Does Djokovic Dominate Masters 1000s Once Again and Take 2018 US Open?

Meles

Bionic Poster
#1
I have my doubts as the Cecchinato debacle was just a short month ago with Vajda having him at 80% on clay. But Djokovic has his new first serve which won him Wimbledon and will make life easier even if he's not 100% in the stamina department.
 
#7
Djoko being back is worst for Federer than it is for Nadal because Nadal will continue to win RG. Djoko owns the AO and he has what it takes to stop Fed at Wimbledon. USO is always a toss up as it has the most neutral court conditions. Fed isn't going to have an easy time at AO and Wimby anymore to pad his slam count.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#8
Please Yes! Seriously, I just want him to play better and be a contender consistently again.
This was my low effort thread to get US Open discussion going so I'll take the bump.:D The only roadblock I see outside the known quantities really are Zverev and Kyrgios. I think he could take some losses with those two late in events if they get hot, but otherwise I think he's immune to the rest of the NextGen moving up the rankings. He can do it!
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#10
Djoko being back is worst for Federer than it is for Nadal because Nadal will continue to win RG. Djoko owns the AO and he has what it takes to stop Fed at Wimbledon. USO is always a toss up as it has the most neutral court conditions. Fed isn't going to have an easy time at AO and Wimby anymore to pad his slam count.
AO is much faster now so Fed may still get the job done. Its different from when Nole dominated proceedings, ditto WTF and Paris.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#12
He might win the USO (and he might not), but I'd be surprised if he started to truly dominate again.
That improved first serve is extremely worrying. It may be enough for Djoko to get dangerous faster than I'd dare to imagine even when predicting him to make final of Wimby. He won't need as much stamina if he keeps being able to loaf on serve.
 
#13
That improved first serve is extremely worrying. It may be enough for Djoko to get dangerous faster than I'd dare to imagine even when predicting him to make final of Wimby. He won't need as much stamina if he keeps being able to loaf on serve.
Any good data on how much the serve has improved?
 
#14
That improved first serve is extremely worrying. It may be enough for Djoko to get dangerous faster than I'd dare to imagine even when predicting him to make final of Wimby. He won't need as much stamina if he keeps being able to loaf on serve.
He did add to his racquet's length to help his serve or be easier on his shoulder with the extra leverage. That and a change in technique seems to have elevated his serving prowess. His reincarnated self is going to be scary if he starts acing people like crazy and we already know he's the best returner in the game.
 
#15
He just lost in Queens, was he playing so poorly then? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Contender in every tournament, yes. Dominating? Let's wait and see.
 

Elektra

Professional
#16
Djoko being back is worst for Federer than it is for Nadal because Nadal will continue to win RG. Djoko owns the AO and he has what it takes to stop Fed at Wimbledon. USO is always a toss up as it has the most neutral court conditions. Fed isn't going to have an easy time at AO and Wimby anymore to pad his slam count.
Exactly, I think it is worse for Federer cause Djokovic has owned him on his best surfaces.
 
#17
I think WTF, Cincy and Shangai are pretty fast conditions and Fed was able to hold his own in those M1000's even when Djoker was dominating. So we will know in a month in Cincy and I will be there live to take note of the proceedings :)
The real problem I see is that Nadal may end up without even one WTF win..When a subjective dicussion like GOAT comes up...us FED fans will add this one to our quiver of arrows..;)
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
#19
I think WTF, Cincy and Shangai are pretty fast conditions and Fed was able to hold his own in those M1000's even when Djoker was dominating. So we will know in a month in Cincy and I will be there live to take note of the proceedings :)
The real problem I see is that Nadal may end up without even one WTF win..When a subjective dicussion like GOAT comes up...us FED fans will add this one to our quiver of arrows..;)
In which case his die-hard fans will simply dismiss it as a meaningless exho. ;)
 
#20
I don't know about dominating masters 1000s yet. He has never won Cincy and he was honeymoon hungover after 2014.

His reaction after championship point today shows how much relieved he was to finally get a slam again.

I think he might slack off again, before USOpen. Also, the young guys, especially Zverev seemed very disappointed to not be able to win due to food poisoning, he seems ready to win on hard courts.
 

clout

Hall of Fame
#21
He should only be in for the majors at this point. He's probably the second greatest masters player ever so he clearly has nothing to prove there anymore. Also, even in Fedal's comeback, their chances of winning Masters and even playing in them are going to begin dropping as the bo3 format is where the younger players would have a better shot at beating the big 3. The bo5 in majors are where the experienced players will still prevail.
 
#22
The masters will be a breath of fresh air for Djokovic. He has had some crunch moments now the last 2 months but now alot of weight has lifted from his shoulders after this victory.

He can go in without too much pressure of having this need to show not only to himself but others aswell that he is someone to count on. He has made a statement and can now work on his HC game for USO peacefully and without panic, but also for what's to come after that.
 
Last edited:
#24
I think he has a shot in Toronto, though Zverev is tough in best of three. Djokovic has never won Cincy, and I don’t think he loves it there. I wouldn’t rule him out, but he isn’t back to 100%, and as Nadal just found out, it is really hard to win an elite tournament in conditions you don’t love even if you are close to 100%.
 
