Djokovic's Forehand Now Officially Overrated?

Tuckman

Rookie
This is sort of in direct response to the recent "Unpopular opinion" thread that Djokovic's FH is better than Federer's.

Have we now officially crossed the point where Djokovic's FH has gone from underrated to overrated? There are many many responses to that thread arguing "Fed's FH is better, but Djokovic's is top 5/10 all time."

I wonder if this is still a step too far. Let me preface that I've gained a lot of respect for Djokovic's FH, especially in recent years - 2023 comes to mind, and he was very clinical in the AO 26 SF vs Sinner off that wing. And of course his FH peak in 2011 is up there with some of the great FH years ever.

But with Djokovic, there are four problems to this "his FH is one of the GOATs" argument:
1. Separating longevity from peak.
2. Separating physicality and movement from his FH itself.
3. The competition of all-time great FHs.
4. FH underperformance in key matches where he was unable to put away serve +1s (cough, in many of his matches vs Wawrinka, cough).

Yes, Djoko has hung around with one of the better FHs on tour for, well, essentially the better part of two decades (I rate his more aggressive 2008 FH, especially at AO, pretty highly). But in any given year, I don't think you can make the argument that he had the best FH on tour outside of (in my mind) 2011, 2023, and perhaps 2021 and 2018. As an isolated shot, at least, I would rate Fed, Nadal, Lendl, Courier, Borg, Sampras, Agassi, DelPo, maybe even prime Gonzalez over it. Muster, Ferrero, Moya, and Wawa also tended to have more weight of shot from the FH. In recent years, I think it's fair to say that Alcaraz, Sinner, and even Thiem had better FHs (although I likely take Djoko's FH all-time over Thiem, he's been outplayed off that wing in some of their battles at AO, ATP Finals, etc). Fonseca's FH has a lot of potential too - such clean technique.

Fonseca actually displays a good contrast between physicality and FH technique. As I see it, Djokovic is so dominant in terms of movement and physicality that it masks the isolated capability of his FH on its own. It's still great, but not top 5 OAT.

This is in no way an argument to disparage Djokovic. He has an incredible FH, one of the best in absorbing and redirecting power. And yes, there is more to a FH than its offensive capability. But as an exercise, indulge me: would any of the players mentioned trade FHs with Novak? Could you build most of a player's game off the FH in the way that some of these guys do? Did some of these FH-centric players flame out because their FH declined, not another aspect of their game? Probably not.

(Separate but related: highly recommend this video. I know Roddick's commentary gets a lot of flak for being too self-deprecating, but loved his breakdown on why certain FHs are so good.)
 
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And of course his FH peak in 2011 is up there with some of the great FH years ever.

But with Djokovic, there are four problems to this "his FH is one of the GOATs" argument:
1. Separating longevity from peak.
Yes, Djoko has hung around with one of the better FHs on tour for, well, essentially the better part of two decades
The rest I don't have a massive problem with but this was funny
 
You just linked a video of Roddick saying he'd rate Djokovic's forehand top 5 or top 6 all time so you basically just shot yourself in the foot. There's so many things that are wrong in the write up to even go into, and this didn't need a thread.
I'm not linking the video to support my argument per se, just a separate piece of analysis to get the conversation going. If you don't agree with my thoughts here, that's totally fine
 
The rest I don't have a massive problem with but this was funny
lmao got me there :-D The points I was inelegantly making was that 1) Djoko has had great FH peaks but hasn't necessarily sustained it as a weapon over the course of his career, as opposed to some of the truly all time great FHs 2) Having a consistently GOOD FH alongside having GOAT longevity ≠ having a GOAT tier FH. Fair play though on how the nuance of my idea gets totally lost here though
 
A brief compilation of the Djokovic forehand that the Federer fans will enjoy:
Very clutch for sure - and I give Djokovic a lot of credit for his FH (+ FH return) in those 2010 and 2011 USO matches vs Fed. But consistently a top 10 OAT shot? I don't know
 
You can't be the GOAT without having a top 5 forehand and backhand, especially if you're not exceptionally good at serve, like Federer was. By top 5 you don't look for players who can hit bombs occasionally, have flashy forehands, but consistent, precise, strong forehand, tactical weapon, and Djokovic's most certainly is one.​
 
And even then, I'm not sure I'd fully agree! (outside of perhaps USO where he was bludgeoning some of his FHs.)
Yeah, the competition is fierce, so it can't be helped.

