Does Alcarez have a decent chance to surpass Nadal everywhere but clay

[grandefrankie]

It is probably a tough task (not impossible but probably very difficult) Alcarez to ever pass Nadal on a best players all time list just due to Nadal's inhuman clay career, which factors into his overall career and greatness. And of course even if he did he won't in a million years ever come anywhere near Nadal on the surface clay specifically. But is it very forseeable for Alcarez to surpass Nadal on all non clay surfaces? I could easily see him surpassing him on grass, in fact it seems super likely already. Surpassing him indoors wouldn't be hard at all or require much, and seems nearly certain as well. The only real question is hard courts. Nadal does have 6 hard court majors despite playing the 2 best hard court players in history- Djokovic and Federer. This might be more of a challenge, but decently possible as well.

 

[roysid]

Yes, the same thought came to my mind and created a thread also.
Because eventually due to spanish connection, alcaraz will be compared with nadal more

 

[xFedal]

Yes, Carlos is better on hard and grass, hes better at Wimbledon and US Open, the tricky part might be Australia, every great had a weak slam, if Carlos doesn't win Australian open 2025 then it will be his weak slam but he still might win 3 there.

 

[Tano]

Yes, on grass it is very likely and on outdoor hard courts, he has a very good chance.
He, in reality, is at the beginning of his career and has a long road ahead of him to continue breaking legendary marks like those of his compatriot.

 

[taster]

Yes, a decent chance. I agree about the Australian Open being hard for him - and Sinner has established himself there.

 

[grandefrankie]

Yes, Carlos is better on hard and grass, hes better at Wimbledon and US Open, the tricky part might be Australia, every great had a weak slam, if Carlos doesn't win Australian open 2025 then it will be his weak slam but he still might win 3 there.

I don't think he is better on hard courts yet for sure, but has a chance to be in the future. Nadal did win 6 hard court majors against super hard competition with the 2 hard court GOATs. He had some easy draws at the US Open, but still overall very impressive against really hard competition on the whole. Alcarez thus far has only 1 in the worst field in history. However he has tons of improvement left on hard courts, so has a chance of surpassing Nadal even there.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Yes, Carlos is better on hard and grass, hes better at Wimbledon and US Open, the tricky part might be Australia, every great had a weak slam, if Carlos doesn't win Australian open 2025 then it will be his weak slam but he still might win 3 there.

He isn't better on grass and he better step up his hc slams

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

It seems very likely!

 

[xFedal]

He isn't better on grass and he better step up his hc slams

Hes clearly better than Nadal on grass, show me Nadal dismantling the GOAT at Wimbledon? Show me one time Nadal demolished Fed or Novak at Wimbledon in a full completed match?

 

[Kralingen]

Achievements wise I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t.

 

[NatF]

In achievements he probably will, though I don't think 6+ HC slams is a given for him. I do think he'll win more Wimbledons.

 

[xFedal]

I don't think he is better on hard courts yet for sure, but has a chance to be in the future. Nadal did win 6 hard court majors against super hard competition with the 2 hard court GOATs. He had some easy draws at the US Open, but still overall very impressive against really hard competition on the whole. Alcarez thus far has only 1 in the worst field in history. However he has tons of improvement left on hard courts, so has a chance of surpassing Nadal even there.

Age wise Carlos is ahead everywhere except clay, Nadal won his first AO at age 22.6 months and USO age 24.3 months.

 

[Steve0904]

He probably will, unless someone really steps up to challenge him. I don't know that he'll ever have level wise performances like AO 09 or USO 10, but he probably won't need them.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Hes clearly better than Nadal on grass, show me Nadal dismantling the GOAT at Wimbledon? Show me one time Nadal demolished Fed or Novak at Wimbledon in a full completed match?

You are kidding right?

Fed the greatest grass player ever lost in his prime to rafa.

The shepherd beat a very old djoker who is no where near his prime.

 

[BGod]

Grass
3 Finals losses to Fed/Novak, SF loss to Novak, injured (Kyrgios)

USO
4 victories with 1 loss to Novak

AO
A whopping 4 losses to Wawrinka, Fed, Novak with 2 epic wins

Hard to see Carlos eclipsing any of those to be honest. Not mentioning the 08 Wimbledon being one of the greatest wins in Slam history so......

 

[Lleytonstation]

Achievements wise I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t.

In achievements he probably will, though I don't think 6+ HC slams is a given for him. I do think he'll win more Wimbledons.

He will never play any big 3 near their prime let alone during it. No peak grass fed, no peak hc djoker, no peak clay rafa.

That should matter.

Period.

 

[xFedal]

You are kidding right?

Fed the greatest grass player ever lost in his prime to rafa.

The shepherd beat a very old djoker who is no where near his prime.

Show me when Nadal destroyed A GOAT in a Wimbledon final, 2008 was not demolition job but a super close match against monofed.

 

[BGod]

Yes, Carlos is better on hard and grass, hes better at Wimbledon and US Open, the tricky part might be Australia, every great had a weak slam, if Carlos doesn't win Australian open 2025 then it will be his weak slam but he still might win 3 there.

