Djokovic's #1 ranking under serious attack...

powerangle

Legend
...by Nadal.

Novak needed to outperform Rafa after Wimbledon (which he still can of course), but so far has been outperformed by Rafa. The chances for Rafa ending the year #1 is getting better and better. I still give Novak the edge at this point (slightly)...but if Rafa wins the US Open, I should think Novak's fate is practically sealed at that point (unless Rafa ends up not playing any of the fall tournies, including WTF, for some reason...or if Novak cleans up all fall tournies, including WTF).

What do you guys think?
 

90's Clay

Banned
... And here most thought Nadal would never sniff #1 again. He will have it in a few short months if he keeps this level up.
 

RNadal

Professional
I'd actually be quite surprised if the Novak hold it. He has to defend USO final, Shanghai and WTF titles, if I'm not mistaken. And Rafa has only points to gain.
 

Clarky21

Banned
Is Nadal launching grenades and approaching Cvac's ranking in a tank or something? Lol. I still don't see Nadal taking Cvac's ranking. Cvac is the fav for the USO, and will outperform Nadal in during the fall season, securing the #1 ranking in the process.
 

dgbeclih600

Rookie
Is Nadal launching grenades and approaching Cvac's ranking in a tank or something? Lol. I still don't see Nadal taking Cvac's ranking. Cvac is the fav for the USO, and will outperform Nadal in during the fall season, securing the #1 ranking in the process.
Are you not full of eating that crap you talk all the time?
 

kishnabe

Talk Tennis Guru
Is Nadal launching grenades and approaching Cvac's ranking in a tank or something? Lol. I still don't see Nadal taking Cvac's ranking. Cvac is the fav for the USO, and will outperform Nadal in during the fall season, securing the #1 ranking in the process.
You say that while Rafa wins Tournament after Tournament.

Nadal: 1 GS, 5 MS, 2 500, 1 250

Djokovic: 1 GS, 1 MS, 1 500

Clearly Nadal is the number 1 player and should end there this year while you still being a negative Nancy!
 

90's Clay

Banned
Nole is spiraling downhill and fast. Maybe the FASTEST free fall Ive seen in quite a while.

He went from deadly unstoppable peak in 2011 to average form at best in 2012 (outside of Australia) to complete mugging in 2013.

It was expected because of how draining it is to play his style of game but I didn't expect this kind of dip from Nole. At least not for 2-3 years anyways.

He looked ok at RG, HORRIBLE at Wimbledon, and Junior Level since. Hes not holding onto that #1 very much longer if this is how he is going to continue to play

Im actually surprised Nole is experience such a dip in level when you consider while he has a taxing game, hes still young when with much less mileage on him than Nadal.

Very surprising.
 

Clarky21

Banned
Nole is spiraling downhill and fast. Maybe the FASTEST free fall Ive seen in quite a while.

He went from deadly unstoppable peak in 2011 to average form at best in 2012 (outside of Australia) to complete mugging in 2013.

It was expected because of how draining it is to play his style of game but I didn't expect this kind of dip from Nole. At least not for 2-3 years anyways.

He looked ok at RG, HORRIBLE at Wimbledon, and Junior Level since. Hes not holding onto that #1 very much longer if this is how he is going to continue to play

Im actually surprised Nole is experience such a dip in level when you consider while he has a taxing game, hes still young when with much less mileage on him than Nadal.

Very surprising.
He made the final there so it couldn't have been that horrible.

IIRC, Nadal has only played a little over 100 more career matches than Cvac has.
 

90's Clay

Banned
He made the final there so it couldn't have been that horrible.

IIRC, Nadal has only played a little over 100 more career matches than Cvac has.
Overrall maybe not. His level in the final though was just atrocious.

Maybe he should follow Nadal and take some time off? Maybe it wouldn't hurt.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
On Monday, Novak will have 11, 580 points. If Rafa wins Cincy, he will have 8, 860 points. So, if Rafa wins USO, he will have 10, 860 points. Djoko will need to make at least the semi to remain #1 after USO (he would have 11, 100 points if he lost in semi).
Honestly, Rafa deserves the #1 this year, the way he's been playing. Djoko has been subpar especially on his strong surface (all 4 hard court masters). He can't stay #1 forever without winning titles. The last title he won was M-C in April. It seems he got bad karma afterwards for daring toppling Rafa in his best event ;)
 
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timnz

Legend
You say that while Rafa wins Tournament after Tournament.