Did you watch the 2023 RG final?
The official RG highlights just came out the other day, but that was an incredible FH performance.
That was probably one of the GOAT FH performances.

I recommend checking out the wasp report for details.
 
You just linked a video of Roddick saying he'd rate Djokovic's forehand top 5 or top 6 all time so you basically just shot yourself in the foot. There's so many things that are wrong in the write up to even go into, and this didn't need a thread.
it is funny when the same rodick (and every other analytic or player/former player) says that nole is the GOAT it is not official!
 
A brief compilation of the Djokovic forehand that the Federer fans will enjoy:
6 MPs
4 FH winners (no1e)
2 FH errors (fed)

but if you look just at W match. fed was better in all stats and in games. but nole won his MPs and all 3 TB. nole did 0 UE in 3 TB! look just at TB, there the match was decide besides the MPs. feds FH is like the best rifle that get stuck when you need id the most. so is it the really best rifle if it left you in **** when you need it the most?!?!
 
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I have no clear way of assigning a ranking to it. Methodology-wise, though, I don't think that you can discount physicality and movement. It's part of the deal: players don't hit off a tee

I would separate out the forehand ROS and forehand volleys as separate shots.
 
He has the greatest return in history, that’s not only because of his backhand it’s because of his forehand as well.

Novak has the best blend of defense and offense as well as most clutch forehand plus longevity

That’s what makes it the best
 
Yes you can. You have to have one of the two being top 5, but not both
Nope, you can't. The point is, Djokovic's forehand is hugely underestimated shot. It is one of the best. He doesn't have the Del Potro's power, Federer's effortless or Nadal's spin, but it's been consistent and reliable shot for almost 20 years already. He paints the lines with it, dictates the tempo, builds the point.​
 
Nope, you can't. The point is, Djokovic's forehand is hugely underestimated shot. It is one of the best. He doesn't have the Del Potro's power, Federer's effortless or Nadal's spin, but it's been consistent and reliable shot for almost 20 years already. He paints the lines with it, dictates the tempo, builds the point.​
To be clear, you are implying that Federer’s BH was a top 5 ATG BH at the time he was crowned “the GOAT” from 2009-2020 (/ Nadal’s BH was top 5 if you think he was briefly GOAT in 2022). Can go even further back and extend that to Sampras too in the late 90s

Fed’s BH didn’t suddenly become ‘non top 5’ the moment Nadal hit 22 slams (/ Djoker hit 21 / whatever you think the moment Djoker became GOAT was). It was either never in the top 5 BHs to begin with or always was even after he got surpassed. And I’m pretty sure you and most other people here think it’s the former

Reality is that Sampras became GOAT off the back of a top 5 ATG serve and FH (at the time), and top 5-10 volleys (crowded field); Federer became GOAT off the back of a top 2 FH (the GOAT FH imo), a top 10 ATG serve, top 5 ATG slice and drop shot, top 5 ATG movement, etc, etc, and Djoker became GOAT off the back of The GOAT BH, a top 2 ATG RoS, top 3 ATG movement, and top 2 ATG durability / longevity. But his FH is not top 5.
 
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Of course Djokovic has an incredible forehand. Nobody without a great forehand will ever get to 24 slams since it is the most important shot. In 2011 it was particularly good outhitting Nadal in winners in 4 out of their six meetings. This being said, stil Djoko's forehand is the 'worst' of the big three.
 
images


For anyone who still doesn’t think Djoker has an incredible forehand btw, this is what he would have looked like without it
 
Djokovic's forehand is unbreakable, however he's more of a redirector than a pace/spin generator.

