Does Nalbandian have it in him?

edmondsm

Legend
....to go deep and possibly win a slam, like the Aussie maybe:). He has been very close many times, and we've seen the last 3 weeks that he can play a very high level of tennis still. After his wins in Madrid and Paris he went out tamely at the Aussie. I wonder if he can get a better result this time around, hopefully much better.
 

PCXL-Fan

Hall of Fame
He has lots in him. Particularly in his belly.

Sorry edmondsm, couldn't resist :p

Real response: Possibly, but where Federer is declining other players are coming to the forefront and improving. So I don't think his chances are any better than last year or the year prior in 2006 when Federer was an unstoppable juggernaut at AO06. This could be an opportunity for Murray, Djokovic, and even possibly Nadal. Even Del Potro has shown that he is capable of beating Nalbanian. Perhaps in a grand slam where its 3 sets and alot more pressure is different, but I do think a number of players are rising to the occasion.
Who knows, maybe one of the 4 frenchmen (gasquet, simon, tsonga, or monfils) could knock Nalbandian out.
 

veritech

Hall of Fame
i don't think so. obviously he's got the game to be the best, but mentally, he's constantly checking in and out. he's always had poor showings during slams and with the younger players coming through, it will be harder for him to improve his results.

but who knows, maybe he'll pull a safin and come through with a slam win. i'll be pulling for him.
 

grafrules

Banned
Definite no. A whole batch of reasons:

1. Despite this myth of some of Nalbandians "ownership" of Federer, mostly by Federer haters, Federer has won 10 of his last 13 matches with Nalbandian dating back to almost 5 full years ago. 2 of those only 3 wins were during arguably the best few weeks of tennis of Nalbandian's life which included conceding only 4 games to Nadal TWICE, and on his favorite indoor surafce. He is not likely in the least to win when they play, especialy in a best 3-of-5 match in a grand slam.

2. You now have Nadal a threat on all surfaces, Djokovic a major force, Murray a major force. All very hard players for Nalbandian or anyone outside the top 4 to beat.

3. He is 0-4 in slam semis since his lone Wimbledon final over six years ago. Cancel out his French Open semifinal with Federer where he was injured and it is 0-3 in slam semis since then.

4. He couldnt win a slam (or as said above even reach a final) even in 2003-2006 when he was at his most consistent peak, and the field was not as strong as it is now. So how is he going to do it now, past his most consistent peak and with a stronger field.

5. His best surface by far is indoors. His only wins over Federer since the 2003 U.S Open are indoors. His wins over Djokovic and Nadal are also indoors. He can be a very good player on all surfaces, but the only surface he has proven the ability to beat the best and win events of any significance on is indoors, and unfortunately for him there are no slams indoors.

6. Lets look at each slam. Wimbledon, not a prayer, despite his shock Wimbledon final in 2002 this is his worst surfaces. French Open, with Nadal there no shot. So that leaves only Australian and U.S Opens. He has Federer, Murray, and Djokovic all in his way to get a hard court slam.

7. He no longer shows willingness to try and stay fit and maximize his talent (although some would question whether he ever did as much as should have). He looks past his peak as a player for the most part, not playing anywhere near his 2003-2006 level on a consistent enough basis.

So no it is not going to happen.
 

kelz

Professional
Funnily enough, his best results come from indoor courts... where the environment is cool because it is air conditioned. Someone wrote about this fact last year and most of the posters on this board paid him off for saying such 'nuisance', but it's apparent that his theory is coming to life thus far.
 

edmondsm

Legend
i don't think so. obviously he's got the game to be the best, but mentally, he's constantly checking in and out. he's always had poor showings during slams and with the younger players coming through, it will be harder for him to improve his results.

but who knows, maybe he'll pull a safin and come through with a slam win. i'll be pulling for him.
Poor showings? He made a Wimbledon final, and he's been to the semis of the rest of the three. If he came to the Aussie in form and motivated he could put a serious run together. Just like Safin, all it could take is two weeks of his top tennis. Thanks for your response, along with everyone else.
 

edmondsm

Legend
Definite no. A whole batch of reasons:

1. Despite this myth of some of Nalbandians "ownership" of Federer, mostly by Federer haters, Federer has won 10 of his last 13 matches with Nalbandian dating back to almost 5 full years ago. 2 of those only 3 wins were during arguably the best few weeks of tennis of Nalbandian's life which included conceding only 4 games to Nadal TWICE, and on his favorite indoor surafce. He is not likely in the least to win when they play, especialy in a best 3-of-5 match in a grand slam.
Remember in 2005 when Federer was absolutely invincible, only losing three times all year? Who beat him in 5 sets in the last match of the year?