Nadal: 1 GS, 5 MS, 2 500, 1 250

Djokovic: 1 GS, 1 MS, 1 500

Clearly Nadal is the number 1 player and should end there this year while you still being a negative Nancy!
Referring the bolded bit. I agree it is likely, but a little presumptous perhaps?
 

ScottleeSV

Professional
Nole pretty much now has to retain the US Open to even have a sniff of a chance of stopping Rafa retaining No 1.

Unless Nole finishes the season on a blinding winning streak reminiscent of 2011, Nadal is no 1.

This was meant to be the time of the season Djokovic and Murray stepped up and showed everyone why they're the best hard courters in the world, and they just haven't done it. They're only one defeat in the US Open away now from having to write the whole summer off as a complete disaster. Djokovic in particular has really gone down the swanny since winning the Australian Open.
 
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Def

Semi-Pro
I'd actually be quite surprised if the Novak hold it. He has to defend USO final, Shanghai and WTF titles, if I'm not mistaken. And Rafa has only points to gain.
That doesn't really matter when we are talking about YE#1, its just about points this year.
 

Cosmic_Colin

Professional
ATP Race Points

It makes more sense to look at the race points than the official ranking points at this time of year. This is only points earned in 2013:

1 Rafael Nadal 8610 (Probably 9010 in a few hours)
2 Novak Djokovic 6770
3 Andy Murray 5430

So Nadal will have a lead of 2,240, which Novak will need to overturn before the end of the year. The big tournaments left are:

USO - 2000
Beijing - 500
Tokyo - 500
Shanghai - 1000
Paris Indoors - 1000
WTF - 1500

Total: 6500

To get a lead of over 2,240 Novak really needs to outperform Nadal. He'd have to win the majority of these, or if he only reaches QF - F stage Nadal would have to lose very early indeed.

So in summary I think it's going to be difficult for Novak to hold on to #1, and I expect the year end rankings to be #1 Nadal, #2 Djokovic, #3 Murray.
 
Nadal will be lucky to make it to the finals. I just don't see it happening. In all likely hood we are going to so Murray vs Novak in the final.

The last match of Nadal and Novak was too damn close, and we all know Murray has been playing possum. It will be a different story come USO.

Federer looked pretty damn good at Cincy, and at this point I 100% give him WTF. He is not going to retire any time soon, and if he ever addresses his real issues, could grab #1 again far sooner than Nadal ever will.
 

Cosmic_Colin

Professional
Nadal will be lucky to make it to the finals. I just don't see it happening. In all likely hood we are going to so Murray vs Novak in the final.

The last match of Nadal and Novak was too damn close, and we all know Murray has been playing possum. It will be a different story come USO.

Federer looked pretty damn good at Cincy, and at this point I 100% give him WTF. He is not going to retire any time soon, and if he ever addresses his real issues, could grab #1 again far sooner than Nadal ever will.
The extent of Nadal's lead in the race points is so high that if Novak won the USO and Nadal lost 1st round, they'd be roughly level pegging on points. After that it could go either way for the rest of the year.
 

hrstrat57

Hall of Fame
The last 2 matches in Cinci the level of Nadal play is the highest I have ever seen. The spin, placement and power of his lefty forehand is ridiculous.

We shall see if it continues in NYC....
 

powerangle

Legend
Novak has only himself to blame for digging such a big hole...he's been very listless recently.

He has to practically win the US Open (since Nadal himself is likely to make it the latter stages of the Open even if he doesn't win it) to grab the advantage back (since he should outperform Nadal in the fall tournies prior to WTF...but then again who knows these days)
 

rodrigoamaral

Hall of Fame
if NADAL shows up for half of the remaining events and gets to the quarters, hes the year end #1 without a doubt.. good luck
 

bullfan

Legend
Nole is spiraling downhill and fast. Maybe the FASTEST free fall Ive seen in quite a while.

