Djokovic will not qualify for WTF 2017

Where will Novak finish the year ranked?

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .
Meles

Meles

Bionic Poster
Nole is 18th in the race as it stands. Federer, Nadal, Dimitrov, Thiem, Wawrinka, Murray, Nishikori, Kyrgios, Zverev, and even Tsonga, Del Potro, and Raonic stand in his way. Its a minefield in 2017 and Djokovic has been hurt by tough draws in his last two events extending his period of light play and preventing him from reaching top form. Without the quick realization that he needs to play a heavy schedule its hard to see him making WTF.o_O
Race2017.png
 
I voted 9. I think Zverev is a bit too green to muscle Nole further down the rankings. With Tsonga taking a few events off this Spring and Raonic in a funk I don't see them making WTF either.
 
Zebrev said:
Djokovic won't make RG final, so that's another 1000 points gone. Of course, he will probably make some of those back at Wimby.
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Race is just what you've done during the year. Points falling off doesn't matter so much. Djokovic is in the 18th hole, so to speak and ready to retire to the 19th hole for drinks.;)
 
Charlie said:
And let's not forget Nadal ending #8 in the race last season.
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Or Nadal still qualifying in 2015, or Murray still being able to qualify in 2014 even after exiting the top 10 for a brief period then.

OP's statement is premature. An absolute disaster has to occur for Djokovic not to qualify, like having a Federer 2016 like season. And I don't see it happening. I hope it doesn't happen.
 
Meles said:
Race is just what you've done during the year. Points falling off doesn't matter so much. Djokovic is in the 18th hole, so to speak and ready to retire to the 19th hole for drinks.;)
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All I know is, Djokovic had 16,000 points as of last June - now he has under 9K. Will probably lose about 2000 more if he doesn't reach RG or US Open finals. It's a very sticky situation.
 
DreddyTennis45 said:
Never been a fan of the rankings, find them a bit confusing, but are you saying he could still be world #2/#3 and not qualify?
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The race is simple. He's 18th so far and keeps losing early in events. What he's done in the past has no effect other than that he's still getting good seeding which will dry up if he doesn't start defending his Spring points. Rankings still effect seedings, but again he's currently 18th for the season and this has always been a strong part of the year for him.

The problem is players like Kyrgios, Federer, and Dimitrov are looking almost like locks for WTF with their current levels. Now Thiem is feasting on a weak IW draw and looking very solid for top 8 status and byes at all the masters 1000 events. Thiem also has played into the best form of his career, so with him and Nadal competive on clay along with Murray, it won't take much for Novak to be in a big hole even after the clay season. Novak may be arrogant enough to skip several Masters 1000s which is his right to do with his seniority.
 
Meles said:
Yes during which he's getting older, but Thiem, Zverev, Kyrgios, and Dimitrov will be getting stronger.;)
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True but given how dominant Djokovic was a year ago I just can't see him finish outside top 8. He is too good for that to happen.
 
Zebrev said:
All I know is, Djokovic had 16,000 points as of last June - now he has under 9K. Will probably lose about 2000 more if he doesn't reach RG or US Open finals. It's a very sticky situation.
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That is for seedings. If Djokovic gains no points through the clay season he'll sit at 4300 points in the rankings. In the OP graphic he is 18th in the live race. You know that now.;)
 
6-3 6-0 said:
True but given how dominant Djokovic was a year ago I just can't see him finish outside top 8. He is too good for that to happen.
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He'll be playing a light schedule. Even though overall better than Thiem, he's the complete opposite for vulturing.:D Djoko's weaker serving may not even be enough against players like Thiem. 17 BPs from Miami last year may turn into a blood bath this year. He's really got to get it in gear. Showing up at an event with a competitive demeanor will not be enough. Thiem will be an absolute beast on clay and Zverev likely to start winning smaller events on clay and perhaps challenge the best names in the game.

Did you see Djokovic's serving in the tiebreaker against Kyrgios; missed his last 4 first serves. He's still very shakey.
 
Djokovic2011 said:
He probably won't this year as I have a feeling he'll also take some time off from the tour very soon but he's won the tournament five times already so it's not like he has anything to prove there.
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A sober assessment from a true fan or are you just anti-jinxing?:p
 
Djokovic2011 said:
He probably won't this year as I have a feeling he'll also take some time off from the tour very soon but he's won the tournament five times already so it's not like he has anything to prove there.
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I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic. Although, as much as I hate to entertain the idea, I really think that his shoulder is plaguing him and a little time off might be necessary if things don't improve. I don't buy that his game fell off a cliff organically in such a short period of time. Mileage might have contributed to it, but I've seen him clutch at that shoulder during the Davis Cup and I've seen the utterly hapless serving, decreased weight of shot and confounding inability to redirect the ball. There's more to it than natural decline (which I'm sure has played a role too.) If it really is the shoulder then maybe he should skip part of the CC season. I think my hunch is right.
 
Lolz it is only march not october

He has plenty tournaments to play so don't count him off too soon
 
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Meles said:
His shoulder is still bad after the off-season to recover?:eek:
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It seems to be a recurring thing. It was obvious in DC that the shoulder was impeding him. I suspect it's flaring up and he refuses to confront the elephant in the room because of all the points he's defending. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes some time off to get back in top shape for RG or Wimby. With each loss I'm starting to think it's the smart move. Would rather see him lose a couple thousand points and come back in great from than witness him languish all year trying to achieve some semblance of form while (IMW) injured.
 
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Meles said:
The race is simple. He's 18th so far and keeps losing early in events. What he's done in the past has no effect other than that he's still getting good seeding which will dry up if he doesn't start defending his Spring points. Rankings still effect seedings, but again he's currently 18th for the season and this has always been a strong part of the year for him.

