
Hard courts are where Djoker has the slimmest chance of bagging a slam. The hard court field is too deep. And since Djoker’s ROS has declined, along with his movement, now guys like Zverev and Fritz will wear Djoker down for his next match vs Sinner. I.e, I still see Djoker taking out Zverev and Fritz in a hard court slam. But I see him needing a grueling 4-5 set match that either burns him out for Sinner, or injures him.

Djoker’s best shot is still Wimbledon. And he almost got the opening he needed. Fognini pushed Alcaraz to 5. Sinner was injured vs Dimitrov(I trashed Sinner earlier for that match, but now admit that I was wrong by underestimating his injury). Last year, Alcaraz barely escaped Tiafoe, was 1 game from winning.
 
Razer said:
Djokovic and the whole world feels Wimbledon is his best chance but no, the answer is his bread & butter ... HCs, thats the surface where he beat Alcaraz recently and can still do it.

I reckon Novak has 2 real shots ... US open 2025 and Aus open 2026.

Federer and Nadal peaked 1st and also declined the slowest on their respective surfaces Grass and Clay .... For Djokovic this is HCs.... He will have to go through Sinner on HCs to win and maybe he can on a good day, here on Grass it is a young man's surface, there is 0 chance against Alcaraz for Novak. He will be destroyed in Straight Sets in the final even if he manages to reach there.
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Delusional thread, buddy.
He will be easier to beat on hard courts than on natural surfaces.
:D
 
At this stage, Novak needs a LOT of good fortune no matter the surface. On hard he needs even more good fortune as that is where more players can at least do SOME damage and the result over the course of a tournament means that either they take him out if they can muster the nerve or they leave him easy prey for the top dogs.

I commented on these trends during Wimbledon AND RG but very few posters were interested in reality. He was never even close to winning at either, had some problems even with players who should be byes for him etc and got dismissed like a talented lucky loser playing above his station. Even at the AO, Alcaraz was clearly psyched out from Djokovic's injury etc and that isn't going to happen twice.

There's always a lag here in recognizing reality but it will happen.
 
I disagree. Djokovic’s best shot is/was clearly Wimbledon. The US Open is far more physically demanding for a 38-year-old, both in terms of conditions and recovery. Under normal circumstances, the heat and humidity in New York are significantly harsher than anything he’d face in London.
 
Warning bells should be clear to Novak fans.
He has given much to cheer . Enjoy what he has done . It is clear his body is not responding and secondly Sinner alcaraz are peaking or already peaked.
He is reaching SF of slams . That is almost knocking the door .
When you want to be lucky to win your Slam then it is time to say good bye
Novak was lucky enough to reach #24 and that gold medal was last thing he needed.
 
intrepidish said:
Even at the AO, Alcaraz was clearly psyched out from Djokovic's injury etc and that isn't going to happen twice.
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But even granting you that this is why he lost (hard disagree) : then he’s already been psyched out twice in big slam matches vs Novak (‘23 FO, ‘25 AO). For different reasons, sure, but at this point I don’t think we can just pencil him in for a stable match between the ears.

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem even-handed to call an injury of almost any variety anything but a decidedly UNlucky break lol. He did retire in the next round against Zverev after all. At best you can argue that since Djokovic is older injuries are to be expected and therefore it’s neither, but outright lucky? Nah lol
 
TheFifthSet said:
But even granting you that this is why he lost (hard disagree) : then he’s already been psyched out twice in big slam matches vs Novak (‘23 FO, ‘25 AO). For different reasons, sure, but at this point I don’t think we can just pencil him in for a stable match between the ears.

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem even-handed to call an injury of almost any variety anything but a decidedly UNlucky break lol. He did retire in the next round against Zverev after all. At best you can argue that since Djokovic is older injuries are to be expected and therefore it’s neither, but outright lucky? Nah lol
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It's not unlucky that an old player pick up injuries late in a slam. That's what happens quite often. There was perhaps some good fortune in playing a still comparatively green 21 year old (and 19 year old version before that) who was psyched out by by injury timeouts etc that isn't likely to keep happening.

I'm not sure what you're trying to convey in terms of my post. I argue that Djokovic was not that close to actually winning slams this year and it will be harder for him to do it on a hard court for the reasons I mentioned. He's struggling before the finals in a big way and he would likely receive a thrashing like Wimbledon 2024 at this stage all over unless he has a lot of luck in terms of others' injuries and who shows up.
 
The only way he could realistically win an HC slam is if Sinner is out of the way. But he's an absolute monster on that surface right now, so unless he gets an injury, Djoker winning another AO or USO is very unlikely.
 
intrepidish said:
It's not unlucky that an old player pick up injuries late in a slam. That's what happens quite often.
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To the point that it causes a retirement? Talking low single-digit %’s there. But that part is at least arguable. I think we at least safely say his injury at the tournament can’t be reasonably framed as a lucky break.

intrepidish said:
There was perhaps some good fortune in playing a still comparatively green 21 year old (and 19 year old version before that) who was psyched out by by injury timeouts etc that isn't likely to keep happening.
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If you grant that’s what happened, but even that wouldn’t be his biggest freak-out against Djovak alone.

intrepidish said:
I'm not sure what you're trying to convey in terms of my post. I argue that Djokovic was not that close to actually winning slams this year and it will be harder for him to do it on a hard court for the reasons I mentioned. He's struggling before the finals in a big way and he would likely receive a thrashing like Wimbledon 2024 at this stage all over unless he has a lot of luck in terms of others' injuries and who shows up.
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Yeah, I agree with your overall assessment. He’s been getting smashed in big matches aside from the two vs. Alcaraz and I don’t see that changing. Just highly disagree with your assessment of ‘25 AO.
 