He can hit a big spin FH, and he's had some great FH days/seasons, but it's not been nearly as reliable as say Fedal's.
 
For those that are saying Djokovic doesn't have at least a top ten FH, that is pretty damning for Federer, Nadal and everyone else that they got beaten by a guy who's forehand isn't even top ten material.
 
Djokovic's forehand is unbreakable, however he's more of a redirector than a pace/spin generator.

He can hit a big spin FH, and he's had some great FH days/seasons, but it's not been nearly as reliable as say Fedal's.
Djokovic has great timing and he's very adept at returning angles, but he doesn't have the racket head speed of say Fedal, the sheer power of a Delpotro, nor the aggressive footwork that allows some of the FH GOATs to have devastating I/O's - things that really takes the best forehands to the next level...He's one of the absolute best all-time with the FH return, and he's extremely solid hitting from the deuce court - which maybe covers 80% of the game, but that extra 20% is why he's not anywhere close to the conversation for the best forehand of all-time IMO.

The idea that his forehand is better now that it was in say 2011-2016 is just a joke as well, he doesn't have the same shot tolerance so he's taking more risks with it - that doesn't make it a better shot, it's just a strategic and tactical decision based on where his body is in his later career. Those same people who are impressed by his current forehand are the same ones who are paradoxically unimpressed by the glory of "winner machine" peak Federer.
 
Agree. Don't like the idea of removing physicality and movement from the metrics of the assessment.
I mean, guys like Fritz and Berdych have excellent groundies off both wings when they don't need to move. When they do need to move, they are far less impressive.
Aside from that, agree with NatF just above
 
images


For anyone who still doesn’t think Djoker has an incredible forehand btw, this is what he would have looked like without it
Even if he had Murray's FH roughly I still think he would be ahead of Murray even though to a lesser degree.
 
I mean, guys like Fritz and Berdych have excellent groundies off both wings when they don't need to move. When they do need to move, they are far less impressive.
Aside from that, agree with NatF just above
Some guys are great with time, or when the ball is in a narrow range of the courts geometry but the great forehands can improvise or hit great shots in nearly any situation. For example a guy Roddick mentioned, Delpotro, had a killer running forehand whereas neither of those guys do. Now he was a better mover than them yes but I don't think you can separate athleticism in this instance, it's not just movement but power at the end of your range (something Nadal excels at) - ofcourse technique plays a role too.
 
Some guys are great with time, or when the ball is in a narrow range of the courts geometry but the great forehands can improvise or hit great shots in nearly any situation. For example a guy Roddick mentioned, Delpotro, had a killer running forehand whereas neither of those guys do. Now he was a better mover than them yes but I don't think you can separate athleticism in this instance, it's not just movement but power at the end of your range (something Nadal excels at) - ofcourse technique plays a role too.
Yeah, Delpo had a legendary running forehand (basically won him the 2nd set and eventually the match in the US Open 09 as I'm sure you remember). End of your range power is a good term for it.
Djoko's running forehand is pretty outstanding to me too, to be clear. I don't think his forehand is quite up there with the very, very best, but he's not too far off either. And there's an argument for him having the 3rd best forehand in the past 20 years (not saying, I concur - just saying it's not outlandish to argue that).
 
The idea that his forehand is better now that it was in say 2011-2016 is just a joke as well, he doesn't have the same shot tolerance so he's taking more risks with it
I agree with your post but in fairness, the one standout quality of the prime Djokovic FH was probably shot tolerance. There are certainly matches in the last few years where it broke down more than you'd see from any prime version, but broadly speaking I don't feel like I'm seeing a ton of difference in neutral rallies, more so when he has to move for it and maybe can't sort his feet out like his prime years anymore, and that's where the low percentage stuff tends to come in. In my opinion it's at least as much of him needing to change how he uses his FH as it is the FH as an isolated shot declining
 
