Does Djokovic have a good shot at winning Wimbledon 25 to make it 25

[Rovesciarete]

The last time Novak crushed Jannik was on the ice rink of Turin 23, after dispatching Carlos in a similar fashion. The latter was also beaten on the notably quick Olympic clay and on Nole's best hunting ground, the AO. Sinner was defeated in straights at Wimbledon in 23.

Last year his injury ended a potential RG title and left him with hardly any time to get fit and ready for Wimbledon. He profited from an easy draw, but was in the final clearly at least two fitness levels below young Charly. With more time to recover he completed tennis in a golden olympic summer.

In this RG he didn't drop a set before meeting his younger evolution and can properly prepare a run to get 25 in 25. This stark difference in fitness makes it highly likely that he will only have Sinneraz to truly fear on grass; nowhere is the top 10 competition weaker, and his age is a lesser factor. He has proven in Miami to be able to serve still superbly, and his slice out wide works best on the green. There he can also shorten the points more easily with crafty variety.

 

[dking68]

I’d say 25% the most. I can see him defeating Alcaraz, however I don’t see him defeating Jannik a third time there.

 

[dr325i]

I would not say a "GOOD" chance, but yes, a chance, and possibly the last chance.
1) He feels comfortable at Wimbledon and has 7 of them in his pocket
2) He has no chance vs Sinner on HC today, but a better chance on "slippery surfaces" vs. him. At least two sets could have gone the other way at the FO SF.
3) Although Alcaraz is a favorite, Novak has beaten him 4 out of the last 5 meetings...

 

[SneederFeeder]

He'd need Alcaraz to choke early. That's the key. No (realistic) scenario where Djokovic wins going through both Sinner and Carlos. Nor can you have a realistic chance at Sinner going out early short of health issues maybe, his floor is just too insane.

And obviously he can't hope in the draw, as these 2 are #1 and 2.

Is it possible? Yeah, Alcaraz can be way too volatile sometimes, but he usually pulls himself back together enough to avoid embarrassing losses. And also of course, he'd still need to get through Sinner which is not a given at all.

He has a like 10% chance imo

 

[fafa]

He needs to be stronger mentally against Sinner to have a chance. (if they even meet)

 

[AmericanTwist]

Let's see what kind of door-mat draw he gets...agree with dking with 25% chance at most. In the era of big 3 or 4, what probabilities do people assign the big3 or 4 for comparison?

 

[Rovesciarete]

Loved his backhand for most of RG and the stats support it. As usually less spin and speed, but more precision and redirection to do the damage. Most will depend on his serve though....

Shows why Draper seems rather dangerous, and as a lefty he is far less vulnerable than Zverev and Rublev to the righty cc bh slice. Federer had obviously no issue there and Sampras attacked it. Shelton has theoretically the same advantage but isn't used so much to the grass.

From Reddit user honesnbafan, last 52 weeks for the current crop.

 

[Hitman]

He's clearly not the favorite, but he right up there as a contender.

 

[kishnabe]

#3 favorite. Will be dusted in the SF by the new #2.

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

I would have said 50/50 if Sinner won RG. Now I'm leaning towards 80-85 percent he wins Wimbledon

 

[-NN-]

I'm with you. I've got him at 30%. To me, that's a very solid shot at it.

 

[RS]

Voted 15-25%

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

I dont put much stock into his match with Carlos last year. Djokovic just got off knee surgery and was clearly limited movement wise.. I doubt that happens this year.

 

[MichaelNadal]

I dont put much stock into his match with Carlos last year. Djokovic just got off knee surgery and was clearly limited movement wise.. I doubt that happens this year.

I agree, this year he will get STRETCHED with no excuses

 

[dking68]

#3 favorite. Will be dusted in the SF by the new #2.

He’s gonna be dusted by the top 2 players

 

[jl809]

He can’t beat Alcaraz if the latter plays his best on grass anymore. Period. Raz is better than in 2023 and Djokovic is worse. So he will need something weird to happen like AO 25. He’ll need to get in his head again and rattle him… imo it’s unlikely it happens twice in a row but you never know.

And tbh I don’t give him much of a chance against Sinner either as I just don’t think he has the athleticism to defend off clay anymore against Sinner’s hammer blows. Reason I’m more positive around Djoker there is that I don’t see Sinner as a lock for the SF, I think something weird could happen before then especially if he’s handling the weight of Le Petit Choke badly

Something like 20% seems about right

 

[dking68]

@DSH what are the chances?

 

[Big_Dangerous]

I’d say 25% the most. I can see him defeating Alcaraz, however I don’t see him defeating Jannik a third time there.

Seems a bit high and I'm not sure where you've been the last few years, but he lost to Alcaraz at Wimbledon in 2023 and last year... I don't see him being able to beat Carlos on grass at this stage. His best chance was in 2023, but now he's 2 more years older and Carlos is an even better player than he was in 2023. Not to mention Sinner is getting better on other surfaces like clay and grass, so I don't see how his chances are that high.