He went from deadly unstoppable peak in 2011 to average form at best in 2012 (outside of Australia) to complete mugging in 2013.

It was expected because of how draining it is to play his style of game but I didn't expect this kind of dip from Nole. At least not for 2-3 years anyways.

He looked ok at RG, HORRIBLE at Wimbledon, and Junior Level since. Hes not holding onto that #1 very much longer if this is how he is going to continue to play

Im actually surprised Nole is experience such a dip in level when you consider while he has a taxing game, hes still young when with much less mileage on him than Nadal.

Very surprising.
I wonder if Nole was more injured during the DC match with USA. He's had a few bad slides. I wonder if he's been pretty shaken over that scare.

Of course, the post indicating Novak was burnt out could also be spot on.
 

brica8

New User
I think Nadal has a good chance of gaining #1 and maintaining it for a long time. If you, think about it, he's #2 in the world with no points at 3 of the 4 slams. If Nadal can get either the US or Australian Open and then get another clay court sweep, he'll be in really good shape. Djokovic will need to reach 2011 form to get it back from Rafa
 

T-Noone

Professional
If Djokovic does not make the final and Nadal wins the USO, he will be the new #1. That's certainly plausible, but I don't think it will happen. If Nadal ends up closing this year as number 1, however, I don't think he'll be able to defend it all next year. Too taxing on the knees.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
If Djokovic does not make the final and Nadal wins the USO, he will be the new #1. That's certainly plausible, but I don't think it will happen. If Nadal ends up closing this year as number 1, however, I don't think he'll be able to defend it all next year. Too taxing on the knees.
Zero points from Doha, AO and Miami.

Then there's Monte Carlo which most would think he'll win and gain points.

Would also have to think that he'd go further than 1st round at Wimbledon.

So he doesn't necessarily have to defend every HC title next year to maintain the ranking, as long as he does well at the HC Masters next year and has better results at the majors, then he'd be in a good spot to defend it.
 

bullfan

Legend
If Djokovic does not make the final and Nadal wins the USO, he will be the new #1. That's certainly plausible, but I don't think it will happen. If Nadal ends up closing this year as number 1, however, I don't think he'll be able to defend it all next year. Too taxing on the knees.
I agree. Maybe there will be alternating years.... of dominance.
 

xan

Hall of Fame
even if rafa doesn't end up no1 this year he has a great chance to at least get it temporarily after AO next year.
 

Bud

Bionic Poster
If Nadal reaches the USO Final, it's pretty much a given he'll end the year as #1
 

FreeBird

Legend
Novak has only himself to blame for digging such a big hole...he's been very listless recently.

He has to practically win the US Open (since Nadal himself is likely to make it the latter stages of the Open even if he doesn't win it) to grab the advantage back (since he should outperform Nadal in the fall tournies prior to WTF...but then again who knows these days)
Only one final in 7 MS pretty much sums up the level of Djokovic's game in MS. These past 6 months have been frustrating for a Novak fan. Swift rides into later stages of Grandslam followed by poor performance or choke making you skeptical about whether his early rounds' performances at USO will bear any relevance in regard to his chances to win.
 
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swizzy

Hall of Fame
I have a hard understanding what has gone on with novak. being spent after the delpo semi doesn't explain his Wimbledon final.. that was the flimsiest performance I have seen in a grand slam in recent memory.. just awful.. the French open match was epic..he just happened to be playing rafa on his recent rise to peak performance.. so it's in him. just not getting over the hump. the us open is a must win for him to right the ship.
 

mattennis

Hall of Fame
Only one final in 7 MS pretty much sums up the level of Djokovic's game in MS. These past 6 months have been frustrating for a Novak fan. Swift rides into later stages of Grandslam followed by poor performance or choke making you skeptical about whether his early rounds' performances at USO will bear any relevance in regard to his chances to win.
Yes, in the current era the M-1000 tournaments are very important for the nº1 ranking.

In past decades it wasn't (you could get the same amount of points in other 8-10 different tournaments, outside of the "now called M-1000 equivalents").

