The writing is on the wall and the Rafa fans and the Fed fans who deeply respect and fear Rafa just aren't seeing it. Rafa's game is weak right now. Hell, he's not even keeping pace with FERRER in 2015. There is NO WAY Rafa is winning RG this year. The guy won RGs in the past with endless grinding over 5 sets and the Rafa I've seen in 2015 is struggling to grind even THREE sets. Its not gonna happen. I'm calling it right now, Rafa won't make the RG finals this year. Djoker or Kei will win RG. (90% Djoker, 10% punchers chance to kei)
What makes Kei Nishikori a serious pick? He's won 5 matches in his career at RG. His best run there was a R16 in 2013 where he lost to Nadal in 3 easy sets (4-6, 1-6, 3-6). People seem to put an awful lot of stock in the fact that he almost beat Nadal at Madrid.
I could make the same case for Dimitrov. He very nearly ended Nadal's amazing streak at Monte Carlo in 2013 before cramping ultimately prevented him from finishing the job. He's 35-22 in his career on clay (Nishikori is 33-17). Here's what both guys have done in the last two years on clay (and who they have lost to):
Dimitrov
2013 - Monte Carlo (QF, Nadal); Barcelona (R32, Robredo); Madrid (R16, Wawrinka); Rome (R32, Gasquet); Roland Garros (R32, Djokovic); Bastad (SF, Verdasco)
2014 - Monte Carlo (R16, Ferrer); Bucharest (W); Madrid (R16, Berdych); Rome (SF, Nadal); Roland Garros (R128, Karlovic)
23-10
Nishikori
2013 - Barcelona (R16, Ramos-Vinolas); Madrid (QF, Andujar); Rome (R32, Chardy); Roland Garros (R16, Nadal)
2014 - Barcelona (W); Madrid (F, Nadal); Roland Garros (R128, Klizan)
18-6