Edit: I must point out that he only conceded 3 games to Nadal in Madrid last year.


3. He is 0-4 in slam semis since his lone Wimbledon final over six years ago. Cancel out his French Open semifinal with Federer where he was injured and it is 0-3 in slam semis since then.

4. He couldnt win a slam (or as said above even reach a final) even in 2003-2006 when he was at his most consistent peak, and the field was not as strong as it is now. So how is he going to do it now, past his most consistent peak and with a stronger field.

5. His best surface by far is indoors. His only wins over Federer since the 2003 U.S Open are indoors. His wins over Djokovic and Nadal are also indoors. He can be a very good player on all surfaces, but the only surface he has proven the ability to beat the best and win events of any significance on is indoors, and unfortunately for him there are no slams indoors.

6. Lets look at each slam. Wimbledon, not a prayer, despite his shock Wimbledon final in 2002 this is his worst surfaces. French Open, with Nadal there no shot. So that leaves only Australian and U.S Opens. He has Federer, Murray, and Djokovic all in his way to get a hard court slam.

7. He no longer shows willingness to try and stay fit and maximize his talent (although some would question whether he ever did as much as should have). He looks past his peak as a player for the most part, not playing anywhere near his 2003-2006 level on a consistent enough basis.

So no it is not going to happen
.

All of this is entirely correct. I'm not saying he's a lock, not by a long shot. But he is playing well, and with a little luck, maybe the draw opens up for him, he could have a chance.
 
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Gemini

Hall of Fame
Based on Nalbandian's record, no. He could get hot and lucky for two weeks and win the AO but he (like Safin) is his own worst enemy.
 

veritech

Hall of Fame
Poor showings? He made a Wimbledon final, and he's been to the semis of the rest of the three. If he came to the Aussie in form and motivated he could put a serious run together. Just like Safin, all it could take is two weeks of his top tennis. Thanks for your response, along with everyone else.
okay not poor, but not spectacular. like you said, if he came into a slam in form, he could have a good run.
 

NickC

Professional
Nalbandian is just like tons of other talented players (Brydch, Gasquet, etc...) that "don't have it mentally" to win a slam. Tons of game, but nothing in the brain won't translate to a slam.
 

edmondsm

Legend
Nalbandian is just like tons of other talented players (Brydch, Gasquet, etc...) that "don't have it mentally" to win a slam. Tons of game, but nothing in the brain won't translate to a slam.
You're analogy might hold water if Berdych or Gasquet had been to the semis of all four slams and had beaten Federer in the MC final. Until Berdych or Gasquet do anything close to that they can't carry Nalbandian's gym bag as far as I'm concerned.
 

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
He wouldn't have played the tournament if he wasn't 100%. Why would he risk injuring an ankle at at such a pivitol time in his career. His movement seemed fine to me in the match. He was just outplayed even when he was near the peak of his powers.
 

thalivest

Banned
You're analogy might hold water if Berdych or Gasquet had been to the semis of all four slams and had beaten Federer in the MC final. Until Berdych or Gasquet do anything close to that they can't carry Nalbandian's gym bag as far as I'm concerned.
Berdych and Gasquet are both overhyped. I am more dissapointed in Berdych then Gasquet though, who I feel has a game that is more lethal and potentially effective in the "modern" game and for that reason I consider him an even bigger underachiever. Gasquet would be a player who would either be great or should be considered an underachiever if he wasnt in the wood racquet era. In todays however game his underwhelming power and lack of true weaponary outside of his driving backhand, simply is not enough to reach the very top.
 

thalivest

Banned
Wasn't that when Federer had an ankle injury and was playing with taped feet?
Yeah it was. I am far from a Federer fan but he was clearly physically ailing at that Masters Cup. I was frankly shocked he even made the final, and even more shocked he nearly won it. The field at that years Masters Cup was very depleted though, IIRC Hewitt, Safin, Roddick, Nadal were all out. That is probably the only reason an injured Federer was able to come close to winning it all, even though at the time I was amazed by it. I did not even expect him to play that year and was surprised to see him take to court with that leg brace thing he was wearing, and watching him in the round robin his movement was almost painful to watch. He really is lucky he did cause further injury by playing.

I rate Nalbandian's wins over Federer last year head and shoulders above his squeeker triumph over a clearly wounded Federer at the 2005 finale, and as grafrules said that was during the best month of tennis in David's career.
 