But in this decade, where the difference between a M-1000 tournament and the rest (non-GS and non-WTF) is huge in points, to be nº1 these M-1000 tournaments are indeed important.

Nadal has won 5 of them this season (and another final) which is worth 5600 points (almost like 3 GS tournaments). He is starting to look like the year-end-nº1 of 2013.

Obviously US OPEN, Shanghai, Paris and WTF (5500 points) will decide still, but Djokovic is starting to have it seriously difficult.
 

bullfan

Legend
While I would think Nadal should be favored, I wonder if he's going to lose early again, and only focus on Masters 1000, except for FO?
 

MTF07

Semi-Pro
Nole is spiraling downhill and fast. Maybe the FASTEST free fall Ive seen in quite a while.

He went from deadly unstoppable peak in 2011 to average form at best in 2012 (outside of Australia) to complete mugging in 2013.

It was expected because of how draining it is to play his style of game but I didn't expect this kind of dip from Nole. At least not for 2-3 years anyways.

He looked ok at RG, HORRIBLE at Wimbledon, and Junior Level since. Hes not holding onto that #1 very much longer if this is how he is going to continue to play

Im actually surprised Nole is experience such a dip in level when you consider while he has a taxing game, hes still young when with much less mileage on him than Nadal.

Very surprising.
Okay, let's set some things straight here. Djokovic didn't look "horrible" at Wimbledon by any stretch. Did he even lose any sets until the final? Sure he played a bad match in the final against Murray, but it happened.

Djokovic played a great RG and should have beaten Nadal there. His summer hard court swing was disappointing so far, but if he wins the Open, he'll have two majors this year, which by default will make him player of the year. All is not lost.
 

bullfan

Legend
Okay, let's set some things straight here. Djokovic didn't look "horrible" at Wimbledon by any stretch. Did he even lose any sets until the final? Sure he played a bad match in the final against Murray, but it happened.

Djokovic played a great RG and should have beaten Nadal there. His summer hard court swing was disappointing so far, but if he wins the Open, he'll have two majors this year, which by default will make him player of the year. All is not lost.
Actually, Novak was playing with illegal shoes for most of Wimbledon.

Secondly, Novak was lucky Nadal had a mental lapse when he was ahead in set 2 or it would have been over in 3. Nadal should have won in 3, 4 max.
 

Clarky21

Banned
While I would think Nadal should be favored, I wonder if he's going to lose early again, and only focus on Masters 1000, except for FO?
If he's going to lose early at the slams and only focus on masters tournaments, he should just call it a day.
 

Clarky21

Banned
Actually, Novak was playing with illegal shoes for most of Wimbledon.

Secondly, Novak was lucky Nadal had a mental lapse when he was ahead in set 2 or it would have been over in 3. Nadal should have won in 3, 4 max.
We agree on something for once. Nadal never should have been in a 4th set at RG much less a 5th. Cvac was the lucky recipient of Nadal's decline in concentration and focus, otherwise, he would have kissed his rear end goodbye in straights.

And yes, Cvac was playing with illegal shoes at Wimby up until the semis. He cheated his way through that slam, and would have continued to wear those illegal shoes even he hadn't gotten caught. He very well could have won that final against Andy if not for being busted, which would have been outrageous. He really should have been disqualified, imo.
 

winstonplum

Hall of Fame
Agreed. He was defeated by Roger, then Berdych, like you said, wasn't he? Or maybe...
He actually lost to Benjamin Becker in straight sets. We're all just living in a dream world where Nadal is winning almost every tournament he enters. Back in reality, Novak has one seven straight MS and is one slam away from the CYGS. Open your eyes and stop pretending! :shock:
 

winstonplum

Hall of Fame
We need some more magic. Murray falls on Nole's half and beats him in the semi; Rafa beats Murray in final. Nadal's 13th slam, new #1, and best year of his career. Here we go.
 

sportsfan1

Hall of Fame
Rafa and Murray will most likely NOT be in Djoker's half. A combination of ranking and luck could result in a really favorable draw for the Djoker and he could get the title playing maybe only one top opponent.
 
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