Djokovic's return game and baseline game at Wimbledon was at an all time highest

[ibbi]

I think his 14 and 15 Wimbledon runs were 2 of the best Slam victories ever. Tougher to put up such gaudy numbers when you're repeatedly facing grass happy chappies.

 

[RF-18]

So what you're saying is we should ignore context when looking at stats?

I'm not saying anything. I just posted stats.

Then if you and abmk and metsman wanna talk it down by saying how his opponents were CRAPOLA and Djoko didn't have to do much, that's up to you. I don't care.

 

[swordtennis]

I'm not saying anything. I just posted stats.

Then if you and abmk and metsman wanna talk it down by saying how his opponents were CRAPOLA and Djoko didn't have to do much, that's up to you. I don't care.

3-1 @ the AO is really 0-4. #REELZSTATS

 

[metsman]

According to the stats it was the best returning performance from Djokovic on GRASS in his career. This wasn't about him as a player or all surfaces. You must keep up here and not wander around on other things.

While at it, I should say his serving stats was not on par with his previous serving performances here, but couldn't these return numbers make up for that slight regress in serving?

No, according to stats, it was the highest % of return points or whatever. Your interpretation of taking that at face value with no context paints that as the best returning performance from Djokovic. This fundamental disconnect is why 'advanced stats' in most sports besides baseball and maybe hockey is the worst. Because they are flawed, borderline garbage, stats used by people who don't know how to interpret stats. A lethal combination.

I was only referring to Wimbledon, so 2018 Djokovic is peak Djokovic at Wimbledon or at returning I take it? His serving stats were amazing as well!

 

[NatF]

I'm not saying anything. I just posted stats.

Then if you and abmk and metsman wanna talk it down by saying how his opponents were CRAPOLA and Djoko didn't have to do much, that's up to you. I don't care.

Who said anything like that? When did I say his opponents were crap?

All I said was comparing it one to one, especially something like total number of BP's needs more context...

3-1 @ the AO is really 0-4. #REELZSTATS

Your salt to post ratio is getting pretty high these days.

 

[swordtennis]

Who said anything like that? When did I say his opponents were crap?

All I said was comparing it one to one, especially something like total number of BP's needs more context...



Your salt to post ratio is getting pretty high these days.

Ok sure. Sounds good. Not sure that is the case. But fed fans will claim it so it is true. #REELZSTATS.

 

[NatF]

Ok sure. Sounds good. Not sure that is the case. But fed fans will claim it so it is true. #REELZSTATS.

Good poasting mate.

 

[Noleberic123]

yeah, if we ignore the context that Khachanov played sh*t, so did Anderson for the 1st 2 sets, Nishi couldn't protect his serve well (even more so in the last 2 sets), zebballos, sandgren were sort of walkovers.

When you actually saw the Djokovic return being put to test, he was inconsistent. returned well vs Nadal for a set and half, but went down after that.When Anderson actually served+played well in the 3rd set, djoko didn't have a single BP in that set.

I agree with you. These stats mean nothing. Djokovics return I thought wasn't on the level I wanted it to be.

 

[Noleberic123]

So 2018 peak Djokovic?

Maybe prime Djokovic?

 

[swordtennis]

Good poasting mate.

Just poastin not saltin lol

 

[uscwang]

But he was a step slower than before. Novak from 2011 or 2015 would have gotten to some of Nadal's dropshots.

 

[swordtennis]

Agreed the stats are nice but he def was not the best return game ever from him. He was having problems getting a returns back that he would be ripping back in 2015.

 

[Tennisgods]

Djokovic created 100 BP opportunities during the course of the tournament. Wich is 2nd highest number since 1992, and only the 2nd to hit triple digits. Djokovic's previous record was 96 BPs and that was in 2013. The leader is Hewitt with 110 BPs created wich was in 2002.

Djokovic's BPs in 2018 Wimbledon:

7/19 vs Sandgren (37% conversion)

6/13 vs Zeballos (46% conversion)

4/17 vs Edmund (24 % conversion)

7/14 vs Khachanov (50% conversion)

7/14 vs Nishikori (50% conversion)

4/19 vs Nadal (21% conversion)

4/4 vs Anderson (100% conversion)

In total: 39/100 (39%)
---

His conversion rate isn't too good,but when you create so many opportunities, you are going to have alot of breaks.

