tacou
G.O.A.T.
Quick summary: 25% of the players to reach the AO semifinals since 2005 were not seeded to get there, making for a "surprising" SF field more often than not
Partly because AO is on my mind constantly and partly because of a recent NBA "scandal," I got to thinking about how many memorable dark horse runs there have been at the AO recently, and if there might be more of these breakthrough performances if players were properly rested going into more tournaments.
The AO is generally accepted as the most surprising major of the year, as players have worked on their games, regained endurance, healed injuries and recharged mentally.
I started to wonder, if the season were scheduled "perfectly" (not going to get into what that would be), would we see more challenges to the top players, since the entire field would be in tip top shape?
I looked at the past eight Australian Open quarter final fields and counted how many players beat their seeding to get there, so any player ranked #9 or lower. I also noted which of the top 4 seeds reached the semis, since in today's game we pretty much pencil the Big Four into the semis.
*Players without a number were unseeded; unspecified result = loss in the QF
Findings:
2005--#20 Hrbaty, #26 Davydenko, #9 Nalbandian (top 4 seeds made semis)
2006--#21 Kiefer (SF), #25 Grosjean, Baghdatis (F) (#1 and #4 reached semis)
2007--Mardy Fish, #12 Haas (SF), #10 Gonzalez (F) (top seed reaches semis)
2008--#12 Blake, Tsonga (F), #24 Nieminen (top 3 seeds reach semis)
2009--#14 Verdaco (SF) (top 2 seeds reach finals)
2010--#10 Tsonga (SF), #14 Cilic (SF) (top seed reaches semis)
2011--Dolgopolov, #19 Wawrinka (#3 and #2 reach semis)
2012--#24 Nishikori, #11 del Potro (top 4 seeds reach semis)
#9 Seed Or Worse At AO Since '05
19 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached QF stage or better. (3 players four times, 2 players three times, 1 player once)
8 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached SF stage or better.
3 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached the Final (two were unseeded).
Top 4 Seeds At AO Since '05
Top 4 seeds reached the semis twice.
Top 3 seeds reached the semis once.
Top 2 seeds reached the semis once.
Two of Top 4 seeds reached the semis twice.
Only the top seed reached the semis twice.
I will have to look at the other majors before fully understanding these numbers, but the stats look encouraging: only 3 of 8 Semi Final fields had more than 2 top seeds.
This makes me think that, as an extreme example, if only the 4 majors were played every year and no other events, the Top 4 would have a much tougher time cruising to the semis.
Partly because AO is on my mind constantly and partly because of a recent NBA "scandal," I got to thinking about how many memorable dark horse runs there have been at the AO recently, and if there might be more of these breakthrough performances if players were properly rested going into more tournaments.
The AO is generally accepted as the most surprising major of the year, as players have worked on their games, regained endurance, healed injuries and recharged mentally.
I started to wonder, if the season were scheduled "perfectly" (not going to get into what that would be), would we see more challenges to the top players, since the entire field would be in tip top shape?
I looked at the past eight Australian Open quarter final fields and counted how many players beat their seeding to get there, so any player ranked #9 or lower. I also noted which of the top 4 seeds reached the semis, since in today's game we pretty much pencil the Big Four into the semis.
*Players without a number were unseeded; unspecified result = loss in the QF
Findings:
2005--#20 Hrbaty, #26 Davydenko, #9 Nalbandian (top 4 seeds made semis)
2006--#21 Kiefer (SF), #25 Grosjean, Baghdatis (F) (#1 and #4 reached semis)
2007--Mardy Fish, #12 Haas (SF), #10 Gonzalez (F) (top seed reaches semis)
2008--#12 Blake, Tsonga (F), #24 Nieminen (top 3 seeds reach semis)
2009--#14 Verdaco (SF) (top 2 seeds reach finals)
2010--#10 Tsonga (SF), #14 Cilic (SF) (top seed reaches semis)
2011--Dolgopolov, #19 Wawrinka (#3 and #2 reach semis)
2012--#24 Nishikori, #11 del Potro (top 4 seeds reach semis)
#9 Seed Or Worse At AO Since '05
19 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached QF stage or better. (3 players four times, 2 players three times, 1 player once)
8 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached SF stage or better.
3 players ranked outside the top 8 have reached the Final (two were unseeded).
Top 4 Seeds At AO Since '05
Top 4 seeds reached the semis twice.
Top 3 seeds reached the semis once.
Top 2 seeds reached the semis once.
Two of Top 4 seeds reached the semis twice.
Only the top seed reached the semis twice.
I will have to look at the other majors before fully understanding these numbers, but the stats look encouraging: only 3 of 8 Semi Final fields had more than 2 top seeds.
This makes me think that, as an extreme example, if only the 4 majors were played every year and no other events, the Top 4 would have a much tougher time cruising to the semis.
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