 

[bullfan]

I’d say 25% the most. I can see him defeating Alcaraz, however I don’t see him defeating Jannik a third time there.

hasn't Carlos won the last 2 W? Isn't Carlos going for the back to back Channel Slams, and only needs 1 more W to complete.

 

[ncgator]

Slight to no chance to win Wimbledon. Djokovic is done winning majors.

 

[scotus]

He is the 3rd best at the moment. He has a slim chance, but if the stars line up for him, he can get his 25th.

 

[insideoutforehanders]

He is the 3rd best at the moment. He has a slim chance, but if the stars line up for him, he can get his 25th.

At times this year he has been the 3rd or 4th best, other times more like the 30th best. So even that is optimistic.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

At times this year he has been the 3rd or 4th best, other times more like the 30th best. So even that is optimistic.

In the majors he still 3rd best.

 

[insideoutforehanders]

In the majors he still 3rd best.

True, except for the US Open which is the 3rd last major, where he was again more like the 30th best. So even that is unpredictable and will be more and more as he keeps getting older.

 

[gamelovergold]

I will give 0% chance and by that whatever the result is i will not be surprised by it.

 

[DSH]

@DSH what are the chances?

0%.

 

[Anakin]

Nole’s chances should be greater IF he plays Eastbourne next week. He is only 5 points behind Fritz (4635 to 4630) and by moving a couple of games there he can be no4 which means he wouldn’t play any of the top3 until semis correct? If he gets a wildcard to play to Eastbourne I personally think he has 50-50 chances IF he makes it to the semis. He knows is his last time at Wimbledon. Maybe I’m wrong. No disrespect. Only my opinion. Thanks

 

[Thundergod]

True, except for the US Open which is the 3rd last major, where he was again more like the 30th best. So even that is unpredictable and will be more and more as he keeps getting older.

Tbh, that was mainly because of the Olympics. It was no coincidence that both he Alcaraz sucked there last year. In any case, we'll see if it eventually catches up with him, but the grass field is so weak.

 

[Kralingen]

No.

 

[bullfan]

Before Today.... 0 %

After Today..... 0%

 

[Rovesciarete]

So far Novak is on a good path. His high level shows once again how well grass suits his elder self. Many talk rightly about his great serving, but I think his backhand might be on grass still the best of the lot. Frankly the only big competitor is Jannik's.

 

[socallefty]

It looks like he is definitely better than all the players outside of Sinner and Alcaraz on grass. But the question lately has always been if he can beat both of them to win a title. I think it is too difficult a challenge.

I also think Sinner plays the ‘Djokovic style’ better these days than Djokovic himself does. So can he go out of his comfort zone and try some more variety to beat Sinner?

 

[MichaelNadal]

 

[Subway Tennis]

The biggest issue imo with Djokovic this Wimbledon is that he might have actually peaked too early. That is a rare thing for a guy this good with this much experience as a big match player. His tennis has been extraordinarily high in the first week.

The biggest issue is that he will run out of head room level-wise and physically. Sinner was very good last night but still has oodles in reserve and looks to be gradually going up a gear each round in a very methodical fashion.

 

[Rovesciarete]

The biggest issue imo with Djokovic this Wimbledon is that he might have actually peaked too early. That is a rare thing for a guy this good with this much experience as a big match player. His tennis has been extraordinarily high in the first week.

The biggest issue is that he will run out of head room level-wise and physically. Sinner was very good last night but still has oodles in reserve and looks to be gradually going up a gear each round in a very methodical fashion.

Good take, we will have to see. Right now three players are clearly better on grass than the rest, giving them large margins to play with. Novak did well to rest, relying on his vast experience to be ready for Wimbledon.

For me Dimitrov looks like the most dangerous opponent for this round.

 

[Midaso240]

About 20% I think, and a decent chunk of that 20% is the slight chance that Shelton takes out Sinner or Fritz takes out Alcaraz. I don't think he can beat Sinner/Alcaraz back to back best of 5

 

[Subway Tennis]

Good take, we will have to see. Right now three players are clearly better on grass than the rest, giving them large margins to play with. Novak did well to rest, relying on his vast experience to be ready for Wimbledon.

For me Dimitrov looks like the most dangerous opponent for this round.

What are your thoughts on Cilic? It’s been so exciting watching him turn back the clock. He was out of this world agaisnt Draper, and is keeping it going. Reminds me of that epic Roland Garros run he made a few years back.

 

[ALCARAZWON]

As Agassi said, everybody loses 20% of foot speed on grass, except for Alcaraz.
Djokovic's biggest strength is retrieving ability, and he loses that vs. Alcaraz on grass!
Alcaraz in 3.
Its unlucky for Djokovic that his best surface vs. the field overall, is the surface Alcaraz is best at...