#25
I think he has a shot in Toronto, though Zverev is tough in best of three. Djokovic has never won Cincy, and I don’t think he loves it there. I wouldn’t rule him out, but he isn’t back to 100%, and as Nadal just found out, it is really hard to win an elite tournament in conditions you don’t love even if you are close to 100%.
Zverev is very tough in best of three.
 
#27
With a child, wife and being a family man I do not believe Nole is going to even try to dominate Masters 1000's anymore. Sure, he will certainly win a couple of those titles, but his main focus will be the five biggest tournaments in the world. The four slams and the ATP World Championships. That's where Nole will try to be in peak form.
 
#29
@Meles I am starting to seriously doubt you. You know damn well that Thiem and Zverev will win all slams until at least 2030.

You're slipping!
No, @Meles has now jinxed djkr so that the odds of CYGS contender Zverev and ATP 250 Heavyweight Champion of the World Dominator Thiem winning the USO goes up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#30
Masters should not be his priority at all but Slams. And these days you get #1 ranking with 8k points anyway. So better focus on Slams. A lot of time has already wasted.
 
#31
Djoko being back is worst for Federer than it is for Nadal because Nadal will continue to win RG. Djoko owns the AO and he has what it takes to stop Fed at Wimbledon. USO is always a toss up as it has the most neutral court conditions. Fed isn't going to have an easy time at AO and Wimby anymore to pad his slam count.
It’s bad news for both. However, you are right Rafa has RG that he owns. It would take a 2011 or 2015 level Djoko to have a chance against Rafa there.

Whereas current Djoko will be a big problem for fed at the other 3 slams!
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#32
Any good data on how much the serve has improved?
Grass data is a short period:
This is from 36 sets on grass so should be most of Wimby if not all:
1st Serve % 69.9%
1st Serve Won % 82.4%
2nd Serve Won % 59.1%
1st Srv. Return Won % 30.0%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 51.9%

2012-2015 (Nole's serve not great in 2011):
1st Serve % 67.4%
1st Serve Won % 77.3%
2nd Serve Won % 58.8%
1st Srv. Return Won % 31.8%
2nd Srv. Return Won % 52.7%

I use points stats because game stats tend to even out over time, but in the short run luck/clutch on break points can throw the games data (match scores are even worse for this, so raw points is the best, most granular measure.) So really given the stage of Nole's comeback and his age the drop in return is pretty small. I'm pleased to see his 2nd serve points won was respectable in 2018 (2015 was 63.7%).

Of course the reason I'm very guarded about writing off Nole on hard courts is because despite still remaining conditioning issues compared to this peak, he clearly has a greatly improved serve. The 2nd serve numbers should be down at his age like the return game and they're up compared to 2012-2015 period. So despite the clear difference with the current 2nd serve versus the Becker 2nd of 2015-2016 fame, he's still pretty wiley with it and much better than 2012-2014. I'd expect his 2nd serve performance to slowly nudge up as he gets more confident from playing more.

The first serve is what you ask about and going from 77.2 to 82.3% is a huge leap. I'd say a portion of this surely must be just the shortness of the data sets for grass, but just a 2-3% increase is huge. If he's 2% better than 2015/2016 on hard courts he could then overall be a better player (as he hinted at post Wimbledon review). The better first serve will help shorten his matches and make it easier to win events. Its a very similar stats boost to what Fed and Rafa have done to extend their careers, but Nole's is in the most important first serve points won.:eek:
 
#34
Djokovic's overall performance at USO has been a disappointment for his talents. He actually should be 0-5 against Federer in USO lifetime SF meetings. And he's 2-5 in USO finals. He'll make a deep run at USO this year but I wouldn't peg him as the very favourite.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#35
@Meles did you not write after Miami that Djoker is finished and he will have a tough time against Zverev, Kyrgios and the likes even if he improves ?
I've pounded Djokovic for a long time, but now he's putting in the time, finally got his elbow issue squared away, and has a reasonable schedule for the year (just needs to play two masters warmups for US Open and he's good after going so deep at Wimbledon.) I did not like his chances on clay because he's still not in great shape. I saw Wimbledon as his chance to break through this year, but now with the impressively improved first serve he cannot be discounted for US Open hard court series.

The Kyrgios/Zverev statement I stand by because on paper both should have improved since 2017 (Zverev has and Kyrgios is a mixed bag.) I believe they are the two biggest threats to him within the NextGen. Zverev may be the biggest threat on tour to Djokovic in the upcoming US Open series.;)
 
#36
Hard to see him dominate the sport again. He will be a contender at the best, his form at Wimbledon is vastly overrated. He lucked out from not having to face Zverev or Kyrgios
 
#38
If the US Open is "Nadal slow" again, Djokovic will be right there in the mix, as will a healthy Federer. Who can hang with these guys on slow hard court? Maybe #4, Murray, should his recovery not be a red herring. I have hope for Zverev, Thiem, and a few of the young guys, but not much.
 
Top