The problem is players like Kyrgios, Federer, and Dimitrov are looking almost like locks for WTF with their current levels. Now Thiem is feasting on a weak IW draw and looking very solid for top 8 status and byes at all the masters 1000 events. Thiem also has played into the best form of his career, so with him and Nadal competive on clay along with Murray, it won't take much for Novak to be in a big hole even after the clay season. Novak may be arrogant enough to skip several Masters 1000s which is his right to do with his seniority.
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If Dimitrov keeps having these Sock losses, he won't qualify for the WTF.
 
If the current trend isn't broken, he'll be out of the top 10 by year end. We are mid-March and he has yet to play a great match or go deep even in tier 3 events like Acapulco, he looks uninterested, tired and easily irritated. He will lose a lot of points for failing to defend his title yesterday and the same scenario is very likely in Miami. After that, well he's got a lot to defend on clay as well. Just how far will the free fall go? Since last year's FO, he's hasn't looked the same but at least he managed to win Toronto, make the USO final and the WTF final. Since Becker got the boot, he's looked even worst. The fact that an older player starts losing more often isn't surprising, however in Djokovic's case, it's the way he loses these matches. He looks like he's retired mentally. How can one of the most complete baseline player/best returner ever, with 12 slams titles, years's as #1 and countless MS-1000, can start to play so bad all of a sudden ? He can't even go deep in small events? I'm sorry but I can't explain that one, no one probably can beside Djokovic himself.
 
Meles said:
The race is simple. He's 18th so far and keeps losing early in events. What he's done in the past has no effect other than that he's still getting good seeding which will dry up if he doesn't start defending his Spring points. Rankings still effect seedings, but again he's currently 18th for the season and this has always been a strong part of the year for him.

The problem is players like Kyrgios, Federer, and Dimitrov are looking almost like locks for WTF with their current levels. Now Thiem is feasting on a weak IW draw and looking very solid for top 8 status and byes at all the masters 1000 events. Thiem also has played into the best form of his career, so with him and Nadal competive on clay along with Murray, it won't take much for Novak to be in a big hole even after the clay season. Novak may be arrogant enough to skip several Masters 1000s which is his right to do with his seniority.
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Man, it's almost like you are jinxing Thiem by over-hyping him. :(

Give him some time to solidify some things...
 
I voted that he'll be outside the top 10. I think he'll sit out a portion of the year to stew or consider leaving the sport entirely. After watching him up close this week at IW, I say he's done. He's at the stage of Jim Courier when Jim brought out a paperback book to read during changeovers. Not kidding, he has no fire in the belly.
 
BeatlesFan said:
I voted that he'll be outside the top 10. I think he'll sit out a portion of the year to stew or consider leaving the sport entirely. After watching him up close this week at IW, I say he's done. He's at the stage of Jim Courier when Jim brought out a paperback book to read during changeovers. Not kidding, he has no fire in the belly.
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If that's the case, why would he carry on? He said recently that, although it is no longer his #1 priority, he still enjoys playing tennis and has the hunger to recover the top spot. He said that he would no longer bother playing if that ceases to be the case.
 
Meles said:
Nole is 18th in the race as it stands. Federer, Nadal, Dimitrov, Thiem, Wawrinka, Murray, Nishikori, Kyrgios, Zverev, and even Tsonga, Del Potro, and Raonic stand in his way. Its a minefield in 2017 and Djokovic has been hurt by tough draws in his last two events extending his period of light play and preventing him from reaching top form. Without the quick realization that he needs to play a heavy schedule its hard to see him making WTF.o_O
Race2017.png
Click to expand...

You do realize that if he wins one M1000 tournament, he leapfrogs like 10 of those guys?

:cool:
 
mike danny said:
If Dimitrov keeps having these Sock losses, he won't qualify for the WTF.
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Sock has been a matchup issue for Dimitrov and he did great damage with his forehand. I wouldn't read too much into it as Dimi had been off a while before IW and a touch rusty.
 
This is a pointless thread, as it's still early days and Djokovic at 70% is better than most on that list (not named Federer/Nadal/Murray), and the likes of Wawa, Thiem, Kyrgios et al are too inconsistent to be guaranteeing them a spot before Djoko. Even if he declines by 20-30% he's ahead of them. We saw that with Fed back in 2010/11, he declined but was still ahead of everyone else not named Djokovic or Nadal.
 
Druss said:
This is a pointless thread, as it's still early days and Djokovic at 70% is better than most on that list (not named Federer/Nadal/Murray), and the likes of Wawa, Thiem, Kyrgios et al are too inconsistent to be guaranteeing them a spot before Djoko. Even if he declines by 20-30% he's ahead of them. We saw that with Fed back in 2010/11, he declined but was still ahead of everyone else not named Djokovic or Nadal.
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The word I heard on the ground is that Dimitrov and Thiem looked excellent at IW. If Djokovic doesn't get his act together a lot of people will be beating him. Thiem is much better than this time last year and Djokovic much worse. Kyrgios much better, Dimitrov, etc. Djokovic is in a death spiral with these early exits.
BeatlesFan said:
I voted that he'll be outside the top 10. I think he'll sit out a portion of the year to stew or consider leaving the sport entirely. After watching him up close this week at IW, I say he's done. He's at the stage of Jim Courier when Jim brought out a paperback book to read during changeovers. Not kidding, he has no fire in the belly.
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Kudos for your on the ground observations. I'd really like to hear anything else about these other WTF contenders. My secret mission with this thread is to show that we are into a transition period. Unfortunately, I think it may take Kyrgios beating Fed and finishing the Big 4 off before the semis for this to really dawn on people. The points stats are all there for a Djokovic slacking off to be shut out of WTF.
 
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