It's gonna be epic, #25 incoming

Think only Sinneraz can save you here.

Novak looks like he's on a mission this Wimbledon. Never seen a tennis player move that well at 38, dude's indestructible.

Djokovic will be lucky to win ONE set vs. Alcaraz, but he should beat Sinner.

 

[Rovesciarete]

What are your thoughts on Cilic? It’s been so exciting watching him turn back the clock. He was out of this world agaisnt Draper, and is keeping it going. Reminds me of that epic Roland Garros run he made a few years back.

Didn't watch too much of his performance so caveat what i write. So far he was able to dictate his serve games easily and attacked very well from the baseline. Just putting the ball back has been clearly not good enough.

Cobolli lacks experience but might be able to move him more, which has always been his greatest weakness imho. Nobody should know better how to reveal it than Novak.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Didn't watch too much of his performance so caveat what i write. So far he was able to dictate his serve games easily and attacked very well from the baseline. Just putting the ball back has been clearly not good enough.

Cobolli lacks experience but might be able to move him more, which has always been his greatest weakness imho. Nobody should know better how to reveal it than Novak.

Absolutely. Dont think Cilic can beat Djokovic while Novak is playing like this. Novak’s level in the match against Captain Mimo reminded me of the gunslinging he was doing against Alcaraz at AO. He is goong for so much and not really making any errors. It’s impressive.

 

[zagor]

It's gonna be epic, #25 incoming

Think only Sinneraz can save you here.

Novak looks like he's on a mission this Wimbledon. Never seen a tennis player move that well at 38, dude's indestructible.

 

[ghostofMecir]

If and when sinner and Djokovic play, put all of your bankroll on Djokovic covering the game spread. It will happen.

 

[Pheasant]

I picked Djoker to win this tourney before it started and I am sticking with that pick. He’s been quite impressive so far. This is definitely his best surface now. He is locked in and is playing at his 2023 level now. Only a zoning Alcaraz can take out a red-hot Djoker. But so far, I have not been impressed with Carlitos. I see Djoker facing Alcaraz in the final with Djoker winning in 5 sets to avenge his paper-thin loss in 2023.

Nobody beats Djoker 3 times in a row at Wimbledon.

 

[RSJfan]

No, he doesn’t. Eggbots are in a reality distortion bubble. It will be ugly when Carrot pierces it.

 

[Badabing888]

Come back when he invariably faces Sinner in the semis. Want to see that. He gets through that and Alcaraz continues show wear and tear from his 20+ winning run then sure he has a chance especially if he faces a Fritz in the final.

 

[RF-18]

It's gonna be epic, #25 incoming

Think only Sinneraz can save you here.

Novak looks like he's on a mission this Wimbledon. Never seen a tennis player move that well at 38, dude's indestructible.

Yea he is looking incredible. Long time since I saw him be this prepared in ever facet of the game. This is the Novak I think is gonna be really really hard to take 3 sets of. Everything about his game, energy and mental focus has come into one this event. So I'd say it bodes well for whatever comes his way, but lets see. He is nearing 40 after all so one day can be different to another.

 

[Midaso240]

I picked Djoker to win this tourney before it started and I am sticking with that pick. He’s been quite impressive so far. This is definitely his best surface now. He is locked in and is playing at his 2023 level now. Only a zoning Alcaraz can take out a red-hot Djoker. But so far, I have not been impressed with Carlitos. I see Djoker facing Alcaraz in the final with Djoker winning in 5 sets to avenge his paper-thin loss in 2023.

Nobody beats Djoker 3 times in a row at Wimbledon.

Where does Sinner come in? He's probably a worse matchup for Djokovic than Alcaraz is.

 

[Pheasant]

Where does Sinner come in? He's probably a worse matchup for Djokovic than Alcaraz is.

Djoker beats Sinner in 5, then Alcaraz in 5 to shake up the tennis world.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Yea he is looking incredible. Long time since I saw him be this prepared in ever facet of the game. This is the Novak I think is gonna be really really hard to take 3 sets of. Everything about his game, energy and mental focus has come into one this event. So I'd say it bodes well for whatever comes his way, but lets see. He is nearing 40 after all so one day can be different to another.

He’s playing incredibly well but he has to face 2 likely all time greats at the peak of their career. It is a big ask but if he keeps playing as he is then he has a punchers chance.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Djoker beats Sinner in 5, then Alcaraz in 5 to shake up the tennis world.

If he beats sinner in 5 that will probably mean he’s out of a bit of gas for the final. Especially if he ends up playing alcaraz the fittest guy on your right now.

I said before the tournament if he has to beat both sinner and alcaraz in a row it too much at this point. Novak is playing really well but even so it won’t be enough to beat the 2 best players in the world back to back.