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zagor

Bionic Poster
You're analogy might hold water if Berdych or Gasquet had been to the semis of all four slams and had beaten Federer in the MC final. Until Berdych or Gasquet do anything close to that they can't carry Nalbandian's gym bag as far as I'm concerned.
LOL,Gasquet and Berdych are not worthy of carrying Nalbo's gym bag,nice way of putting it :).I don't know about Nalbandian winning a slam in the future,he's one of my favourite players(and has been for a long time now)so I don't want to write him off but his performance at slams for the last 2 years was very dissapointing especially this year,last year he atleast put up a good fight at FO and USO in matches he lost while this year at slams he looked like he just had no motivation(people forget that he was pretty consistant in slams during 2003-2006 period).

Maybe if he wins Davis Cup this year he'll finally found some motivation to do well at slams,I still think that he's capable of beating anyone on any surface except grass(which I still feel is his worst surface despite the fact that he reached his only slam final there)if he's fit and motivated.He's still 26,that's not that old so he still has some time for a few great runs,so if he gets some good draws who knows.I think it would be a waste if he finished his career without a slam so I hope he gets one before he's done.

Berdych and Gasquet are both overhyped. I am more dissapointed in Berdych then Gasquet though, who I feel has a game that is more lethal and potentially effective in the "modern" game and for that reason I consider him an even bigger underachiever. Gasquet would be a player who would either be great or should be considered an underachiever if he wasnt in the wood racquet era. In todays however game his underwhelming power and lack of true weaponary outside of his driving backhand, simply is not enough to reach the very top.
Yeah,I think a lot of people expected Berdych to break out much more than say a guy like Djokovic.I agree,to me Berdych definitely has more potential for today's game than Gasquet and I actually feel his lack of mental strength is hindering him much more than it does for Richard who I feel is not as weak mentally as people make him out to be but has some apparent weaknesses in his game.

To put it shortly,I think Berdych has more potential to succeed in today's game than Gasquet but is even more lacking in mental department than Richard.
 
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Dreamer

Professional
I don't like to count anyone out especially someone as talented as Nalbandian, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I think it's more likely to have one of the younger upcomers to win it before Nalbandian. Maybe I'm just habituated to him falling short, but I think he's had his opportunities and the doors are closing. Not just because of his age, but with the rise of players like Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga. Not all would agree, but I'm also liking Nishikori and Simon! The point is the field is getting more competitive. I do enjoy watching his game and wish him the best, but there are just more interesting prospects out there.
 

edmondsm

Legend
Wasn't that when Federer had an ankle injury and was playing with taped feet?
I forgot about that, but Federer wasn't to hobbled, he beat Nalbandian in the round robin along with all his other opponents. Just looked it up, he double-bageled Gaudio in the semis, couldn't have been feeling that bad.
 

edmondsm

Legend
I don't like to count anyone out especially someone as talented as Nalbandian, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I think it's more likely to have one of the younger upcomers to win it before Nalbandian. Maybe I'm just habituated to him falling short, but I think he's had his opportunities and the doors are closing. Not just because of his age, but with the rise of players like Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga. Not all would agree, but I'm also liking Nishikori and Simon! The point is the field is getting more competitive. I do enjoy watching his game and wish him the best, but there are just more interesting prospects out there.
Boy it would be cool to see Nishikori have a break out tourney at the 2009 Aussie. As long as it doesn't curse him like it did Baghdatis and Tsonga.
 

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
Wasn't that when Federer had an ankle injury and was playing with taped feet?
Yes, RF was injured - ankle or foot.

He wouldn't have played the tournament if he wasn't 100%. Why would he risk injuring an ankle at at such a pivitol time in his career.
Why? Because he's a champion.

His movement seemed fine to me in the match.
Did you have a stopwatch on him?

I can't believe people rag on Nalbandian because he doesn't have rock hard abs. There are different body types. He has a 14-10 record in 5 set matches. Not bad by any means. Especially when you consider that he doesn't have a serve that gets him a lot of free points.
 