Yes, on grass it is very likely and on outdoor hard courts, he has a very good chance.
He, in reality, is at the beginning of his career and has a long road ahead of him to continue breaking legendary marks like those of his compatriot.

Absent statistical, historic or logistical evidence.

 

[NatF]

He will never play any big 3 near their prime let alone during it. No peak grass fed, no peak hc djoker, no peak clay rafa.

That should matter.

Period.

That's why I said achieve more. Nothing about playing level.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Show me when Nadal destroyed A GOAT in a Wimbledon final, 2008 was not demolition job but a super close match against monofed.

Show me where he played a broken down goat that was 16 years older.

Have some respect for the best 3 ever

 

[-NN-]

Fred sure did enjoy losing to Rafa in his prime in general. Rafa lived a charmed existence for a long time in that match-up.

 

[xFedal]

Show me where he played a broken down goat that was 16 years older.

Have some respect for the best 3 ever

He beat a well playing Djokovic last year.

 

[Lleytonstation]

That's why I said achieve more. Nothing about playing level.

Not many will see the difference. Hence why I am rooting against him. He is benefitting from not dealing with atg in their prime

 

[Tano]

Fred sure did enjoy losing to Rafa in his prime in general. Rafa lived a charmed existence for a long time in that match-up.

Fred Astaire?

 

[Lleytonstation]

He beat a well playing Djokovic last year.

Sure, but far from a prime djoker.

 

[-NN-]

Fred Astaire?

That's the one.

 

[Mustard]

It would have been nice for Nadal not to have a peak Federer in the field, but there you are. It is what it is.

 

[BigThreeForever]

The Neanderthal will win it all.

 

[pirhaksar]

Imho He’s easily going to surpass Rafa. I think he wins atleast 5/6 FOs also, he is likely not going to claim king of clay title but king of HC and King of Grass are both up for grabs. Only thing is injury that can stop him right now and/or Sinner quickly leveling up.

 

[Lleytonstation]

He beat a well playing Djokovic last year.

Remember fed beat sampras at wc. But it wasn't considered the way ttw is talking about the shepherds win.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Imho He’s easily going to surpass Rafa. I think he wins atleast 5/6 FOs also, he is likely not going to claim king of clay title but king of HC and King of Grass are both up for grabs. Only thing is injury that can stop him right now and/or Sinner quickly leveling up.

So you are saying he is winning 30 slams?

Haha here we go

 

[The Blond Blur]

He probably will given how terribad the field is. His biggest competition is a ginger who can’t stay healthy and wets the bed more often than not in the biggest moments, and an ever declining Joker.

 

[Kralingen]

That's why I said achieve more. Nothing about playing level.

Level wise I haven’t seen anything, yet, that should make Nadal worry under a peak discussion. However, Carlos’s serve is improving and his shot selection is as well. But AO 09/WB08/USO10 are very, very high thresholds to meet.

 

[The Blond Blur]

He beat a well playing Djokovic last year.

Lol

 

[Steve0904]

Not many will see the difference. Hence why I am rooting against him. He is benefitting from not dealing with atg in their prime

Why root against him? Seems like a sad excuse IMHO. If it wasn't Alcaraz it would have to be someone else and there's no other ATG's to be found anywhere on any surface today.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Why root against him? Seems like a sad excuse IMHO. If it wasn't Alcaraz it would have to be someone else and there's no other ATG's to be found anywhere on any surface today.

Well let me rephrase. I hope someone like Sinner or someone else starts competing with him rather than letting the guy take everything.

 

[Steve0904]

Well let me rephrase. I hope someone like Sinner or someone else starts competing with him rather than letting the guy take everything.

Fair enough. I would like that too. It likely wouldn't ever match Fedal, but a rivalry is definitely needed on multiple surfaces.

 

[Night Slasher]

Rafa won his titles over Rodja and Nole and that's a big plus in my book. I also believe that the competition on hard court is quite challenging even for Carlos because more people know how to play on the surface (unlike on grass) and he's already lost many matches in slams so it will be tougher.

 

[pirhaksar]

So you are saying he is winning 30 slams?

Haha here we go

My guess is as good or as bonkers as any hypothetical anyone makes here all day, basically 95% of comments here. Assuming you are not being sarcastic, I don’t know if it will be 30…that seems far fetched right now. He has got 4 already at 21 and won FO and Winby twice. Novak is on the way out and Rafa will likely play one last FO. Except Sinner on HC, no one on the tour even knows to play him. This gives him green light to do what Roger did in the 03-07 period. That’s atleast 20 slams, even if he wins 60% he is getting to 15+ range. Unless Sinner shows up like Rafa did to challenge him, 20 slam career is very possible. In other words to answer the question posed by OP, besting Rafa everywhere but the FO is entirely possible. Of course he could have a career threatening injury next time he steps on court too. I guess we have to wait and find out.