I agree with your post but in fairness, the one standout quality of the prime Djokovic FH was probably shot tolerance. There are certainly matches in the last few years where it broke down more than you'd see from any prime version, but broadly speaking I don't feel like I'm seeing a ton of difference in neutral rallies, more so when he has to move for it and maybe can't sort his feet out like his prime years anymore, and that's where the low percentage stuff tends to come in. In my opinion it's at least as much of him needing to change how he uses his FH as it is the FH as an isolated shot declining
I guess what I'm saying is that Djokovic also had different gears to his forehand during his peak - there were times where he could be passive, but I don't think against the likes of say Federer, Nadal or Murray his more aggressive forehand of recent years would actually pay dividends. It’s a slightly faster ball — but it’s still not a heavy ball. So I don't think it would force the issue against actually elite players. Federer and especially Nadal hit forehands that were heavy, were hard to time and drew defensive replies with more than just their pace. Just adding a few kilometres per hour without that extra heaviness is overrated - Djokovic isn't in that big hitter category even still.

The current field — with the exception of Alcaraz — just isn’t as complete. They don’t transition from defence to offence as well, they don’t have the same shot tolerance and they don’t have the same variety. Djokovic doesn't have the same legs and his opponents can't punish him in the same way so strategically taking on that extra risk is the way to go. But it doesn't mean his forehand is actually better.
 
This is sort of in direct response to the recent "Unpopular opinion" thread that Djokovic's FH is better than Federer's.

Have we now officially crossed the point where Djokovic's FH has gone from underrated to overrated? There are many many responses to that thread arguing "Fed's FH is better, but Djokovic's is top 5/10 all time."

I wonder if this is still a step too far. Let me preface that I've gained a lot of respect for Djokovic's FH, especially in recent years - 2023 comes to mind, and he was very clinical in the AO 26 SF vs Sinner off that wing. And of course his FH peak in 2011 is up there with some of the great FH years ever.

But with Djokovic, there are four problems to this "his FH is one of the GOATs" argument:
1. Separating longevity from peak.
2. Separating physicality and movement from his FH itself.
3. The competition of all-time great FHs.
4. FH underperformance in key matches where he was unable to put away serve +1s (cough, in many of his matches vs Wawrinka, cough).

Yes, Djoko has hung around with one of the better FHs on tour for, well, essentially the better part of two decades (I rate his more aggressive 2008 FH, especially at AO, pretty highly). But in any given year, I don't think you can make the argument that he had the best FH on tour outside of (in my mind) 2011, 2023, and perhaps 2021 and 2018. As an isolated shot, at least, I would rate Fed, Nadal, Lendl, Courier, Borg, Sampras, Agassi, DelPo, maybe even prime Gonzalez over it. Muster, Ferrero, Moya, and Wawa also tended to have more weight of shot from the FH. In recent years, I think it's fair to say that Alcaraz, Sinner, and even Thiem had better FHs (although I likely take Djoko's FH all-time over Thiem, he's been outplayed off that wing in some of their battles at AO, ATP Finals, etc). Fonseca's FH has a lot of potential too - such clean technique.

Fonseca actually displays a good contrast between physicality and FH technique. As I see it, Djokovic is so dominant in terms of movement and physicality that it masks the isolated capability of his FH on its own. It's still great, but not top 5 OAT.

This is in no way an argument to disparage Djokovic. He has an incredible FH, one of the best in absorbing and redirecting power. And yes, there is more to a FH than its offensive capability. But as an exercise, indulge me: would any of the players mentioned trade FHs with Novak? Could you build most of a player's game off the FH in the way that some of these guys do? Did some of these FH-centric players flame out because their FH declined, not another aspect of their game? Probably not.

(Separate but related: highly recommend this video. I know Roddick's commentary gets a lot of flak for being too self-deprecating, but loved his breakdown on why certain FHs are so good.)
Federer’s Forehand was always better otherwise he could not have survived in this baseline era for that long
 
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