J-man

Hall of Fame
He has the talent but I don't think he has it to go for 2 weeks straight anymore. He seems to have it for a week (the master series events he goes deep in) but 2 weeks best out of 5. He won't be able to do it. Just look at what he has done for recently at slams
 

Alejandro D

Semi-Pro
Wasn't that when Federer had an ankle injury and was playing with taped feet?
There was nothing wrong with him. He played 5 sets, ran like crazy and after Nalbandian's insane sharp angled shots, started the 5th set loosing, came back in an awesome form and finally lost the tie break. David just played better then. Stop making stupid excuses for Federer, who, unlike his fans, takes his loses like a man.
 

thalivest

Banned
There was nothing wrong with him. He played 5 sets, ran like crazy and after Nalbandian's insane sharp angled shots, started the 5th set loosing, came back in an awesome form and finally lost the tie break. David just played better then. Stop making stupid excuses for Federer, who, unlike his fans, takes his loses like a man.
I am not a Federer fan, in fact I am one of the bigger Federer haters on this forum. However he definitely was injured and very restricted movement-wise in that match and that event in general, and I have a hard time believing anyone who watched would even dispute that. Running like crazy!?! LOL, are you blind. Considering Roger's very impaired physical condition at that event he did amazingly well to make the final and nearly win vs someone who was a quality opponent in the first place.
 

blackfrido

Hall of Fame
He has lots in him. Particularly in his belly.

Sorry edmondsm, couldn't resist :p

Real response: Possibly, but where Federer is declining other players are coming to the forefront and improving. So I don't think his chances are any better than last year or the year prior in 2006 when Federer was an unstoppable juggernaut at AO06. This could be an opportunity for Murray, Djokovic, and even possibly Nadal. Even Del Potro has shown that he is capable of beating Nalbanian. Perhaps in a grand slam where its 3 sets and alot more pressure is different, but I do think a number of players are rising to the occasion.
Who knows, maybe one of the 4 frenchmen (gasquet, simon, tsonga, or monfils) could knock Nalbandian out.
He does not look that bad here, this video was taken this year;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEZw4Xm4grw&feature=related
 

NamRanger

G.O.A.T.
I forgot about that, but Federer wasn't to hobbled, he beat Nalbandian in the round robin along with all his other opponents. Just looked it up, he double-bageled Gaudio in the semis, couldn't have been feeling that bad.

By set 3 Federer was noticeably slower. He was as slow as he is now.
 

Alejandro D

Semi-Pro
Federer was perfectly healthy during the 2005 MC. He beat Nalbandian
(round robin) by 63 26 64 and Ljubicic in probably the best season of his career 63 26 76; and Coria 60 16 62. Then, he double bageled Gaudio in the semifinals and lost only to Nalbandian by 67(4) 67(11) 62 61 76(3).
¿¿¿Injured and very restricted movement-wise in that match and that event in general??? LOL Come on, don't be stupid.
 

thalivest

Banned
Federer was perfectly healthy during the 2005 MC. He beat Nalbandian
(round robin) by 63 26 64 and Ljubicic in probably the best season of his career 63 26 76; and Coria 60 16 62. Then, he double bageled Gaudio in the semifinals and lost only to Nalbandian by 67(4) 67(11) 62 61 76(3).
¿¿¿Injured and very restricted movement-wise in that match and that event in general??? LOL Come on, don't be stupid.
So you think Federer would automatically have to be absolutely healthy and moving at 100% to beat Ivan freaking Ljubicic 7-6 in the 3rd set, and Coria in 3 sets on a fast indoor court, ROTFL!! You are the one being stupid. With Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, Safin, all out and Federer hobbled that years field was a joke for a year end event; only a less then 100% Federer, Nalbandian, and maybe Davydenko were anyone of substance. If anything that Federer was going 3 sets in all his round robin matches in that years shallow depleted field only would prove my point further. As for Gaudio, Gaudio in the semis of the year end event, heck even in the year end event at all, is a complete joke in the first place (unless it were ever played on clay). It is not like you have to be able to move vs Gaudio hitting his puffy clay court loopers right at you on a fast indoor court.
 
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thalivest

Banned
Wow, what a huge Federer hater you are!!! Now I get it, and I can picture you as a small, sad, petty, very little fraction of a man who resents successful people like Federer, Ljubicic or Nalbandian.
:rolleyes: I can picture you starting to froth at the mouth, hopefully they give you a rabies shot to keep people near you safe for the time being. You are a delusional and lovesick Nalbandian fanatic and I am done with you. My ignore list is your next destination. You are obviously just a bitter Argentine who cant stand that many people recognize Federer was injured and hobbled at that Masters Cup, whether they like Federer or not, for the simple truth that it is fact. Hearing that many people view your heroes greatest triumph that way cuts to your very soul so much that you cant even control yourself.

Ljubicic is so successful he is largely considered as the worst top 3 ranked player in history, and suffered the indignity of not being able to get past security without his ID while he was ranked #3 in the world.
 
Well, it's been less than a year since the AO of 08, so we can't say Tsonga's cursed yet. As for Baghdatis, it's his own fault he didn't improve his fitness.
 
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