------------

Further, if you compare the amount of BPs Djokovic created vs his peers, there is a big difference.

The 2nd player who created the most BP opportunities in the tournament after Djokovic was Nadal, with 68 BP chances. So Djokovic was on a whole other planet with his 100.

Also If we check his return stats in this years Wimby and compare that to his other winning years at Wimbledon, we get these numbers

Return games won %

2015: 24%
2014: 23%
2011: 31%

2018: 34%

Lets check other return stats:

1st serve return % won

2015: 29%
2014: 28%
2011: 33 %

2018: 36%

2nd serve return % won

2015: 52%
2014: 55%
2011: 55%

2018: 56%

Return points won %

2015: 38%
2014: 38%
2011: 41%

2018: 43%


--------

Also, Baseline points won %

2015: 53.7%
2014: 48.6%
2011: 55.7%

2018: 55.9%

Perhaps the best riposte to those who said he was done.

 

[jm1980]

It's a small sample size for both and in such a small sample size the draw and how the opponents played can make a big difference. For the BP's created we'd need to see how many return games and return points were played as well, longer matches will have more BP chances obviously.

what NatF said :

"It's a small sample size for both and in such a small sample size the draw and how the opponents played can make a big difference. "

in 2011, he faced one big server playing atleast some good tennis - Tsonga.
no one in 2018 that fits the bill. Anderson played sh*t for the first 2 sets. When he did pick up his level in the 3rd set, Djoko didn't get a single BP.

Djoko broke Nadal 5 times in 16 return games in 2011
only 4 times in 30 return games in 2018.

of course Nadal was playing clearly better in 2018, but that's still too big of a difference. and djokovic's return+ground game played a big part in dragging Nadal down in 2011.


in 2014, he faced Stepanek SnVing well in 2R, Tsonga in 4R, Cilic in QF and fed in the final. even dimitrov in the semi was not a pushover.
much tougher to get good return stats than his 2018 draw, no ?

2015 again, Anderson who actually played well enough in 4 sets out of 5, Cilic and then Federer.
much tougher to get good return stats than his 2018 draw, no ?

No, according to stats, it was the highest % of return points or whatever. Your interpretation of taking that at face value with no context paints that as the best returning performance from Djokovic. This fundamental disconnect is why 'advanced stats' in most sports besides baseball and maybe hockey is the worst. Because they are flawed, borderline garbage, stats used by people who don't know how to interpret stats. A lethal combination.

I was only referring to Wimbledon, so 2018 Djokovic is peak Djokovic at Wimbledon or at returning I take it? His serving stats were amazing as well!

We can go a little deeper.

I gathered each opponent's main service related stats on grass for that particular season (not just Wimbledon) from the ATP website: 1st serve %, 1st serve points won %, 2nd serve points won %, service games won%, service points won%.

I then calculated the number of games they played on grass that year. The numbers are not whole because tiebreakers were converted to games based on the assumption that the average service game has 6 points (ATP historical average).

This allowed me to calculate a weighted average of these stats to approximate his opponents' serving form as a group. Here are the numbers:

Average opponents' service points won:

• 2011: 68.6%
• 2014: 70.7%
• 2015: 70.4%
• 2018: 68.5%

Average opponents' service games won:

• 2011: 87.7%
• 2014: 90.6%
• 2015: 89.3%
• 2018: 86.2%

This seems to lend credence to the idea that he's faced weaker servers this year than in years past.
These numbers suggest the strength of servers Djoko faced in his Wimbledon title runs are: 2014 > 2015 > 2011 > 2018

 

[Gary Duane]

Djokovic created 100 BP opportunities during the course of the tournament. Wich is 2nd highest number since 1992, and only the 2nd to hit triple digits. Djokovic's previous record was 96 BPs and that was in 2013. The leader is Hewitt with 110 BPs created wich was in 2002.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/return-games-won/2002/grass/all/

That supports your point. 35.26% of games on return for a grass season is phenomenal.