His only chance was Wimbledon, where you can play tricks and variety that go in your advantage. But, although Djokovic can do such tricks from time to time, his natural game style is baseline grinding, a kind that is not favoured by grass (he's been successful because the field sucks and the grass was slowed down).

His chances are not in clay nor hard court, but in grass with a totally reinvented game plan.
 
TheFifthSet said:
To the point that it causes a retirement? Talking low single-digit %’s there. But that part is at least arguable. I think we at least safely say his injury at the tournament can’t be reasonably framed as a lucky break.



If you grant that’s what happened, but even that wouldn’t be his biggest freak-out against Djovak alone.



Yeah, I agree with your overall assessment. He’s been getting smashed in big matches aside from the two vs. Alcaraz and I don’t see that changing. Just highly disagree with your assessment of ‘25 AO.
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To the first point, I'm not sure it's not all uncommon; we saw it with most of the other greats late in their careers too. When old outstanding players with great competitive natures push themselves harder than their older bodies can take for multiple matches, it isn't surprising it ends up in pain.

For the second point, I think that's a big part of what happened at the AO and I grant Carlos hasn't always been rock solid in some aspects but he was also pretty young and is rapidly becoming a more solid version which is what we'd expect in his development given his age and experience. He'll be harder to throw off as we move forward.

All in all it's not a huge disagreement either way to me and I think the picture moving forward is fairly clear.
 
Razer said:
Djokovic and the whole world feels Wimbledon is his best chance but no, the answer is his bread & butter ... HCs, thats the surface where he beat Alcaraz recently and can still do it.

I reckon Novak has 2 real shots ... US open 2025 and Aus open 2026.

Federer and Nadal peaked 1st and also declined the slowest on their respective surfaces Grass and Clay .... For Djokovic this is HCs.... He will have to go through Sinner on HCs to win and maybe he can on a good day, here on Grass it is a young man's surface, there is 0 chance against Alcaraz for Novak. He will be destroyed in Straight Sets in the final even if he manages to reach there.
Click to expand...
He can forget slams if he isn't going to play a full schedule. This is no fedal type decline, its far worse as hehas no injury issues he is managing. He is getting injured at slams precisely because he isn't match fit due to lack of matches.

He needs to play Toronto and Cincinatti this year. Swallow his pride and go all out and try to win both and get his aura back
 
messiahrobins said:
He can forget slams if he isn't going to play a full schedule. This is no fedal type decline, its far worse as hehas no injury issues he is managing. He is getting injured at slams precisely because he isn't match fit due to lack of matches.

He needs to play Toronto and Cincinatti this year. Swallow his pride and go all out and try to win both and get his aura back
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What you are saying is true but then at 38 can he play a full schedule like that and play Slams the way he wants to peak for it ? He would get injured (serious career ending one) in the process, he is no fool... he knows lack of match practise is harming him but he cannot help it.
 
messiahrobins said:
He can forget slams if he isn't going to play a full schedule. This is no fedal type decline, its far worse as hehas no injury issues he is managing. He is getting injured at slams precisely because he isn't match fit due to lack of matches.

He needs to play Toronto and Cincinatti this year. Swallow his pride and go all out and try to win both and get his aura back
Click to expand...
He has to be fit for 7 BO5 matches.
Right now what is happening that he is reaching semis and injury happens or he run out of steam to challenge sinneraz.
In BO3 he still has some chance to win some titles but as far as Slam win almost neligible chance.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I agree. Some people get attached to a player and can’t let it go. I’d love it to happen but got to use logic over feelings. The ride is over. It been a fun ride but all things come to an end. The game has moved on.
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He's still the 3rd best player in the world right now, it's not like everyone and their mother can beat him. If the stars align for him, anything is possible.
 
gamelovergold said:
He has to be fit for 7 BO5 matches.
Right now what is happening that he is reaching semis and injury happens or he run out of steam to challenge sinneraz.
In BO3 he still has some chance to win some titles but as far as Slam win almost neligible chance.
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These niggles he is getting are because his schedule is too light. He needs to use m1000's and the odd 500 as building blocks. He also has made a mistake in becoming way too dependent on his serve and that i blame on his coaching team.
 
Razer said:
What you are saying is true but then at 38 can he play a full schedule like that and play Slams the way he wants to peak for it ? He would get injured (serious career ending one) in the process, he is no fool... he knows lack of match practise is harming him but he cannot help it.
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I agree, but i think his schedule should look something like:

Brisbane
AO
Dubai
IW
Monte Carlo
Rome
FO
W
Canada or Cincinatti
USO

End the season at the USO. 10 events would be perfect. I know he played a number of the above this season, but he didnt take them seriously and went out early which is where he is going wrong.
 
Let it never be said he didn’t have a great run regardless of competition.

That Djoko is currently 3rd best in the world in best 3 of 5 format at arguable at best. Besides beating Musetti last year in the W semi, he’s won 1 set at the semifinal level (1 3rd set TB vs. Sinner in AO 2024 cuz the latter got a bit tight) since winning 2023 USO against Medvedev.

No shame at all for Novak. He’s squeezed out so, so much along the lines of stats these last few years. Credit where credit is due for the most statistically accomplished player ever.

Hard court majors are too tall an order given that the field all play comfortably on it and he’s already lost to your Popyrins of the world last year. He’ll be 39 for RG & W next year, so he’ll remain @ 24.

I said right before Geneva that he should ditch RG, save his body, and go all out for W in hopes of having something left come the semis and finals. History repeated itself and his body, capacity to recover enough, etc. were gone—another case of hubris to think he could contest both RG & W. Should’ve chosen one and given how poor his clay buildup was, should’ve been grass and only grass. It’s a wrap now.
 
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