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

Sure but it means nothing since Nadal was going up against two GOAT candidates the entire time. Carlos isn’t. Take Fed and Nole out of the equation and Nadal has multiple calendar slams a golden calendar slam

 

[MeatTornado]

Very curious to see Carlos on hard courts going forward. He only has the 1 win, from almost 2 years ago now. And that was his weakest in terms of competition.

In his 3 slam winning seasons he's lost to Berrettini, Medvedev and Zverev at the HC majors. The field is obviously deepest on hard courts, and it's where Sinner has played him the toughest too. He could still easily win 6+ between the 2 events, but I don't think it's a total lock either.

 

[Lleytonstation]

My guess is as good or as bonkers as any hypothetical anyone makes here all day, basically 95% of comments here. Assuming you are not being sarcastic, I don’t know if it will be 30…that seems far fetched right now. He has got 4 already at 21 and won FO and Winby twice. Novak is on the way out and Rafa will likely play one last FO. Except Sinner on HC, no one on the tour even knows to play him. This gives him green light to do what Roger did in the 03-07 period. That’s atleast 20 slams, even if he wins 60% he is getting to 15+ range. Unless Sinner shows up like Rafa did to challenge him, 20 slam career is very possible. In other words to answer the question posed by OP, besting Rafa everywhere but the FO is entirely possible. Of course he could have a career threatening injury next time he steps on court too. I guess we have to wait and find out.

Well if he wins 5-6 on clay and becomes the best grass and hards playe rof all time that puts him at 30+.

But yeah no one knows anything but it is fun to speculate, I just like to keep it realistic until he starts getting into the double digit slams.

 

[Tano]

Imho He’s easily going to surpass Rafa. I think he wins atleast 5/6 FOs also, he is likely not going to claim king of clay title but king of HC and King of Grass are both up for grabs. Only thing is injury that can stop him right now and/or Sinner quickly leveling up.

He would have to surpass Djokovic's 14 hard-court Majors titles.
It will be very, very difficult to achieve.

 

[Tano]

Very curious to see Carlos on hard courts going forward. He only has the 1 win, from almost 2 years ago now. And that was his weakest in terms of competition.

In his 3 slam winning seasons he's lost to Berrettini, Medvedev and Zverev at the HC majors. The field is obviously deepest on hard courts, and it's where Sinner has played him the toughest too. He could still easily win 6+ between the 2 events, but I don't think it's a total lock either.

How good could the Fonseca boy that many are talking about here be?

 

[Incognito]

He will never play any big 3 near their prime let alone during it. No peak grass fed, no peak hc djoker, no peak clay rafa.

That should matter.

Period.

Neither did Sampras. Or Laver.

I think Carlos Will surpass Rafa’s numbers outside of clay.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Neither did Sampras. Or Laver.

I think Carlos Will surpass Rafa’s numbers outside of clay.

We also are not saying Sampras is the best ever. Laver, well I never saw him play so I will leave that one.

 

[pirhaksar]

He would have to surpass Djokovic's 14 hard-court Majors titles.
It will be very, very difficult to achieve.

That’s fair I didn’t do the 10+4 count I guess. I was thinking something like 5-5-8-5…considering no one knows how to play on grass and he already has like 2, the above sequence is quite possible ..give/take 1 in each major..quite possible if he goes on a 3/4 year tear.

 

[grandefrankie]

You are kidding right?

Fed the greatest grass player ever lost in his prime to rafa.

The shepherd beat a very old djoker who is no where near his prime.

Considering Nadal was outrageously inconsistent on grass even in his prime/peak years, with some great performances but also a large slew of embarassing/terrible losses, and Alcarez at 21 has already matched his number of career Wimbledon titles (even if it against this godawful field) and defended a Wimbledon title, something Nadal never did, I am actually comfortable already saying he is better on grass. Even with the points you said. Anyway even if it isn't clear yet, it is a no brain certainty in the near future anyway so might as well already put that one off in future tense already.

 

[grandefrankie]

Very curious to see Carlos on hard courts going forward. He only has the 1 win, from almost 2 years ago now. And that was his weakest in terms of competition.

In his 3 slam winning seasons he's lost to Berrettini, Medvedev and Zverev at the HC majors. The field is obviously deepest on hard courts, and it's where Sinner has played him the toughest too. He could still easily win 6+ between the 2 events, but I don't think it's a total lock either.

Concur. That is what I said in my opening. Surpassing Nadal on grass and indoors is a no brainer to happen, but doing it on hard courts is harder to predict. Particularly if you factor in Nadal achieved those 6 hard court slams against the 2 best hard court players in history, and an overall excellent hard court field, and Alcarez is playing, atleast for now, the worst field in history.

 

[ND-13]

Very curious to see Carlos on hard courts going forward. He only has the 1 win, from almost 2 years ago now. And that was his weakest in terms of competition.

In his 3 slam winning seasons he's lost to Berrettini, Medvedev and Zverev at the HC majors. The field is obviously deepest on hard courts, and it's where Sinner has played him the toughest too. He could still easily win 6+ between the 2 events, but I don't think it's a total lock either.

It is just not reasonable to include the Berretini loss.