In general there is a mathematical relationship between points and BPs. Normally BP% is 1 to 2% higher than return points. Djokovic was a full 4% lower, which means his return points, as high as they were, were lower than they should have been because he was a bit unlucky or tense on BPs.

But even so, based on the points he won, games were very good. He was playing on a VERY high level return!

 

[MichaelNadal]

Lets prop up the Mummy

 

[ADuck]

Winning a close match doesn't always indicate mental strength. Sometimes a better player makes the match closer than it should've been because of mental lapses. Happened to Federer a lot in BO3, for example (he still wins most of those and nobody cares if it's 7-6 6-4 instead of 6-3 6-3 it could've been, so).
Djokovic was better than Nadal in the semifinal by a bigger margin than the scoreline indicates (not much better, but the scoreline literally has them equal until the very end), so that match could have been less tight had Djokovic been in peak mental form.

I certainly didn't see it like that. The only set Djokovic clearly outperformed Nadal was the first.. after that Nadal outperformed Djokovic in a similar fashion in the second and from then on it was pretty much even. Nadal was responsible for extending the match because in moments he was playing great, not much to do with Novak not being in a 'peak mental state,' actually had Novak not been in a peak mental state he'd not have taken the third set tiebreaker. There were moments Nadal was not in a 'peak mental state' either and should have won points he didn't just as you believe Novak should have.

 

[OddJack]

OP,

Those numbers happen when you are hungry, and Novak is the hungriest right now. Which is good.
He is my favorite to win US18, AO19 and RG 19

 

[hipolymer]

fish

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

I certainly didn't see it like that. The only set Djokovic clearly outperformed Nadal was the first.. after that Nadal outperformed Djokovic in a similar fashion in the second and from then on it was pretty much even.

You wish. Look at service games and see what the stats tell us:

SET 1:

Djokovic: three 15 holds, one single deuce hold, one 0 hold = deuce faced: 1 (1 game), BP faced: 0, broken: 0

Nadal: one single deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce hold (two BP saved), one break to 15, one love hold (Djoko coasting after breaking) = deuce faced: 5 (3 games), BP faced: 4 (2 games), broken: 1

Clear dominance from Djokovic, only one deuce faced with strong pressure on Nadal in every return game except for the last one after he broke.

SET 2:
Djokovic: one 30 hold, one single deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce break from 40-30 (GP) up, one break to 15 = deuce faced: 3 (2 games), BP faced: 3 (2 games), broken: 2

Nadal: one 0 hold, three double deuce holds (saving 1, 2 & 2 BPs respectively), one break to 15 = deuce faced: 6 (3 games), BP faced: 6 (4 games), broken: 1

Nadal faced more deuces in more games and twice as many BPs in twice as many games, which points out to Djokovic being the better player throughout the set, yet it was Nadal who broke twice as much - that's his typical clutch factor at work. Reminiscent of the 1st set of Wim 08 final, when Nadal faced 7 deuces and 3 BP in 2 tough games and held through, while Federer faced 0 deuces and 1 BP (30-40) in 1 game and got broken right away.

SET 3: not a single deuce faced by either player. Djok held from a tough spot at *5-5 0-30, but so did Nadal in the next game at *5-6 15-30. Nadal won two more return points before the TB, so he was the slightly better player, but Djokovic was clutcher in the breaker, true.

SET 4: Djokovic faces BP in 2 games (break 15, break to 30) and does't face deuce in his holds. Nadal faces deuce/BP in 3 games (7 deuce, 6 BP total), including triple BP when serving for the set, yet only loses serve once - again wins by being clutcher rather than plain better.

SET 5: an even set with both facing 1 deuce/BP game until 7-7 (3-4 and 4-4 respectively). Nadal had a big onslaught in that 7-7 game with 3 BP and 5 deuces, but after Djokovic survived that, he immediately pressured back and Nadal was only able to save MP once, but not again.

Nadal was responsible for extending the match because in moments he was playing great, not much to do with Novak not being in a 'peak mental state,' actually had Novak not been in a peak mental state he'd not have taken the third set tiebreaker. There were moments Nadal was not in a 'peak mental state' either and should have won points he didn't just as you believe Novak should have.

Nadal wasn't at his best either, goes without saying.

 

[ADuck]

You wish. Look at service games and see what the stats tell us:

SET 1:

Djokovic: three 15 holds, one single deuce hold, one 0 hold = deuce faced: 1 (1 game), BP faced: 0, broken: 0

Nadal: one single deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce hold (two BP saved), one break to 15, one love hold (Djoko coasting after breaking) = deuce faced: 5 (3 games), BP faced: 4 (2 games), broken: 1

Clear dominance from Djokovic, only one deuce faced with strong pressure on Nadal in every return game except for the last one after he broke.

SET 2:
Djokovic: one 30 hold, one single deuce hold (no BP), one double deuce break from 40-30 (GP) up, one break to 15 = deuce faced: 3 (2 games), BP faced: 3 (2 games), broken: 2

Nadal: one 0 hold, three double deuce holds (saving 1, 2 & 2 BPs respectively), one break to 15 = deuce faced: 6 (3 games), BP faced: 6 (4 games), broken: 1

Nadal faced more deuces in more games and twice as many BPs in twice as many games, which points out to Djokovic being the better player throughout the set, yet it was Nadal who broke twice as much - that's his typical clutch factor at work. Reminiscent of the 1st set of Wim 08 final, when Nadal faced 7 deuces and 3 BP in 2 tough games and held through, while Federer faced 0 deuces and 1 BP (30-40) in 1 game and got broken right away.

SET 3: not a single deuce faced by either player. Djok held from a tough spot at *5-5 0-30, but so did Nadal in the next game at *5-6 15-30. Nadal won two more return points before the TB, so he was the slightly better player, but Djokovic was clutcher in the breaker, true.

SET 4: Djokovic faces BP in 2 games (break 15, break to 30) and does't face deuce in his holds. Nadal faces deuce/BP in 3 games (7 deuce, 6 BP total), including triple BP when serving for the set, yet only loses serve once - again wins by being clutcher rather than plain better.

SET 5: an even set with both facing 1 deuce/BP game until 7-7 (3-4 and 4-4 respectively). Nadal had a big onslaught in that 7-7 game with 3 BP and 5 deuces, but after Djokovic survived that, he immediately pressured back and Nadal was only able to save MP once, but not again.



Nadal wasn't at his best either, goes without saying.

No need to extrapolate so much on a such a small single phrase... What I was watching and keeping notice of was the way both were playing not the exact number points both won.. Point is I just don't agree either guy were choking or stuffing up points due to mental farts, they both were out there playing high quality stuff. IMO though, Set 2 and 3 were the best of the match. Set 4 wasn't that great and Set 5 was pretty good, but Nadal was beginning to lose steam. The only way Djokovic could have finished the match sooner was if he won Set 4* which neither guy was playing well, but in the same way Nadal could have won Set 3 in that both guys were playing well.

 

[True Fanerer]

All the big servers were in Fed's half. I wouldn't brag too much about BP opportunities at this Wimbledon with him being in Nadal's half.

 

[abmk]

We can go a little deeper.

I gathered each opponent's main service related stats on grass for that particular season (not just Wimbledon) from the ATP website: 1st serve %, 1st serve points won %, 2nd serve points won %, service games won%, service points won%.

I then calculated the number of games they played on grass that year. The numbers are not whole because tiebreakers were converted to games based on the assumption that the average service game has 6 points (ATP historical average).

This allowed me to calculate a weighted average of these stats to approximate his opponents' serving form as a group. Here are the numbers:

Average opponents' service points won:

• 2011: 68.6%
• 2014: 70.7%
• 2015: 70.4%
• 2018: 68.5%

Average opponents' service games won:

• 2011: 87.7%
• 2014: 90.6%
• 2015: 89.3%
• 2018: 86.2%

This seems to lend credence to the idea that he's faced weaker servers this year than in years past.
These numbers suggest the strength of servers Djoko faced in his Wimbledon title runs are: 2014 > 2015 > 2011 > 2018

yep. good work.
matches my subjective impression.